Mel kiper Big Board

[coltsguy510]

As a refresher, this list represents the top 25 NFL prospects among seniors and other players who are eligible for next April's draft, based on where they stand entering the college football season.

Plenty will happen between now and next April, but it's a reasonably safe guess to say that of the top 10 guys on this first board of the college football season, about half should end up among the top 10 picks next April based on how it has worked out in years past. And we need to keep in mind that a few of the underclassmen listed here could return to school. Just look at the decisions of top quarterbacks in recent years and you know that has a big effect the picks in April. As always, juniors and draft-eligible sophomores are noted with an asterisk. Please consider the descriptions, which bring context into play. With the season upon us, let's begin the debate for the 2013 NFL draft.

1

Matt Barkley

AGE: 21

DOB: 9/8/90

HT: 6-2

WT: 224

*: QB

Comp 308

Att 446

Pct 69.1

Yds 3,528

TD 39

Int 7

He was a likely bet to be the No. 2 pick behind Andrew Luck last spring, but he's back for more. Won't wow evaluators with physical skills, but sound across the board; very good accuracy, poise, leadership skills and a ton of experience. Has improved every year, expanding his skill set.

2

Jarvis Jones *

AGE: 22

DOB: 10/13/89

HT: 6-3

WT: 241

*: OLB

Tkl 70

Sack 13.5

Int 0

A former USC Trojan, Jones is an explosive, relentless edge rusher for Georgia, and profiles as a 3-4 OLB. Jones has a quick first step and violent hands, tackles well, and closes fast. Could improve against the run, but people don't realize how well he can cover.

3

Barkevious Mingo *

AGE: 21

DOB: 10/4/90

HT: 6-5

WT: 242

*: DE

Tkl 46

Sack 7.0

Int 0

Exceptional length; still adding to his arsenal and his frame, but he's not merely an athlete with promise. Pass-rush skills are there, and he uses speed to get up the field and turn the corner. Still learning concepts after late start in football, but reads game well given lack of experience.

4

Logan Thomas *

AGE: 20

DOB: 7/1/91

HT: 6-6

WT: 262

*: QB

Comp 234

Att 391

Pct 59.8

Yds 3,013

TD 19

Int 10

Huge kid with elite arm strength, and still building his repertoire as a passer. But he's not raw. In fact, has very good mechanics. Can drive the ball downfield, but displays nice touch. Will look to improve on working through reads as he tries to settle in behind a young offensive line.

5

Sam Montgomery *

AGE: 21

DOB: 5/25/90

HT: 6-4

WT: 260

*: DE

Tkl 49

Sack 9.0

Int 0

Like Mingo, Montgomery doesn't quite have the size of a 4-3 DE at next level, but he's gotten closer, and his frame can handle it. Athleticism and pass-rush skills are there, and he really holds up against the run. Max-effort player, natural athlete, instinctive rusher. Still a lot of projection left.

6

Johnathan Hankins *

AGE: 21

DOB:

HT: 6-3

WT: 335

*: DT

Tkl 66

Sack 2.0

Int 0

Moves a lot better than his size implies. Often shows an explosive first step; drives opposing blockers into the backfield. Size says he's a nose tackle, but agile enough to be moved around. Very disruptive force on the line, and will draw double-teams all season.

7

David Amerson *

AGE: 20

DOB: 12/8/91

HT: 6-3

WT: 189

*: CB

Tkl 59

Sack 0

Int 13

Exceptional cover skills, with a sixth sense for when to improvise. Size and speed to match up with any receiver, so he can go up for the ball, but freelances effectively without getting burned. Led nation in INTs last year. Very competitive.

8

Chance Warmack

AGE: 21

DOB:

HT: 6-3

WT: 320

*: OG

GP 13

GS 13

Powerful drive blocker, but he isn't just a mountain of a human being; Warmack moves really well, with initial power plus the ability to seek out linebackers on the second level. Solid pass-blocker, able to lock up rushers.

