2014 Colts Roster

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Here's my (ideal) 2014 Colts' roster.  (based on my CURRENT evaluations of pro and college players from around the league and country.)  I will be updating this periodically.

 

Blue are draft picks, Red are free agent acquisitions. Green are our own FA re-singings.

 

Feel free to critique, I'm open to suggestions. 

 

In the draft, we trade our late 3rd and 7th round picks for a mid 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks.

So we would have a 2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th, and 6th round picks. (Instead of 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th.)

 

The money to sign everyone in this mock would be tight (maybe impossible) but keep in mind: Brown, DHB, McGlynn, and Bethea are not resigned (among others), and Satele has been cut.

 

OFFENSE

QB-  Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck

HB-  Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard, Tyler Gaffney (UDFA-Stanford), Chris Rainey (ERFA)

FB-  Stanley Havili

WR- Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin (UFA), Da' Rick Rogers, LaVon Brazill

TE-   Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, C.J. Fiedorowicz (5th Rd pick-Iowa), Jack Doyle

LT-   Anthony Castonzo, Joe Reitz (RFA)

LG-  Donald Thomas, Chris Watt (6th Rd pick-Notre Dame)

C-    Alex Mack (UFA), Khaled Holmes

RG- Hugh Thornton

RT-  Gosder Cherilus

 

DEFENSE

DE-  Cory Redding, Arthur Jones (UFA), Ben Gardner (UDFA-Stanford)

NT-  Josh Chapman, Terrence Cody (UFA)

DT-  Ricky Jean Francois, Montori Hughes

SLB-Eric Walden, Bjoern Werner

ILB- Jerrell Freeman, Josh McNary, Mario Harvey

ILB- Donald Butler (UFA), Chris Borland (4th Rd pick-Wisconsin), Kelvin Sheppard 

RLB-Robert Mathis, Cam Johnson (ERFA)

RCB-Vontae Davis (UFA), Darqueze Dennard (2nd Rd pick-Michigan St.)

LCB-Greg Toler, Darius Butler, Josh Gordy (RFA)

SS-  LaRon Landry,  Corey Lynch

FS-  Delano Howell, Ahmad Dixon (5th Rd-pick-Baylor), Sergio Brown (UFA)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-   Adam Vinatieri (UFA)

P-   Pat McAfee (UFA)

LS- Matt Overton

 

 

Notes on drafted and signed players.

 

(Resigned Players)

Chris Rainey-RB-Exclusive Rights FA- Keep Rainey for kick and punt returns, and use him on

                                                             offense occasionally as a scat back.

 

Joe Reitz-LT-Restricted FA-                 Sign Reitz to an offer sheet with a low round tender.  He's  

                                                             a valuable backup, is able to play both tackle and guard.

 

Cam Johnson-RLB-ERFA-                    Keep Johnson for depth, and continue to develop him.

 

Vontae Davis-CB-Unrestricted FA-       Too much invested in Davis to let him walk.  Hopefully his 

                                                             inconsistent play will help keep his price down a little.  But he

                                                             is still a top flight CB and will be paid accordingly.

 

Josh Gordy-CB-Restricted FA-             Sign Gordy to an offer sheet for a low tender, but hopefully        

                                                             we find a better 5th corner in preseason. 

 

Sergio Brown-S-Unrestricted FA-         Brown deserves to be resigned.  He has become a real bright 

                                                             spot on an otherwise mediocre at best special teams unit.

 

Adam Vinatieri-K-Unrestriced FA-         Adam stil has it, and I would expect him to have it for 2 more

                                                             years.  

 

Pat McAfee-P-Unrestricted FA-            McAfee has not been as good this year as he has been, but I 

                                                             would still like to see him stay a Colt.

 

(Singed Free Agents)

Jeremy Maclin-WR-Unrestricted FA-     Maclin is the player I would like to get for our WR corps.  If        

                                                             he's healthy and as long as it doesn't break the bank, I feel

                                                             he is the best player available to groom into Reggie's long 

                                                             term replacement.  This strategy is dependent on Rogers 

                                                             being the stud we hope he is.  Otherwise the draft will be  

                                                             better suited to find a new WR.  (We need a big WR, so if 

                                                             Rogers can fill that roll, I'm more comfortable with going after 

                                                             Maclin as a supplement to Rogers, Hilton, and Wayne.)

 

Alex Mack-C-Unrestricted FA-               Pro Bowl Center in his prime.  He will probably end up being

                                                             the highest paid center in the NFL wherever he lands, and

                                                             he'd be worth every penny.

 

Arthur Jones-DE-Unrestricted FA-        Pagano ties and scheme fit.  Won't be the most expensive

                                                             free agent, so it would be good to get him into a rotational

                                                             role with Redding, as Cory plays out the final year of his

                                                             contract.  Then Jones would be the full time starter in 2015.

 

Terrence Cody-NT-Unrestricted FA-    Another former Pagano player.  Also a former teammate of 

                                                             Josh Chapman at Alabama.  We would have a good rotation 

                                                             with these two guys, keeping them fresh all game long.

 

Donald Butler-ILB-Unrestricted FA-      Young and underrated linebacker.  Comes from a 3-4 in San

                                                             Diego and would be the perfect compliment to Freeman in the 

                                                             middle of the defense.

 

(Draft Picks)

Darqueze Dennard-CB-Mich.St. 2nd-   The closest I've seen to a shutdown corner in college football

                                                             this season.  He hasn't faced a top tier wideout all year, but  

                                                             he's still easily the best player on one of the best defenses in                      

                                                             the country.

