0-16 For Colts And Dolphins Scenario

[Grav]

If colts and fins fin 0-16 who gets no.1? who has had the hardest schedule?

[ruksak]

If colts and fins fin 0-16 who gets no.1? who has had the hardest schedule?

Weakest schedule....going 0-16 vs the weakest schedule indicates the worst team. In the event that ties, they coin flip.

[Coltsagent]

strength of schedule, then divisional & conference records and if still tied coin flip

[dn4192]

Weakest schedule....going 0-16 vs the weakest schedule indicates the worst team. In the event that ties, they coin flip.

Okay at this point who has had the easiest schedule?

[tonychen]

strength of schedule, then divisional & conference records and if still tied coin flip

As far as both go 0-16 the divisional and conference records should not make any difference.

About strength of schedule, does it mean the W-L record of the opponents this year, or sth. else?

[MAC]

Okay at this point who has had the easiest schedule?

I'd say the Dolphins based on a quick look. I was already thinking about the Colts strength of schedule because it's occurred to me that some of the "easy" games they've had turned out to be against decent teams. The Browns are 3-4, the Chiefs 3-3, everyone else has a winning record. Such a strange year.

Of course that's only considering teams played to this point. The Jaguars and Panthers are on the horizon. Hopefully we'll beat them and avoid this absurd situation altogether.

Edited October 31, 2011 by MAC

[Gonzo]

Don't forget we're in the AFC south and they're in the east. It's possible that 3 teams could have winning records in their division. Not so likely in this division. We just need to cross our fingers and hope we can manage to lose to the Jags twice.

[Grav]

so currently its the dolphins?

[ruksak]

Okay at this point who has had the easiest schedule?

This morning on NFLN, they said the Phins would get the #1 as of now.

[Malakai432]

That sucks, the Dolphins need to start winning......

[CR91]

Don't forget we're in the AFC south and they're in the east. It's possible that 3 teams could have winning records in their division. Not so likely in this division. We just need to cross our fingers and hope we can manage to lose to the Jags twice.

oh trust me mjd is gonna have a big smile on his face when he gets to play us

[FireJimCaldwell]

As of right now we aren't even tied with them. Or I should say they aren't even tied with us due to us having the worst record. Even if they were 0-8 too, we would have an easier schedule based on our opponents records for all 16 games. The #'s will have a slight change after MNF.

1) Indy 0-8 .536 sos .483 remaining schedule

2) Mia 0-7 .558 sos .565 RS

3) Ari 1-6 .495 sos .476 RS

4) STL 1-6 .561 sos .500 RS

5) Car 2-6 .504 sos .533 RS

6) JAX 2-6 .508 sos .414 RS

7) Min 2-6 .574 sos .603 RS

8) Sea 2-5 .504 sos .429 RS

9) Den 2-5 .582 sos .557 RS

On paper Miami only has two games that they should even be able to win: KC & Wash,

While our best chances at win will be the two Jacksonville games, a slim chance vs. Carolina and another slim chance vs. Tennessee.

Arizona & Seattle & St. Louis will all play each other a # of times so they could each get a win or two.

Edited October 31, 2011 by firejimcaldwell

[BlueStallion]

That sucks, the Dolphins need to start winning......

Dolphins almost upset the Giants, but they somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory!

[Balzer40]

This morning on NFLN, they said the Phins would get the #1 as of now.

I think they are wrong. Indy, by far has the easier schedule. Not only that, but "as of now" the Colts have a worse record.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Balzer40

[FireJimCaldwell]

I think they are wrong. Indy, by far has the easier schedule. Not only that, but "as of now" the Colts have a worse record.

If you count only opponents played we have played opponents that are 35-23 to the Dolphins 28-21 so up till now they have played a weaker schedule, but when you go ahead and add in the records of all the teams on each schedule ours is the weaker of the two.

[Balzer40]

If you count only opponents played we have played opponents that are 35-23 to the Dolphins 28-21 so up till now they have played a weaker schedule, but when you go ahead and add in the records of all the teams on each schedule ours is the weaker of the two.

Yeah, thats what I was going by. Miami's remaining schedule is much stronger than ours.

[Superman]

I'd say the Dolphins based on a quick look. I was already thinking about the Colts strength of schedule because it's occurred to me that some of the "easy" games they've had turned out to be against decent teams. The Browns are 3-4, the Chiefs 3-3, everyone else has a winning record. Such a strange year.

Of course that's only considering teams played to this point. The Jaguars and Panthers are on the horizon. Hopefully we'll beat them and avoid this absurd situation altogether.

Isn't it strength of schedule based on 2010's results? The Colts are playing a division winner schedule (two first place teams round out our opponents), while the Dolphins are playing a third place schedule (two third place teams round out their schedule). I always assumed that's how they break the tie there, but haven't done anything to figure out if that's accurate or not.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Isn't it strength of schedule based on 2010's results? The Colts are playing a division winner schedule (two first place teams round out our opponents), while the Dolphins are playing a third place schedule (two third place teams round out their schedule). I always assumed that's how they break the tie there, but haven't done anything to figure out if that's accurate or not.

