Deon Cain

[SolidGold]

Jerry Rice , Michael Irving , Marvin Harrison , Reggie Wayne , Tory Holt , Isaac Bruce.  These are the only great WR's to win superbowls.  But they all had a great QB. You only need an elite QB and good WR's. WR's are a dime a dozen and overvalued. Pay 1 big money but not 2. We already have the team to win it all now. We are 4-5 yards a carry away from a Championship right now.

[Jdubu]

4 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 How the ___ would you know?
 If Cain is healthy he can go deep and they say he is a route runner. I ask can he catch the ____ ball with those tiny hands?
 You watched i suppose, Pascal and Rogers BOTH play like solid #3's yesterday and spout this bunk. Get a clue'

Rogers did not play like a number 3 yesterday. He is lucky to be on an nfl roster right now imo. 

[shasta519]

5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Too premature to say none of these guy's can be a # 2 or 3. There are great receivers all over the league who were developed.

 

 

Like who? All WRs need to be devloped...for the most part. But it's not like a bunch of late-round and UDFAs are running around lighting it up. Here is the top 30 WRs by yardage as of today:

 

Julio Jones - 1st round

Tyreek Hill - 5th round

Adam Thielen - UDFA

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 2nd round

Michael Thomas - 2nd round 

Mike Evans - 1st round

Davante Adams - 2nd round

DeAndre Hopkins - 1st round

Keenan Allen - 3rd round

Antonio Brown - 6th round

Odell Beckham - 1st round

Brandin Cooks - 1st round 

Robert Woods - 2nd round

Tyler Boyd - 2nd round

T.Y. Hilton - 3rd round 

Amari Cooper - 1st round

Stefon Diggs - 5th round

Emmanuel Sanders - 3rd round

Kenny Golladay - 3rd round

Jarvis Landry - 2nd round

Corey Davis - 1st round

Tyler Lockett - 3rd round

DeSean Jackson - 2nd round

Josh Gordon - 2nd round

Golden Tate - 2nd round

A.J. Green - 1st round

Chris Godwin - 3rd round

D.J. Moore - 1st round

John Brown - 3rd round

Calvin Ridley - 1st round

 

1st round - 10

2nd round - 9

3rd round - 7

4th round or later - 4

 

26 of the top WRs (by yardage) were picked by the end of Day Two. The ones that weren't are rare...like Hill, Brown and Thielen.

 

The Colts don't need to draft a WR in the 1st round (unless it is a clear BPA)...but they need better talent. And that talent is typically found before the end of the 3rd round...no with developing late-round WR and UDFAs. 

[crazycolt1]

8 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Like who? All WRs need to be devloped...for the most part. But it's not like a bunch of late-round and UDFAs are running around lighting it up. Here is the top 30 WRs by yardage as of today:

 

Julio Jones - 1st round

Tyreek Hill - 5th round

Adam Thielen - UDFA

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 2nd round

Michael Thomas - 2nd round 

Mike Evans - 1st round

Davante Adams - 2nd round

DeAndre Hopkins - 1st round

Keenan Allen - 3rd round

Antonio Brown - 6th round

Odell Beckham - 1st round

Brandin Cooks - 1st round 

Robert Woods - 2nd round

Tyler Boyd - 2nd round

T.Y. Hilton - 3rd round 

Amari Cooper - 1st round

Stefon Diggs - 5th round

Emmanuel Sanders - 3rd round

Kenny Golladay - 3rd round

Jarvis Landry - 2nd round

Corey Davis - 1st round

Tyler Lockett - 3rd round

DeSean Jackson - 2nd round

Josh Gordon - 2nd round

Golden Tate - 2nd round

A.J. Green - 1st round

Chris Godwin - 3rd round

D.J. Moore - 1st round

John Brown - 3rd round

Calvin Ridley - 1st round

 

1st round - 10

2nd round - 9

3rd round - 7

4th round or later - 4

 

26 of the top WRs (by yardage) were picked by the end of Day Two. The ones that weren't are rare...like Hill, Brown and Thielen.

 

The Colts don't need to draft a WR in the 1st round (unless it is a clear BPA)...but they need better talent. And that talent is typically found before the end of the 3rd round...no with developing late-round WR and UDFAs. 

I still stand by my opinion. We are not as bad at the receiver position as some seem to think.

With the new rules that have been made by the NFL it opens up the receiver position.