 

Chris Borland-ILB-Wisconsin-4th rd-    One of the best defensive players in the entire Big Ten.  

                                                             What he lacks in athleticism he makes up for with elite

                                                             instincts.  Another player that probably won't put up great  

                                                             combine numbers, and will be a steal in the 4th round.

 

Ahmad Dixon-S-Baylor-5th round-        Best defensive player on a surprisingly good defense at  

                                                             Baylor.  Can play center fielder and can play in the box.

                                                             Pagano likes to have safeties that can play both, and Dixon is 

                                                             a hard hitting safety with range.

                                                             

C.J. Fiedorowicz-TE-Iowa-5th round-   C.J. is an outstanding TE.  Both as a point of the attack and

                                                             downfield blocker.  He would immediately help with Pep's

                                                             power formations, because he is also a receiving threat.

                                                             He's a huge target, and would be a great to have in the red          

                                                             zone.  He's way too talented to last to the fifth round, but he

                                                             he will post a poor 40 time at the Combine and fall off the

                                                             map for most teams. (Think Dwayne Allen) Plus, there is a ton    

                                                             of TE talent in front of him.  

 

 

Chris Watt-OG-Notre Dame-6th round-Another o-line project for Grigson.  Far from a top prospect,

                                                             but enough talent to develop into a quality depth player.  His

                                                             strength is pass protection, not run blocking.  He has good 

                                                             athleticism for a guard, and is a good fit on the left side.

                                                             

Ben Gardner-DE-Stanford-UDFA-       Gardner will need to pack on the pounds to be a fit at 3-4 DE  

                                                             in the NFL.  If he does, he could be a viable depth player.

 

Tyler Gaffney-RB-Stanford-UDFA-       Familiar with Pep and the power scheme, and played with  

                                                             Luck  in 2011.  Good downhill, no nonsense runner.  Perfect      

                                                             scheme fit, but without overwhelming talent, he should be               

                                                             there to pick up after the draft.

 

 

Everyone feel free to throw your own ideas at my mock and have some fun with it!

[rock8591]

I'm big on Arthur Jones. Not so much Mount Cody; good run stopper, but TOTAL liability in pass rush. His 40 time is probably around 7.0 by now.

 

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I'm big on Arthur Jones. Not so much Mount Cody; good run stopper, but TOTAL liability in pass rush. His 40 time is probably around 7.0

All he has to do is seal off the blockers for our linebackers, and get a decent push. I like the idea of having an Alabama tandem as our nose tackles.

[Andy]

Delano Howell... starter?

 

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Delano Howell... starter?

He showed a lot of promise in his limited action. I think he could be the starter, and if not, safety will be a point of emphasis in the next offseason in no else steps up.

 

 

[arkana04]

Arthur Jones seems to have a lot of fans on this forum. 

[coltsfanatic24]

I think will draft a WR with our first pick and it's a bigger need then CB. Wayne is 35 coming off an injury, Maclin is coming off an injury as well. Rogers has potential but at his best i see a #2 WR which is fine. Too much uncertainty at the position, Luck needs his #1 WR for the future and this draft is loaded with WR's. In the 3rd we should look for Bethea's replacement at safety.

[Nobody]

CJ will never last that far

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I think will draft a WR with our first pick and it's a bigger need then CB. Wayne is 35 coming off an injury, Maclin is coming off an injury as well. Rogers has potential but at his best i see a #2 WR which is fine. Too much uncertainty at the position, Luck needs his #1 WR for the future and this draft is loaded with WR's. In the 3rd we should look for Bethea's replacement at safety.

Totally agree.  My draft at the moment is based on the fact that Rogers will be a stud (obviously that's no guarantee).  If Roger's fails to be that big play target for Luck, then the draft is where I would go for a WR, and early.  I'm also hoping that Howell will come back healthy and that his play earlier this season wasn't a fluke, and he can be a reliable starter.  I think we could get by with Howell and Dixon as the third safety, and deal with that position in the 2015 offseason if we need to.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

CJ will never last that far

I'm not convinced he will either.  But I don't think teams will view him as a viable receiving TE because he's not a very fast guy at all.  I get the feeling he will fall after the combine.  There's also a lot of TEs this year that should go in front of him.  Ebron, Seferian-Jenkins, and Amaro just to name a few.

[Nobody]

I'm not convinced he will either. But I don't think teams will view him as a viable receiving TE because he's not a very fast guy at all. I get the feeling he will fall after the combine. There's also a lot of TEs this year that should go in front of him. Ebron, Seferian-Jenkins, and Amaro just to name a few.

Amaro has said he's staying. CJ just won't last that long, he's not slow or something.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Amaro has said he's staying. CJ just won't last that long, he's not slow or something.

I haven't heard that about Amaro, can you give me a link or something?  And Fiedorowicz's latest 40 time was 4.85.  He's not beating anyone with his legs, but he is the best blocking TE in the draft.

[BOTT]

Colts don't have a 4th round pick

I like Maclin, but I'm not too keen on picking another player with a injury history...2 ACL tears

[Gibbons180]

Here's my (ideal) 2014 Colts' roster.  (based on my CURRENT evaluations of pro and college players from around the league and country.)  I will be updating this periodically.

 

Blue are draft picks, Red are free agent acquisitions. Green are our own FA re-singings.

 

Feel free to critique, I'm open to suggestions. 

 

In the draft, we trade our late 3rd and 7th round picks for a mid 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks.

So we would have a 2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th, and 6th round picks. (Instead of 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th.)

 

The money to sign everyone in this mock would be tight (maybe impossible) but keep in mind: Brown, DHB, McGlynn, and Bethea are not resigned (among others), and Satele has been cut.

