If Colts Get The #1 Pick In Draft..

[SanAntonioColt]

If you were the Colts GM what would you do if the colts had the #1 overall draft pick?

Would you stay there and Draft Luck or trade down for more picks?BUT Staying there and

I being an outsider can see the benefits doing both, trading down you get more HIGH picks (and prbl 2 #1 next year or even this year plus more) to improve any weaknesses the colts have expecting Manning be back next yr and doing this MAY give him a better rounded team and a chance win another SB.

BUT staying there and drafting Luck makes sense as you do two things:

1. Have a GOOD back-up behind Manning in case he cant go you remain competitive.

2. Manning can groom Luck for 3 yrs ala Favre to rogers.. except Manning would actually help the kid

So what would you do in this WORSE case scenerio.. remembering you are getting the franchise back next year.

It depends on Peyton's health. If he appears to have some years left, I would definitely trade down and accumulate two or three draft picks. If Peyton is not healthy, I would probably keep the pick depending on the evaluation of Luck. It's possible Luck may not be the optimal #1 pick. Most teams would have taken Reggie Bush over Mario Williams.

I don't think Option 2 is viable. Three years is too long to keep an overall #1 sitting on the bench. I would let a later QB pick be the guy to be mentored by the GOAT. You are correct that Peyton, unlike Favre, would actually work with his understudy.

Keep an eye on current Tennessee QB, Tyler Bray. As a Vol fan, I would love to see the best Vol QB since Peyton take over for the great one.

[oldunclemark]

It we draft a QB..that guys sits for 3 years..

What about Michael Floyd..-WR - Notre Dame...

we need a big playmaker

[bavanlan]

Sounds like a good plan to me, man. I especially like the part about trading Freeney. There are several other Colts players I wouldn't mind seeing traded away on draft day as well. I like the premise of getting a young QB via trade rather than the draft and then acquiring the extra draft picks. Mallet from New England and Flynn from Green Bay would be good candidates as well, but the picks we'd get in return wouldn't be high enough and neither of those teams would want Luck anyway with Brady and Rodgers being their QBs. Maybe we could work a trade with one of those teams for Freeney and get our future QB that way, in addition to a middle round pick. A trade like that would also free up cap space for us to sign a quality free agent. Then we'd still be able to trade the top pick for multiple high picks and/or proven vets. All that being said, if we do pick Luck, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be mad about it, but I think we could do better for ourselves by trading the pick away (assuming we get a great deal in return).

You want to trade Dwight Freeney for Ryan Mallett?

[bavanlan]

I take no issue with people discussing how good of a pro QB Andrew Luck would be.

The fact that people are comparing him to Peyton Manning, but THEN saying they still wouldn't draft him if he has to sit for 3 years is shocking.

Who here would pass on Peyton Manning in 1998 if he couldn't play until 2001 or 2002? Would you take Wadsworth? Woodson? Enis? Turley? We could use DE/CB/RB/OT help.

If you believe that Luck will be the next great QB in the NFL, you take him and make it work.

[jvan1973]

I take no issue with people discussing how good of a pro QB Andrew Luck would be.

The fact that people are comparing him to Peyton Manning, but THEN saying they still wouldn't draft him if he has to sit for 3 years is shocking.

Who here would pass on Peyton Manning in 1998 if he couldn't play until 2001 or 2002? Would you take Wadsworth? Woodson? Enis? Turley? We could use DE/CB/RB/OT help.

If you believe that Luck will be the next great QB in the NFL, you take him and make it work.

Agreed...

[Case]

It we draft a QB..that guys sits for 3 years..

What about Michael Floyd..-WR - Notre Dame...

we need a big playmaker

EXACTLY!!!! Get him in the first get a cb in 2nd and kellen Moore in 3rd

Let Moore learn from manning for a few years and we will be set

[Jason_]

It depends on Peyton's health. If he appears to have some years left, I would definitely trade down and accumulate two or three draft picks. If Peyton is not healthy, I would probably keep the pick depending on the evaluation of Luck. It's possible Luck may not be the optimal #1 pick. Most teams would have taken Reggie Bush over Mario Williams.

I don't think Option 2 is viable. Three years is too long to keep an overall #1 sitting on the bench. I would let a later QB pick be the guy to be mentored by the GOAT. You are correct that Peyton, unlike Favre, would actually work with his understudy.

Keep an eye on current Tennessee QB, Tyler Bray. As a Vol fan, I would love to see the best Vol QB since Peyton take over for the great one.

Hey I love the idea of Tyler Bray. He's 6'6" and 210 lbs (obviously needs to put on more bulk but he's only 19 I think) AND my favorite reason is that he won't even be eligible to declare this year so we'd have to wait till next year (If my understanding is correct).

As for Andrew Luck, one more reason why he's not necessarily the QB we need is (and this is assuming Peyton does come back) that the primary reason he's being ranked so high above the other QB's is because he's the only QB prospect that has first round talent AND currently plays in a pro-style offense (I hope I put enough emphasis on that lol).

