Panthers extend Cam Newton, five years, $103.8m (merge)

[amfootball]

Cam does well without having many weapons by any means. If they would have get him receivers, they could win the division every year. 

That seems very simplistic. Cutler has had great weapons and ...

 

Like I said, I like Cam. I do think he has not reached his ceiling but that was a huge contract for a QB that is still working on his game. Remember his overall record is 30-31-1 and his career completion percentage is below 60.

 

I get the sense with this contract they are paying for what they think the future Cam will look like and I think that could be a dangerous game.

[jvan1973]

That seems very simplistic. Cutler has had great weapons and ...

Like I said, I like Cam. I do think he has not reached his ceiling but that was a huge contract for a QB that is still working on his game. Remember his overall record is 30-31-1 and his career completion percentage is below 60.

I get the sense with this contract they are paying for what they think the future Cam will look like and I think that could be a dangerous game.

20 million a year is the going rate for a capable qb

[amfootball]

20 million a year is the going rate for a capable qb

Not necessarily. Plenty of QBs are making under 20.  Tanny just signed for under 20 so did Alex Smith and Kaep. I would have put Cam in their range but again I think Carolina maybe sees a bigger upside. We will see if they are right.

[Superman]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/cam-newton/

 

For once, a contract that is pretty much as reported at first, with actual guaranteed money (which is why Spotrac has the details so quickly). New money is five years, $103.8m, so they can report it as $20.76m/year. But they restructured the 2015 salary, and the deal goes through 2020, so it's actually six years, $118.47m, with an average of about $19.75m/year. Fully guaranteed as of signing is $54m.

 

Signing bonus is $22.5m (which was about the total value of his rookie contract), he gets a roster bonus in 2015 of $7.5m, and a base salary of $1m. Total earned in 2015 is $31m, but the cap hit is $13m. This is 8.7% of the Panthers 2015 adjusted salary cap.

 

Has an option bonus of $10m in 2016, and a base salary of $13m (both guaranteed), and the cap hit goes up to $19.5m. That's about 13% of the projected 2016 salary cap. Total earned in 2016 is $23m.

 

Base salary of $13.67m in 2017 (of which $6m is guaranteed for injury now, and becomes fully guaranteed if he's on the roster in March 2017; if they cut him prior to that, his dead cap hit would be $21.5m, so it's essentially guaranteed now). 2017 cap hit of $20.17m. Total earned through the first three years is $67.7m. (It's been reported that this is the most through the first three years of a contract; technically true, but Peyton Manning's 2011 Colts contract would have paid him $69m through the first three years.)

 

Salaries / cap hits for final three years: 

2018: $15m / $21.5m

2019: $16.7m / $23.2m

2020: $19.1m / $21.1m

 

Pretty balanced contract, which is always good. Lots of actual guaranteed money (not rolling or staggered guarantees, like others have had), even cap hits after 2015 ... big money but still plenty of cap flexibility for the team. We can question whether Newton is a $20m/year QB, but the structure of this contract shows that the Panthers believe in him. 

 

Next year, the Colts can pretty much copy this structure for Luck, with a little extra juice.

[NewColtsFan]

That seems very simplistic. Cutler has had great weapons and ...

 

Like I said, I like Cam. I do think he has not reached his ceiling but that was a huge contract for a QB that is still working on his game. Remember his overall record is 30-31-1 and his career completion percentage is below 60.

 

I get the sense with this contract they are paying for what they think the future Cam will look like and I think that could be a dangerous game.

 

This is the game the NFL built with the new CBA.    If guys like Newton or Tannehill are, in your opinion, being overpaid in the next few years until they prove their worthiness -- well OK. 

 

Because it shouldn't be forgotten that guys like Newton and Tannehill and even Andrew Luck were UNDERPAID for their first four years.    That's how the new CBA works.

 

Don't get me wrong,  I'm in favor of the new CBA.    The old CBA was a disaster with guys like Sam Bradford getting $78 Mill with $50 mill guaranteed.    That was a terrible thing for all 32 NFL locker-rooms and everyone knew it.

