If we win out (updated)

[craigerb]

If we win out (11 – 6), we still need help:

Titans lose 3 games (we win division)
or
three of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Ravens lose 4 games or Bengals lose 3 games.
3. Raiders lose another game
4. Chargers lose 2 games

5. Broncos lose 2 games.
 

 

 

[nfatta]

So I was messing around on this website 2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight It basically says if we win out we're in regardless of what happens. Not sure how accurate it is.

[csmopar]

4 hours ago, craigerb said:

If we win out (11 – 6), we still need help:

Titans lose 3 games (we win division)
or
three of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Ravens lose 4 games or Bengals lose 3 games.
3. Raiders lose another game
4. Chargers lose 2 games

5. Broncos lose 2 games.
 

 

 

Gotta wonder what the odds of 3!! Of those 5 happening are

[Goatface Killah]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Gotta wonder what the odds of 3!! Of those 5 happening are

Well there are many more scenarios than the ones listed.

 

For starters, number 1 is a gurantee to happen if we win out. The Bills and the Pats have 2 head to heads left on the schedule, so either the Bills lose 2 or the Pats lose the 1 additional game. No matter what happens, that is a given. We would also hold the tiebreaker over both teams due to head to head.

 

As for the rest of it, there are a bunch of games that are guaranteed to help us no matter who wins, and a handful of others that are very likely to help us.

 

12-5 Bengals vs. Chargers*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

12-6 Bills vs. *

 

12-12 Raiders vs. Chiefs*

 

12-16 Chiefs vs. Chargers*

 

12-19 Bengals vs. Broncos*

 

12-26 Raiders vs. Broncos*; Bengals vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Bills*

 

1-2 Broncos vs. Chargers*; Bengals vs. Chiefs*

 

1-9 Chargers vs. Raiders*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

 

I mean you can just tell by looking at those games left on the schedule that there is no way at least 2 more of those things DON'T happen.

 

And most likely, the Chiefs will do most of the heavy lifting for us.

 

I put a star next to the games that are guaranteed to help us by giving one of the teams on the list a loss. 

 

#1 is a given, as already laid out.

 

#3 is also a given. Because for the Raiders to win the rest of their games that means #'s 4 & 5 are down to 1 loss needed for each team to ensure we finish ahead. So what are the odds that both those teams win all the other games left on their schedules? Especially considering they play each other on Jan 2nd?   0%.

 

So thats 2 of the 3 right there.

 

The Bengals also have games left against the Chargers, Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs. Id say there is at least a descent chance they lose 3 more games. And even if they dont, they likely beat the Chargers or the Broncos to prevent that and give us our much needed 3rd shoe to fall.

 

But even if that 3rd shoe doesnt fall, there is likely another way. 

 

You could also look at the Chiefs schedule and see that either they end of the season on fire and give us all the help we need, or they stumble, lose the division and likely fall below us in the standings as I believe we would also have the tie breaker on them with only 3 conference losses.

 

And, in fact if we win out we are gonna have the tie breaker on all of these teams due to conference record if I am not mistaken.

 

I actually think 4 of those things happen. I think we finish ahead of the Chargers, Broncos, Raiders AND Pats.......IF we win out of course. And I will be optimistic and believe we will.

 

I think it will ultimately be.....

 

Ravens

Chiefs

Patriots

Titans

Colts

Bengals

Chargers

 

......in that order.

 

 

[rockywoj]

I honestly do not see us winning out.

[Fluke_33]

I think someone else posted if we win 4 and 2 of them are against the pats and raiders we have a 90% chance.  I’ll take that

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If we win out we are in. Because we play raiders and pats and all these trams play each other we are guaranteed help.

[MarylandTerrapin]

We needed to split against the Bills and Bucs, we did and won the more important game of the two.  I still stand by 10-7 getting us in as long as our 7th loss is against the Cardinals.  First things first though, let's beat Houston.    

 

1 hour ago, GoatBeard said:

And most likely, the Chiefs will do most of the heavy lifting for us.

 

This^

 

If KC can run the table, it sets us up nicely to get in at 10-7. 

[IrsaysArmy]

7 hours ago, craigerb said:

If we win out (11 – 6), we still need help:

Titans lose 3 games (we win division)
or
three of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Ravens lose 4 games or Bengals lose 3 games.
3. Raiders lose another game
4. Chargers lose 2 games

5. Broncos lose 2 games.
 

 

 

If we get to 11-6 we will almost 100% be in the playoffs, maybe even divisional winners. I don’t know who the Titans are going to beat, they’re are very banged up.

[IrsaysArmy]

1 hour ago, GoatBeard said:

Well there are many more scenarios than the ones listed.