With Luck having more time to find receivers it's not imperative to have 1st or 2nd round receivers that will take 2 or 3 seasons to develop. 

If you take a look at your list there is one thing in common. The top receivers have a good QB that throws to them. If you also notice in the top 15 receivers on your list 5 of them come from the 3 rd or lower with one being a UDFA.

No where did I say the Colts don't need better talent. I said if the Colts wanted better talent it would have to come from free agency. Any receiver taken in the draft will take 2 or 3 years to develop. Very few of the receivers you listed made much of an impact there rookie year or their 2nd year.

 

[crazycolt1]

9 hours ago, Jdubu said:

Rogers did not play like a number 3 yesterday. He is lucky to be on an nfl roster right now imo. 

How many time did Luck throw to him?

[Finball]

1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

 

No where did I say the Colts don't need better talent. I said if the Colts wanted better talent it would have to come from free agency. Any receiver taken in the draft will take 2 or 3 years to develop. Very few of the receivers you listed made much of an impact there rookie year or their 2nd year.

 

 

I was of that opinion in the past but the WR prices ballooned last year. FA should still remain at least an option but it would be expensive and to have more than 2 good receivers, we'd probably need to find them at the draft.

 

About 20 WRs of that list were good right away. And only about half a dozen needed more than 2 years to develop into an impact player.

[Jdubu]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

How many time did Luck throw to him?

6 times, 5 catches for an eye popping 7 ypc wooohoooo. Again, this guy is nothing more than JAG and is found with any off the street pick up if you need a fill in. He has the spot now but I’d doubt he gets claimed by anyone if we dropped him today is my point. He is one of the lucky ones, he has a chair but if the music stops and he isn’t sitting, he has a hard time locating another chair to sit in. Let’s hope he has managed that rookie money well imo. 

[richard pallo]

5 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

6 times, 5 catches for an eye popping 7 ypc wooohoooo. Again, this guy is nothing more than JAG and is found with any off the street pick up if you need a fill in. He has the spot now but I’d doubt he gets claimed by anyone if we dropped him today is my point. He is one of the lucky ones, he has a chair but if the music stops and he isn’t sitting, he has a hard time locating another chair to sit in. Let’s hope he has managed that rookie money well imo. 

He also fumbled a punt but recovered it. 

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

I still stand by my opinion. We are not as bad at the receiver position as some seem to think.

With the new rules that have been made by the NFL it opens up the receiver position.

With Luck having more time to find receivers it's not imperative to have 1st or 2nd round receivers that will take 2 or 3 seasons to develop. 

If you take a look at your list there is one thing in common. The top receivers have a good QB that throws to them. If you also notice in the top 15 receivers on your list 5 of them come from the 3 rd or lower with one being a UDFA.

No where did I say the Colts don't need better talent. I said if the Colts wanted better talent it would have to come from free agency. Any receiver taken in the draft will take 2 or 3 years to develop. Very few of the receivers you listed made much of an impact there rookie year or their 2nd year.

 

FA?  I just read an article today on BR ranking the top 25 FA's coming up.  The only WR was 31yr. old Golden Tate and he was ranked no. 20.   31 yrs. old is not Ballards MO.  Unless Ballard trades for one it's going to be hard to find a good one in FA.  It's looking more like an early draft pick to me. 

[Coffeedrinker]

11 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Like who? All WRs need to be devloped...for the most part. But it's not like a bunch of late-round and UDFAs are running around lighting it up. Here is the top 30 WRs by yardage as of today:

 

Julio Jones - 1st round

Tyreek Hill - 5th round

Adam Thielen - UDFA

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 2nd round

Michael Thomas - 2nd round 

Mike Evans - 1st round

Davante Adams - 2nd round

DeAndre Hopkins - 1st round

Keenan Allen - 3rd round

Antonio Brown - 6th round

Odell Beckham - 1st round

Brandin Cooks - 1st round 

Robert Woods - 2nd round

Tyler Boyd - 2nd round

T.Y. Hilton - 3rd round 

Amari Cooper - 1st round

Stefon Diggs - 5th round

Emmanuel Sanders - 3rd round

Kenny Golladay - 3rd round

Jarvis Landry - 2nd round

Corey Davis - 1st round

Tyler Lockett - 3rd round

DeSean Jackson - 2nd round

Josh Gordon - 2nd round

Golden Tate - 2nd round

A.J. Green - 1st round

Chris Godwin - 3rd round

D.J. Moore - 1st round

John Brown - 3rd round

Calvin Ridley - 1st round

 

1st round - 10

2nd round - 9

3rd round - 7

4th round or later - 4

 

26 of the top WRs (by yardage) were picked by the end of Day Two. The ones that weren't are rare...like Hill, Brown and Thielen.