Others QB's available:

Kirk Cousins, 6'3" 210 lbs, Michigan state: runs a pro-style offense but has some issues with mechanics and technique such as footwork and a tendency to throw off his back foot. Need to bulk up a little more

Landry Jones, 6'4" 220 lbs, Oklahoma: great mechanics, but the OU offense is more of a spread than pro style...or maybe combination of both. It is not however a pure pro-style like Stanfords.

Matt Barkley, 6'2" 220 lbs, USC: similar issues with technique and mechanics as Cousins. Also reported to hold the ball low when dropping back and scanning the field which is a minor concern.

Nick Foles, 6'5" 240 lbs, Arizona: runs a spread offense and some concerns with mechanics/footwork.

There are a couple of others that are rated towards the top of the draft but these I listed are the only ones that I've not only studied, but I've also watched each of them play. So far I've been most impressed with Foles. When I watched Luck, there were 2, maybe 3 passes he threw that had that 'wow' factor. when I watched Foles there were half a dozen at least. He has great size and strength for a QB, reminded me somewhat of Roethlesberger but foles is about 20 lbs lighter. He's still a handful to bring down and he's made some very Big Ben'esque plays where the defense simply couldn't get him down and he was able to get a throw off that not only avoided a sack, but was also right on the money and was completed.

You often hear people say that certain QB's, like a Nick Foles, who run the spread offense are simply a product of the system and that's why they appear to be better than they possibly are. I would counter-argue that the same is true of Luck. I honestly think he is overrated. He benefits from a very potent offensive line and a highly effective power running game. He also has several outstanding TE's in the mold of a Jason Whitten in that they are big, tall, strong and are just as good receiving as they are blocking. Many of Luck's throws were to wide open TE's because the defense completely sold out on the run.

Case in point, Foles and Luck faced off this past weekend in the Arizona vs. Stanford game. Luck's starting RB had 153 yards rushing for the game whereas Arizona as a team rushed for only 58 yards. By the end of the first half, Arizona had minus 6 yards on 10 carries though during that same stretch Foles completed 17/19 passes for 189 yards. For the season so far Foles is completing over 76% of his passes in their 1 dimensional offense.

The few times Arizona's defense was able to get pressure on Luck, he looked very average and had a tendency to throw off his back foot which resulted in underthrown passes. He was lucky there was absolutely no defense near the receiver he threw to (Luck ran play action and Arizona came on a heavy run blitz...whoever was supposed to be covering the TE totally bit on the PA fake). Had there been a defender in the area, instead of a big play the ball could well have been intercepted.

The bottom line is that if the only reason Luck is so highly considered over the others is because he's NFL ready then that says nothing about the level of talent. I'm not saying he's not one of the most talented guys coming out because he definitely is. However, that doesn't mean that he is more talented than the other top rated prospects...it simply means he plays in a system that has prepared him to be ready to start in the NFL from day 1. We don't need him to start from day 1 unless Manning is forced to retire.

All that considered, there is absolutely no reason to use a #1 pick on a guy who is ready to start from day 1 if we don't need him to start from day 1. If Manning is able to come back (heck even if he doesn't come back to play but has some sort of advisor type role) then he could easily help Foles, Cousins, Jones or Barkley overcome the rather minor issues with mechanics and form and become an elite QB like people are projecting Luck to be. The minor issues with mechanics, footwork etc are the reason teams prefer to "groom" these types of QB's instead of starting them from day 1. However there have been many QB's in this mold who have started from day 1 and been successful.

Once again, because I want to emphasize this as much as possible, Luck is NOT going to be the #1 pick because he is more talented than the other top prospect QB's. He will be the #1 pick because he currently runs an offense that has him prepared for an NFL pro style offense so the transition will be minimal. To spend the extra money we'd be spending on him as well as the #1 draft pick based on these reasons would simply be foolish. I am convinced that if we wind up with the #1 pick and Luck is drafted then that means Manning's career is likely over.

[Jason_]

I also read an excellent point somewhere last night and I wish I could remember where because whoever it was that made this point deserves a ton of credit for pointing out something that otherwise has gone unsaid....Peyton intentionally took less money on his new contract to give Polian and the FO a better chance to resign players who will become FA's at the end of this year as well as to be able to have the flexibility to bring in FA's all in an effort to build a better, more talented team. Wouldn't it be a slap in his face to take that money and spend it on the person who is only going to play once he no longer can?

[jackbutton96]

You want to trade Dwight Freeney for Ryan Mallett?

Yes, I would be very happy if we did just what I mentioned! Under the mentoring of Manning, Mallet could definitely be our franchise QB of the future. He's got the tools, and could very well turn out like Rodgers did. And in the scenario I presented, we'd also get a 3rd or 4th round pick, which we could use any number of ways to strengthen one of our areas of weakness. Freeney is due to make $14 million next season, so after we paid Mallet and the draft pick, we'd still have another $10 million or so we could put towards either resigning Mathis/Wayne, or bringing in a proven vet free agent(s). Freeney is a luxury player, dude. We don't even have our basic needs covered and we're spending $14 million on a pass rush specialist that is a liability against the run. It's kinda like some dude that lives in a roach infested, run down, ghetto apartment with no electricity and no water, but has a $250 pair of sneakers. Totally irresponsible and irrational. You can keep your facepalm bro, just open your eyes and look at the facts. I'm a fan of Freeney and I love what he's done for us, but this is a business, and I'm a Colts fan first and foremost, so I'm always gonna lean towards what's best for the team.