 

For starters, number 1 is a gurantee to happen if we win out. The Bills and the Pats have 2 head to heads left on the schedule, so either the Bills lose 2 or the Pats lose the 1 additional game. No matter what happens, that is a given. We would also hold the tiebreaker over both teams due to head to head.

 

As for the rest of it, there are a bunch of games that are guaranteed to help us no matter who wins, and a handful of others that are very likely to help us.

 

12-5 Bengals vs. Chargers*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

12-6 Bills vs. *

 

12-12 Raiders vs. Chiefs*

 

12-16 Chiefs vs. Chargers*

 

12-19 Bengals vs. Broncos*

 

12-26 Raiders vs. Broncos*; Bengals vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Bills*

 

1-2 Broncos vs. Chargers*; Bengals vs. Chiefs*

 

1-9 Chargers vs. Raiders*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

 

I mean you can just tell by looking at those games left on the schedule that there is no way at least 2 more of those things DON'T happen.

 

And most likely, the Chiefs will do most of the heavy lifting for us.

 

I put a star next to the games that are guaranteed to help us by giving one of the teams on the list a loss. 

 

#1 is a given, as already laid out.

 

#3 is also a given. Because for the Raiders to win the rest of their games that means #'s 4 & 5 are down to 1 loss needed for each team to ensure we finish ahead. So what are the odds that both those teams win all the other games left on their schedules? Especially considering they play each other on Jan 2nd?   0%.

 

So thats 2 of the 3 right there.

 

The Bengals also have games left against the Chargers, Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs. Id say there is at least a descent chance they lose 3 more games. And even if they dont, they likely beat the Chargers or the Broncos to prevent that and give us our much needed 3rd shoe to fall.

 

But even if that 3rd shoe doesnt fall, there is likely another way. 

 

You could also look at the Chiefs schedule and see that either they end of the season on fire and give us all the help we need, or they stumble, lose the division and likely fall below us in the standings as I believe we would also have the tie breaker on them with only 3 conference losses.

 

And, in fact if we win out we are gonna have the tie breaker on all of these teams due to conference record if I am not mistaken.

 

I actually think 4 of those things happen. I think we finish ahead of the Chargers, Broncos, Raiders AND Pats.......IF we win out of course. And I will be optimistic and believe we will.

 

I think it will ultimately be.....

 

Ravens

Chiefs

Patriots

Titans

Colts

Bengals

Chargers

 

......in that order.

 

 

Colts-Titans wildcard game would be juicy

[csmopar]

3 hours ago, IrsaysArmy said:

Colts-Titans wildcard game would be juicy

Really the colts and Titans are mirrors of each other. Both teams need a stud RB to win. If they don’t get Henry back by January, I don’t see them going far 

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, GoatBeard said:

Well there are many more scenarios than the ones listed.

 

For starters, number 1 is a gurantee to happen if we win out. The Bills and the Pats have 2 head to heads left on the schedule, so either the Bills lose 2 or the Pats lose the 1 additional game. No matter what happens, that is a given. We would also hold the tiebreaker over both teams due to head to head.

 

As for the rest of it, there are a bunch of games that are guaranteed to help us no matter who wins, and a handful of others that are very likely to help us.

 

12-5 Bengals vs. Chargers*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

12-6 Bills vs. *

 

12-12 Raiders vs. Chiefs*

 

12-16 Chiefs vs. Chargers*

 

12-19 Bengals vs. Broncos*

 

12-26 Raiders vs. Broncos*; Bengals vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Bills*

 

1-2 Broncos vs. Chargers*; Bengals vs. Chiefs*

 

1-9 Chargers vs. Raiders*; Broncos vs. Chiefs*

 

 

I mean you can just tell by looking at those games left on the schedule that there is no way at least 2 more of those things DON'T happen.

 

And most likely, the Chiefs will do most of the heavy lifting for us.

 

I put a star next to the games that are guaranteed to help us by giving one of the teams on the list a loss. 

 

#1 is a given, as already laid out.

 

#3 is also a given. Because for the Raiders to win the rest of their games that means #'s 4 & 5 are down to 1 loss needed for each team to ensure we finish ahead. So what are the odds that both those teams win all the other games left on their schedules? Especially considering they play each other on Jan 2nd?   0%.

 

So thats 2 of the 3 right there.

 

The Bengals also have games left against the Chargers, Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs. Id say there is at least a descent chance they lose 3 more games. And even if they dont, they likely beat the Chargers or the Broncos to prevent that and give us our much needed 3rd shoe to fall.

 

But even if that 3rd shoe doesnt fall, there is likely another way. 

 

You could also look at the Chiefs schedule and see that either they end of the season on fire and give us all the help we need, or they stumble, lose the division and likely fall below us in the standings as I believe we would also have the tie breaker on them with only 3 conference losses.

