ESPN Insider story about best team in the AFC

[chad72]

ESPN Insider article by Vince Verhei (pasted below):

If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.

The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team.

The Broncos are only 3-3, but that mediocre record is not an accurate reflection of this team's performance this year. Their three losses have come against three division leaders (Houston, Atlanta and New England) with a combined record of 16-4. And it's not as if the teams Denver has beaten are pushovers, either. Pittsburgh, San Diego and Oakland have a combined record of 8-10. All in all, Denver's opponents so far this season have gone 24-14. In that light, a 3-3 record is quite an achievement.

Denver has had the misfortune to play so many good teams so early, but its luck concerning bouncing balls has been even worse. Our research has shown that avoiding and forcing fumbles are definite skills, but actually falling on those balls is mostly a matter of luck. Denver's opponents have fumbled 10 times, but lost only four balls. Even more amazing, the Broncos have fumbled nine times, and their opponents have recovered all of them. All together, the Broncos have recovered only four of 19 total fumbles this season. That kind of bad luck is bound to turn around soon.

The good news for Denver is that their schedule is much easier in the future. The 10 teams left on their slate are a collective 21-42, and only one of them (Baltimore) currently has a winning record. Nothing is certain in the NFL, but it's hard to see Denver missing out on a playoff berth.

What makes Denver such a quality team? Not surprisingly, it all starts with Peyton Manning. The veteran quarterback ranks fourth in DYAR and first in DVOA among quarterbacks this season (further information on FO's statistics available here), and also leads the league in ESPN's Total QBR. Manning is doing what all great quarterbacks are supposed to do: make his teammates better. Last year, no Denver wideout made the top 50 rankings at FO. This year, the team has three receivers in the top 30.

It's not terribly surprising to see a Peyton Manning-led offense playing well. It's a little more shocking to see how well the Denver defense is playing, especially compared to its conventional statistics. The Broncos rank 11th in yards per game, 10th against the pass, 18th against the rush and 17th in scoring. However, they rank sixth in DVOA. The biggest reason for that difference once again comes down to scheduling. Denver has played some of the league's best offenses in New England, Houston, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. That's going to throw the Broncos' conventional numbers out of whack, but DVOA adjusts for quality of competition and bumps Denver up several slots.

The Denver defense ranks highly in DVOA not so much because they do any one thing at an elite level, but because they have no real weaknesses for opponents to exploit. The unit ranks ninth in rushing DVOA and 10th against the pass. A quick look at our front seven tables shows that they don't get a lot of stuffs, and they do a good job preventing long runs, but they're not terribly far from average in either category. They are sixth in sack rate, but they're not particularly strong or weak in coverage against any category of receiver (except in covering running backs, where they rank fourth). The one thing Denver does do better than most teams is prevent the long ball. They've given up only 16 receptions for 20 yards or more this year, tied for fifth-best in the NFL.

The stars of this Denver defense are somewhat unknown. Safety Mike Adams leads the team in plays (the sum of tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and fumbles forced and recovered), but he's not in the league's top 40 in that category. Wesley Woodyard has been surprisingly effective replacing the suspended D.J. Williams as Denver's top linebacker. He's in the league's top 10 with 23 run stops (tackles on run plays that prevent meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs), nearly matching the career-high 25 he had last season.

The top playmaker, though, has unquestionably been Von Miller. As a rookie in 2011, Miller collected 11.5 sacks, but he was one-dimensional, with only eight defeats (tackles that cause a loss of yardage, turnover or third- or fourth-down stop) against the run. This year, he's even more effective against the pass, with six sacks in six games. Better yet, he has blossomed as an impact run defender. He leads the league with 10 run defeats this year, besting his rookie total with 10 games to go. Only the incomparable J.J. Watt has more total defeats (run and pass) than Miller in 2012. In any other season Miller would be a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt is virtually a lock to take that hardware home. Could Watt and the Texans defeat Miller's Broncos in a playoff game, though? That's no lock at all.