 

The Colts don't need to draft a WR in the 1st round (unless it is a clear BPA)...but they need better talent. And that talent is typically found before the end of the 3rd round...no with developing late-round WR and UDFAs. 

The flip side of that, is that WR seems to be one of the hardest positions to draft.  For example, on your list, in the last 4 years 48 WRs have been drafted in the first three rounds of the draft.  I know there are no guarantees when drafting but WRs also seem to have the most "busts" or at least the most players not living up to their draft status.

[Jdubu]

29 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

He also fumbled a punt but recovered it. 

Yep. He also had two catchable punts that he elected to wave everyone away from and then took them on the bounce. I’m not clear as to why he managed those two punts in that manner and nobody else has really chimed in on that issue. It was very odd to me and seemed liked setting up for a big error if that ball bounced wrong and he mishandled it. 

[Superman]

11 hours ago, shastamasta said:

1st round - 10

2nd round - 9

3rd round - 7

4th round or later - 4

 

26 of the top WRs (by yardage) were picked by the end of Day Two. The ones that weren't are rare...like Hill, Brown and Thielen.

 

 

Nice case study. This might be confirmation bias, but I've been saying that I think GMs have been missing on receivers in the first round lately. Day 2 receivers (16 in two rounds) are comparable to Day 1 receivers (10 in one round). 

 

We definitely need to get better at receiver, and I wouldn't be willing to count on Cain being a reliable producer next season. 

[Superman]

26 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

ranking the top 25 FA's coming up

 

Why don't you expand your criteria a little bit? Ballard isn't exactly a "top 25 FA" kind of guy...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/wide-receiver/

 

[Finball]

16 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

The flip side of that, is that WR seems to be one of the hardest positions to draft.  For example, on your list, in the last 4 years 48 WRs have been drafted in the first three rounds of the draft.  I know there are no guarantees when drafting but WRs also seem to have the most "busts" or at least the most players not living up to their draft status.

 

I think there was a study done on this and it was linked and discussed on this forum. WRs used to be among the safest positions at the top of the draft. But since 2015, busts have been increasing. 

[Coffeedrinker]

11 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

Yep. He also had two catchable punts that he elected to wave everyone away from and then took them on the bounce. I’m not clear as to why he managed those two punts in that manner and nobody else has really chimed in on that issue. It was very odd to me and seemed liked setting up for a big error if that ball bounced wrong and he mishandled it. 

He waved everyone away and let it bounce because they were short punts and it would have been difficult to run up there and try to field them.  He fielded them on the bounce because they bounced right to him... (obviously I don't know for sure but as an educated guess) he would not have tried to field them if they had bounced left/right or over his head.

[Coffeedrinker]

Just now, Finball said:

 

I think there was a study done on this and it was linked and discussed on this forum. WRs used to be among the safest positions at the top of the draft. But since 2015, busts have been increasing. 

I've been following the draft closely since 1997 and in that time WRs have also been a crap shoot, especially at the top of the draft, even when you remove the Matt Millen factor

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Why don't you expand your criteria a little bit? Ballard isn't exactly a "top 25 FA" kind of guy...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/wide-receiver/

 

Not a top 25 FA guy until this year I think.  Only one of these receivers can make the top 25.  And he's 31.  Not impressed really.  Ballard will take a swing.  He almost has to.  He already has missed on Aiken, Grant, and Inman.   So I am not too excited about a WR in FA but I think he will sign one.  I think he also drafts one early.  

[Superman]

Just now, richard pallo said:

Not a top 25 FA guy until this year I think.  Only one of these receivers can make the top 25.  And he's 31.  Not impressed really.  Ballard will take a swing.  He almost has to.  He already has missed on Aiken, Grant, and Inman.   So I am not too excited about a WR in FA but I think he will sign one.  I think he also drafts one early.  

 

Top 25 by some random person's criteria.

 

There are a handful of good WR FAs this offseason. I don't think it matters if B/R thinks they're top 25 or not.

[Finball]

31 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I've been following the draft closely since 1997 and in that time WRs have also been a crap shoot, especially at the top of the draft, even when you remove the Matt Millen factor

 

Yeah but almost every position is more or less a crapshoot.