 

So, now it's a tradeoff.    Teams get to under pay guys in their first four years in exchange for the possibility of over-paying them for a few years of their 2nd contract.

 

Teams don't have a choice.    What choice did Carolina have?   Play the game of letting him play for his 5th year and then two more years at 120 percent bumps?    He'd be way over 20 million both years.

 

If Newton is your future, then pay him.     Baltimore played the game of making the guy earn the huge deal and it cost them a 6th year and an additional 20-30 million dollars.    That's why they've had so much roster turnover since their Super Bowl win.

 

This is what the NFL created.    Teams don't have a lot of great choices.   It's safer to pay the guy you hope will be the man.   If it doesn't turn out that way,  you re-visit in about 3 years.

[amfootball]

This is the game the NFL built with the new CBA.    If guys like Newton or Tannehill are, in your opinion, being overpaid in the next few years until they prove their worthiness -- well OK. 

 

Because it shouldn't be forgotten that guys like Newton and Tannehill and even Andrew Luck were UNDERPAID for their first four years.    That's how the new CBA works.

 

Don't get me wrong,  I'm in favor of the new CBA.    The old CBA was a disaster with guys like Sam Bradford getting $78 Mill with $50 mill guaranteed.    That was a terrible thing for all 32 NFL locker-rooms and everyone knew it.

 

So, now it's a tradeoff.    Teams get to under pay guys in their first four years in exchange for the possibility of over-paying them for a few years of their 2nd contract.

 

Teams don't have a choice.    What choice did Carolina have?   Play the game of letting him play for his 5th year and then two more years at 120 percent bumps?    He'd be way over 20 million both years.

 

If Newton is your future, then pay him.     Baltimore played the game of making the guy earn the huge deal and it cost them a 6th year and an additional 20-30 million dollars.    That's why they've had so much roster turnover since their Super Bowl win.

 

This is what the NFL created.    Teams don't have a lot of great choices.   It's safer to pay the guy you hope will be the man.   If it doesn't turn out that way,  you re-visit in about 3 years.

Yeah, I get all that. And think everyone agrees the new rookie salary scale is a great thing for the teams BUT my point had nothing to do with that. I don't think Carolina had to pay Newton that type of money as his play does not warrant it. I mean if Seattle is hesitating on Russell Wilson making top money, I am not sure why Carolina was so willing to hand it over to Newton. The whole point of the CBA is to help teams decide after fours years or possibly a fifth if the guy they have is the future. I think we all agree Newton is the future there but at that price? That is the part I am questioning, not them extending him.

[crazycolt1]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember Peyton taking several pay cuts to keep guys around, I have no doubt #12 would do the same

Restructuring is not taking a pay cut. It's the same money just paid at different times through out the contract.

[NewColtsFan]

Yeah, I get all that. And think everyone agrees the new rookie salary scale is a great thing for the teams BUT my point had nothing to do with that. I don't think Carolina had to pay Newton that type of money as his play does not warrant it. I mean if Seattle is hesitating on Russell Wilson making top money, I am not sure why Carolina was so willing to hand it over to Newton. The whole point of the CBA is to help teams decide after fours years or possibly a fifth if the guy they have is the future. I think we all agree Newton is the future there but at that price? That is the part I am questioning, not them extending him.

 

What other choice did they have?

 

Seriously.

 

They could wait another year,  but if Newton has another good year,  then they'd have to sign him to an even bigger deal in 2016.

 

You'd almost be hoping he didn't have a good year so you wouldn't have to pay him as much.    The problem is,  if he has a poor year,  then this coaching staff and front office might be gone in a year.

 

The owner, Jerry Richardson, is a pretty tight-fisted guy.    I think if he's agreed to this deal -- and he has -- then he knows the future without doing this deal has way more downside risk than it does upside risk.

[csmopar]

That seems very simplistic. Cutler has had great weapons and ...

Like I said, I like Cam. I do think he has not reached his ceiling but that was a huge contract for a QB that is still working on his game. Remember his overall record is 30-31-1 and his career completion percentage is below 60.

I get the sense with this contract they are paying for what they think the future Cam will look like and I think that could be a dangerous game.