[chad72]

To me, replacing Joe Mays with Wesley Woodyard in the Chargers game (yeah, the guy who gave up long runs in critical situations in the middle or the guy who stinks in coverage giving up a 3rd & 14 to Danny Woodhead ) might prove to be the turning point.

However, 3rd down D and turnovers as the year goes on will tell where the Broncos sit by the end of the year.

[oldunclemark]

Whenn I saw the headline on the post..I thought this was story about the Patriots

[BrentMc11]

1. Texans unless major players go down.

2. Patriots......I am never counting BB out.... never underestimate the holes in the hoodie.....

3. Broncos.....Right there with New England...never count PM out.

Broncs may be the sleeper due to the incredibly tough schedule....week in and week out battles. You just never know....a team in the NFC got on a hot streak after 7-7 and took the Lombardi last year.....Mayt the best team win....and if it is someone other than these 3....more power to them!

[BayAreaBronco]

Thanks, Chad. Music to my ears.

I love that Von is getting the props he deserves. He's been amazing.

When DJ Williams returns, I'm curious how we will juggle the LB duties. Wesley Woodyard indeed has played well in his absence, but who plays in the middle? DJ hasn't played the spot for so many years. Keith Brookings is smart, but he is old. We shall see how JDR does with the pieces we got.

I'm also hoping that we will be out of bad karma of turnovers and stop being so behind in the first half in the near future, so we will see more running game. It will make Peyton's job a little easier.

[-JJ-]

ESPN Insider article by Vince Verhei (pasted below):

If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.

The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team.

True..overall efficiency Denver is ranked 5th over Houston 7th.

However Houston still has the edge on going to the SB...in the AFC 1st,followed by NE 2nd,Denver 3rd.

Oddly enough they have Miami at 5th. wow what are they doing. Looks like a WC shot because they have NE winnng the division at 10-6 and Miami with 8.7 wins. Gonna be a lot of 8-8's this season.

[chad72]

True..overall efficiency Denver is ranked 5th over Houston 7th.

However Houston still has the edge on going to the SB...in the AFC 1st,followed by NE 2nd,Denver 3rd.

Oddly enough they have Miami at 5th. wow what are they doing. Looks like a WC shot because they have NE winnng the division at 10-6 and Miami with 8.7 wins. Gonna be a lot of 8-8's this season.

One thing I did not agree with is that the Broncos have magically overcome their weakness vs TEs. We will wait and see if the shift to Wesley Woodyard at MLB with Danny Trevathan coming in as nickel backer in the SD game helps them over time.

Their safety and LB coverage is average at best, that is one weakness the Broncos are going to have to work around this entire season, I dont see it going from bad to good. At best, it can go from bad to average consistently and maybe with good pass rush, they squeeze it to above average.

Still, Brady will eat them alive with Gronk and Hernandez healthy, just my opinion.

[Vance]

LOLWHAT

mod warning: no large font caps!

[Vance]

And it's not as if the teams Denver has beaten are pushovers, either. Pittsburgh, San Diego and Oakland have a combined record of 8-10.

This is the most hilarious part. Man, look at those powerhouses! 8-10!! How did the Broncs manage to win against such stalwarts?!

And really, you're gonna cite the fact that they have a cake schedule the rest of the way as a deciding factor that they're the AFC's best team? Puhleeeeze.

This is awful.

[chad72]

This is the most hilarious part. Man, look at those powerhouses! 8-10!! How did the Broncs manage to win against such stalwarts?!

And really, you're gonna cite the fact that they have a cake schedule the rest of the way as a deciding factor that they're the AFC's best team? Puhleeeeze.

This is awful.

Hey, I did not write it. Just cut it and pasted it, dont shoot the messenger!!!

The more I read it, I find several flaws in it, like the "no weaknesses" part (I elaborated on the TE coverage part) and "just bad luck" parts. I have to see the smarts of those players in the playoffs to truly believe it. I still do not believe they are a fundamentally sound team because for 5 and a half games, they did not look like a well rounded team till that good half vs the Chargers. Offensively, the signs were there but not sold on the supporting cast.

