Dustin's Round 1 Mock Draft 3.0

[Dustin]

Round 1

1. Tampa Bay (2-14) - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee (2-14) - Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3. Jacksonville (3-13) - Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida
4. Oakland (3-13) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5. Washington (4-12) - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
6. New York Jets (4-12) - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Chicago (5-11) - Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
8. Atlanta (6-10) - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants (6-10) - Brandon Schreff, G, Iowa
10. St. Louis (6-10) - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11. Minnesota (7-9) - Trae Waynes, CB, MSU
12. Cleveland (7-9) - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13. New Orleans (7-9) - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
14. Miami (8-8) - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCS
15. San Francisco (8-8) - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16. Houston (9-7) - Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
17. San Diego (9-7) - Andrus Peat, T, Stanford
18. Kansas City (9-7) - La'El Collins, OT/G, LSU
19. Cleveland - from Buffalo (9-7) - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
20. Philadelphia (10-6) - Byron Jones, CB/S, UConn
21. Cincinnati* (10-5-1) - T.J. Clemmings, OT/G, Pitt
22. Pittsburgh* (11-5) - Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
23. Detroit* (11-5) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
24. Arizona* (11-5) - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25. Carolina* (7-8-1) - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA 
26. Baltimore* (10-6) - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
27. Dallas* (12-4) - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
28. Denver* (12-4) - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
29. Indianapolis* (11-5) - Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State
30. Green Bay* (12-4) - Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31. New Orleans - from Seattle* (12-4) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
32. New England* (12-4) - Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU

[RealityIsLuck]

Arik Armstead, Jalen Collins, DJ Humphries, and Cam Erving are 3 guys I don't see falling to 29, but if they where there I'd take them all. I assume you have them falling to the 2nd? 

[CR91]

randall in the first? you cant be serious

[Dustin]

Arik Armstead, Jalen Collins, DJ Humphries, and Cam Erving are 3 guys I don't see falling to 29, but if they where there I'd take them all. I assume you have them falling to the 2nd?

Yes. All 2nd rounders.

[Dustin]

randall in the first? you cant be serious

I am.

[NewColtsFan]

 

Round 1

1. Tampa Bay (2-14) - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee (2-14) - Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3. Jacksonville (3-13) - Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida
4. Oakland (3-13) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5. Washington (4-12) - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
6. New York Jets (4-12) - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Chicago (5-11) - Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
8. Atlanta (6-10) - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants (6-10) - Brandon Schreff, G, Iowa
10. St. Louis (6-10) - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11. Minnesota (7-9) - Trae Waynes, CB, MSU
12. Cleveland (7-9) - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13. New Orleans (7-9) - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
14. Miami (8-8) - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCS
15. San Francisco (8-8) - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16. Houston (9-7) - Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
17. San Diego (9-7) - Andrus Peat, T, Stanford
18. Kansas City (9-7) - La'El Collins, OT/G, LSU
19. Cleveland - from Buffalo (9-7) - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
20. Philadelphia (10-6) - Byron Jones, CB/S, UConn
21. Cincinnati* (10-5-1) - T.J. Clemmings, OT/G, Pitt
22. Pittsburgh* (11-5) - Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
23. Detroit* (11-5) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
24. Arizona* (11-5) - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25. Carolina* (7-8-1) - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA 
26. Baltimore* (10-6) - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
27. Dallas* (12-4) - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
28. Denver* (12-4) - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
29. Indianapolis* (11-5) - Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State
30. Green Bay* (12-4) - Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31. New Orleans - from Seattle* (12-4) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
32. New England* (12-4) - Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU

 

 

Wow.......

 

You must have been on a 3-day bender when you wrote this.....

 

Here's a link to your review of Demarious Randall.

 

The one where you said you wouldn't want to spend more than a 4th round draft choice and that you didn't see anything that would make you think he's a starting NFL safety.

 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/37466-scouting-profile-damarious-randall-s-arizona-state/

 

8 days later, you now have the Colts taking him 29th overall.    I'd say you really detest Grigson, perhaps more than you hate Polian.    But I always hate to state the obvious.

[Dustin]

Wow.......

 

You must have been on a 3-day bender when you wrote this.....

 

Here's a link to your review of Demarious Randall.

 

The one where you said you wouldn't want to spend more than a 4th round draft choice and that you didn't see anything that would make you think he's a starting NFL safety.

