Capologist Thread (Salary Cap questions/answers)

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

When I casually looked through this, I thought NLTBE was a band like New Kids On The Block or something like that.  

 

Can you do the NLTBE with Covid opt outs? Or is that prohibited?

 

Good question. I don't know. If NLTBE is based on the previous league year, that would be an option. If it's based on the player's last year played, then no. 

 

Also, any player who opted out was likely under contract, right? If you're a free agent, you just don't sign, no need to opt out. So the players who were under contract but opted out are just coming back under the terms of their existing contracts.

[w87r]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth....

 

We’ve all been operating on a roughly 67-68 mill for the Colts until the Wentz trade.   But the other day ESPN had us with a new number I’ve never seen before...   $72.4m

 

I don’t know where this comes from?   Any idea?

 

Also...   while I have you, how did the Wentz deal take us from upper 60’s to $49?   Can you explain?  

 

 

Well we were setting around $67-68 for a while. It has bounced all over with projected caps adjusting. Now with $4-$5m more on minimal floor it takes that number around that ESPN number you posted.

 

The $49m is really actually $48.something mil based on new floor. Just rounded up a little.

 

Wentz $25.4m - $780k(Milligan dropping off of top 51) $24.6m off cap space.

 

 

$72.4m -$24.6m = $47.8

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/2021/

 

Spotrac has us at $48.8 now based in $180m floor.(they have $185m listed, so I subtracted $5m from their total)

 

 

For what its worth over the cap has Colts at $43.6m.

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/indianapolis-colts/

 

 

So there are discrepancies out there still.

[NewColtsFan]

21 minutes ago, w87r said:

Well we were setting around $67-68 for a while. It has bounced all over with projected caps adjusting. Now with $4-$5m more on minimal floor it takes that number around that ESPN number you posted.

 

The $49m is really actually $48.something mil based on new floor. Just rounded up a little.

 

Wentz $25.4m - $780k(Milligan dropping off of top 51) $24.6m off cap space.

 

 

$72.4m -$24.6m = $47.8

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/2021/

 

Spotrac has us at $48.8 now based in $180m floor.(they have $185m listed, so I subtracted $5m from their total)

 

 

For what its worth over the cap has Colts at $43.6m.

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/indianapolis-colts/

 

 

So there are discrepancies out there still.

Boom!   This was the kind of detailed post I was hoping for.   Even a * like me can do that rough math! 
 

Carrying this a bit further...   knowing we’re not going to spend every last Nickel we have...   we might leave $3-5 mill in reserve...     so we’re still going to spend roughly $40+ million, does this change your view of our off-season at all?   Our approach?   Our targets?

 

I can feel a new off-seadon predictions from you coming in!    Am I right?   Inquiring minds!

 

[w87r]

There is a $5m difference from OVC and Spotrac trying to look into why.

 

 

Initially I see:

Leonard:

OVC - $4.26m

SPT - $2.3m

 

$1.9m difference

 

Smith:

OVC - $3.26m

SPT - $2.29m

 

Nearly $1m difference

 

Hines:

OVC - $2.34m

SPT - $1.01m

 

$1.33m difference

 

 

There is $4.2m right there and I would say I lean toward Spotrac numbers being closer to what they are.?

 

What do you think @Superman

 

@NewColtsFan

 

Posted a little deeper dive into some discrepancies.

 

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Boom!   Thus was the kind of detailed post I was hoping for.   Even a * like me can do that rough math! 
 

Carrying this a but further...   knowing we’re not going to spend every last Nicole we have...   we might leave $3-5 mill on reserve...     so we’re still going to spend roughly $40+ million, does this change your view of our off-season at all?   Our approach?   Our targets?

 

I can feel a new off-seadon predictions from you coming in!    Am I right?   Inquiring minds!

 

Yeah I imagine we would keep $5-$8m on space at minimum. Leaving around $40m to spend.

 

However I am still on the Kelly Restructure saving the $6.75m this year and also on the Doyle trade(if we plan to bring in a higher profile TE) saving us that other $4.35m. That wpuld be to much money wrapped up in TE's, IMO.

 

Pushing us to $51m to still be able to spend while saving the listed amount above.

 

I imagine I will do a new mock offseason with Wentz in play here pretty shorty.

[Superman]

6 hours ago, w87r said:

There is a $5m difference from OVC and Spotrac trying to look into why.