Yes, there is definitely enough Bronco homerism in this article, however there are some numerical merits to it as well.

[Nobody]

Hey! This isn't an article about the Colts!

[dw49]

ESPN Insider article by Vince Verhei (pasted below):

If there's a favorite team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, it probably would be the Houston Texans. They have the best record in the conference at 6-1, they just waxed the next-best team (Baltimore) 43-13, and their only loss came at the hands of an NFC squad (Green Bay). Is there any reason to think they won't be hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy in January? Actually, yes.

The Texans are not the highest-ranked AFC team in Football Outsiders' latest rankings. That honor goes to the Denver Broncos, perhaps the league's most underrated team.

The Broncos are only 3-3, but that mediocre record is not an accurate reflection of this team's performance this year. Their three losses have come against three division leaders (Houston, Atlanta and New England) with a combined record of 16-4. And it's not as if the teams Denver has beaten are pushovers, either. Pittsburgh, San Diego and Oakland have a combined record of 8-10. All in all, Denver's opponents so far this season have gone 24-14. In that light, a 3-3 record is quite an achievement.

Denver has had the misfortune to play so many good teams so early, but its luck concerning bouncing balls has been even worse. Our research has shown that avoiding and forcing fumbles are definite skills, but actually falling on those balls is mostly a matter of luck. Denver's opponents have fumbled 10 times, but lost only four balls. Even more amazing, the Broncos have fumbled nine times, and their opponents have recovered all of them. All together, the Broncos have recovered only four of 19 total fumbles this season. That kind of bad luck is bound to turn around soon.

The good news for Denver is that their schedule is much easier in the future. The 10 teams left on their slate are a collective 21-42, and only one of them (Baltimore) currently has a winning record. Nothing is certain in the NFL, but it's hard to see Denver missing out on a playoff berth.

What makes Denver such a quality team? Not surprisingly, it all starts with Peyton Manning. The veteran quarterback ranks fourth in DYAR and first in DVOA among quarterbacks this season (further information on FO's statistics available here), and also leads the league in ESPN's Total QBR. Manning is doing what all great quarterbacks are supposed to do: make his teammates better. Last year, no Denver wideout made the top 50 rankings at FO. This year, the team has three receivers in the top 30.

It's not terribly surprising to see a Peyton Manning-led offense playing well. It's a little more shocking to see how well the Denver defense is playing, especially compared to its conventional statistics. The Broncos rank 11th in yards per game, 10th against the pass, 18th against the rush and 17th in scoring. However, they rank sixth in DVOA. The biggest reason for that difference once again comes down to scheduling. Denver has played some of the league's best offenses in New England, Houston, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. That's going to throw the Broncos' conventional numbers out of whack, but DVOA adjusts for quality of competition and bumps Denver up several slots.

The Denver defense ranks highly in DVOA not so much because they do any one thing at an elite level, but because they have no real weaknesses for opponents to exploit. The unit ranks ninth in rushing DVOA and 10th against the pass. A quick look at our front seven tables shows that they don't get a lot of stuffs, and they do a good job preventing long runs, but they're not terribly far from average in either category. They are sixth in sack rate, but they're not particularly strong or weak in coverage against any category of receiver (except in covering running backs, where they rank fourth). The one thing Denver does do better than most teams is prevent the long ball. They've given up only 16 receptions for 20 yards or more this year, tied for fifth-best in the NFL.

The stars of this Denver defense are somewhat unknown. Safety Mike Adams leads the team in plays (the sum of tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and fumbles forced and recovered), but he's not in the league's top 40 in that category. Wesley Woodyard has been surprisingly effective replacing the suspended D.J. Williams as Denver's top linebacker. He's in the league's top 10 with 23 run stops (tackles on run plays that prevent meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs), nearly matching the career-high 25 he had last season.

