Percentage projections

[oldunclemark]

We have all heard that, based on past seasons, a 1-2 team has a 16% chance of making the playoff and an 1-3 team has an 8% chance....so on and so forth..

Announcers keep saying that you sure dont want to drop to 1-3 because that leaves you just an 8% chance..

Technically. I dont think that's true. Not at all.

All past numbers prove is that THOSE teams grouped together as one (which they never were and cant be) had a

collective 16% chance. It does not mean that any one of those teams had a 16% chance...

...and it has no bearing on the future at all..

For example...The Colts and Packers are both 1-2.

But the Packers are 0-1 in their division...while Indy is 1-0 in their division.

The Packers are 1-0 at home.Indy is 0-1

..and all opponents are not equal...Indy and Green Bay do not play the same schedule going forward.

The % chance of making the playoffs based 3/16 of past years results is a totally meaningless statistic that has absolutely no value in reality. It SOUNDS like it means something but it means nothing.

There is no mathematically solid way to predict any team will do based on any previous season.

Even if you give the disclaimer that the stat is not a 'predictor' it is clearly not used that way.

Its a stat that is intentionally misleading....because it sounds like it makes sense when it is nonsense.

[Dustin]

based on past seasons, a 1-2 team has a 16% chance of making the playoff 

 

That's not what the stats is. The stat is that "16% of 1-2 teams make the playoffs". Anybody who describes it the way you are saying is wrong. 

[oldunclemark]

That's not what the stats is. The stat is that "16% of 1-2 teams make the playoffs". Anybody who describes it the way you are saying is wrong.

But based on past years, it is totally irrevelant..it only refers to past years which are gone

It cannot speak to the present day, those same teams (which have different players) or the teams they will face.

Its a cotton candy stat...seems sweet but there's nothing real in there

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

Gambler's folly. 

[Girlzarefanstoo]

I just know it's no fun being that team that's 1-3 (2007) we came back to be 11-5 and make the playoffs.  Lot of acrimony against teams, coaches et al when that happens :-)  I much prefer a more drama free season!

[amfootball]

We have all heard that, based on past seasons, a 1-2 team has a 16% chance of making the playoff and an 1-3 team has an 8% chance....so on and so forth..

Announcers keep saying that you sure dont want to drop to 1-3 because that leaves you just an 8% chance..

Technically. I dont think that's true. Not at all.

All past numbers prove is that THOSE teams grouped together as one (which they never were and cant be) had a

collective 16% chance. It does not mean that any one of those teams had a 16% chance...

...and it has no bearing on the future at all..

For example...The Colts and Packers are both 1-2.

But the Packers are 0-1 in their division...while Indy is 1-0 in their division.

The Packers are 1-0 at home.Indy is 0-1

..and all opponents are not equal...Indy and Green Bay do not play the same schedule going forward.

The % chance of making the playoffs based 3/16 of past years results is a totally meaningless statistic that has absolutely no value in reality. It SOUNDS like it means something but it means nothing.

There is no mathematically solid way to predict any team will do based on any previous season.

Even if you give the disclaimer that the stat is not a 'predictor' it is clearly not used that way.

Its a stat that is intentionally misleading....because it sounds like it makes sense when it is nonsense.

At this point, the Colts are maybe the 6 or 7 best team in the AFC and will battle Houston just to win the division. I expect the Colts to win the South but I think it will be a dog fight. If they don't win the division then they are out as the two wild cards will be whoever finishes second in the West between Denver and SD and then a three way battle in the North between the Bengals/Ravens/Steelers.

 

In terms of GB, they are in a world of trouble. Right now they are the third best team in their division and probably the 10 best team in the NFC. The only way they make it in is to win their division and I don't think that happens this year.

[crazycolt1]

Being 3rd or 8th at this point in the season makes no difference. There are 13 games yet to be played. Any team can get hot and rip off 8-10 wins a row. If a team starts 0-2 and then wins the next 8 is no difference than a team starting 8-0 then losing 2. Bottom line is both teams are 8-2. I think we still put too much attention to stats. There are stats to measure just about anything you care to relate to and can be manipulated to any point being made.

[jvan1973]

But based on past years, it is totally irrevelant..it only refers to past years which are gone

It cannot speak to the present day, those same teams (which have different players) or the teams they will face.