It's based on the current year.

[ruksak]

Isn't it strength of schedule based on 2010's results? The Colts are playing a division winner schedule (two first place teams round out our opponents), while the Dolphins are playing a third place schedule (two third place teams round out their schedule). I always assumed that's how they break the tie there, but haven't done anything to figure out if that's accurate or not.

Wel....It depends on how you define this qoute from the link I posted awhile back on this;

Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. The team with the lowest strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and picks ahead of all other teams with the same record.

http://football.abou...tdraftorder.htm

I understand that as meaning from the year that has just ended, as it was the "previous season".

Edited November 1, 2011 by ruksak

[Andy]

The team with the weaker schedule goes first, in that case the Fins go first I think. Then the Colts get the first pick in the 2nd round, and the FIns in the 3rd, Colts in 4th, Fins in 5th, Colts in 6th, Fins in 7th.

[ruksak]

The team with the weaker schedule goes first, in that case the Fins go first I think. Then the Colts get the first pick in the 2nd round, and the FIns in the 3rd, Colts in 4th, Fins in 5th, Colts in 6th, Fins in 7th.

Correct.

Rounds 2-7

• In subsequent rounds, teams with the same record rotate draft positions regardless of whether or not they made the playoffs. The only exception is the Super Bowl teams, who always pick last.

[Superman]

Wel....It depends on how you define this qoute from the link I posted awhile back on this;

http://football.abou...tdraftorder.htm

I understand that as meaning from the year that has just ended, as it was the "previous season".

I'm sure this will either be clarified or nullified as time goes on. I guess all we can do is root against the teams that beat us, which is hard when so many of them play each other.

[Yehoodi]

Wel....It depends on how you define this qoute from the link I posted awhile back on this;

http://football.abou...tdraftorder.htm

I understand that as meaning from the year that has just ended, as it was the "previous season".

Ruksak, thanks for the link, but it is not from the NFL site, so i am a tad skepical . . . the NFL tends to be consistent in its rulings, and as such, I would think it would simply be the opposite of a playoff tied breaker . . .

so it would be . . . lowest SOS for this year . . . i could be wrong but logic would dictate that it would be the one with the weakest schedule, and unlike your link, for the current season . . .my two cents . . .

if it was for last year, then we would know who is in the lead and it would not change unless they win a game, my sense would be that had it has already been decided . . . we would be hearing something like "Miami is in the lead and it is there draft pick to loss (or win as they say)" . . . but if it is base on SOS for this year, that fact will not be know till Jan. 1

Edited November 1, 2011 by Yehoodi

[MAC]

Isn't it strength of schedule based on 2010's results? The Colts are playing a division winner schedule (two first place teams round out our opponents), while the Dolphins are playing a third place schedule (two third place teams round out their schedule). I always assumed that's how they break the tie there, but haven't done anything to figure out if that's accurate or not.

I honestly have no idea. I assumed they meant this year since that would be more fair, but I haven't read the rules myself.

[super8todd]

If you look at Miami's upcoming schedule it looks much more difficult than ours. When all is said and done their better AFC East division would help our chances at having the easier schedule. The Jags and Titans will certainly help our case, whereas if the Jets continue to do better, then we will have the lock.

[ruksak]

Ruksak, thanks for the link, but it is not from the NFL site, so i am a tad skepical . . . the NFL tends to be consistent in its rulings, and as such, I would think it would simply be the opposite of a playoff tied breaker . . .

so it would be . . . lowest SOS for this year . . . i could be wrong but logic would dictate that it would be the one with the weakest schedule, and unlike your link, for the current season . . .my two cents . . .

if it was for last year, then we would know who is in the lead and it would not change unless they win a game, my sense would be that had it has already been decided . . . we would be hearing something like "Miami is in the lead and it is there draft pick to loss (or win as they say)" . . . but if it is base on SOS for this year, that fact will not be know till Jan. 1

I've dug deep and was unable to find a different source to verify.

It's delving into the realm of semantics, and they should have written it more clearly, however isn't the season declared over at the conclusion of the SB? If so, than the "previous season" would be the season that just occurred. As well, it makes more sense than reverting back essentially two seasons.

As I understand it, again, in the link I provided they stipulate the team with the weakest SOS wins the tie-breaker, garnering the first overall selection in the draft.

[MAC]

It's delving into the realm of semantics, and they should have written it more clearly, however isn't the season declared over at the conclusion of the SB? If so, than the "previous season" would be the season that just occurred. As well, it makes more sense than reverting back essentially two seasons.

This is perhaps the most sublime logic ever written by a person wearing a bag over his head.