The top playmaker, though, has unquestionably been Von Miller. As a rookie in 2011, Miller collected 11.5 sacks, but he was one-dimensional, with only eight defeats (tackles that cause a loss of yardage, turnover or third- or fourth-down stop) against the run. This year, he's even more effective against the pass, with six sacks in six games. Better yet, he has blossomed as an impact run defender. He leads the league with 10 run defeats this year, besting his rookie total with 10 games to go. Only the incomparable J.J. Watt has more total defeats (run and pass) than Miller in 2012. In any other season Miller would be a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt is virtually a lock to take that hardware home. Could Watt and the Texans defeat Miller's Broncos in a playoff game, though? That's no lock at all.

Why is it when I copy and paste an article , I get spanked by the board moderators. Are there some aricles that this is OK ?

[-JJ-]

Why is it when I copy and paste an article , I get spanked by the board moderators. Are there some aricles that this is OK ?

no you are correct. Sorry,we'll pay more attention. <spanks Chad>

The rules is:

If you post an news, blog, magazine or other type of written/published article...please provide a URL link and do not quote or post the entire article in the forum. This is generally a copyright violation and it also takes up a lot of space. Usually 10% of the original material as a summary is acceptable, along with the link back to the full article

[Yehoodi]

well that win against SD was really big for DEN, they could of been 2-4 and 2.5 games behind SD, not sure if there will be a WC out of teh AFC west but there might be . .. but had DEN lost their playoff picture would be cut out for them . . .

but with the win they are 3-3 and in the mix with everyone on else . . . and seeing that the tough teams are behind them they could very well might a nice run and it will be exciting to watch . . .

[Qwiz]

Why is it when I copy and paste an article , I get spanked by the board moderators. Are there some aricles that this is OK ?

You just got someone else a spanking, sir. Are you happy?

[Qwiz]

Hey, I did not write it. Just cut it and pasted it, dont shoot the messenger!!!

The more I read it, I find several flaws in it, like the "no weaknesses" part (I elaborated on the TE coverage part) and "just bad luck" parts. I have to see the smarts of those players in the playoffs to truly believe it. I still do not believe they are a fundamentally sound team because for 5 and a half games, they did not look like a well rounded team till that good half vs the Chargers. Offensively, the signs were there but not sold on the supporting cast.

Yes, there is definitely enough Bronco homerism in this article, however there are some numerical merits to it as well.

[dw49]

no you are correct. Sorry,we'll pay more attention. <spanks Chad>

The rules is:

If you post an news, blog, magazine or other type of written/published article...please provide a URL link and do not quote or post the entire article in the forum. This is generally a copyright violation and it also takes up a lot of space. Usually 10% of the original material as a summary is acceptable, along with the link back to the full article

Thanks , JJ , I feel so much better now. Sorry Chad , I hope your butt is not too sore.

[BrentMc11]

Need one with Acme and Wiley the coyote...Meep Meep... Where you find all of these I will never know Quiz!!

[JoKeR]

LOLWHAT

mod warning: no large font caps!

[John Dee]

IMO Denver is going to run away with the AFC.

NE has shown me nothing... Pitt is old and ...... just old.. Houston, could make a push but has Schaub ever played in, let alone start in a meaningful game? Just wondering....

Manning and the Broncos will roll into the SB.

JMO. and Peyton will seal his legendary status as GOAT.................. if he can produce in the playoffs... (which is not a given)

[alexpr]

This is the most hilarious part. Man, look at those powerhouses! 8-10!! How did the Broncs manage to win against such stalwarts?!

And really, you're gonna cite the fact that they have a cake schedule the rest of the way as a deciding factor that they're the AFC's best team? Puhleeeeze.

This is awful.

Yeah you won against jaguars, miami, a really injured ravens, jets, titans

Your only have had 2 hard games, one against denver and you won it, and one against green bay and i don't even want to remind you how it ended.... sooo please stop it.

[Qwiz]

Yeah you won against jaguars, miami, a really injured ravens, jets, titans

Your only have had 2 hard games, one against denver and you won it, and one against green bay and i don't even want to remind you how it ended.... sooo please stop it.