 

 

Initially I see:

Leonard:

OVC - $4.26m

SPT - $2.3m

 

$1.9m difference

 

Smith:

OVC - $3.26m

SPT - $2.29m

 

Nearly $1m difference

 

Hines:

OVC - $2.34m

SPT - $1.01m

 

$1.33m difference

 

 

There is $4.2m right there and I would say I lean toward Spotrac numbers being closer to what they are.?

 

What do you think @Superman

 

@NewColtsFan

 

Posted a little deeper dive into some discrepancies.

 

 

Probably the Proven Performance Escalators being accounted for on OTC, but not Spotrac. These are bonuses for players drafted outside of the first round who reach certain benchmarks in their first three seasons. Leonard, Smith and Hines all likely qualify for some level of PPE in 2021. So I would say OTC is correct, not Spotrac. I think these will be calculated and reported by the NFL at some point before the new league year starts.

 

https://overthecap.com/proven-performance-escalator/

https://frontofficenfl.com/2020/06/04/2020-nfl-cba-explained-proven-performance-escalator-ppe-in-rookie-contracts/

[Fluke_33]

Bill Polian has a podcast that goes into the details of maneuvering the cap and other offseason challenges. It may be rudimentary for some of you but i found it interesting.

 

One thing that stood out was who to send in for negotiations.  Make sure to not denigrate the player in negotiations because that will get back to the locker room and cause dissention.  Pretty interesting

 

‎https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/inside-football-podcast-with-bill-polian/id1510749403

 

[Superman]

On 2/22/2021 at 7:26 AM, Fluke_33 said:

Bill Polian has a podcast that goes into the details of maneuvering the cap and other offseason challenges. It may be rudimentary for some of you but i found it interesting.

 

One thing that stood out was who to send in for negotiations.  Make sure to not denigrate the player in negotiations because that will get back to the locker room and cause dissention.  Pretty interesting

 

‎https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/inside-football-podcast-with-bill-polian/id1510749403

 

 

I disagree with Bill Polian on a lot of things, but there's no question that guy knows how to run a football operation.

[WL2Colt]

Question:  New Orleans announced today (3/6) that they are doing more restructuring of contracts.  Are they merely "kicking the can down the road" or doing something more substantial to manage their cap?  That is, are there negative consequences to doing a lot of restructuring?  Thanks for answering, anyone.  

[Superman]

7 hours ago, WL2Colt said:

Question:  New Orleans announced today (3/6) that they are doing more restructuring of contracts.  Are they merely "kicking the can down the road" or doing something more substantial to manage their cap?  That is, are there negative consequences to doing a lot of restructuring?  Thanks for answering, anyone.  

 

They are likely kicking the can down the road, and the negative consequence is higher cap numbers for those players in future seasons, and greater cap penalties to move on from those players in future seasons. The thing is there's no much else they can do. they're set to be nearly $70m over the cap in 2021, and other than these restructures, they would not be able to get under the cap by the start of the new league year. They would have to cut or trade all of their highly paid players.

[w87r]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

They are likely kicking the can down the road, and the negative consequence is higher cap numbers for those players in future seasons, and greater cap penalties to move on from those players in future seasons. The thing is there's no much else they can do. they're set to be nearly $70m over the cap in 2021, and other than these restructures, they would not be able to get under the cap by the start of the new league year. They would have to cut or trade all of their highly paid players.

Just to add a little to this.

 

 

11 hours ago, WL2Colt said:

are there negative consequences to doing a lot of restructuring? 

These are the negative consequences, you end up in bad salary cap shape and have to release/trade key players or restructure and continue to further damage your future cap space situation to get out of it.

 

Sometimes it pays off with SB title, most times it doesn't.

[Zoltan]

Looks like the cap has been set at 182.5 million

[harrisoncolts88]

So I do have some questions here and I promise I'm not coming at this as trying to be the bearer of bad news. But over the past weeks I've been reading comments up here, played the GM thread, and have read a lot of articles on possible free agents and what they may be worth.

 

And in doing that, know that the Colts have something like 46.7M. And after seeing the draft pool selections, which may very well increase because of Ballard's propensity to trade and collect picks. After you remove the small earning for draft selections, it ends up being like ~4M. And then we all know that the Colts will carry like 5-8M for during the season signings and whatnot. So now we are already up to 9-12M off the books right there.