 

OFFENSE

QB-  Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck

HB-  Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard, Tyler Gaffney (UDFA-Stanford), Chris Rainey (ERFA)

FB-  Stanley Havili

WR- Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin (UFA), Da' Rick Rogers, LaVon Brazill

TE-   Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, C.J. Fiedorowicz (5th Rd pick-Iowa), Jack Doyle

LT-   Anthony Castonzo, Joe Reitz (RFA)

LG-  Donald Thomas, Chris Watt (6th Rd pick-Notre Dame)

C-    Alex Mack (UFA), Khaled Holmes

RG- Hugh Thornton

RT-  Gosder Cherilus

 

DEFENSE

DE-  Cory Redding, Arthur Jones (UFA), Ben Gardner (UDFA-Stanford)

NT-  Josh Chapman, Terrence Cody (UFA)

DT-  Ricky Jean Francois, Montori Hughes

SLB-Eric Walden, Bjoern Werner

ILB- Jerrell Freeman, Josh McNary, Mario Harvey

ILB- Donald Butler (UFA), Chris Borland (4th Rd pick-Wisconsin), Kelvin Sheppard 

RLB-Robert Mathis, Cam Johnson (ERFA)

RCB-Vontae Davis (UFA), Darqueze Dennard (2nd Rd pick-Michigan St.)

LCB-Greg Toler, Darius Butler, Josh Gordy (RFA)

SS-  LaRon Landry,  Corey Lynch

FS-  Delano Howell, Ahmad Dixon (5th Rd-pick-Baylor), Sergio Brown (UFA)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-   Adam Vinatieri (UFA)

P-   Pat McAfee (UFA)

LS- Matt Overton

 

 

Notes on drafted and signed players.

 

(Resigned Players)

Chris Rainey-RB-Exclusive Rights FA- Keep Rainey for kick and punt returns, and use him on

                                                             offense occasionally as a scat back.

 

Joe Reitz-LT-Restricted FA-                 Sign Reitz to an offer sheet with a low round tender.  He's  

                                                             a valuable backup, is able to play both tackle and guard.

 

Cam Johnson-RLB-ERFA-                    Keep Johnson for depth, and continue to develop him.

 

Vontae Davis-CB-Unrestricted FA-       Too much invested in Davis to let him walk.  Hopefully his 

                                                             inconsistent play will help keep his price down a little.  But he

                                                             is still a top flight CB and will be paid accordingly.

 

Josh Gordy-CB-Restricted FA-             Sign Gordy to an offer sheet for a low tender, but hopefully        

                                                             we find a better 5th corner in preseason. 

 

Sergio Brown-S-Unrestricted FA-         Brown deserves to be resigned.  He has become a real bright 

                                                             spot on an otherwise mediocre at best special teams unit.

 

Adam Vinatieri-K-Unrestriced FA-         Adam stil has it, and I would expect him to have it for 2 more

                                                             years.  

 

Pat McAfee-P-Unrestricted FA-            McAfee has not been as good this year as he has been, but I 

                                                             would still like to see him stay a Colt.

 

(Singed Free Agents)

Jeremy Maclin-WR-Unrestricted FA-     Maclin is the player I would like to get for our WR corps.  If        

                                                             he's healthy and as long as it doesn't break the bank, I feel

                                                             he is the best player available to groom into Reggie's long 

                                                             term replacement.  This strategy is dependent on Rogers 

                                                             being the stud we hope he is.  Otherwise the draft will be  

                                                             better suited to find a new WR.  (We need a big WR, so if 

                                                             Rogers can fill that roll, I'm more comfortable with going after 

                                                             Maclin as a supplement to Rogers, Hilton, and Wayne.)

 

Alex Mack-C-Unrestricted FA-               Pro Bowl Center in his prime.  He will probably end up being

                                                             the highest paid center in the NFL wherever he lands, and

                                                             he'd be worth every penny.

 

Arthur Jones-DE-Unrestricted FA-        Pagano ties and scheme fit.  Won't be the most expensive

                                                             free agent, so it would be good to get him into a rotational

                                                             role with Redding, as Cory plays out the final year of his

                                                             contract.  Then Jones would be the full time starter in 2015.

 

Terrence Cody-NT-Unrestricted FA-    Another former Pagano player.  Also a former teammate of 

                                                             Josh Chapman at Alabama.  We would have a good rotation 

                                                             with these two guys, keeping them fresh all game long.

 

Donald Butler-ILB-Unrestricted FA-      Young and underrated linebacker.  Comes from a 3-4 in San

                                                             Diego and would be the perfect compliment to Freeman in the 

                                                             middle of the defense.

 

(Draft Picks)

Darqueze Dennard-CB-Mich.St. 2nd-   The closest I've seen to a shutdown corner in college football

                                                             this season.  He hasn't faced a top tier wideout all year, but  

                                                             he's still easily the best player on one of the best defenses in                      

                                                             the country.

 

Chris Borland-ILB-Wisconsin-4th rd-    One of the best defensive players in the entire Big Ten.  

                                                             What he lacks in athleticism he makes up for with elite

                                                             instincts.  Another player that probably won't put up great  

                                                             combine numbers, and will be a steal in the 4th round.

 

Ahmad Dixon-S-Baylor-5th round-        Best defensive player on a surprisingly good defense at  

                                                             Baylor.  Can play center fielder and can play in the box.

                                                             Pagano likes to have safeties that can play both, and Dixon is 

                                                             a hard hitting safety with range.