Miami's doing much better than anyone expected, the Jets played the Patriots well and should still not be underestimated despite their record, the Titans are doing well with a resurgence of Johnson and Hasselbeck, and the Ravens are still the Ravens, especially since their offense is more dangerous this year. We beat both of our AFC, "hard" opponents in convincing and embarassing fashion, soooo....yeah. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who was a man on a mission after losing to an inferior team. The Texans are better than the Broncos, despite what this article would have you believe.

[alexpr]

Miami's doing much better than anyone expected, the Jets played the Patriots well and should still not be underestimated despite their record, the Titans are doing well with a resurgence of Johnson and Hasselbeck, and the Ravens are still the Ravens, especially since their offense is more dangerous this year. We beat both of our AFC, "hard" opponents in convincing and embarassing fashion, soooo....yeah. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who was a man on a mission after losing to an inferior team. The Texans are better than the Broncos, despite what this article would have you believe.

This will probably never finish, so we will have to wait until the playoffs! (I thought locker played against you, i don't really know but what i know is that CJ2K resurgence was one week ago, not against the texans.) At least the inferior team was able to not be humiliated by the packers oohh even better we won.

[Qwiz]

This will probably never finish, so we will have to wait until the playoffs! (I thought locker played against you, i don't really know but what i know is that CJ2K resurgence was one week ago, not against the texans.) At least the inferior team was able to not be humiliated by the packers oohh even better we won.

If we're talking about who's better, it's already been finished. We defeated Denver, and we had Manning in check until about midway through the fourth quarter. We knocked Locker out of the game early, actually. And since it's obvious you haven't watched any Texans football, Chris Johnson got 141 yards against us. You seem irked by the fact that I referred to Rodgers losing to an inferior team...which he did. I don't think anyone here is going to dispute that the Packers are better than the Colts. I don't care about the Packers game anymore, honestly. It's a paved path to the SB, and the only thing I am thinking about is a first round bye and homefield advantage.

[southwest1]

IMO Denver is going to run away with the AFC.

NE has shown me nothing... Pitt is old and ...... just old.. Houston, could make a push but has Schaub ever played in, let alone start in a meaningful game? Just wondering....

Manning and the Broncos will roll into the SB.

JMO. and Peyton will seal his legendary status as GOAT.................. if he can produce in the playoffs... (which is not a given)

I love the optimism John Dee. I truly do. However, next year is the Broncos SB run IMO not this season largely due to getting that entire Denver squad on Peyton's precision mindset and flawless level of execution.

Like my friend BrentMc11said earlier never underestimate the brilliance of Bill Belichick or Tom Brady. They are both lethal, calculated, proven commodities, and deadly when it matters most.

[southwest1]

Miami's doing much better than anyone expected, the Jets played the Patriots well and should still not be underestimated despite their record, the Titans are doing well with a resurgence of Johnson and Hasselbeck, and the Ravens are still the Ravens, especially since their offense is more dangerous this year. We beat both of our AFC, "hard" opponents in convincing and embarassing fashion, soooo....yeah. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who was a man on a mission after losing to an inferior team. The Texans are better than the Broncos, despite what this article would have you believe.

Right now, at this moment, you are exactly right QuizBoy. It's about all the corresponding pieces around both field generals. Advantage Houston. I'm not doubting #18's genius just the capacity of those accompanying pieces to be on the same page as Yoda AKA Peyton Manning immediately. Denver will get there soon; they just aren't there now. Defense not offense wins Championships...Key ingredient DC Wade Phillips for Houston IMO.

[John Dee]

I love the optimism John Dee. I truly do. However, next year is the Broncos SB run IMO not this season largely due to getting that entire Denver squad on Peyton's precision mindset and flawless level of execution.

Like my friend BrentMc11said earlier never underestimate the brilliance of Bill Belichick or Tom Brady. They are both lethal, calculated, proven commodities, and deadly when it matters most.

04 was a long time ago.... Just sayin..

wink, wink...

[southwest1]

04 was a long time ago.... Just sayin..

wink, wink...

Yeah, you're right John. The Patriots defense is not what it once was. In fact, I would say that that is NE's achilles heel specifically their secondary. NE beat the Jets and they deserve credit for that, but they should have demolished them not just squeak by in OT with a lowly FG kick.