9

Star Lotulelei

AGE: 22

DOB: 12/20/89

HT: 6-4

WT: 325

*: DT

Tkl 43

Sack 1.5

Int 0

Safest DT in class right now based on consistency. Demands double-teams, clogs up the middle of the field. A great sense for disrupting the run game, with power to bull rush. Explodes off the ball, with great upper-body strength.

10

Manti Te'o

AGE: 21

DOB: 1/26/91

HT: 6-2

WT: 255

*: LB

Tkl 128

Sack 5.0

Int 0

A certain first-rounder had he entered April's draft, back as the top interior linebacker in 2013 draft class. Developed in 2011, showing blitzing skills. Te'o is a big, strong, instinctive tackling presence in the middle of the field. Reads plays well and gets through traffic.

11

Justin Hunter *

AGE: 21

DOB: 5/20/91

HT: 6-4

WT: 205

*: WR

Rec 17

Yds 314

Avg 18.5

TD 2

Stats don't do him justice, as most of 2011 was wiped out by injury. Hunter has blazing straight-line speed, but uses good technique and gets in and out of breaks. Good hands, a major threat down the field. Great matchup with David Amerson on tap.

12

Luke Joeckel *

AGE: 21

DOB: 11/6/91

HT: 6-6

WT: 310

*: OT

GP 13

GS 13

Really experienced, he's started on the left since his freshman season. Joeckel is best in pass protection and doesn't get rattled by speed or secondary moves. Not an elite athlete, but he's a good technician; faces great pass-rushers this season.

13

Margus Hunt

AGE: 25

DOB: 7/14/87

HT: 6-5

WT: 288

*: DE

Tkl 28

Sack 3.0

Int 0

Above all else, Hunt is just a remarkable athlete. Born in Estonia, he's a late arrival to the game of football, but his athleticism jumps off the tape. High ceiling is there if he deepens arsenal and develops pass-rush skills.

14

Taylor Lewan *

AGE: 21

DOB: 7/21/91

HT: 6-8

WT: 302

*: OT

GP 13

GS 13

Michigan's best natural left tackle since Jake Long. Elite athleticism for the position; has great length and the ability to really move. Could get more credit for his power as a run-blocker; his long frame probably gets him typecast as a pass-blocker first.

15

Keenan Allen *

AGE: 20

DOB: 4/27/92

HT: 6-3

WT: 206

*: WR

Rec 98

Yds 1,343

Avg 13.7

TD 6

Recruited as a safety, too. Allen has strong hands; catches the ball with ease away from his body. Sets up defenders, sees the field well, settles in creases against zones. Not a total burner, but can sell short routes and break deep. Great run-after-catch skills.

16

Corey Lemonier *

AGE: 21

DOB: 2/19/91

HT: 6-4

WT: 250

*: DE

Tkl 47

Sack 9.5

Int 0

Still light for a defensive end prospect, Lemonier has the speed, but must hold up better against the run. He utilizes quickness as a pass-rusher, with great burst off the snap and a few counters. A natural pass-rusher, he'll be one to watch.

17

Xavier Rhodes *

AGE: 21

DOB: 6/19/90

HT: 6-2

WT: 209

*: CB

Tkl 43

Sack 0

Int 1

Didn't pile up interceptions last year, but wasn't challenged by opposing QBs. A starter since his freshman season, Rhodes has elite size, handles deep routes well, and can hang with smaller WRs. Can move up the board.

18

William Gholston *

AGE: 21

DOB: 7/31/91

HT: 6-7

WT: 280

*: DE

Tkl 70

Sack 5.0

Int 0

Great length and frame, with very good pass-rushing skills. Has legit size and skills to be a 4-3 DE at the next level. Experience shows; reads offenses well, knowing when to go wide or come inside against the run. Could be in line for a huge year.