Its a cotton candy stat...seems sweet but there's nothing real in there

Its not a protection going forward, its the percentage of teams in the past

[oldunclemark]

Its not a protection going forward, its the percentage of teams in the past

But it is USED as a projection going forward..Its presented that way....on ESPN all the time..

And 'J'..it really isn't a percentage of any team in the past, eitehr. Its a grouping of all teams in the past and a collecetive result in hindsight..Its a stat with absolutely no value going forward OR looking back...

There could not be a stat that is more misleading.

[BrentMc11]

You got to know when to hold em....know when to fold em...know when to walk away.....(My inner Kenny Rogers came out)

 

The Colts have a 100% chance of making the playoffs in my stats.....carry on!!  

[jvan1973]

But it is USED as a projection going forward..Its presented that way....on ESPN all the time..

And 'J'..it really isn't a percentage of any team in the past, eitehr. Its a grouping of all teams in the past and a collecetive result in hindsight..Its a stat with absolutely no value going forward OR looking back...

There could not be a stat that is more misleading.

it is a stat for going back. Collectively, all teams that have started 0-2 have made the playoffs 16% of the time

[Jay Kirk]

You got to know when to hold em....know when to fold em...know when to walk away.....(My inner Kenny Rogers came out)

 

The Colts have a 100% chance of making the playoffs in my stats.....carry on!!  

Getting better on both sides of the line every week ! If we stay healthy this team will be the beast we"ve been looking for IMO. :thmsup:

[yakimacanutt]

Getting better on both sides of the line every week ! If we stay healthy this team will be the beast we"ve been looking for IMO. :thmsup:

Just play Jacksonville every week and the team will look great and the fans will clamor, "Super Bowl."

[Jay Kirk]

Just play Jacksonville every week and the team will look great and the fans will clamor, "Super Bowl."

With all do respect we should be 3-0 ,Shot ourself in the foot in Denver and the lack of compitent officials cost us the Philly game.

[SubZero]

With all do respect we should be 3-0 ,Shot ourself in the foot in Denver and the lack of compitent officials cost us the Philly game.

The officiating was horrible but the second half was a terrible performance overall. Luck struggled mightily, Richardson fumbled, Peps play calling was atrocious, the defense was gassed and couldn't stop Sproles. The Colts self imploded in the second half.

[shakedownstreet]

*** slowly clicks away from thread ***

[-JJ-]

But based on past years, it is totally irrevelant..it only refers to past years which are gone

It cannot speak to the present day, those same teams (which have different players) or the teams they will face.

Its a cotton candy stat...seems sweet but there's nothing real in there

Well of course it can't predict now- that's like saying no chance to roll snake eye odds.

Its just past odds and really in no way prohibits a team from breaking it.

 

still 16% is 16 %

[Derakynn]

The officiating was horrible but the second half was a terrible performance overall. Luck struggled mightily, Richardson fumbled, Peps play calling was atrocious, the defense was gassed and couldn't stop Sproles. The Colts self imploded in the second half.

That logic can be applied either way. None of that matters because the officials blew massive calls that directly correlated to the loss. Just because A and B exist doesn't mean they aren't both important. Everyone tries to brush off the official talk. It is no less important than anything else that happened. Besides, we were still about to go 10 up with like 4 mins to play reguardless of what had happened prior to those calls. You can't bring up something farther in the past to argue against the present or future. The people who died in the Chernobyl incident died because the Arch Duke of Austro-Hungary or wherever was assassinated. You can link it, but the past doesn't justify the future.

[SubZero]

That logic can be applied either way. None of that matters because the officials blew massive calls that directly correlated to the loss. Just because A and B exist doesn't mean they aren't both important. Everyone tries to brush off the official talk. It is no less important than anything else that happened. Besides, we were still about to go 10 up with like 4 mins to play reguardless of what had happened prior to those calls. You can't bring up something farther in the past to argue against the present or future. The people who died in the Chernobyl incident died because the Arch Duke of Austro-Hungary or wherever was assassinated. You can link it, but the past doesn't justify the future.

I see your point. I wasn't trying to just brush off the officiating, and your right because it did directly correlate with the loss. My point was you really cant blame ONLY the refs. Many people just mention the refs when there were so much more that factored into the loss. The refs, the fumble, gassed defense, Lucks struggles, offensive play calling, all if these factor into the loss. You really cant single one out.