It's weird just when I think Rex Ryan is about to get fired Mark Sanchez has a great game...I don't get it.

Just when I'm about to write off the Jets they show up and play nearly a Playoff caliber game.

[southwest1]

Another thing about Rex Ryan....He is not head coaching material IMO. He sucks at offense, but he does have a brilliant defensive mind. Could you imagine Rex with the Giants, Patriots, or the Saints as their DC? Holy Bleep man that defensive would be decapitating WRs, TEs, and QBs left and right. Just like his daddy Buddy, Rex knows how to instill a killer instinct in his D and throw both a symbolic and literal punch.

[Vance]

Yeah you won against jaguars, miami, a really injured ravens, jets, titans

Your only have had 2 hard games, one against denver and you won it, and one against green bay and i don't even want to remind you how it ended.... sooo please stop it.

Yeah, we've only had two hard games, because the other 5 we crushed the opponents so bad we made them look like high school teams.

But nah, Broncos are better. *Rolls eyes* That team is one guy away from being 0-6...sound familiar?

[southwest1]

Yeah, we've only had two hard games, because the other 5 we crushed the opponents so bad we made them look like high school teams.

But nah, Broncos are better. *Rolls eyes* That team is one guy away from being 0-6...sound familiar?

Vance is right. Without #18 in Denver's lineup no one would calling the Broncos Playoff, let alone SB contenders at all. Houston just smashed the Ravens on Sunday and Baltimore was 1 dropped endzone pass from going to the SB last season as I recall, but the Texans haven't beaten any worthwhile NFL squad yet. What a crazy notion. Very bizarre IMO.

[Qwiz]

Right now, at this moment, you are exactly right QuizBoy. It's about all the corresponding pieces around both field generals. Advantage Houston. I'm not doubting #18's genius just the capacity of those accompanying pieces to be on the same page as Yoda AKA Peyton Manning immediately. Denver will get there soon; they just aren't there now. Defense not offense wins Championships...Key ingredient DC Wade Phillips for Houston IMO.

My thoughts exactly my friend.

[BleedingBlue]

No surprise that manning elevates the play of his teamates. He demands perfection and he makes everyone accountable on both sides of the ball.

Not much use for having a QB know the playbook inside and out if the rest of his team doesn't.

[Vance]

I just think it's funny that Houston got a lot of grief when we were 5-0 and being called the best in the AFC...but people said we "hadn't played a good team yet" (which included the Broncos). But this article is pointing out the fact that the Broncos have only beaten bad or mediocre teams up to this point, and their schedule is chock full of bad opponents from this point on and yet somehow they're the best team in the AFC.

This Peyton Manning Affect works on so many levels...

[-JJ-]

I just think it's funny that Houston got a lot of grief when we were 5-0 and being called the best in the AFC...but people said we "hadn't played a good team yet" (which included the Broncos). But this article is pointing out the fact that the Broncos have only beaten bad or mediocre teams up to this point, and their schedule is chock full of bad opponents from this point on and yet somehow they're the best team in the AFC.

This Peyton Manning Affect works on so many levels...

Apparently you haven't been around here much. Peyton Manning operates on 32 different levels :yay:

[BayAreaBronco]

Miami's doing much better than anyone expected, the Jets played the Patriots well and should still not be underestimated despite their record, the Titans are doing well with a resurgence of Johnson and Hasselbeck, and the Ravens are still the Ravens, especially since their offense is more dangerous this year. We beat both of our AFC, "hard" opponents in convincing and embarassing fashion, soooo....yeah. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who was a man on a mission after losing to an inferior team. The Texans are better than the Broncos, despite what this article would have you believe.

Right now, at this moment, you are exactly right QuizBoy. It's about all the corresponding pieces around both field generals. Advantage Houston. I'm not doubting #18's genius just the capacity of those accompanying pieces to be on the same page as Yoda AKA Peyton Manning immediately. Denver will get there soon; they just aren't there now. Defense not offense wins Championships...Key ingredient DC Wade Phillips for Houston IMO.