19

Robert Woods *

AGE: 20

DOB: 4/10/92

HT: 6-1

WT: 185

*: WR

Rec 111

Yds 1,292

Avg 11.6

TD 15

Refined, quick and crafty, but don't discount his speed, as he'll beat teams over the top. Productive receiver with soft hands and will pick up yards after the catch. Uses space along sidelines and in the corners of the end zone like a pro. Has a second gear when needed.

20

Eric Reid *

AGE: 21

DOB: 12/10/91

HT: 6-2

WT: 212

*: S

Tkl 76

Sack 0

Int 2

Great instincts, and a sound tackler from the secondary. A safety who can cover but also play close to the line. Tied for team lead in tackles on a team that can really pursue the ball. Big hitter.

21

Kawann Short

AGE: 23

DOB: 2/2/89

HT: 6-3

WT: 312

*: DT

Tkl 54

Sack 6.5

Int 0

A very good athlete who, at his best, can control the line of scrimmage. Doesn't always show explosiveness, but uses his hands well to clear blocks and was constantly in the backfield. A better fit in a 4-3. Big question: Can he stay consistent?

22

Marcus Lattimore *

AGE: 20

DOB: 10/29/91

HT: 6-0

WT: 232

*: RB

Rush 163

Yds 818

Avg 5.0

TD 10

Will be watched closely and should carry slightly less of a load early as he comes back from an ACL tear. Should be full speed, however. Explosive, tightly packed player who packs a punch but moves better than a player his size should. Elite if healthy.

23

Justin Gilbert *

AGE: 21

DOB: 11/7/91

HT: 6-0

WT: 194

*: CB

Tkl 59

Sack 0

Int 5

Needs polish, but exceptional natural instincts for the position, with a high ceiling. A ball hawk, he attacks passes like the former wide receiver he is. One of the nation's top returners on special teams, has great suddenness as a cutter.

24

Tyler Eifert *

AGE: 21

DOB: 9/8/90

HT: 6-6

WT: 251

*: TE

Rec 63

Yds 803

Avg 12.7

TD 5

Will show off NFL pass-catching skills as the Irish split him out wide. Among new class of tight ends, Eifert is a former WR, catches the ball with ease and can stretch the seams, but he's not an exceptional blocker. Top TE in a class where several could emerge.

25

Tharold Simon *

AGE: 21

DOB: 3/6/91

HT: 6-3

WT: 187

*: CB

Tkl 42

Sack 0

Int 2

A big corner capable of matching up with big receivers. Expected to take over for the departed Morris Claiborne with little drop-off. Gets low and uses good feet and quickness to be clean out of breaks, but can go up and attack balls in the air. Another star on the way.

[coltsguy510]

I like Kipers opinion, so I think that we draft Warmack, Hunter, Hankins, or Lewan.

[Gavin]

Wow no Barrett Jones over guys like Justin Gilbert, Tharold Simon, Cory Lemonier, Margus Hunt (Granyed hes a great athlete but that still dont make ya polished football player)

[Gavin]

I like Kipers opinion as well but I will wait for Mayocks. It appears to me sometimes Kiper just gets into picking draft picks rather then studying them like Mayock to me

[coltsguy510]

Mcshay and Kiper both had very high opinions on Warmack. Mcshay said that he's the best OG prospect he's ever evaluated.

[Boiler_Colt]

Really can't go wrong with that much talent in the top 1/3. Seems to be a ton of 3-4 defensive talent too. Jones/Mingo/Montgomery, Lotulelei, Teo. Warmack and Hunter/Allen/Woods would all be good fits.

[NewColtsFan]

Mcshay and Kiper both had very high opinions on Warmack. Mcshay said that he's the best OG prospect he's ever evaluated.

I'm a big fan of both Kiper and McShay, even though they don't often agree. Both smart people. The see certain things differently. But when the see the same thing, then I think you have to sit-up and take notice. McShahy has Warmack top-5 and Kiper has him top-10.