                                                             

C.J. Fiedorowicz-TE-Iowa-5th round-   C.J. is an outstanding TE.  Both as a point of the attack and

                                                             downfield blocker.  He would immediately help with Pep's

                                                             power formations, because he is also a receiving threat.

                                                             He's a huge target, and would be a great to have in the red          

                                                             zone.  He's way too talented to last to the fifth round, but he

                                                             he will post a poor 40 time at the Combine and fall off the

                                                             map for most teams. (Think Dwayne Allen) Plus, there is a ton    

                                                             of TE talent in front of him.  

 

 

Chris Watt-OG-Notre Dame-6th round-Another o-line project for Grigson.  Far from a top prospect,

                                                             but enough talent to develop into a quality depth player.  His

                                                             strength is pass protection, not run blocking.  He has good 

                                                             athleticism for a guard, and is a good fit on the left side.

                                                             

Ben Gardner-DE-Stanford-UDFA-       Gardner will need to pack on the pounds to be a fit at 3-4 DE  

                                                             in the NFL.  If he does, he could be a viable depth player.

 

Tyler Gaffney-RB-Stanford-UDFA-       Familiar with Pep and the power scheme, and played with  

                                                             Luck  in 2011.  Good downhill, no nonsense runner.  Perfect      

                                                             scheme fit, but without overwhelming talent, he should be               

                                                             there to pick up after the draft.

 

 

Everyone feel free to throw your own ideas at my mock and have some fun with it!

Very well done, I love reading these kind of fourms. keep em coming, stay Coltstrong!

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Colts don't have a 4th round pick

I like Maclin, but I'm not too keen on picking another player with a injury history...2 ACL tears

Did you read the part about trading picks?  And I would want Maclin to sign a low-risk contract that give us an out if he is injured again, like giving him roster bonuses instead a large signing bonus.

[BOTT]

Did you read the part about trading picks?

Oops, my bad. Although I think you should try to be more realistic

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Oops, my bad. Although I think you should try to be more realistic

About?

[BOTT]

About?

Trades. The odds of that happening are tiny.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Trades. The odds of that happening are tiny.

Trades like that happen every year...

The value of the of the of the 25th pick in the 3rd round is 145+ 7th round 4.6=151.6

The value of the 7th pick in the 4th round is 88+5th round 38.5+6th round 24.6=151.1

[BOTT]

Trades like that happen every year...

The value of the of the of the 25th pick in the 3rd round is 145+ 7th round 4.6=151.6

The value of the 7th pick in the 4th round is 88+5th round 38.5+6th round 24.6=151.1

Ok. Guys do this trade stuff every year and I'm still waiting for one of them to come true.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Ok. Guys do this trade stuff every year and I'm still waiting for one of them to come true.

What?  The Pats and the Vikings did it just last year.  So did the Dolphins and Raiders.  Even we traded picks last year, and the year before that. Have you never watched the draft? 

[Superman]

Here's my (ideal) 2014 Colts' roster.  

 

This is good stuff. Some thoughts:

 

I'm really concerned about Maclin. We talked about some contract possibilities with him, so there's a way to handle it. I'm just worried because he's had two bad knee injuries already. He'd be a good fit for a possession receiver. But if he isn't capable of playing at 100%, and Reggie doesn't come back at 100%, we're right back in the same boat we're in now. Unless Rogers takes off, and that's probably more of a question mark than Maclin and Reggie.

 

I just can't imagine the Browns letting Mack walk. Cornerstone, All Pro level linemen don't switch teams that often. If they don't tag him, I'd be right there with a contract offer, but I think you need a contingency, unless you're ready to hand it to Khaled Holmes. For what it's worth, I think he's very capable, if he's healthy.

 

I like Donald Butler. Not sure about Cody and Brown. First, I don't think the Ravens let both of them walk. And I don't think I'd commit more money to the defensive line just yet. I'd focus on drafting defensive linemen, with the money we have in RJF and Redding right now. I'm also counting on Hughes to show his stuff over this next month. 

 

What kind of contract are you thinking about for Vontae Davis?

 

I don't think I'd re-sign AV at this point, unless he's going to sign for minimum (which is still $940k, I think). Maybe I'd give him $1.5m. But at a certain point, we need a new kicker. Would be natural to let him walk if he wants more than that, and grab a rookie kicker in UDFA. We've had capable guys in camp the past few years. I would re-sign McAfee, but I'm curious what kind of numbers you have in mind.

 

I'll take your word on the draft picks; I haven't really started doing any research on prospects. I'm starting to think Grigson isn't a trade down kind of guy, but if there were a year it would make sense to do so, it would be this year when we don't have a first. This still ought to be a deep draft. 

 

I say all of this, not to be critical, but more because I'm interested in your sales pitch for some of these moves. I also want to know what kind of contracts you're talking about for Mack, Maclin, Jones, Butler, Cody, and Davis.

[Dustin]

No way Howell should be a starter. He's a smaller, slower Bethea who is worse in run defense. We need a FS who can cover.

He rest of your thing is pretty decent but I don't think Jones will sign on to be a backup when he can be a starter somewhere.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

No way Howell should be a starter. He's a smaller, slower Bethea who is worse in run defense. We need a FS who can cover.

He rest of your thing is pretty decent but I don't think Jones will sign on to be a backup when he can be a starter somewhere.

The safety position would definitely be the weak part of the team after all these moves, I just don't have anyone past the first round in the draft that would be good enough this year, and Byrd would be way too expensive.  I think Whitner would be too much also.  I though about Jones wanting to be the starter, and if that was the case I would just cut Redding. I love the guy but he's just not that great of a player

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

This is good stuff. Some thoughts:

 

I'm really concerned about Maclin. We talked about some contract possibilities with him, so there's a way to handle it. I'm just worried because he's had two bad knee injuries already. He'd be a good fit for a possession receiver. But if he isn't capable of playing at 100%, and Reggie doesn't come back at 100%, we're right back in the same boat we're in now. Unless Rogers takes off, and that's probably more of a question mark than Maclin and Reggie.