I agree with you guys. I particularly envy Houston's running game. But we haven't seen the best of the Broncos yet, and there is a growing sense that it's coming soon on both sides. Having Chris Kuper back and being able to shelve the weak link in our O line is pretty big. I'm still viewing this season as our trial run for the next season, but we could get lucky, too.

[Superman]

LOLWHAT

Is this the article you were complaining about? My goodness. The writer of this article uses a bunch of different criteria to support the idea that the Broncos could be considered better than the Texans, but I don't think he really appreciates what FO's rankings mean. They're based on DVOA, which is an advanced efficiency metric. The fact that the Broncos rank higher than the Texans and the Patriots in DVOA doesn't mean that they are better, and I don't think the guys at FO who came up with these formulas would suggest that themselves.

If you haven't read FO's explanation for DVOA, you really should. Here's an excerpt:

DVOA has three main advantages over more traditional ways to judge NFL performance. First, by subtracting defense DVOA from offense DVOA (and adding in special teams DVOA, which is described below), we can create a set of team rankings that's based on play-by-play efficiency rather than total yards. Because DVOA does a better job of explaining past wins and predicting future wins than total yards, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better (or worse) a team really is relative to the rest of the league.

Because it compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, this advantage also applies vis-a-vis situational team rankings. The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it eliminates the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down. The same could be said about plays on fourth down or in the red zone.

Second, unlike formulas based on comparing drives rather than individual plays, DVOA can be separated into a myriad of splits (e.g., by down, by week, by distance needed for a first down, etc.). Therefore, we're able to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. All Pittsburgh third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. Kevin Kolb and John Skelton can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game. This doesn't just give us a better idea of which team or player is better. More importantly, it helps us understand why they're better, and therefore allows us to offer prescriptions for improvement in the future.

Finally, a third advantage of DVOA is that normalization makes our comparisons of current teams and players to past teams and players (going back to 1991) more accurate than those based on traditional statistics like wins or total yards, as well as those based on more sophisticated metrics that aren't normalized (e.g., expected points added, passer rating differential, etc.). For instance, which team had the better offense: the 2011 New Orleans Saints or the 1998 Denver Broncos? Going by total yardage (7,474 vs. 6,092) or even yards per play (6.7 vs. 5.9), it's not even a contest. The Saints were clearly better. However, this ignores the fact that the average NFL offense was much more pass-oriented, and thus more efficient, in 2011 than in 1998. If we take the difference in offensive environment into account by using DVOA, it turns out that Denver's offense was slightly better relative to the rest of the league (34.5% to 33.0%).

This ESPN article is incredibly lazy, and it misses the entire point of DVOA and FO's rankings. These guys aren't infallible, by the way. Their metrics aren't perfect. They just provide a more comprehensive and insightful way to look at the numbers. Having Denver at five and Houston at seven doesn't mean that the Broncos are better than the Texans. No stat exists that can tell you Team A is better than Team B, except maybe head to head wins, but even then, you need to know what happened in the game to understand why the game was won or lost.

What this isn't is an example of how stats are misleading. A poor interpretation of stats is misleading. The stats are what they are.

[southwest1]

What this isn't is an example of how stats are misleading. A poor interpretation of stats is misleading. The stats are what they are.

Exactly Superman, numbers are neutral, concrete, and factual. How these numbers get interpreted by some reporters is not always consistently neutral, impartial, or objective in magnitude or scope.

[-JJ-]

speaking of FO dvoa. Looks like they added another category on QBs called QBR (QB rating) which apparently is some formular devised by espn.

While overall DVOA is Rogers,Brady,E.Manning,P.Manning...........

P.Manning is no 1 in QBR with Rodgers 7th:)

[Vance]

What this isn't is an example of how stats are misleading. A poor interpretation of stats is misleading. The stats are what they are.

I never said stats themselves are misleading! I said people USE the stats to support their conclusions. Which is exactly what that guy was trying to do, albeit poorly.