For a guard it's unheard of.

The guy must be great. But always a note of caution. The listings from both Kiper and McShay will change repeatedly over the next 8 months. Some moves won't be big, and some will be huge. It's the nature of evaluating talent. Things change.

[The Peytonator]

I'm not a huge college football guy, but I like the size on those CBs they have listed.

Amerson - 6'3

Rhodes - 6'2

Simon - 6'3

We're gonna see a breakout in tall CBs. It's a lot easier for a 6'3 CB to go against a 6'5 WR, than a 5'10 one.....provided they have the necessary speed, agility, instincts, and ball skills.

[The Peytonator]

I'm a big fan of both Kiper and McShay, even though they don't often agree. Both smart people. The see certain things differently. But when the see the same thing, then I think you have to sit-up and take notice. McShahy has Warmack top-5 and Kiper has him top-10.

For a guard it's unheard of.

The guy must be great. But always a note of caution. The listings from both Kiper and McShay will change repeatedly over the next 8 months. Some moves won't be big, and some will be huge. It's the nature of evaluating talent. Things change.

I seem to recall hearing similar analysis on DeCastro, although he dropped down to the Steelers. Maybe he wasn't quite as good as people had projected him. Last I looked, he wasn't the starting RG for Pittsburgh....I know he was injured though. I probably wouldn't be a big fan of drafting a Guard with a top 10 pick if that's where we're drafting. I'd rather get a big, nasty OT later and convert him.

[NewColtsFan]

I seem to recall hearing similar analysis on DeCastro, although he dropped down to the Steelers. Maybe he wasn't quite as good as people had projected him. Last I looked, he wasn't the starting RG for Pittsburgh....I know he was injured though. I probably wouldn't be a big fan of drafting a Guard with a top 10 pick if that's where we're drafting. I'd rather get a big, nasty OT later and convert him.

DeCastro was doing good, but not great for Pittsburgh when he got hurt. Not a big surprise, rookie OL rarely look great from day one. But, David was doing much better than their 2nd R pick, OT Mike Adams from Ohio State who has been struggling badly. Either way, he's hurt and likely done for the year.

DeCastro was indeed highly ranked but teams won't use a high pick on a guard. They think they can take a lesser tackle and move him inside. And this guard, Warmack, as good as he is, is said to be 6'3" and 320. No chance of him playing anywhere else. I can say with confidence he won't go in the top-5, and maybe not even in the top-10. I'd be surprised if it he went that high.

I hope he is as good as advertised. I'd like to see it with my own eyes. And then I'd like to see a team take him in the top-10.

That'll be something!

By the way, there are some great DeCastro stories from his Stanford days..... he's as tough as they come!

[The Peytonator]

DeCastro was doing good, but not great for Pittsburgh when he got hurt. Not a big surprise, rookie OL rarely look great from day one. But, David was doing much better than their 2nd R pick, OT Mike Adams from Ohio State who has been struggling badly. Either way, he's hurt and likely done for the year.

DeCastro was indeed highly ranked but teams won't use a high pick on a guard. They think they can take a lesser tackle and move him inside. And this guard, Warmack, as good as he is, is said to be 6'3" and 320. No chance of him playing anywhere else. I can say with confidence he won't go in the top-5, and maybe not even in the top-10. I'd be surprised if it he went that high.

I hope he is as good as advertised. I'd like to see it with my own eyes. And then I'd like to see a team take him in the top-10.

That'll be something!

By the way, there are some great DeCastro stories from his Stanford days..... he's as tough as they come!

Yeah, I figured he was done for the year, I really liked the guy in my pre-draft, armchair scouting lol. When the first round got into the 20's and he hadn't been picked, I started thinking there might be a chance we get him round 2.