 

Though via quick google, I recalled a bit wrong as WR is the 3rd riskiest position to draft in the 1st round, behind only DL and RB. That study looked at 25 and 10 years back from 2010. WRs were tied with DL for the 2nd riskiest pick among top 10 picks but were among the safest in the top 5.

 

Another study , though I'm personally not the biggest fan of their criteria but it's hard to come up with a good one for all positions. They looked at 05-14 and found these success rate in terms of finding starters:

 

Quote

 

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

 

 

And since 2015, success rate for 1st round WRs seems to have gotten even worse. Possibly because of increased need for receivers in todays passing game.

[MikeCurtis]

36 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I've been following the draft closely since 1997 and in that time WRs have also been a crap shoot, especially at the top of the draft, even when you remove the Matt Millen factor

To me....... I wouldnt consider a WR until round 2 or 3...... due to this risk

 

We need DL IMHO with round 1......  Seems to be LESS risky

[MikeCurtis]

2 minutes ago, Finball said:

 

Yeah but almost every position is more or less a crapshoot.

 

Though via quick google, I recalled a bit wrong as WR is the 3rd riskiest position to draft in the 1st round, behind only DL and RB. That study looked at 25 and 10 years back from 2010. WRs were tied with DL for the 2nd riskiest pick among top 10 picks but were among the safest in the top 5.

 

Another study , though I'm personally not the biggest fan of their criteria but it's hard to come up with a good one for all positions. They looked at 05-14 and found these success rate in terms of finding starters:

 

 

And since 2015, success rate for 1st round WRs seems to have gotten even worse. Possibly because of increased need for receivers in todays passing game.

I havent seen these studies, but wonder if the DE position is more risky than the DT position.

 

It SEEMS that the DEs flame out moreso than DTs (Non scientific thought)

[Dark Superman]

I would love for us to draft DK Metcalf and play him on the outside as our #2. If Cain can bounce back, I would love to play him as our slot guy.

[Finball]

8 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I havent seen these studies, but wonder if the DE position is more risky than the DT position.

 

It SEEMS that the DEs flame out moreso than DTs (Non scientific thought)

 

Might be but it's hard to seprate between them for these studies. One would need to look at everyone individually. As DE might mean 4-3 DE or 3-4 DE.. And it's fairly rare that one player can do both succesfully.

[ztboiler]

55 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Top 25 by some random person's criteria.

 

There are a handful of good WR FAs this offseason. I don't think it matters if B/R thinks they're top 25 or not.

I feel like it’s a pretty light WR UFA class for 2019...not that they all need to be #1 types of which there are certainly few.  

 

Jamison Crowder or John Brown could fill a niche.  Maybe Quincy Enunwa could take the next step here after missing all of last year?

 

Who are you liking that might be notably better than what we have in a #2 role?

[Jdubu]

1 hour ago, Coffeedrinker said:

He waved everyone away and let it bounce because they were short punts and it would have been difficult to run up there and try to field them.  He fielded them on the bounce because they bounced right to him... (obviously I don't know for sure but as an educated guess) he would not have tried to field them if they had bounced left/right or over his head.

I get that CD but as I recall, those balls looked very catchable but he didn’t move up fast or far enough to get to the ball in the air but from my view on tv, it looked like both of those ball should have been catchable balls while in the air. They both just appeared odd to me. 

[Superman]

16 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

I feel like it’s a pretty light WR UFA class for 2019...not that they all need to be #1 types of which there are certainly few.  

 

Jamison Crowder or John Brown could fill a niche.  Maybe Quincy Enunwa could take the next step here after missing all of last year?

 

Who are you liking that might be notably better than what we have in a #2 role?

 

It's a light WR class if you're looking for a specific kind of receiver. There are guys who don't fit our specific criteria (whatever those are, but most Colts fans want someone 6'2", 26 years old, who can stretch the field and never drops the ball), but will be decent adds for other teams.

 

Humphries, Brown, Cobb, Moncrief, Hogan, Beasley, Crowder, etc. Older guys like Tate, Cobb, Wallace, will fit in somewhere also.

 

Second tier guys like Enunwa, Williams (Chargers), Conley (KC), probably fit our profile best.

 

And there's a host of third tier guys that I would look at, although I'd love to come away with a bonafide #2: White, Latimer, Matthews, Hardy, Perriman, Coates, etc. 