[Portage Coltfans]

Do you guys want to win superbowls while we still have Manning?

then the choice is clear. We have to draft Impact players NOW!!

Upgrade LB,DT,OL, the Entire secondary (- powers)

I guess we could draft Luck, and when the Texans are running for 200 yds a game, he can look pretty on the sideline as a cheerleader.

[Portage Coltfans]

EXACTLY!!!! Get him in the first get a cb in 2nd and kellen Moore in 3rd

Let Moore learn from manning for a few years and we will be set

way to long of a post, i skipped this

[Balzer40]

I take no issue with people discussing how good of a pro QB Andrew Luck would be.

The fact that people are comparing him to Peyton Manning, but THEN saying they still wouldn't draft him if he has to sit for 3 years is shocking.

Who here would pass on Peyton Manning in 1998 if he couldn't play until 2001 or 2002? Would you take Wadsworth? Woodson? Enis? Turley? We could use DE/CB/RB/OT help.

If you believe that Luck will be the next great QB in the NFL, you take him and make it work.

This is absolutely correct! How anybody could say they shouldn't draft Luck if they had the 1st pick simply because he may or may not have to sit the bench a few yrs. is ridiculous. You don't pass on 15 yrs. of future because he will have to wait his turn.

[coltsfanej]

I say to only take Luck if the FO feels that he will be the best QB coming out of college for the next three years. I do not only mean the best for the first year, but the best overall as a pro. How well a QB does in his first year means nothing to how he can develop. (Peytons rookie year was 3-13).. So if they feel that some of the other QB coming out this year or in the next two could be just as good or better once learning the pro system, then I say to trade out of the 1st pick and take Justin Blackmon or whoever they have ranked highest at this position.

With the new cap numbers for the 1st round picks, it makes the 1st overall pick a lot more valuable as a trading piece, especially with Luck being everyones target. We could possibley double up on almost every round for this year and next year. The Falcons gave theyre whole draft to get Julio high in the draft. I just think that we could fill so many holes by trading out of the number 1 pick.

But if Peyton isnt going to have the 3 or 4 years left, then I say take Luck if he is the best QB they see for this year or next. But in watching last weeks game, I saw a lot of what other people saw, which was a team focused on stopping the run and not the pass, and a lot of wideopen TEs and WR. If we do take him I hope he is the next Peyton and keeps us on top of our division for another decade.

[jackbutton96]

This is absolutely correct! How anybody could say they shouldn't draft Luck if they had the 1st pick simply because he may or may not have to sit the bench a few yrs. is ridiculous. You don't pass on 15 yrs. of future because he will have to wait his turn.

If we do draft Luck and Peyton comes back and plays at a high level, then what do we do 3 years from now if Manning still has a couple of seasons left in him and wants to continue playing? What if Peyton comes back and throws for 30-35 tds and 4000-4500 yards per season (like he always has) over the next 3 years and breaking all of Favre's records is within reach? What do we do then? I don't want to see Manning playing for another team, ever! And I sure as heck don't want to see him break those records with another team! Not to mention what Jason said in an earlier post about Manning taking a lesser contract amount so we'd have cap space to sign players to help us win more super bowls now. It'd be a total slap in his face to spend a considerable chunk of our cap on someone that's not going to contribute until he's (Manning) retired! The only way I'm on board with drafting Luck is as insurance for Manning concerning his neck injury. We can draft him, but as soon as Manning has consistently shown that he's back to his old self, then we immediately trade Luck and get some players in here that will help us win right now. If Manning doesn't look like he's gonna regain his old form, then we hold onto Luck. But if Peyton comes back this season and looks good, we should never draft Luck, unless it's a situation like when San Diego drafted Eli Manning then immediately traded him to the Giants.

[coltsfanej]

I take no issue with people discussing how good of a pro QB Andrew Luck would be.

The fact that people are comparing him to Peyton Manning, but THEN saying they still wouldn't draft him if he has to sit for 3 years is shocking.

Who here would pass on Peyton Manning in 1998 if he couldn't play until 2001 or 2002? Would you take Wadsworth? Woodson? Enis? Turley? We could use DE/CB/RB/OT help.

If you believe that Luck will be the next great QB in the NFL, you take him and make it work.

I agree totally, but to say that he is the next Peyton Manning is not realistic at this point. If they feel he is a franchise QB and can be the new face of this team for the next 15 years, then I say take him. But if there is any other QB they see the same or more potetial in, then I say trade down and collect some picks and take a different QB. I have only watched a few of his games, and i have not yet seen the 'Peyton' in him.

[bavanlan]

I agree totally, but to say that he is the next Peyton Manning is not realistic at this point.

Which is why I am not saying that.