Right Guard is the biggest need on the offensive side for this team, but I feel Luck can make do just fine with even the most patchwork of Olines. He can't make our front 7 stuff the run, or our corners stick with WRs, so I'm hoping we go heavy defensively next draft.....although we should be able to afford some nice FAs too.

[coltsguy510]

If we have a top ten pick and he is as good as advertised and then we can trade down and get him!! That would be AWESOME!!!!!!!

[haseo15]

Yeah, I figured he was done for the year, I really liked the guy in my pre-draft, armchair scouting lol. When the first round got into the 20's and he hadn't been picked, I started thinking there might be a chance we get him round 2.

Right Guard is the biggest need on the offensive side for this team, but I feel Luck can make do just fine with even the most patchwork of Olines. He can't make our front 7 stuff the run, or our corners stick with WRs, so I'm hoping we go heavy defensively next draft.....although we should be able to afford some nice FAs too.

DeCastro is actually only going to miss about half a season, the just created the new Ir rule which helps him out a lot. He was owning people on his pull blocks and run game, was getting better in pass protection, hope he can come back and show the potential in he has.

[haseo15]

On a side note, my top 3 choices are:

1. Amerson

2. Jones,

3. Te'o

[Mameluc]

looks like there will be ton of D talent, and lots of pass rushers... there should be a pass rusher in the second round but sadly we dont have one. thats the only bad thing of the whole vontae trade, but hopefully we can trade down to get back a 2nd.

i hope we go interior DLINE with our 1st and then ILB/OLB with our 2nd if we get it back.

[Moncrief]

Now if only we had 3 top 10 picks then we would be set

[coltsguy510]

In this scenario we trade down to ten and have our compensatory picks.

1. Chance Warmack OG Alabama (Mauler!!! Beast!!! OG of the future for us!!)

2. Aaron Dobson WR Marshall (Big, Athletic WR, Future #1)

3. Brennan Williams OT UNC (Atheltic, Big OT, Could play opposite Castonzo!!)

4. Kwame Geathers NT Georgia (Mountain of A man!!)

5. Joe Kruger DE Utah

6. Ray Ray Armstrong S Faulkner University

7. Nathan Williams OLB OSU

[danlhart87]

Pending their spot in the draft the Colts should trade down and get Jackson Jeffcoat. That of course depends on their spot. If you are at 20 then just get Jeffcoat.

[funktacious2]

Like Kiper, prefer Mayock.

[funktacious2]

Wish List as of right now

1. Jones

2. Warmack

3. Amerson

4. Teo

[Gavin]

My draft scenario

Colts go 5-11 get the 6th pick in the draft, Trade down to pick 22 and pick up a 2nd and a 5th in the process

1.Barrett Jones G/C/T

2.D.J. Fluker/Chris Faulk OT

3.Devin Taylor

4.Kwame Geathers

5.Joe Vellano

6.Devonte Holloman

7.Conner Vernon

[BOTT]

Pending their spot in the draft the Colts should trade down and get Jackson Jeffcoat. That of course depends on their spot. If you are at 20 then just get Jeffcoat.

think i heard mcshay say he is convinced jeffcoat will be a top 5 pick by the time the draft rolls around.....not that he hasn't been wrong

[chad72]

I am just going to safely assume that we win enough games to pick No.10 in the draft.

Round 1 No.10 - Get our No.1 wideout for the future - Robert Woods, I think he is rated lower by Mel Kiper than how good he is. All quality wideouts will be gone, so I think we should go WR with our first pick since we wont want to overpay in free agency for skill positions and Grigson was part of Eagles scouting crew that drafted DJax in round 2 and Jeremy Maclin in round 1. So, I am expecting wideout if we are anywhere in the 8-15 range.

Round 2 No.10 - Traded for Vontae Davis

Round 3 No.10 - One of the mammoth Georgia NTs - Jonathan Jenkins (6'3", 351) or Kwame Geathers (6'6", 350)

Round 4 No.10 - Gabe Jackson, 6'4", 320, OG, Mississipi State, did run blocking for Vick Ballard

[chad72]

I am just going to safely assume that we win enough games to pick No.10 in the draft.