 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/37466-scouting-profile-damarious-randall-s-arizona-state/

 

8 days later, you now have the Colts taking him 29th overall.    I'd say you really detest Grigson, perhaps more than you hate Polian.    But I always hate to state the obvious.

 

I don't think he's worth anything more than a 4th. That doesn't mean he won't go in the first. 

[NewColtsFan]

I don't think he's worth anything more than a 4th. That doesn't mean he won't go in the first. 

 

I'm crossing my fingers that we can get him or Smith at pick 61.   But fear both will go somewhere between picks 45-60.

 

I'll say this,  if Grigson takes Randall at 29 I will seriously have to re-think my view on him from top to bottom.

[#BringBobBack]

i would like it randall is gonna be a great safety developing under pagano good mock

[Track Guy]

Shane Ray falls out of the first?

[12isthenew18]

i'd weep if this happened terrible

[Dustin]

Shane Ray falls out of the first?

 

Not an oversight on my part. I don't think he's good. 

[BProland85]

We could get Randell in the mid-late 2nd. Would rather go DL or RT unless Landon Collins were available.

[Lloyd Tunstill]

Randall is a Joke. Colts take Cam Irving 29th

Edited April 15, 2015 by 21isSuperman

[wig]

Not an oversight on my part. I don't think he's good.

So you're willing to go against the grain for the Colts pick when you don't agree with it, but leave Ray off because you don't think he's good. A little consistency would be better.

[Dustin]

So you're willing to go against the grain for the Colts pick when you don't agree with it, but leave Ray off because you don't think he's good. A little consistency would be better.

 

I don't think teams are that high on him either. 

[Yoshinator]

To everyone that is commenting here, I can't speak for Dustin, but I believe he is mocking these players from a mix of his personal rankings (which some are bold like Ray and I like that he has the guts to do it), and some which he feels he knows where they are going (like randall which made me throw up in my mouth a little). He is being very consistent, you just have to look at the draft a bit and find the signs. Good job Dustin.

[wig]

I don't think teams are that high on him either.

Based on?

[wig]

To everyone that is commenting here, I can't speak for Dustin, but I believe he is mocking these players from a mix of his personal rankings (which some are bold like Ray and I like that he has the guts to do it), and some which he feels he knows where they are going (like randall which made me throw up in my mouth a little). He is being very consistent, you just have to look at the draft a bit and find the signs. Good job Dustin.

So he was being both consistent and using a mix?

[Dustin]

Based on?

 

There was a comment from a scout early in the process that said that the media had Dupree and Ray switched around. That Dupree was going to be taken high and Ray wasn't. Could be nonsense, but i also don't think they value speed rushers that can't turn the corner. 

[Yoshinator]

So he was being both consistent and using a mix?

As Colts fans, it's common knowledge that the Colts are very high on Randall. A mock draft is about trying to get picks right. He explained about Ray, he knows about the Colts and Randall, and he is using a very decent mock based on his ranks and where players could fit on teams. There are a couple surprises like Agholor, but there's nothing out of the ordinary. If you know a pick is most likely going to happen (randall) you put him there, whether he is supposed to go that high or not. Take away the ones you know and the guesswork for the remaining picks becomes that much easier.

[Dustin]

To everyone that is commenting here, I can't speak for Dustin, but I believe he is mocking these players from a mix of his personal rankings (which some are bold like Ray and I like that he has the guts to do it), and some which he feels he knows where they are going (like randall which made me throw up in my mouth a little). He is being very consistent, you just have to look at the draft a bit and find the signs. Good job Dustin.

 

Yeah, honestly it's kind of both tbh. 

[wig]

As Colts fans, it's common knowledge that the Colts are very high on Randall. A mock draft is about trying to get picks right. He explained about Ray, he knows about the Colts and Randall, and he is using a very decent mock based on his ranks and where players could fit on teams. There are a couple surprises like Agholor, but there's nothing out of the ordinary. If you know a pick is most likely going to happen (randall) you put him there, whether he is supposed to go that high or not. Take away the ones you know and the guesswork for the remaining picks becomes that much easier.

 

I don't think anyone can say they will most likely take Randall, at all.  I wouldn't be shocked but they have met with a bunch of guys and there's a really good chance they don't pick any of them.