[coltsfanej]

Which is why I am not saying that.

'

I was referring to 'Some people comparing him to Peyton' not that you said it.

[Jason_]

The fact that people are comparing him to Peyton Manning, but THEN saying they still wouldn't draft him if he has to sit for 3 years is shocking.

I agree totally, but to say that he is the next Peyton Manning is not realistic at this point.

IMO, the problem is this....a lot of people are misunderstanding the hype around Luck. People are saying he's the best pro-ready QB prospect since Peyton Manning and that very well may be true. I have yet though to hear a single person to say that Luck is a naturally more talented or gifted QB than the other top prospects. Several of the other top prospects have little issues with mechanics or footwork, etc whereas Luck is more polished in these areas. This means he's been better coached than some of the others. That has nothing, necessarily, to do with actual talent or ability.

Those who are buying into the hype really have to pay attention to what the analysts say because these guys usually choose their words very carefully and it can be easy read more into it than what they're actually saying.

But if Peyton isnt going to have the 3 or 4 years left' date=' then I say take Luck if he is the best QB they see for this year or next. But in watching last weeks game, I saw a lot of what other people saw, which was a team focused on stopping the run and not the pass, and a lot of wideopen TEs and WR[/quote']

This is a little off-topic but are you referring to the Stanford/Arizona game? If so I'm curious what you thought about Nick Foles, Arizona's QB.

[Guest deltacolt]

Sad thing is I don't think we are bad enough to get the number 1 pick, I would say we are looking at picks 3-5 when it comes draft time. What we have to hope for is a team like carloina having the number 1 pick and maybe we trade up for it.

Carolina already drafted Cam Newton.Wed have to be the worst in the league to get Luck.But if we are I think this would be a gift from heaven.Luck would also get the advantage of training under one of the best QBS of all time.A win-Win.Also if He gets injured again We got somebody ready to go.

[coltsfanej]

This is a little off-topic but are you referring to the Stanford/Arizona game? If so I'm curious what you thought about Nick Foles, Arizona's QB.

Yea, thats the game... I like how Foles doesnt turn over the ball and keeps a high completion %. I also really like his size. He had no help from the running game and poor protection. I dont know about him, but I like the limited amount that I have seen. He would be a good midround pick, unless he moves up draft boards. He and Kellen Moore are both good 3rd round picks at QB but I definatly like Foles size over moore's... I think he would be a good pick to see if he can develop into a franchise QB under Peyton without using a high pick. He may start moving up closer to the second or late first round if he plays well.

[MAC]

IMO, the problem is this....a lot of people are misunderstanding the hype around Luck. People are saying he's the best pro-ready QB prospect since Peyton Manning and that very well may be true. I have yet though to hear a single person to say that Luck is a naturally more talented or gifted QB than the other top prospects. Several of the other top prospects have little issues with mechanics or footwork, etc whereas Luck is more polished in these areas. This means he's been better coached than some of the others. That has nothing, necessarily, to do with actual talent or ability.

Those who are buying into the hype really have to pay attention to what the analysts say because these guys usually choose their words very carefully and it can be easy read more into it than what they're actually saying.

This is a little off-topic but are you referring to the Stanford/Arizona game? If so I'm curious what you thought about Nick Foles, Arizona's QB.

I actually watched part of a replay of Stanford/Arizona last night to see what all the "Luck hype" was about. I was astonished to hear the announcers referring to his statistics not being nearly as good as many other college QBs - but that people admire his leadership and the fact that he just wins. I also thought that he looked a bit odd throwing - I don't know if he has an unorthodox motion or if his upper body if unusual - but he almost looks "hunched" in whatever he is doing. And most of the highlight plays they show involve him throwing on the run. And the vast majority of the throws I saw were unobstructed short passes. In short, I'll take the experts at their word that he's the most pro ready prospect, but he looked nothing like an nfl pocket passer. (And he clearly has a tremendous running attack - which makes a QB's life so much easier.) Sounds more like the next Joe Montana then Peyton Manning. (Not that there is anything wrong with that).

I don't watch much college football and clearly know little about the guy, but I was hoping to be knocked off my feet.

----------------------

I see that you already commented on some of these issues in an earlier post.

Edited September 21, 2011 by MAC

[Jason_]

Yea, thats the game... I like how Foles doesnt turn over the ball and keeps a high completion %. I also really like his size. He had no help from the running game and poor protection. I dont know about him, but I like the limited amount that I have seen. He would be a good midround pick, unless he moves up draft boards. He and Kellen Moore are both good 3rd round picks at QB but I definatly like Foles size over moore's... I think he would be a good pick to see if he can develop into a franchise QB under Peyton without using a high pick. He may start moving up closer to the second or late first round if he plays well.

Agreed...in the first half the Arizona running game had 10 attempts for -6 yards. Foles, however was 17 of 19 for 189 yards and a TD or something along those lines. He gets the job done with average or less pass protection and no running game whatsoever. I also liked his size and strength...reminded me somewhat of Big Ben but I think Foles is a better pure passer.