Round 1 No.10 - Get our No.1 wideout for the future - Robert Woods, I think he is rated lower by Mel Kiper than how good he is. All quality wideouts will be gone, so I think we should go WR with our first pick since we wont want to overpay in free agency for skill positions and Grigson was part of Eagles scouting crew that drafted DJax in round 2 and Jeremy Maclin in round 1. So, I am expecting wideout if we are anywhere in the 8-15 range.

Round 2 No.10 - Traded for Vontae Davis

Round 3 No.10 - One of the mammoth Georgia NTs - Jonathan Jenkins (6'3", 351) or Kwame Geathers (6'6", 350)

Round 4 No.10 - Gabe Jackson, 6'4", 320, OG, Mississipi State, did run blocking for Vick Ballard

I forgot to mention a major assumption that Keenan Allen was not going to be available.

DJax is from Cal., right??? If Keenan Allen is there at No.10 for us, I doubt Grigson passes on him. The WR class is top heavy and if we want to groom someone behind Wayne, we need to draft him in 2013, IMO.

OG/OT/DT - we can get those in free agency if we need to. Skill positions - best bang for the buck is in the draft.

[coltsguy510]

Warmack moved up to 6 and Hankins moved up to 5. John Jenkins, NT out of UGA, moved into the top 25 at number 18. Lotuleilei moved up to 7 and Lemonier moved up to 11.

[NewColtsFan]

My draft scenario

Colts go 5-11 get the 6th pick in the draft, Trade down to pick 22 and pick up a 2nd and a 5th in the process

1.Barrett Jones G/C/T

2.D.J. Fluker/Chris Faulk OT

3.Devin Taylor

4.Kwame Geathers

5.Joe Vellano

6.Devonte Holloman

7.Conner Vernon

If you want to trade down from 6 to 22 -- and I'm likely OK with that -- I wouldn't do it in one trade, unless one team is willing to badly overpay. The way that Atlanta did to move way up and take Julio Jones. They paid a LOT more than a 2 and a 5.

In fact, I think they paid 5 picks spread out over 2 years.

But, short of that, I'd trade down that far, just do it over 2 trades. Trade for 6 to 14 and then a 2nd time to 22. These are rough numbers of course.... you have to have trade partners for this to happen.

But if we're going to trade down and I'm thinking more and more that's what we'll do, then we have to MAXIMIZE the opportunity. Get the most BANG for our buck. We need a bunch of picks and then hit big with them the way we appeared to have done with the 2012 draft.

The exception to doing this is if we've fallen in love with someone who is available at #6 (or wherever we pick) and don't want to trade down. Then, you're going to have a big decision to make if you're Ryan Grigson. And that's why he makes the Big Bucks, because that'll be a decision that will take big stones to make.

[Gavin]

If you want to trade down from 6 to 22 -- and I'm likely OK with that -- I wouldn't do it in one trade, unless one team is willing to badly overpay. The way that Atlanta did to move way up and take Julio Jones. They paid a LOT more than a 2 and a 5.

In fact, I think they paid 5 picks spread out over 2 years.

But, short of that, I'd trade down that far, just do it over 2 trades. Trade for 6 to 14 and then a 2nd time to 22. These are rough numbers of course.... you have to have trade partners for this to happen.

But if we're going to trade down and I'm thinking more and more that's what we'll do, then we have to MAXIMIZE the opportunity. Get the most BANG for our buck. We need a bunch of picks and then hit big with them the way we appeared to have done with the 2012 draft.

The exception to doing this is if we've fallen in love with someone who is available at #6 (or wherever we pick) and don't want to trade down. Then, you're going to have a big decision to make if you're Ryan Grigson. And that's why he makes the Big Bucks, because that'll be a decision that will take big stones to make.

good idea