My strategy is based on the idea that Rogers becomes a true #1.  I know that may be unlikely, but that's the direction I went to start off with.  If Rogers is "the guy" then Maclin as a possession receiver becomes even more interesting.  It is a risk, but Maclin has so much talent that we could really get away with robbery if he does fully recover.  If Rogers doesn't pan out then my WR strategy goes in a whole different direction, and will I would probably use our 2nd rounder on the best WR we could get.

 

I just can't imagine the Browns letting Mack walk. Cornerstone, All Pro level linemen don't switch teams that often. If they don't tag him, I'd be right there with a contract offer, but I think you need a contingency, unless you're ready to hand it to Khaled Holmes. For what it's worth, I think he's very capable, if he's healthy.

I would be surprised if Mack was allowed to walk, but if he does we have to get him.  If not, I would hope Khaled has what it takes to be the starter.  We could also go after a guy like Brian de la Puente from New Orleans.  I'm not seeing any centers in the draft I'm particularly fond of.

 

I like Donald Butler. Not sure about Cody and Brown. First, I don't think the Ravens let both of them walk. And I don't think I'd commit more money to the defensive line just yet. I'd focus on drafting defensive linemen, with the money we have in RJF and Redding right now. I'm also counting on Hughes to show his stuff over this next month. 

If money gets tight we should release Redding, (if we got Jones)he's not really worth his contract at this point in his career.  If Hughes shows enough at the NT, then I would be comfortable without Cody, but I'm also not sold on Chapman yet.

 

What kind of contract are you thinking about for Vontae Davis?

I would project Vontae to get close to Brandon Flowers money.  5yrs/$50 million, with $22 million guaranteed.  Leave room to restructure his base salary in 2016 if we need room for the big Luck contract.  Also start the base salary out as low as possible this year to make room for all these signings.

 

 

I don't think I'd re-sign AV at this point, unless he's going to sign for minimum (which is still $940k, I think). Maybe I'd give him $1.5m. But at a certain point, we need a new kicker. Would be natural to let him walk if he wants more than that, and grab a rookie kicker in UDFA. We've had capable guys in camp the past few years. I would re-sign McAfee, but I'm curious what kind of numbers you have in mind.

For Vinatieri I'd offer him 2 years/$2.5 million take it or leave it.  And McAfee 3 years/$7million

 

I'll take your word on the draft picks; I haven't really started doing any research on prospects. I'm starting to think Grigson isn't a trade down kind of guy, but if there were a year it would make sense to do so, it would be this year when we don't have a first. This still ought to be a deep draft. 

I tried to picture Grigson actually trading up again, but I just can't see it with our lack of picks.  I think we might just pick where we pick, but I like the idea of trading 2 picks for 3.

 

I say all of this, not to be critical, but more because I'm interested in your sales pitch for some of these moves. I also want to know what kind of contracts you're talking about for Mack, Maclin, Jones, Butler, Cody, and Davis.

Mack would get close to Ryan Kalil Money.  Mack is a better player, but Kalil was 2 years younger when he got his deal.  I'd say 5 years/$42 million with $20 million guaranteed.  (Sales pitch:  You get to snap it to just ONE quarterback the rest of your career, and his name isn't Brandon Weeden)

Maclin we talked about,  I like the idea of 3 years/$24 million with an emphasis on roster bonuses to keep our risk down.  (Sales pitch: You get to learn from Reggie Wayne, on how to be the next Reggie Wayne.)

Arthur Jones I wouldn't expect to cost too much.  I'd guess 4 yrs/$20 million with around 10 million guaranteed.  (Sales pitch: Play for Pagano and with former teammate Cory Redding.)

Cody I honestly don't know.  Good nose tackles are is such short supply, but Cody isn't exactly Vince Wilfork either.  (Sales pitch: Pagano and former college teammate Josh Chapman.) 

Butler I would go 5 years/$38 million with 15 million guaranteed.  That would be slightly more than Danell Elerbe got from Miami.  (Sales pitch:  Please?   don't really have an angle for Butler)

 

I think we could fit this all under the cap.

We have around $45 million to work with (cutting Satele), so if we structure these it could work.

45-5 for Draft picks and reserve=40

40-8 for Davis=32

32-8 for Mack=24

24-6.5 for Maclin=18.5

18.5-4.5 for Jones=14

14-6 for Butler=8

8-3 for Vinatieri and McAfee=5

That would leave 5 million for Cody and the RFAs, ERFAs, and Sergio Brown.  In order to get them all in I would ask Redding to take a pay cut, and release him if he refused.  I love Cory, but he is not worth his cap hit next year.

 

 

[Gavin]

I'm big on Arthur Jones. Not so much Mount Cody; good run stopper, but TOTAL liability in pass rush. His 40 time is probably around 7.0 by now.

 

Now Im gonna have nightmares tonight...Thanks

[BOTT]

What?  The Pats and the Vikings did it just last year.  So did the Dolphins and Raiders.  Even we traded picks last year, and the year before that. Have you never watched the draft?

I'm aware trades happen on draft day. I thought it obvious I was talking about posters predicting Colts draft day trades.....they never come to fruition. I'm more interested in your opinion on what the Colts should do with the picks they have rather than some trade scenario that is 99% not going to happen.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I'm aware trades happen on draft day. I thought it obvious I was talking about posters predicting Colts draft day trades.....they never come to fruition. I'm more interested in your opinion on what the Colts should do with the picks they have rather than some trade scenario that is 99% not going to happen.