[FireJimCaldwell]

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

• Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
  
• The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
  
• The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  
• The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  
• The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

When you total the strength of schedule for the teams that each have played:

0-8 Colts 35-23 .603

0-7 Dolphins 28-21 .571

But when you add in the complete schedule at this point:

1) Indy 0-8 .536 sos .483 remaining schedule

2) Mia 0-7 .558 sos .565 RS

3) Ari 1-6 .495 sos .476 RS

4) STL 1-6 .561 sos .500 RS

5) Car 2-6 .504 sos .533 RS

6) JAX 2-6 .508 sos .414 RS

7) Min 2-6 .574 sos .603 RS

8) Sea 2-5 .504 sos .429 RS

9) Den 2-5 .582 sos .557 RS

All this was posted above.

[ruksak]

http://www.nfl.com/s...akingprocedures

When you total the strength of schedule for the teams that each have played:

0-8 Colts 35-23 .603

0-7 Dolphins 28-21 .571

But when you add in the complete schedule at this point:

1) Indy 0-8 .536 sos .483 remaining schedule

2) Mia 0-7 .558 sos .565 RS

3) Ari 1-6 .495 sos .476 RS

4) STL 1-6 .561 sos .500 RS

5) Car 2-6 .504 sos .533 RS

6) JAX 2-6 .508 sos .414 RS

7) Min 2-6 .574 sos .603 RS

8) Sea 2-5 .504 sos .429 RS

9) Den 2-5 .582 sos .557 RS

All this was posted above.

Good job digging up the link from an official source. Me and Google don't always get along, and I couldn't find it.

Of course the remaining schedule and any predictions are a complete mathematical rats nest as of now.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Good job digging up the link from an official source. Me and Google don't always get along, and I couldn't find it.

Of course the remaining schedule and any predictions are a complete mathematical rats nest as of now.

Obviously the KC/SD game will alter it some, as will every other game, but right now, that's how it is.

[Blue Horseshoe]

The diference is that the Dolphins are not a horrible team. They have been in every game and have even led several late only to lose them in crazy ways. The Colts have hardly been in any games and have been blown clear out of the stadium several times.

The Dolphins are going to win some ball games while the Colts will be lucky to steal one vs the Jags.

[bayone]

Wel....It depends on how you define this qoute from the link I posted awhile back on this;

http://football.abou...tdraftorder.htm

I understand that as meaning from the year that has just ended, as it was the "previous season".

Thats how I read it too,. based on last years record, but really to make sense should be this years

[Jason_]

I was never sure on this either so did some searching:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81d6b708/article/complete-order-of-first-round-of-2011-nfl-draft-determined

If ties exist in any grouping except (A) above, they will be broken by strength of schedule (i.e., figuring the aggregate won-lost-tied percentage of each involved club's regular-season opponents and awarding preferential selection order to the club which faced the schedule of teams with the lowest aggregate won-lost-tied percentage).

Based on that it sounds like this current season, so the strength of schedule would likely be determined at the time of the draft if it needed to be applied.

[oldunclemark]

The diference is that the Dolphins are not a horrible team. They have been in every game and have even led several late only to lose them in crazy ways. The Colts have hardly been in any games and have been blown clear out of the stadium several times.

The Dolphins are going to win some ball games while the Colts will be lucky to steal one vs the Jags.

Miami is REALLY Bad..

They folded against Tim Tebow....'nuff said.

[Yehoodi]

I've dug deep and was unable to find a different source to verify.

It's delving into the realm of semantics, and they should have written it more clearly, however isn't the season declared over at the conclusion of the SB? If so, than the "previous season" would be the season that just occurred. As well, it makes more sense than reverting back essentially two seasons.

As I understand it, again, in the link I provided they stipulate the team with the weakest SOS wins the tie-breaker, garnering the first overall selection in the draft.

Yes I see it now, it makes sense to me . . . as the normal tiebreakers were are dealing with the playoffs and the season is still going on . . . and would thus be the 'present' season . . . and after the season is over when the draft order is set up, we are dealing with the previous season . . . okay . . . thxs . . .

[bap1331]

if peyton comes back in december then maybe we will be 2-14. so we dont have to worry about going winless. its not like we are going to pick up Luck anyway.

The best thing we CAN do is trade for more picks. The last thing we need is to give our 2nd or 3rd pick a $100 million contract. The lower the pick, the more we have to pay him!

[Coltsman1788]

The team with the weaker schedule goes first, in that case the Fins go first I think. Then the Colts get the first pick in the 2nd round, and the FIns in the 3rd, Colts in 4th, Fins in 5th, Colts in 6th, Fins in 7th.

Very informative thread. I knew strength of schedule favored the weaker one in regards to draft positon but was unaware that they measured by the previous season or that who picked first in subsequent rounds alternated between the two teams. Thanks guys.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Very informative thread. I knew strength of schedule favored the weaker one in regards to draft positon but was unaware that they measured by the previous season or that who picked first in subsequent rounds alternated between the two teams. Thanks guys.

I'm not so sure that last part is accurate. The only time I remember the NFL flipping picks like that was when Jacksonville & Carolina both entered the league at the same time.

If teams A & B tie at 0-16, or 1-15, or whatever, then the team with the weakest schedule strength would pick 1st in each round.