I also thought that he looked a bit odd throwing - I don't know if he has an unorthodox motion or if his upper body if unusual - but he almost looks "hunched" in whatever he is doing.

I know exactly what you mean. I kept thinking he looked like Drew Brees...the shorter QB trying to push the ball over the OL/DL. At 6'4" though I couldn't understand why he looked that way.

And most of the highlight plays they show involve him throwing on the run. And the vast majority of the throws I saw were unobstructed short passes. In short, I'll take the experts at their word that he's the most pro ready prospect, but he looked nothing like an nfl pocket passer. (And he clearly has a tremendous running attack - which makes a QB's life so much easier.) Sounds more like the next Joe Montana then Peyton Manning. (Not that there is anything wrong with that).

I don't watch much college football and clearly know little about the guy, but I was hoping to be knocked off my feet.

----------------------

I see that you already commented on some of these issues in an earlier post.

Luck just doesn't seem like the right fit for our team. He relies on the heavy rushing attack and powerful OL. While our OL is getting better we are never going to be a power rushing team. At best they're trying to get to a more balanced attack but passing will always be a big part of our offense. Also did you notice how many of their plays they lined up with 3 TE's and 2 backs? Yeah that's NEVER going to happen here. lol

Especially for our offense, I think a guy like Foles or Landry Jones is a better fit. Foles in particular because he proves game in and game out that he can get still move the ball, completing a large number of his passes without turning the ball over. How good could he be with a little better coaching, a better OL and at least somewhat of a running game? You can't ask those questions about Luck because he already has them.

In short, Luck is the safe pick for a team who needs a QB right away. He has very little risk but I also think his ceiling is much lower than some of the other QB's like a Foles or Kellen Moore (with Moore I'm going exclusively on draft reports and things like that...haven't had a chance to see him play yet).

[MAC]

Luck just doesn't seem like the right fit for our team. He relies on the heavy rushing attack and powerful OL. While our OL is getting better we are never going to be a power rushing team. At best they're trying to get to a more balanced attack but passing will always be a big part of our offense. Also did you notice how many of their plays they lined up with 3 TE's and 2 backs? Yeah that's NEVER going to happen here. lol

Especially for our offense, I think a guy like Foles or Landry Jones is a better fit. Foles in particular because he proves game in and game out that he can get still move the ball, completing a large number of his passes without turning the ball over. How good could he be with a little better coaching, a better OL and at least somewhat of a running game? You can't ask those questions about Luck because he already has them.

In short, Luck is the safe pick for a team who needs a QB right away. He has very little risk but I also think his ceiling is much lower than some of the other QB's like a Foles or Kellen Moore (with Moore I'm going exclusively on draft reports and things like that...haven't had a chance to see him play yet).

All the more reason to hope that the Colts don't finish with the worst record. I don't feel like listening to the drama when 95% of the Colts fan base expects them to pick Luck, and then they don't.

[Jason_]

All the more reason to hope that the Colts don't finish with the worst record. I don't feel like listening to the drama when 95% of the Colts fan base expects them to pick Luck, and then they don't.

right? RIGHT???? yeah that's not gonna be fun....don't get too comfy though cause there'll still be that group that says we should have traded up for him. won't be quite as big a group but still gonna be a pain

lol

[18Manning]

I could look this up, but if someone can give me a straight, simple answer, I would appreciate it. Did the new CBA restrict the amount of money that could be paid to a draftee? Even if we have the option to choose Luck in the draft, won't he demand a big pay day?

[Jason_]

I could look this up, but if someone can give me a straight, simple answer, I would appreciate it. Did the new CBA restrict the amount of money that could be paid to a draftee? Even if we have the option to choose Luck in the draft, won't he demand a big pay day?

Yes...I have no links off hand to provide but the new CBA did put restrictions on rookie salaries. I believe someone said Cam Newton's deal was for 21 mil over 4 years...so 5 mill per year which is likely around the same ball park as what Luck would get.

[pacolts56]

right? RIGHT???? yeah that's not gonna be fun....don't get too comfy though cause there'll still be that group that says we should have traded up for him. won't be quite as big a group but still gonna be a pain

lol

And of course, you won't blow a gasket if the Colts DO draft Luck. Right??

[Jason_]

And of course, you won't blow a gasket if the Colts DO draft Luck. Right??

No, I wouldn't blow a gasket but I would be very disappointed and consider it a mistake.

[pacolts56]

No, I wouldn't blow a gasket but I would be very disappointed and consider it a mistake.

If your preference is a trade-down and stockpiling picks, its fine to prefer that strategy.

If its based on the possibility that Luck winds up a bust...well, I'm afraid thats possible with whoever we draft, including the guys we trade-down for. Late 1st rounders such as Gonzo, Hughes and Brown are evidence of that.

But if we DO wind up picking #1 overall with teams behind us having young QBs....and hence, we have no takers for a trade-down deal, then who else would you like us to take?

This isn't a trick question either....I'm just not hearing anyone else being slotted in at the #1 overall pick.

I'm guessing that most of us who favor drafting Andrew Luck do so with a much more cautionary outlook as far as Peyton's long term prospects. Let's face it...playing thru the entire contract he just signed would have been an admirable feat BEFORE his neck issue worsened, considering he's already 35 years old.