[Dustin]

As Colts fans, it's common knowledge that the Colts are very high on Randall.

 

Cowboys also. Also from what I've been told, there are a few teams that have Randall as their "emergency first round pick" in case the guys they want aren't available. 

[NewColtsFan]

As Colts fans, it's common knowledge that the Colts are very high on Randall. A mock draft is about trying to get picks right. He explained about Ray, he knows about the Colts and Randall, and he is using a very decent mock based on his ranks and where players could fit on teams. There are a couple surprises like Agholor, but there's nothing out of the ordinary. If you know a pick is most likely going to happen (randall) you put him there, whether he is supposed to go that high or not. Take away the ones you know and the guesswork for the remaining picks becomes that much easier.

 

Being high on a guy doesn't mean that we're talking him in the first round.     We might be high on him for the 2nd round?

 

A draft -- any draft, not just the Colts draft -- is not just about the first round.     Teams do all sorts of homework on players that will go in every round of the draft.

[Gavin]

There was a comment from a scout early in the process that said that the media had Dupree and Ray switched around. That Dupree was going to be taken high and Ray wasn't. Could be nonsense, but i also don't think they value speed rushers that can't turn the corner. 

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Granted the QB was in shotgun and there was a time Ray failed to turn the corner in that tape earlier but its not because he cant turn the corner, Its because he allowed his feet to get out from underneath him and poor hand placement, Freeney struggled to turn the corner on some instances over the course of his career (He literally fell down a few times)...sometimes the Tackle just beats ya to the point

 

<iframe width="675" height="550" src="http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254069&gif=GrossFavorableFugu"frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

 

That's a hand placement and footwork problem I think, Not an inability to turn the corner

 

He will just get better and better as he is coached up to develop his pass rush moves and gains some strength....and probably be a pass rushing nightmare

[Dustin]

<iframe width="675" height="550" src="http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254069&gif=SinfulNegativeAdeliepenguin"frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

Granted the QB was in shotgun and there was a time Ray failed to turn the corner in that tape earlier but its not because he cant turn the corner, Its because he allowed his feet to get out from underneath him and poor hand placement, Freeney struggled to turn the corner on some instances over the course of his career (He literally fell down a few times)...sometimes the Tackle just beats ya to the point

<iframe width="675" height="550" src="http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254069&gif=GrossFavorableFugu"frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

That's a hand placement and footwork problem I think, Not an inability to turn the corner

He will just get better and better as he is coached up to develop his pass rush moves and gains some strength....and probably be a pass rushing nightmare

He has tight hips and ankles. Short area quickness and lateral agility are awful. He'll be a huge disappointment.

[Gavin]

He has tight hips and ankles. Short area quickness and lateral agility are awful. He'll be a huge disappointment.

We will have to disagree on this prospect but that's cool, We all wont see the same thing

[ColtsBlueFL]

I don't think teams are that high on him either. 

 

I think many teams have him lower than round 1 grade, but not all.  You know some team desperate for a pass rusher will take him once Gregory, Beasley, Fowler etc. are gone.

 

I think the guy has too thin a lower body for OLB.  Keep hearing he's a little stiff, too. He wins on first step explosion and pure effort, in college.  I think he gets swallowed up too often in the pros. Not DE material.  But somebody will spend their 1st on him... I believe.

[Colts_Fan12]

I am.

if we over draft that bad ill be very dissapointed. Sad thing is you are prolly right and we'll pick him.

[Colts_Fan12]

I'll say this, if Grigson takes Randall at 29 I will seriously have to re-think my view on him from top to bottom.

same here that don't seem like a very wise move

[chad72]

Grigson has told so many times he tries to model himself after Ozzie, he will take BPA close to need. I find it hard to believe that Randall will be the BPA when he picks, no matter how high the Colts are on him. I still believe there will be a quality OT (RT) candidate there for us when pick no. 29 comes about.

 

Yeah, Buchanon and other safeties went a tad early last year and it is a thin safety group. But I have seen more reaches with Polian than I have seen in 3 of Grigson's drafts on average. Polian wants an MLB, he will go after a 4th round rated Angerer in round 2 if he has to etc. (I am sure we can come up with more examples).

[SDakColts]

I personally wouldn't want to get Randall in the 1st I feel there is more impact players we could draft there instead. However, the way his stock is rising so fast and plenty of teams need a safety. The Colts might just need to pull the trigger on him in the 1st. I could see that happening especially if Grigson sees him as his guy.