For once, we agree. Holy crap, I'm gonna go guy a lottery ticket....

[amfootball]

What other choice did they have?

 

Seriously.

 

They could wait another year,  but if Newton has another good year,  then they'd have to sign him to an even bigger deal in 2016.

 

You'd almost be hoping he didn't have a good year so you wouldn't have to pay him as much.    The problem is,  if he has a poor year,  then this coaching staff and front office might be gone in a year.

 

The owner, Jerry Richardson, is a pretty tight-fisted guy.    I think if he's agreed to this deal -- and he has -- then he knows the future without doing this deal has way more downside risk than it does upside risk.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I am not saying they should not have extended Newton but what they are giving him IMO is for future performance as his past four seasons does not warrant that type of deal, again IMO. I would have put him right in line with what Tanny and Alex Smith got but again, I think Carolina sees more of a ceiling/upside to him and are banking on that. That is the part that I think may come back to haunt them.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Posted Today, 05:35 AM

amfootball, on 03 Jun 2015 - 06:20 AM, said:

That seems very simplistic. Cutler has had great weapons and ...

Like I said, I like Cam. I do think he has not reached his ceiling but that was a huge contract for a QB that is still working on his game. Remember his overall record is 30-31-1 and his career completion percentage is below 60.

I get the sense with this contract they are paying for what they think the future Cam will look like and I think that could be a dangerous game.

 

For once, we agree. Holy crap, I'm gonna go guy a lottery ticket....

 

Basically, Cam got what Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco got 2 years ago?  Here's a detailed article on the QB market and how Newton's deal impacts it.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25204195/agents-take-how-cam-newtons-megadeal-impacts-the-qb-market

 

Now, as far as Luck.  He will get paid, no question there.  The question is when?  Remember, Peyton Manning's rookie contract was 6 years, 47.7 million with 11.6 million guaranteed in 1998. When that rookie contract expired, the Colts put the Franchise Tag on him at 18.6 million for one year (2004), which finally forced a deal to get done... 7 years at 99.2 million including a 34.7 million dollar signing bonus for the 27 year old QB. Irsay then promised the biggest contract ever (and Brady just received a 4 year 72 million deal !!), but with a potential lockout on the horizon, the Colts put the Franchise tag on Manning again.  5 days after the lockout ended, Manning signed the famous 5 year, 90 million deal that was supposed to have him retire as a Colt.

 

So Luck will get paid, and very well.  But the timing?  Irsay history above with Peyton shows Jim is never really in a hurry to 'Git R Dun'.

 

Another thing, rookie contract comp (A. Luck 5th year option is picked up)- 

 

Peyton Manning rookie contract: 6 years 47.7 million  11.6 guaranteed    7.95 mil/yr     1998 

Andrew Luck rookie contract :     5 years 38.3 million  22.1 guaranteed    7.66 mil/yr     2012

 

Peyton made more money in his NFL rookie contract 14 years ago than Luck. In a QB driven league, this disparity will quickly even out over the next 1 or two contracts, and thus the groans from fans not used to these 'new CBA' QB's, as NCF had pointed out.

[Superman]

The impact of the new CBA is being discussed, and that's part of it.

 

I think the bigger issue here is that college QBs are generally not ready to play in the NFL right away. Couple that with the fact that rookie contracts are limited to four years, and add in that coaches and GMs are on a short leash these days, and you have an environment where good QBs are rare. Supply and demand is the primary factor in market prices. If you want something that not a lot of people have, you're going to pay a premium for it.

 

Whether he's worth $20m/year or not, it's not like the Panthers had any real alternative. And he's a good QB. He still needs to get better in a lot of areas, but let's not act like he's Tim Tebow or something. He's going into Year 5, and still has a lot of upside. I don't get the Cutler comparison, as Newton is a way better playmaker, far more athletic, and at worse, equal as a passer. And that's with sometimes sloppy mechanics and questionable footwork; watch what happens if he becomes more consistent with his technique.

[NewColtsFan]

I think you are misunderstanding me. I am not saying they should not have extended Newton but what they are giving him IMO is for future performance as his past four seasons does not warrant that type of deal, again IMO. I would have put him right in line with what Tanny and Alex Smith got but again, I think Carolina sees more of a ceiling/upside to him and are banking on that. That is the part that I think may come back to haunt them.