 

And, in fact if we win out we are gonna have the tie breaker on all of these teams due to conference record if I am not mistaken.

 

I actually think 4 of those things happen. I think we finish ahead of the Chargers, Broncos, Raiders AND Pats.......IF we win out of course. And I will be optimistic and believe we will.

 

I think it will ultimately be.....

 

Ravens

Chiefs

Patriots

Titans

Colts

Bengals

Chargers

 

......in that order.

 

 

Thanks!!! 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Like I posted on another thread, we need the 

Pats to win their division

 

Chiefs to win their division

 

Ravens to win their division is what I meant, @craigerbreally thought I thought the

Ravens was in our division, when I typed in Ravens win "our division" it was a dumb typo on another thread. I have been to so many games regarding our division that involved the Texans, Jags, and Titans over my time since 2002 - I know who is in our division.

 

Titans win our division just because it is going to happen.

 

Then we need to go 10-7 with wins over the at Texans, Pats, Raiders, and at Jags. We do that, we should get most breakers even if we lose at Cards. Looking at every teams schedule, these teams will beat each other = Bills, Pats, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Broncos, and if we beat the Raiders we will own that tiebreaker. We already own the tiebreaker over the Bills.

 

 

[Goatface Killah]

3 hours ago, IrsaysArmy said:

Colts-Titans wildcard game would be juicy

Thats why I believe it will work out that way. It reminds me of Franks first year with Luck. Slow start, strong finish, taking down our division champ on the road......its a pretty sweet deal.

 

They are the team I would want to play more than any other in a wildcard game. We need to avenge that loss.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, GoatBeard said:

Thats why I believe it will work out that way. It reminds me of Franks first year with Luck. Slow start, strong finish, taking down our division champ on the road......its a pretty sweet deal.

 

They are the team I would want to play more than any other in a wildcard game. We need to avenge that loss.

Yep, that is what I want because I think we would beat them, I also think we would beat the Ravens as well in a wildcard situation. We blew both those games, it won't happen again.

[Goatface Killah]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Like I posted on another thread, we need the 

Pats to win their division

 

Chiefs to win their division

 

Ravens to win their division is what I meant, @craigerbreally thought I thought the

Ravens was in our division, when I typed in Ravens win "our division" it was a dumb typo on another thread. I have been to so many games regarding our division that involved the Texans, Jags, and Titans over my time since 2002 - I know who is in our division.

 

Titans win our division just because it is going to happen.

 

Then we need to go 10-7 with wins over the at Texans, Pats, Raiders, and at Jags. We do that, we should get most breakers even if lose at Cards. Looking at every teams schedule, these teams will beat each other = Bills, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Broncos, and if we beat the Raiders we will own that tiebreaker. We already own the tiebreaker over the Bills.

 

 

Yeah, the fact that all 4 AFCW teams are in the mix right now, will ultimately be our saving grace. IF we take care of our business.

 

They have a lot of things to settle amongst each other these last 6 weeks.

[Goatface Killah]

4 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

I think someone else posted if we win 4 and 2 of them are against the pats and raiders we have a 90% chance.  I’ll take that

Thats probably true. 

 

Im sure there are plenty of scenarios in which the Colts dont make it, but virtually all of them are gonna require us to lose atleast 1 more conference game. 

 

And thats absolutely possible. The Cols need to control their destiny here and put together their best 5 weeks stretch of the season. Its definitely not a gimme either.

[Superman]

10 hours ago, nfatta said:

So I was messing around on this website 2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight It basically says if we win out we're in regardless of what happens. Not sure how accurate it is.

 

Same, if we win out, I don't see a scenario where we don't make it. We can even lose to the Cardinals and still make it, although we'll need more help.

 

Really need to beat the Raiders and Pats, though. The tie breakers could go against us if we lose to either of them, depending on a lot of other factors.

[Fisticuffs111]

I think we can beat any of these teams, just don’t think we’ll beat all of ‘em. Too many games where one side of the ball no shows a half.

 

But yeah, if we win out I don’t see any way we don’t get in.

[Stephen]

Patriots game will be tough and jags game. Honestly this team can't underestimate anyone

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Patriots game will be tough and jags game. Honestly this team can't underestimate anyone

Having to play jags to get in the playoffs when we know how much we struggle down there makes me ill to think about. Hopefully if we are lucky we can win the next 4 games and that game won’t matter.

[Thunderbolt]

To win out, the chances are slim and none. But any given Sunday strangest things can happen. 

[Stephen]

34 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Having to play jags to get in the playoffs when we know how much we struggle down there makes me ill to think about. Hopefully if we are lucky we can win the next 4 games and that game won’t matter.

Im sure the jags would love to keep us home