I wish I could flippantly say he'll play another 4 years at a high level and would render Andrew Luck a benchwarmer...but I just don't think that's a probable outcome.

Just my opinion.

[Jason_]

If your preference is a trade-down and stockpiling picks, its fine to prefer that strategy.

If its based on the possibility that Luck winds up a bust...well, I'm afraid thats possible with whoever we draft, including the guys we trade-down for. Late 1st rounders such as Gonzo, Hughes and Brown are evidence of that.

But if we DO wind up picking #1 overall with teams behind us having young QBs....and hence, we have no takers for a trade-down deal, then who else would you like us to take?

This isn't a trick question either....I'm just not hearing anyone else being slotted in at the #1 overall pick.

I'm guessing that most of us who favor drafting Andrew Luck do so with a much more cautionary outlook as far as Peyton's long term prospects. Let's face it...playing thru the entire contract he just signed would have been an admirable feat BEFORE his neck issue worsened, considering he's already 35 years old.

I wish I could flippantly say he'll play another 4 years at a high level and would render Andrew Luck a benchwarmer...but I just don't think that's a probable outcome.

Just my opinion.

Yes the trade down strategy is my preference. I can't say it's the right thing to do no more than I could say taking Luck would be the right thing to do. There are valid arguments for either strategy so it all comes down preference. And no, I'm not in any way suggesting Luck will be a bust. I think there are several QB's in the coming draft who will wind up being starters in the NFL and good ones at that. My point is simply that Luck is not the only one and he's not necessarily the best one. In fact I have yet to hear anyone say he is simply the unquestionably smarter or more talented QB compared to the others. The point that is always stressed is that he is NFL ready right now whereas the others may not be. I don't think the Colts need to put as high a price on immediate NFL readiness since we're going right now with the impression that Manning will be able to return at some point. However, even if Manning can't return, I still don't think Luck would fit as well in our system as either Landry Jones or Nick Foles and we could trade down, acquire an extra pick or two and still grab one of those guys.

Regardless of who's drafting behind us, I think there are only a few teams who would be in that position that wouldn't still go for Luck. Caroline is one of them...I don't think they'd have any interest in Luck. Teams, however like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Fransisco, and Seattle are just the ones that come immediately to mind that would be interested in moving up for Luck. Some will argue that Cincy and Cleveland are set at QB but I disagree. I'm sure they're fine with Dalton and McCoy if they don't have another option but I don't think they're so sold on their new guys that they wouldn't at least consider making the move for Luck. Even that aside though, I'm sure there are teams who are really committed to another player that they'd consider moving up for. If we had the #1 pick I don't think there's any way we couldn't deal down with someone.

However, since you asked I do think there are a couple of other players who would be well worth the #1 pick over Luck. Each year there is generally one absolute beast at positions like LB, DE, DT, CB and WR. Usually, at least a couple of these have a pretty significant drop off in talent once the #1 and/or #2 prospect are off the board. I think Manti Te'o MLB Notre Dame, Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama, or Alshon Jeffrey WR would definitely be worthy of a #1 pick for us. An argument could also be made for Quinton Coples DE but maybe not necessarily for us...unless Polian decides to let Mathis walk. I don't think there's a DT who is such a beast that he's worth the #1 pick for us so that's why I didn't list one.

[pacolts56]

Yes the trade down strategy is my preference. I can't say it's the right thing to do no more than I could say taking Luck would be the right thing to do. There are valid arguments for either strategy so it all comes down preference. And no, I'm not in any way suggesting Luck will be a bust. I think there are several QB's in the coming draft who will wind up being starters in the NFL and good ones at that. My point is simply that Luck is not the only one and he's not necessarily the best one. In fact I have yet to hear anyone say he is simply the unquestionably smarter or more talented QB compared to the others. The point that is always stressed is that he is NFL ready right now whereas the others may not be. I don't think the Colts need to put as high a price on immediate NFL readiness since we're going right now with the impression that Manning will be able to return at some point. However, even if Manning can't return, I still don't think Luck would fit as well in our system as either Landry Jones or Nick Foles and we could trade down, acquire an extra pick or two and still grab one of those guys.

Regardless of who's drafting behind us, I think there are only a few teams who would be in that position that wouldn't still go for Luck. Caroline is one of them...I don't think they'd have any interest in Luck. Teams, however like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Fransisco, and Seattle are just the ones that come immediately to mind that would be interested in moving up for Luck. Some will argue that Cincy and Cleveland are set at QB but I disagree. I'm sure they're fine with Dalton and McCoy if they don't have another option but I don't think they're so sold on their new guys that they wouldn't at least consider making the move for Luck. Even that aside though, I'm sure there are teams who are really committed to another player that they'd consider moving up for. If we had the #1 pick I don't think there's any way we couldn't deal down with someone.