[richard pallo]

White would be my number one FA WR target.  Would love to see what Reich and Luck could do with him. 

[crazycolt1]

After reading all the comments about this receiver that most everyone wants the only conclusion I can come up with that player will have to be traded for.

IMO it is not necessary to have that 6-3 or bigger WR to be competitive.  That is the job for the TEs in todays passing game.

The Colts have been very good at using their TEs and I see no reason to expect that to change. The size of the receiver makes no difference if he can run good routes and catch the ball when catchable. It's up to the QB to put the ball where it can be caught.

 

[ztboiler]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

It's a light WR class if you're looking for a specific kind of receiver. There are guys who don't fit our specific criteria (whatever those are, but most Colts fans want someone 6'2", 26 years old, who can stretch the field and never drops the ball), but will be decent adds for other teams.

 

Humphries, Brown, Cobb, Moncrief, Hogan, Beasley, Crowder, etc. Older guys like Tate, Cobb, Wallace, will fit in somewhere also.

 

Second tier guys like Enunwa, Williams (Chargers), Conley (KC), probably fit our profile best.

 

And there's a host of third tier guys that I would look at, although I'd love to come away with a bonafide #2: White, Latimer, Matthews, Hardy, Perriman, Coates, etc. 

I’ve been warming to the idea of Crowder in this offense.  We need a YAC guy in this scheme.  Might be worth a premium.

[Superman]

52 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

I’ve been warming to the idea of Crowder in this offense.  We need a YAC guy in this scheme.  Might be worth a premium.

 

I want a YAC guy, too, but I feel like Hines can do that. Same size, more athletic, a lot cheaper.

[Dingus McGirt]

20 hours ago, Four2itus said:

The real question, is...would he name his kids, Lido, Nova, and Co?

Benzo...

[hoosierhawk]

6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Not a top 25 FA guy until this year I think.  Only one of these receivers can make the top 25.  And he's 31.  Not impressed really.  Ballard will take a swing.  He almost has to.  He already has missed on Aiken, Grant, and Inman.   So I am not too excited about a WR in FA but I think he will sign one.  I think he also drafts one early.  

Missed on Inman? How much did you expect?

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, hoosierhawk said:

Missed on Inman? how muck did you expect?

Not a lot really.  He was on the street for quite awhile before we signed him.  But he was a FA signing and we needed another veteran.  Nothing long term there. 

[Cynjin]

14 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Not a lot really.  He was on the street for quite awhile before we signed him.  But he was a FA signing and we needed another veteran.  Nothing long term there. 

 

That doesn't make Inman a miss.

[crazycolt1]

38 minutes ago, Cynjin said:

 

That doesn't make Inman a miss.

I was thinking the same thing. He may not be that 7-5 325 receiver that some want but I think he is talented enough to make this roster.

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, Cynjin said:

 

That doesn't make Inman a miss.

Well I don't know about that.  Grant is on the roster and no one has a problem calling him a miss.     We will be moving on from both of them IMO. 

[throwing BBZ]

5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

After reading all the comments about this receiver that most everyone wants the only conclusion I can come up with that player will have to be traded for.

IMO it is not necessary to have that 6-3 or bigger WR to be competitive.  That is the job for the TEs in todays passing game.

The Colts have been very good at using their TEs and I see no reason to expect that to change. The size of the receiver makes no difference if he can run good routes and catch the ball when catchable. It's up to the QB to put the ball where it can be caught.

 

 

I get your drift but running the ball in the playoffs is still a Big deal .
And receivers that can also block are on CB's Big Radar i believe.

[crazycolt1]

28 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

I get your drift but running the ball in the playoffs is still a Big deal .
And receivers that can also block are on CB's Big Radar i believe.

What I see is Ebron is used as that receiver that some want us to draft. Just because he is call a TE, he has the athletic ability to do what they want a receiver to do. The way he is used it looks like that is what the Colts think too.

[Cynjin]

1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

I was thinking the same thing. He may not be that 7-5 325 receiver that some want but I think he is talented enough to make this roster.

 

You forgot, they also want that receiver to have 4.15 speed.

[Cynjin]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Well I don't know about that.  Grant is on the roster and no one has a problem calling him a miss.     We will be moving on from both of them IMO. 

 

I have a problem with calling either a miss, but especially Inman.  Inman has been a pleasant surprise, so has Mitchell at safety.  The Colts will be moving on from many players, but that also does not make them a miss.