Predicting trades is no less a science then predicting what players we will draft.  Find me one person that thought we would draft who we drafted last year.  Plus, this is less what I "think" we will do vs. what I "want" the Colts to do.  That's why I put "my (ideal) roster" at the top of the thread.

[Superman]

My strategy is based on the idea that Rogers becomes a true #1. I know that may be unlikely, but that's the direction I went to start off with. If Rogers is "the guy" then Maclin as a possession receiver becomes even more interesting. It is a risk, but Maclin has so much talent that we could really get away with robbery if he does fully recover. If Rogers doesn't pan out then my WR strategy goes in a whole different direction, and will I would probably use our 2nd rounder on the best WR we could get.

I would be surprised if Mack was allowed to walk, but if he does we have to get him. If not, I would hope Khaled has what it takes to be the starter. We could also go after a guy like Brian de la Puente from New Orleans. I'm not seeing any centers in the draft I'm particularly fond of.

If money gets tight we should release Redding, (if we got Jones)he's not really worth his contract at this point in his career. If Hughes shows enough at the NT, then I would be comfortable without Cody, but I'm also not sold on Chapman yet.

I would project Vontae to get close to Brandon Flowers money. 5yrs/$50 million, with $22 million guaranteed. Leave room to restructure his base salary in 2016 if we need room for the big Luck contract. Also start the base salary out as low as possible this year to make room for all these signings.

For Vinatieri I'd offer him 2 years/$2.5 million take it or leave it. And McAfee 3 years/$7million

I tried to picture Grigson actually trading up again, but I just can't see it with our lack of picks. I think we might just pick where we pick, but I like the idea of trading 2 picks for 3.

Mack would get close to Ryan Kalil Money. Mack is a better player, but Kalil was 2 years younger when he got his deal. I'd say 5 years/$42 million with $20 million guaranteed. (Sales pitch: You get to snap it to just ONE quarterback the rest of your career, and his name isn't Brandon Weeden)

Maclin we talked about, I like the idea of 3 years/$24 million with an emphasis on roster bonuses to keep our risk down. (Sales pitch: You get to learn from Reggie Wayne, on how to be the next Reggie Wayne.)

Arthur Jones I wouldn't expect to cost too much. I'd guess 4 yrs/$20 million with around 10 million guaranteed. (Sales pitch: Play for Pagano and with former teammate Cory Redding.)

Cody I honestly don't know. Good nose tackles are is such short supply, but Cody isn't exactly Vince Wilfork either. (Sales pitch: Pagano and former college teammate Josh Chapman.)

Also there is the added pitch of playing with Luck, and playing for a team close to being a Superbowl contender.

 

Starting cap figure is about $85m (Spotrac says $80m, but they don't have Toler's Year 2 base salary. Let's assume it's $5m). Projected salary cap is $125m. You have $40m to spend in 2014.

 

So, in your perfect world, Rogers is the future #1 (and is playing like he's the future #1), we sign Maclin and keep Reggie. Based on what we talked about yesterday, Maclin's contract hits for $6m in 2014. (If Rogers isn't your #1, do you still sign Maclin?)

 

I really, really hope we don't give Vontae that kind of money. And if we do, I would hope we don't make it bonus heavy and backload salary. That would result in rapidly increasing cap hits as the years go on, after we re-sign Luck and others. I would hope could keep Davis at four years, $30m, signing bonus of $6m, Year 1 base salary of $3m, add some workout/roster bonuses in Year 2, along with a partially guaranteed base salary. His Year 1 cap hit would be $4.5m. I don't think he's worth $10m/year, not after the market reset from last offseason. By the way, Flowers' contract was redone with a year remaining, so his Year 1 cap hit was actually $8m, if you start from the year the new contract took effect. Take a look: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/brandon-flowers/ That can be adjusted, but you're going to pay for it later. Let's call it $4m in Year 1.

 

Kalil's was a six year deal. The average cap hit of his first two years was about $5m. Let's say we get Mack on a contract that looks something like that. (To be honest, I'd cringe at that kind of money for Mack, also.) This is getting pricey, both now and in the future.

 

Arthur Jones, let's say his deal gets structured with a $3m cap hit in Year 1.

 

Terrence Cody, let's give him Paul Soliai money, about $6m/year, for three years. And let's give him a $3.5m cap hit in Year 1.

 

Donald Butler, you didn't give me a projected contract for him. Ellerbe got $7m/year. I think Butler is better. But let's go with that, over four years, and let's give him a Year 1 cap hit of $4m.

 

Call Vinatieri's cap hit $1.25m, and McAfee's $1.75m.

 

Those moves alone add about $28.5m to the 2014 cap. You're re-signing a handful of other players to smaller deals, but figure on their cap hits being about $1m each, so that's another $5m. You'll only have to account for your second round pick to start with, and that's about $700k. So total, you've added about $34m to the cap. You still have about $4m to fill out your roster, and that's without cutting Satele or Redding. You've also paid out about $50m in bonuses, and have base salaries of about $80m. Would Irsay be willing to go cash over cap again?

 

I'd cut Satele, keep Redding. I think you're high on some guys (Davis, Mack), and low on others (McAfee), but it would probably wash out, so no need to change the overall numbers. I would take the $4m savings from releasing Satele. I would frontload some of these contracts with Year 1 and 2 salaries and bonus, so that I keep as flat a cap as possible. And in order to do that, I think you'd have to sacrifice someone. Either Cody or Jones.