However, since you asked I do think there are a couple of other players who would be well worth the #1 pick over Luck. Each year there is generally one absolute beast at positions like LB, DE, DT, CB and WR. Usually, at least a couple of these have a pretty significant drop off in talent once the #1 and/or #2 prospect are off the board. I think Manti Te'o MLB Notre Dame, Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama, or Alshon Jeffrey WR would definitely be worthy of a #1 pick for us. An argument could also be made for Quinton Coples DE but maybe not necessarily for us...unless Polian decides to let Mathis walk. I don't think there's a DT who is such a beast that he's worth the #1 pick for us so that's why I didn't list one.

Well....we'll see how it all plays out.

There is one thing about this discussion we need to be mindful of regardless of draft strategies...Peyton Manning IS the Colts system, and no one else fits it, which we're seeing that now. So I'm not going to hold out unrealistic expectations that Luck or Foles or Tannyhill or Moore can in any way come close to duplicating Manning's operation of an offense.

But the QB position has become an absolute key with the way the NFL is these days, and along with a more balanced attack we're likely to see out of our offense once Manning passes from the scene....Andrew Luck's mobility and complete skill set looks and sounds like he's as good a bet as it gets with a QB prospect.

Whatever happens, I just hope the Polian's are on their game if we do wind up with the #1...because if we whiff on that one, we'll probably be in the toilet for another couple years.

[Jason_]

Well....we'll see how it all plays out.

There is one thing about this discussion we need to be mindful of regardless of draft strategies...Peyton Manning IS the Colts system, and no one else fits it, which we're seeing that now. So I'm not going to hold out unrealistic expectations that Luck or Foles or Tannyhill or Moore can in any way come close to duplicating Manning's operation of an offense.

But the QB position has become an absolute key with the way the NFL is these days, and along with a more balanced attack we're likely to see out of our offense once Manning passes from the scene....Andrew Luck's mobility and complete skill set looks and sounds like he's as good a bet as it gets with a QB prospect.

Whatever happens, I just hope the Polian's are on their game if we do wind up with the #1...because if we whiff on that one, we'll probably be in the toilet for another couple years.

I agree 150%. The most recent QB in history I can think of who had as much control over the offense was Jim Kelly in Buffalo and that was in the early to mid 90's. The offensive coaches are really going to have to step up to the challenge.

[Jason_]

It depends on Peyton's health. If he appears to have some years left, I would definitely trade down and accumulate two or three draft picks. If Peyton is not healthy, I would probably keep the pick depending on the evaluation of Luck. It's possible Luck may not be the optimal #1 pick. Most teams would have taken Reggie Bush over Mario Williams.

I don't think Option 2 is viable. Three years is too long to keep an overall #1 sitting on the bench. I would let a later QB pick be the guy to be mentored by the GOAT. You are correct that Peyton, unlike Favre, would actually work with his understudy.

Keep an eye on current Tennessee QB, Tyler Bray. As a Vol fan, I would love to see the best Vol QB since Peyton take over for the great one.

I'm about through watching a replay of the Tennessee/Florida game....I've gotta tell ya, I don't think I've seen a quarterback throw more almost interceptions in my life. lol He does have idea size and looks to have a great arm, just needs to reel in the confidence he has in his arm just a little bit. Obviously he's still young so I'm sure he'll improve with time and coaching.

[CMD918]

I like Luck but me being from Oklahoma im a HUGE OU fan and would love for the Colts to take Landry Jones if he comes out this yr. considering hes a Redshirt Junior. I think Landry a good QB and would do GREAT mentored by Peyton for a few yrs. I see us probally picking about 3-6 we're looking bad but im not convinced #1 pick in the draft bad but Im still Hoping Collins and the rest of the team picks it up and we get in the Playoffs

[GoColts8818]

Beyond Luck does anyone even know who the top picks are supposed to be in the draft? Say there is a big DT or corner back that people have going behind Luck. There is a real chance the Colts could take one of those two guys at number one if they feel they serv a bigger need. Also I know I made the tread about Luck there is a chance he could go back to school. I know most feel like he wont but at this time last year most felt he wouldn't either. He might look at the Colts and go you know I don't want to sit behind Peyton Manning for four years I am going back. It's too early to tell. Also while I don't think the Colts are very good without Manning I don't think they are the worst team in the league. So I don't think we are going to get the first pick in the draft but I do think we are going to have a very high pick that we are going to turn into a player to address another area that will help us win while Peyton is here rather that is a DT, CB, or WR remains to be seen but I think it will most likely be one of those three poistions.

We are also just assuming Peyton doesn't come back and play the last six weeks or so. The fact that he is starting very light workouts at the Colts complex seems to be a sign that he is still trying to come back this season and even if we are out of the playoff race if Peyton can play he's going to play regardless of how the fans feel about it. That's just the kind of person Manning is. I would welcome it because just because he misses a year of football doesn't mean we get to tack another year on to this end of career and frankly I just enjoy seeing him play so if he can great. It will also answer the question of can he still go or not and tell us what we need to do in regards to our buy out option and do we really need to target a QB in the draft or not.