 

Then there are the RFA and ERFA signing that I truly believe the Colts will make. I will go ahead and just negate the ERFA signings because they are so low that they will just replace the others near the 51 cap line. But the RFA's like Odum, Cox, and Pascal, I believe all of them will at the minimum get the 2.xM. And who knows maybe they are extended instead, which I would like to think they would still at minimum get 2M+ a year. So now we are talking another 5-6M (when other top 51 cap peeps are removed). So now before free agency truly begins, we are at 14-18M off that 46.7. So we could have anywhere between 28.7-32.7 when it's time for the real fun.

 

With that being said, first of all, am I looking at this all wrong? And secondly, how much actual free agency spree are we realllly looking at here? With people wanting to re-sign Houston, Rhodes, Carrie, Autry, etc and the possible splurging on a DE, WR, a TE, etc, there doesn't appear to be enough to actually do all that. And factor that next year (which I know it's future talk) having to extend Leonard, Smith, Hines and possibly Turray, Lewis, Wilkins.

[DaColts85]

3 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

So I do have some questions here and I promise I'm not coming at this as trying to be the bearer of bad news. But over the past weeks I've been reading comments up here, played the GM thread, and have read a lot of articles on possible free agents and what they may be worth.

 

And in doing that, know that the Colts have something like 46.7M. And after seeing the draft pool selections, which may very well increase because of Ballard's propensity to trade and collect picks. After you remove the small earning for draft selections, it ends up being like ~4M. And then we all know that the Colts will carry like 5-8M for during the season signings and whatnot. So now we are already up to 9-12M off the books right there.

 

Then there are the RFA and ERFA signing that I truly believe the Colts will make. I will go ahead and just negate the ERFA signings because they are so low that they will just replace the others near the 51 cap line. But the RFA's like Odum, Cox, and Pascal, I believe all of them will at the minimum get the 2.xM. And who knows maybe they are extended instead, which I would like to think they would still at minimum get 2M+ a year. So now we are talking another 5-6M (when other top 51 cap peeps are removed). So now before free agency truly begins, we are at 14-18M off that 46.7. So we could have anywhere between 28.7-32.7 when it's time for the real fun.

 

With that being said, first of all, am I looking at this all wrong? And secondly, how much actual free agency spree are we realllly looking at here? With people wanting to re-sign Houston, Rhodes, Carrie, Autry, etc and the possible splurging on a DE, WR, a TE, etc, there doesn't appear to be enough to actually do all that. And factor that next year (which I know it's future talk) having to extend Leonard, Smith, Hines and possibly Turray, Lewis, Wilkins.

Your thoughts are correct. We more than likely will use the draft to fill key spots. We almost always have the most rookies playing each year and I see that happening again. LT, DE, CB are key spots that I can see rookies playing early if not starting. We can still restructure a few contracts but I feel like it would have been done by now. Still it’s an option to free up some cash. Buckner alone can be re-worked to put more money in his pocket now plus more on the back end. Something like 12 mil can be freed up with him alone. Kelly and Doyle as other have mentioned are possible and combined could give us a total of roughly 18-20mil. This is something that could help add key players because contracts can be structured to help this year. It will be interesting to see what Ballard does but I just don’t see much action outside of mid tier guys and maybe one big name. 

[harrisoncolts88]

2 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Your thoughts are correct. We more than likely will use the draft to fill key spots. We almost always have the most rookies playing each year and I see that happening again. LT, DE, CB are key spots that I can see rookies playing early if not starting. We can still restructure a few contracts but I feel like it would have been done by now. Still it’s an option to free up some cash. Buckner alone can be re-worked to put more money in his pocket now plus more on the back end. Something like 12 mil can be freed up with him alone. Kelly and Doyle as other have mentioned are possible and combined could give us a total of roughly 18-20mil. This is something that could help add key players because contracts can be structured to help this year. It will be interesting to see what Ballard does but I just don’t see much action outside of mid tier guys and maybe one big name. 

 

Yea thanks for bringing up the restructuring pieces because I totally forgot about Buckner and Kelly with that. But if we did that, all it does it kick that financial burden to future years correct? And with those extensions looming (which will be large), and subsequent draft classes only getting more expensive, since it appears that they tend to get higher as their rookie years progress (I think I'm seeing that with 1st and 2nd round picks). Are we just shooting ourselves in the foot for doing that, just so we can sign an extra 1-2 people this year? And I do understand that (fingers crossed), that the salary cap should be going back to its original pace before covid.