 

No, I understand you perfectly.

 

But it comes back to the same question.....   what other choice did they have?

 

They wound up paying a number that both sides could live with.

 

Any less,  and a deal likely doesn't get done and the Panthers are then putting franchise tags on him.....

 

Those don't always work out so well,  so find a way to get your QB signed.

 

I don't think Carolina had much choice.....

[amfootball]

No, I understand you perfectly.

 

But it comes back to the same question.....   what other choice did they have?

 

They wound up paying a number that both sides could live with.

 

Any less,  and a deal likely doesn't get done and the Panthers are then putting franchise tags on him.....

 

Those don't always work out so well,  so find a way to get your QB signed.

 

I don't think Carolina had much choice.....

Yeah, I suppose so. Which is what makes the Russell Wilson case so curious. I really thought the Seahawks would have paid him with no issue. I think this Newton deal will hurt the Hawks FO's chances of getting done the deal they had hoped for. I can't imagine Wilson's agent taking anything less than what Newton got and asking for more on top.

[NewColtsFan]

Yeah, I suppose so. Which is what makes the Russell Wilson case so curious. I really thought the Seahawks would have paid him with no issue. I think this Newton deal will hurt the Hawks FO's chances of getting done the deal they had hoped for. I can't imagine Wilson's agent taking anything less than what Newton got and asking for more on top.

 

Absolutely agree.

 

The one NFL franchise that is really pi**ed with the Newton deal is......  Seattle.

 

Something strange is going on there....   I'm not sure if it's on the Seahawks side or the Wilson side or both.

 

Wilson's price keeps going up.   Clearly there's a big difference of opinion on this on both sides,  though the latest leak was that progress was being made.     OK,  if I'm a Seattle fan, I sure hope that's true.

[amfootball]

Absolutely agree.

 

The one NFL franchise that is really pi**ed with the Newton deal is......  Seattle.

 

Something strange is going on there....   I'm not sure if it's on the Seahawks side or the Wilson side or both.

 

Wilson's price keeps going up.   Clearly there's a big difference of opinion on this on both sides,  though the latest leak was that progress was being made.     OK,  if I'm a Seattle fan, I sure hope that's true.

Yeah, Seattle is a strange situation.

 

You know one analyst, I can't remember who said that once that SB ended in the fashion it did that the Allen should blow the whole thing up as a franchise never recovers from it. They cited the Titans in 1999 losing from one yard out to the Rams and of course the Rams of 2001 losing to the Pats. I think that is over the top drastic to suggest but I get the sentiment. I am not sure how Seattle recovers honestly. They seem to have a lot of guys that want to get paid and I am not sure how that team trusts Carroll/Bevell going forward.

 

I spent some time on their boards last week and they have a thread that is almost 100 pages about the devastation of losing that Super Bowl and it is still going strong. They are not even really discussing deflategate at all as they believe they should have beat the Pats cheating or no cheating. Tough times all around for sure but I do hope they get Wilson done. They are a great fan base and I would hate to see them suffer anymore.

[Superman]

Yeah, Seattle is a strange situation.

 

You know one analyst, I can't remember who said that once that SB ended in the fashion it did that the Allen should blow the whole thing up as a franchise never recovers from it. They cited the Titans in 1999 losing from one yard out to the Rams and of course the Rams of 2001 losing to the Pats. I think that is over the top drastic to suggest but I get the sentiment. I am not sure how Seattle recovers honestly. They seem to have a lot of guys that want to get paid and I am not sure how that team trusts Carroll/Bevell going forward.

 

I spent some time on their boards last week and they have a thread that is almost 100 pages about the devastation of losing that Super Bowl and it is still going strong. They are not even really discussing deflategate at all as they believe they should have beat the Pats cheating or no cheating. Tough times all around for sure but I do hope they get Wilson done. They are a great fan base and I would hate to see them suffer anymore.