[KyFan18]

The best suggestion I have seen, assuming that we pick in the top 5, is to draft Matt Kalil, the OT out of USC. This would allow us to move Costanzo to RT and play Kalil at LT, shoring up the OL a lot. I have a lot of confidence that Manning will be back next season at a high level. But if he isn't, and we draft Luck and put him behind the current OL, we have killed his career. He will be Tim Couch or David Carr. You cannot stand a rookie QB up behind a poor OL and expect him to succeed. What I'm saying is, even if we have to look for a new franchise QB, we have got to have a solid offensive line in front of him to be successful, so that should be our #1 priority.

[GoColts8818]

The best suggestion I have seen, assuming that we pick in the top 5, is to draft Matt Kalil, the OT out of USC. This would allow us to move Costanzo to RT and play Kalil at LT, shoring up the OL a lot. I have a lot of confidence that Manning will be back next season at a high level. But if he isn't, and we draft Luck and put him behind the current OL, we have killed his career. He will be Tim Couch or David Carr. You cannot stand a rookie QB up behind a poor OL and expect him to succeed. What I'm saying is, even if we have to look for a new franchise QB, we have got to have a solid offensive line in front of him to be successful, so that should be our #1 priority.

We aren't going to draft another tackle. We have Costanzo who is doing just fine at left tackle. We also have our second round pick in Ijalana who is developing to be the right tackle. We need another lineman but we need a center or guard not a tackle. Also most teams don't like having a rookie protecting the blindside of their QB so the odds are on the very rare chance we took a tackle the rookie would play right tackle while Costanzo plays left a poistion he has already spent a year playing in the NFL and his natural poistion from college.

[Jason_]

Beyond Luck does anyone even know who the top picks are supposed to be in the draft? Say there is a big DT or corner back that people have going behind Luck. There is a real chance the Colts could take one of those two guys at number one if they feel they serv a bigger need.

Personally, as long as we're picking in the top 5, maybe even 10 I'd rather see us trade down. There are enough talented players at positions that we need that we can still get great value a little later. I'm hoping that we pick before cleveland. Since they have 2 picks I think we could get both of them if we pick far enough ahead of them. I could see them making a move for one of the top WRs.

To answer your question, there are definitely a couple of WRs and CBs that would be worth a #1 pick. My preferences would be towards Dre Kirkpatrick, CB from Alabama. He's 6'3" and a little bit under 200 lbs. If we go WR with #1 then I'd prefer Alshon Jeffrey from South Carolina. He's very much in the same mold as a Calvin Johnson. A second option would be Michael Floyd of Notre Dame. He's 6'3" and reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall but he has had at least 1 or 2 run-ins with the law. However announcers have said numerous times that the coaches at first suspended him, then had a meeting with him and discussed his return. They told him he needed to make some changes and clean up his act. They say he's made some changes with the people he hangs out with to try to get rid of the people who were bad influences for him. As for Jeffrey, he's apparently very highly regarded and respected for his attitude. Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State is the other top rated WR but personally I don't see what's so special. One draft site compared him to Garcon, in that he's very quick and has a lot of talent but is inconsistent. Only way I'd personally want to consider Blackmon is if both Floyd and Jeffrey are off the board. However there are going to be a lot of good WRs so if Jeffrey and Floyd are out then I'd wait a little later to look for a WR.

I know we disagree about our LB core but if we were to consider it, Manti Te'o MLB from Notre Dame would be worth the pick as well imo. He's as close to a clone of Urlacher as you're going to get. A lot of people rave about Vontaze Burfict too and is going to be a monster as well. However he's more of a Ray Lewis type. I think that based on the way they play that Te'o is a better fit for our defense.

If they wanted to go DT at #1 then Josh Chapman would probably be the best choice. However I don't think he's worth a #1 pick. We should be able to get a very good DT/NT in the 3rd or 4th round. Guys that should be available around the 2nd-4th rounds are:

Kendall Reyes, UConn 6'4" 300 lbs

Kawann Short, Purdue, 6'3" 310 lbs

Josh Chapman, Alabama, 6'1" 310 lbs

Christian Tupou, USC, 6'2" 300 lbs

Jaye Howard, Florida, 6'3" 303 lbs

Alameda Ta'amu of Washington is another name you'll hear for DT but I don't think he's the type we need. IMO it's a NT we need to bring in, or at least someone that can play both NT and UT and the guys above can do both. Ta'amu though, while 337 lbs, just doesn't look like he can play like a true NT. I think his best chance for success is to lose weight and try to get faster and play UT.

[crunk-juice]

We also have our second round pick in Ijalana who is developing to be the right tackle. We need another lineman but we need a center or guard not a tackle.

you mean the guy who cant start above Jeff <mod edit>?

[FairleySuhper]

Man, talk about hitting the panic button. The Colts won't get Luck. And even if they did, is he the next Peyton Manning? Nope. Why? Because no college QB is the next Peytong Manning. He's a one-of-a-kind player. Case closed. Colts fans have been spoiled by Manning's greatness, but all things go in cycles. If Manning is not able to make it back, expect the Colts to not be as good. Pretty simple really. Doesn't matter what QB they get in here after Manning; he won't be as good as Manning.