[Colts_Fan12]

I personally wouldn't want to get Randall in the 1st I feel there is more impact players we could draft there instead. However, the way his stock is rising so fast and plenty of teams need a safety. The Colts might just need to pull the trigger on him in the 1st. I could see that happening especially if Grigson sees him as his guy.

I'm sure Dustin don't want him he's just saying Grigson will prolly take and I think he's prolly right Grigs 1st rounders have all sucked except for Luck and that one a blind guy could get correct

[SDakColts]

I'm sure Dustin don't want him he's just saying Grigson will prolly take and I think he's prolly right Grigs 1st rounders have all sucked except for Luck and that one a blind guy could get correct

I understand, I figured Dustin didn't want to take him in the 1st. I was just stating my opinion that I personally wouldn't want him in the 1st either. I agree that Grigson could very well pull the trigger on him like I said if Grigson sees him as his guy that is most likely who he is going to spend his 1st on. Plus there is a lot of buzz about the Colts being very interested in him. I guess we will see.

[Archer]

 

Round 1

1. Tampa Bay (2-14) - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
2. Tennessee (2-14) - Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3. Jacksonville (3-13) - Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida
4. Oakland (3-13) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5. Washington (4-12) - Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
6. New York Jets (4-12) - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7. Chicago (5-11) - Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
8. Atlanta (6-10) - Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
9. New York Giants (6-10) - Brandon Schreff, G, Iowa
10. St. Louis (6-10) - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11. Minnesota (7-9) - Trae Waynes, CB, MSU
12. Cleveland (7-9) - DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13. New Orleans (7-9) - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
14. Miami (8-8) - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCS
15. San Francisco (8-8) - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16. Houston (9-7) - Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
17. San Diego (9-7) - Andrus Peat, T, Stanford
18. Kansas City (9-7) - La'El Collins, OT/G, LSU
19. Cleveland - from Buffalo (9-7) - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
20. Philadelphia (10-6) - Byron Jones, CB/S, UConn
21. Cincinnati* (10-5-1) - T.J. Clemmings, OT/G, Pitt
22. Pittsburgh* (11-5) - Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
23. Detroit* (11-5) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
24. Arizona* (11-5) - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25. Carolina* (7-8-1) - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA 
26. Baltimore* (10-6) - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
27. Dallas* (12-4) - Landon Collins, S, Alabama
28. Denver* (12-4) - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
29. Indianapolis* (11-5) - Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State
30. Green Bay* (12-4) - Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31. New Orleans - from Seattle* (12-4) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
32. New England* (12-4) - Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU

 

 

Very well done, Dustin.  I really believe the 1st round will fall similar to this.  Things I agree with that others are missing: Kevin Johnson as the #2 CB and long-gone before #29, Humphries (injury-prone) and Ereck Flowers (consistency) being the falling OTs, the RBs going in the early 20s and in that order, Landon Collins falling (I think out of round 1 IMHO), and surprise DBs based on how teams perceive them fitting their systems (Darby and Jones).  I've kicked around the idea of Grigson pulling the Randall pick in the 1st, and I don't think it's far-fetched.  I also think that he could do a similar thing with Donovan Smith, OT, Penn St. if faced with the choices left to him in your scenario.  Both players are likely much more highly rated among scouts and GMs than draftniks and unlikely to actually be available to the Colts in round 2.

[Colts_Fan12]

I understand, I figured Dustin didn't want to take him in the 1st. I was just stating my opinion that I personally wouldn't want him in the 1st either. I agree that Grigson could very well pull the trigger on him like I said if Grigson sees him as his guy that is most likely who he is going to spend his 1st on. Plus there is a lot of buzz about the Colts being very interested in him. I guess we will see.

yeah I don't want him in the first either I hope Grigs won't do that...

[jvan1973]

Not an oversight on my part. I don't think he's good.

If Ray gets out of the first round without being drafted, Charles Davis head will explode. He has him as his third best defensive player

[Dustin]

If Ray gets out of the first round without being drafted, Charles Davis head will explode. He has him as his third best defensive player

 

A lot of guys like him. I know he can run fast, but he ran a 7.7 three-cone. For agility, that's basically the same as running a 5.3 forty.