 

You have a weakness at safety, you still have no depth at receiver, you're light at ILB, you're relying on Werner as a pass rusher. Of course, if you get rid of either Cody or Jones (or Redding, which I don't think is likely), you could address some of those, but you're still tight on the cap. You have about 30 roster spots open, but only your top 51 cap hits matter prior to Week 1.

 

I think your problem is going to really surface in 2015 and beyond. You still have a lot of average base salary to account for, plus prorated bonus.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Starting cap figure is about $85m (Spotrac says $80m, but they don't have Toler's Year 2 base salary. Let's assume it's $5m). Projected salary cap is $125m. You have $40m to spend in 2014.

 

So, in your perfect world, Rogers is the future #1 (and is playing like he's the future #1), we sign Maclin and keep Reggie. Based on what we talked about yesterday, Maclin's contract hits for $6m in 2014. (If Rogers isn't your #1, do you still sign Maclin?)

I'm still interested in Maclin if Rogers does not pan out, but not as much.  My reason for that is I want to direct all resources to get a true #1 receiver, before I worry about who is going to fill Reggie's role going forward.

 

I really, really hope we don't give Vontae that kind of money. And if we do, I would hope we don't make it bonus heavy and backload salary. That would result in rapidly increasing cap hits as the years go on, after we re-sign Luck and others. I would hope could keep Davis at four years, $30m, signing bonus of $6m, Year 1 base salary of $3m, add some workout/roster bonuses in Year 2, along with a partially guaranteed base salary. His Year 1 cap hit would be $4.5m. I don't think he's worth $10m/year, not after the market reset from last offseason. By the way, Flowers' contract was redone with a year remaining, so his Year 1 cap hit was actually $8m, if you start from the year the new contract took effect. Take a look: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/brandon-flowers/ That can be adjusted, but you're going to pay for it later. Let's call it $4m in Year 1.

Vontae will get good money.  His play this year may hurt him a little, but it's such a demand/supply with #1 Corners that he will have to be paid to stay.

 

Kalil's was a six year deal. The average cap hit of his first two years was about $5m. Let's say we get Mack on a contract that looks something like that. (To be honest, I'd cringe at that kind of money for Mack, also.) This is getting pricey, both now and in the future.

Mack does seem expensive, but he's in the discussion for best at his position in the entire league.  It would also fix our biggest weakness, and if we have to put a premium on protecting our entire franchise (Luck) then we have to do it.

 

Arthur Jones, let's say his deal gets structured with a $3m cap hit in Year 1.

 

Terrence Cody, let's give him Paul Soliai money, about $6m/year, for three years. And let's give him a $3.5m cap hit in Year 1.

 

Donald Butler, you didn't give me a projected contract for him. Ellerbe got $7m/year. I think Butler is better. But let's go with that, over four years, and let's give him a Year 1 cap hit of $4m.

I added Butler after I posted.  Gave him a little more than Ellerbe got.

Call Vinatieri's cap hit $1.25m, and McAfee's $1.75m.

 

Those moves alone add about $28.5m to the 2014 cap. You're re-signing a handful of other players to smaller deals, but figure on their cap hits being about $1m each, so that's another $5m. You'll only have to account for your second round pick to start with, and that's about $700k. So total, you've added about $34m to the cap. You still have about $4m to fill out your roster, and that's without cutting Satele or Redding. You've also paid out about $50m in bonuses, and have base salaries of about $80m. Would Irsay be willing to go cash over cap again?

As long as he gets to tweet about it.

 

I'd cut Satele, keep Redding. I think you're high on some guys (Davis, Mack), and low on others (McAfee), but it would probably wash out, so no need to change the overall numbers. I would take the $4m savings from releasing Satele. I would frontload some of these contracts with Year 1 and 2 salaries and bonus, so that I keep as flat a cap as possible. And in order to do that, I think you'd have to sacrifice someone. Either Cody or Jones.

Davis and Mack will have serious market value.  Davis because of his postiton, and Mack because in the top tier of his position.  As far as Vinatieri and McAfee, as much as I like them, I'm not paying a kicker and a punter any more than that.

 

You have a weakness at safety, you still have no depth at receiver, you're light at ILB, you're relying on Werner as a pass rusher. Of course, if you get rid of either Cody or Jones (or Redding, which I don't think is likely), you could address some of those, but you're still tight on the cap. You have about 30 roster spots open, but only your top 51 cap hits matter prior to Week 1.

Safety is a weakness, and would be addressed in the next offseason if Howell and Dixon don't emerge.  Again, if Rogers pans out, not sure why we would have a lack of depth if Reggie and Maclin were both healthy. (I know a lot of IFs)  I think we would be set at ILB with Freeman, Butler, McNary, and Borland.  And yes, I'm hoping Werner becomes the talent we need him to be.

 

I think your problem is going to really surface in 2015 and beyond. You still have a lot of average base salary to account for, plus prorated bonus.

If we avoid accumulating any significant dead money, and with Wayne, Redding, Satele coming off the books by then,  and then Mathis and Toler in 2016 I think it's possible.  But it doesn't leave us much room to work with and that could be dangerous if guys don't work out.

[Dustin]

Redding is playing fantastically this year, particularly against he run. Why cut him?

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Redding is playing fantastically this year, particularly against he run. Why cut him?

I would only cut him if his future replacement was on the roster, ready to start, and we needed the cap space.  Regardless of that, do you see Redding playing after next year is over?  He'll be 34 1/2 when his contract is up.