[DaColts85]

5 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

 

Yea thanks for bringing up the restructuring pieces because I totally forgot about Buckner and Kelly with that. But if we did that, all it does it kick that financial burden to future years correct? And with those extensions looming (which will be large), and subsequent draft classes only getting more expensive, since it appears that they tend to get higher as their rookie years progress (I think I'm seeing that with 1st and 2nd round picks). Are we just shooting ourselves in the foot for doing that, just so we can sign an extra 1-2 people this year? And I do understand that (fingers crossed), that the salary cap should be going back to its original pace before covid.

In some situations yes. Restructuring Buckner helps today but hurts tomorrow. Kelly helps all around really. Nothing to bad. As long as Ballard drafts well and makes solid moves the FA carousel won’t matter. Let other teams over pay and we maintain our own. With great drafts you always might lose a guy because of to many big contracts but you keep drafting well and replace that spot. 

[richard pallo]

34 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

In some situations yes. Restructuring Buckner helps today but hurts tomorrow. Kelly helps all around really. Nothing to bad. As long as Ballard drafts well and makes solid moves the FA carousel won’t matter. Let other teams over pay and we maintain our own. With great drafts you always might lose a guy because of to many big contracts but you keep drafting well and replace that spot. 

The only way restructuring Buckner hurts tomorrow is if he doesn't pan out and we have to move on from him before his contract expires.  That certainly does not look like that is going to happen.  We are going to pay him his full contract and he will be with us long term.  On top of that I don't think the salary cap is going to drop again next year.  This would be a great time to do it and use it to extend a player and sign a difference maker or two.

[DaColts85]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

The only way restructuring Buckner hurts tomorrow is if he doesn't pan out and we have to move on from him before his contract expires.  That certainly does not look like that is going to happen.  We are going to pay him his full contract and he will be with us long term.  On top of that I don't think the salary cap is going to drop again next year.  This would be a great time to do it and use it to extend a player and sign a difference maker or two.

I’m not worried about him leaving we were talking strictly money so adding more to his cap hit in the future doesn’t help. 

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

I’m not worried about him leaving we were talking strictly money so adding more to his cap hit in the future doesn’t help. 

It helps us this year though.  We could pick up 12m in extra cap by restructuring him now.  The increased cap in the following years helps absorb the restructuring.  

[DaColts85]

8 hours ago, richard pallo said:

It helps us this year though.  We could pick up 12m in extra cap by restructuring him now.  The increased cap in the following years helps absorb the restructuring.  

Again you aren’t getting the original conversation. Obviously 12mil helps this year but future contracts are looming therefore the point of the original statement is that adding money in the future because contracts isn’t necessarily the best. Can it work, yes, and I get that. 

[w87r]

11 hours ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

So I do have some questions here and I promise I'm not coming at this as trying to be the bearer of bad news. But over the past weeks I've been reading comments up here, played the GM thread, and have read a lot of articles on possible free agents and what they may be worth.

 

And in doing that, know that the Colts have something like 46.7M. And after seeing the draft pool selections, which may very well increase because of Ballard's propensity to trade and collect picks. After you remove the small earning for draft selections, it ends up being like ~4M. And then we all know that the Colts will carry like 5-8M for during the season signings and whatnot. So now we are already up to 9-12M off the books right there.

 

Then there are the RFA and ERFA signing that I truly believe the Colts will make. I will go ahead and just negate the ERFA signings because they are so low that they will just replace the others near the 51 cap line. But the RFA's like Odum, Cox, and Pascal, I believe all of them will at the minimum get the 2.xM. And who knows maybe they are extended instead, which I would like to think they would still at minimum get 2M+ a year. So now we are talking another 5-6M (when other top 51 cap peeps are removed). So now before free agency truly begins, we are at 14-18M off that 46.7. So we could have anywhere between 28.7-32.7 when it's time for the real fun.

 

With that being said, first of all, am I looking at this all wrong? And secondly, how much actual free agency spree are we realllly looking at here? With people wanting to re-sign Houston, Rhodes, Carrie, Autry, etc and the possible splurging on a DE, WR, a TE, etc, there doesn't appear to be enough to actually do all that. And factor that next year (which I know it's future talk) having to extend Leonard, Smith, Hines and possibly Turray, Lewis, Wilkins.