 

So they've spent six seasons building one of the best teams and rosters in the league, their best players are all under contract and under 30, they have one of the best young QBs in the league... but because they lost on a bad play call / execution at the end of the SB, they should blow the whole thing up?

 

Goodness gracious...

 

I don't understand all this consternation over Wilson's contract, especially by people who aren't Seahawks fans. It will get done. He'll be a Seahawk for the foreseeable future, and soon (maybe this year, maybe next year, but soon), he'll be one of the highest paid players in the league. It has nothing to do with the SB loss or the overall direction of the franchise. There's nothing strange about his situation to this point. His situation is unique, since he's the first franchise-level QB drafted outside of the first round since 2011 to be worthy of a big contract. There is no precedent. Same reason it took some time for Newton's deal to get done. But just like Newton, once everyone got ready to do it, it got done.

 

Every contract is different, every negotiation is different. I'm super intrigued by it all, and I look forward to seeing how they put it together. But there's no doubt -- none -- that it will come together. 

[amfootball]

So they've spent six seasons building one of the best teams and rosters in the league, their best players are all under contract and under 30, they have one of the best young QBs in the league... but because they lost on a bad play call / execution at the end of the SB, they should blow the whole thing up?

 

Goodness gracious...

 

I don't understand all this consternation over Wilson's contract, especially by people who aren't Seahawks fans. It will get done. He'll be a Seahawk for the foreseeable future, and soon (maybe this year, maybe next year, but soon), he'll be one of the highest paid players in the league. It has nothing to do with the SB loss or the overall direction of the franchise. There's nothing strange about his situation to this point. His situation is unique, since he's the first franchise-level QB drafted outside of the first round since 2011 to be worthy of a big contract. There is no precedent. Same reason it took some time for Newton's deal to get done. But just like Newton, once everyone got ready to do it, it got done.

 

Every contract is different, every negotiation is different. I'm super intrigued by it all, and I look forward to seeing how they put it together. But there's no doubt -- none -- that it will come together. 

Yeah, I think the reaction is over the top silly as well but it remains to be a prevalent thought at least by some folks. I also think it is something Seattle will have to deal with all season as it is an easy story line to play up for the media.

 

I do believe as well they will get Wilson done but it is intriguing that the neg. are still continuing while other guys like Tanny and Newton have gotten done.

[Superman]

Yeah, I think the reaction is over the top silly as well but it remains to be a prevalent thought at least by some folks. I also think it is something Seattle will have to deal with all season as it is an easy story line to play up for the media.

 

I do believe as well they will get Wilson done but it is intriguing that the neg. are still continuing while other guys like Tanny and Newton have gotten done.

 

Tannehill's contract was easier. It's pay as you go, with minimal guarantees and a team friendly structure. He's on the second tier of QB pay. Newton is a year in front of Wilson. His time is coming.

[amfootball]

Tannehill's contract was easier. It's pay as you go, with minimal guarantees and a team friendly structure. He's on the second tier of QB pay. Newton is a year in front of Wilson. His time is coming.

Yeah, apparently Wilson said he is willing to play this entire year on his current deal which is peanuts and then get franchised next year. Seems like Seattle would try to avoid that scenario but stranger things have happened.

[dw49]

Roberto Clemente played 18 seasons. 1955 through 1972. I realize we've had a lot of inflation but he made a total of $758,000 in those 17 years. Started off making 6K per year and maxed out at 150K Only the last 3 years did he earn 100 K or more. 

[Warhorse]

He is going to break it far worse than Peyton ever did.

 You could have said far more, but you said far worse. Interesting

[BOTT]

He is going to break it far worse than Peyton ever did.

Yes, becaus its several yrs later and the cap has gone up.

[BOTT]

Roberto Clemente played 18 seasons. 1955 through 1972. I realize we've had a lot of inflation but he made a total of $758,000 in those 17 years. Started off making 6K per year and maxed out at 150K Only the last 3 years did he earn 100 K or more.

Overpaid

[dw49]

Overpaid

 

yep

[amfootball]

Yes, becaus its several yrs later and the cap has gone up.

Yes but he is also far and away the best player of the young generation. Not a bad situation to have really. I would rather have the top QB and pay him.