[Dustin]

I would only cut him if his future replacement was on the roster, ready to start, and we needed the cap space.  Regardless of that, do you see Redding playing after next year is over?  He'll be 34 1/2 when his contract is up.

 

No, I think he'll retire after his contract is up. But I don't think cap space should be spent on fixing things that aren't broken, particularly when we have so many holes. JMO. 

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

No, I think he'll retire after his contract is up. But I don't think cap space should be spent on fixing things that aren't broken, particularly when we have so many holes. JMO. 

I tend to agree, but I expect a decline from Redding next year, and if we have his replacement ready to go, he would have to take a pay cut if he was no longer starting, or get release.  Sorry if my ideas make it sound a little like the Patriot Way.  Keep in mind, that I'm saying we will have a better player on the roster then Redding next year.  If that's not the case then of course I wouldn't get rid of Redding.

[Colts_Fan12]

Just as long as we do wat we can to fix this o line and stop letting the franchise get hit so much ill be happy

[Superman]

I tend to agree, but I expect a decline from Redding next year, and if we have his replacement ready to go, he would have to take a pay cut if he was no longer starting, or get release.  Sorry if my ideas make it sound a little like the Patriot Way.  Keep in mind, that I'm saying we will have a better player on the roster then Redding next year.  If that's not the case then of course I wouldn't get rid of Redding.

 

It sounds like a luxury. I don't think you go out and sign a new player to replace a player that's playing fine. I don't mind the Patriot way, but that was more about letting your young drafted players take over for a vet that's declining (or maybe in advance of the decline). And they usually recouped a draft pick. In your scenario, I'd keep Redding and pass on Arthur Jones. The hope would be that Hughes can play that role in 2015, along with other young guys in a rotation.

[Superman]

I'm still interested in Maclin if Rogers does not pan out, but not as much.  My reason for that is I want to direct all resources to get a true #1 receiver, before I worry about who is going to fill Reggie's role going forward.

 

Vontae will get good money.  His play this year may hurt him a little, but it's such a demand/supply with #1 Corners that he will have to be paid to stay.

 

Mack does seem expensive, but he's in the discussion for best at his position in the entire league.  It would also fix our biggest weakness, and if we have to put a premium on protecting our entire franchise (Luck) then we have to do it.

I added Butler after I posted.  Gave him a little more than Ellerbe got.

As long as he gets to tweet about it.

 

Davis and Mack will have serious market value.  Davis because of his postiton, and Mack because in the top tier of his position.  As far as Vinatieri and McAfee, as much as I like them, I'm not paying a kicker and a punter any more than that.

 

Safety is a weakness, and would be addressed in the next offseason if Howell and Dixon don't emerge.  Again, if Rogers pans out, not sure why we would have a lack of depth if Reggie and Maclin were both healthy. (I know a lot of IFs)  I think we would be set at ILB with Freeman, Butler, McNary, and Borland.  And yes, I'm hoping Werner becomes the talent we need him to be.

 

If we avoid accumulating any significant dead money, and with Wayne, Redding, Satele coming off the books by then,  and then Mathis and Toler in 2016 I think it's possible.  But it doesn't leave us much room to work with and that could be dangerous if guys don't work out.

 

Fine, you talked me into Mack.

Here's what you do for Davis, Mack and Butler. You frontload the first two years with guaranteed salary and roster bonuses. You can later convert the roster bonuses to signing bonuses and spread the hits out if you want (Tampa Bay has been doing this the past couple years). 

 

So give Davis five years, $50m, $20m guaranteed: $4m signing bonus, Year 1 roster bonus of $6m, fully guaranteed base salary of $2m, Year 2 roster bonus of $2m, fully guaranteed base salary of $6m. Cap hit in both years is $8.8m. (I still think that's high; I think $8m/year is more like it, and that's being gracious. I don't see Davis as better than Talib, Grimes, Smith, etc., who all signed for $6m/year or less last year.)

Similar structure on Mack (call his Year 1 cap hit $8m) and Butler (call his Year 1 cap hit $6m).

I think you should scratch Jones; I don't think you reasonably have room for him. You keep Cody at $3.5m

Let's cross our fingers and hope that Rogers shows #1 potential, then you sign Maclin, Year 1 at $6m.

Vinatieri and McAfee at $3m, total.

EFRAs, RFAs, and Brown, $5m.

Cut Satele, net $4.2m.

You've added a net total of $36.1m to the cap, and have about $3.5m left over for draft picks and reserve. You've reduced your total cash outlay in 2014, and you have more balanced contract structures moving forward. You lost Jones, but you keep Redding.

Still questionable at safety. I know you have ILBs, but you're relying on a rookie and others for depth. Questionable at receiver because you're relying on an unknown as your potential #1, and two vets coming back from knee injury. Assume Werner develops, you've scratched your pass rusher itch.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

It sounds like a luxury. I don't think you go out and sign a new player to replace a player that's playing fine. I don't mind the Patriot way, but that was more about letting your young drafted players take over for a vet that's declining (or maybe in advance of the decline). And they usually recouped a draft pick. In your scenario, I'd keep Redding and pass on Arthur Jones. The hope would be that Hughes can play that role in 2015, along with other young guys in a rotation.

You make a good point.  The money we would save by not going after Jones could go to another WR or a safety.  Starting to think that our best bet may be to keep Bethea, if he comes cheap enough.

[MaoBerry]

I absolutely love the CHRIS BORLAND PICK! Both he and KENNY BELL (nebraska)  are the steals of this draft!

[Coltman51]

a lot of work and nicely done,  we need another QB though,  Hasselbeck has said he is retiring after this year.   Figure we keep the young kid Luck for awhile yet/