Yes and no.

 

First off every signing will be a lower cap hot against the top 51 cap.(avg about $800k per)

 

So only 2 of our draft picks would count against top 51.

1st - $1.8m

2nd - $970k

 

$2.8m - $1.6m(fall off top 51) = $1.2m top 51 cap hit for all draft picks.

 

(3) RFAs($2.2m/each)

 

$6.6m - $2.4m = $4.2

 

So between RFAs and draft picks the cap burden would only be $5.4m instead of your $10m.

 

So those 8-9 players would only bring vap space down to around $40m.

 

 

And like has been mentioned:

Kelly restructure could save $6.75m

Dont see Buckner happening.

 

Could get us to back ro around $46m with those moves.

 

And again any additional players signed will take around $800k from cap hit for someone sliding off top 51.

 

Say we sign (10) players, our own and FA, whatever their cap hits would be, we would subtract about $8m from that for players that drop below top 51.

 

 

So, yes and no. We don't have a lot of money to spend, but more than it would seem just off based cap hits without taking the players that drop below top 51.

[Superman]

17 hours ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

With that being said, first of all, am I looking at this all wrong? And secondly, how much actual free agency spree are we realllly looking at here? With people wanting to re-sign Houston, Rhodes, Carrie, Autry, etc and the possible splurging on a DE, WR, a TE, etc, there doesn't appear to be enough to actually do all that. And factor that next year (which I know it's future talk) having to extend Leonard, Smith, Hines and possibly Turray, Lewis, Wilkins.

 

All good thoughts, and others have given good answers already. Just wanted to strike at the heart of your question. Many people have overestimated the power of the Colts cap space in 2021, for several reasons.

 

1) The Colts have a very high number of FAs this year, and quite a few of them were starters or regular rotation players in 2020. So part of our cap space will likely be used on retaining our own players.

 

2) At no time has this Colts staff exhibited a 'go all in' mentality, without proper regard for the future. Even the Buckner deal shows their concern about future cap flexibility. So the idea that they'll suddenly be huge spenders in free agency just doesn't seem likely.

 

3) Kind of related to #2, the Colts aren't a big signing bonus / restructure team. We haven't had to consider it in the past, but even now when it might add some firepower in an offseason when a lot of players will be changing teams, it just doesn't seem like it fits the Colts' MO. 

 

If they wanted, they could create another $25-30m in cap space, by restructuring Kelly, Wentz, and Buckner, and they could even add some void years like other teams are doing for players like Doyle and Glow. 

 

Or they could sign a couple high priced FAs using a backloaded structure.

 

I'm not saying they won't do these things. But if they do, it will be a significant departure from the way they've been doing business so far.

 

So, yeah, the idea that the Colts have a ton of cap space and are going to be major FA players doesn't seem realistic to me.

[Zoltan]

Teams have to be under the cap by March 17th correct?

[DaColts85]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

Teams have to be under the cap by March 17th correct?

Yes by 4:00 pm I believe. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 1/31/2021 at 11:54 AM, csmopar said:

While I am no where near as versed in the cap and all the tricks and rules as @Superman and @w87r but I have a working knowledge of the cap.

 

that said, I do have one question or rather topic of questions that I think a lot of posters may have questions to. We all know there’s several teams WAY WAY over the cap. Some of them have been discussed in detail in other threads. So looking for a ballpark answer here, besides the obvious measures of cutting and trading, designation post June and/or restructuring contracts(takes two sides and really we know pushes the hit down the road), what are some other general ways a team can perhaps reduce the cap hits of their players?

 

Probably answered well already from our 'cap' members, and I'll see it as I scroll down. OTOH, I've seen teams using contract tactics with many that don't even cost a player money, like 'voidable years', conversions of 'Roster Bonus' money into 'Signing Bonus' money. Likewise, converting a lot of "Base Salary" pay over to "Signing Bonus" status. Other techniques are the 'Fully Guaranteed Deferred Option Bonus' , the 'Fully Guaranteed Deferred Roster Bonus', and sometimes even using the 'post-June 1 designation' to create cap room.

 

I just wanted to post something not Covid related, finally.     :)