Dan Graziano Trade Down

[Coltsfan0112]

Not sure if this has been posted yet and it's not coming as a shock but Dan Graziano reports that 49ers and Colts are looking to trade down. 

 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=19224795

[dgambill]

I think a lot of teams want to trade back because of how deep this draft seems to be. Not sure considering the high cost of the second pick they will find a partner unless Cleveland passes on Garrett. I think they would like to trade back to say 7-10 or so and take McCaffery but at 2 he isn't the value there. I think we would have a better chance at a successful trade back where we sit. It's the spot where those lineman should start to come off(Denver might move up)....Cook could be there (I could see TB moving up for him) and possibly a edge guy or cb that someone falls in love with that people move up to land (think McKinley/Conley) and I could see us moving back and getting a third and still landing a guy like Davis or Harris. Trades take special circumstances and nothing is certain until the draft starts unraveling....anyone saying they know otherwise is just feeding you crap. 

[Smonroe]

So, using his example, Denver is at 20.  That pick is worth 850, ours is 1050.  The 200 point difference is worth a little more than Denvers 3rd.  

 

Yeah, depending who's on the board, I could live with that.  

[Coltsfan0112]

42 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

So, using his example, Denver is at 20.  That pick is worth 850, ours is 1050.  The 200 point difference is worth a little more than Denvers 3rd.  

 

Yeah, depending who's on the board, I could live with that.  

I could too. Matt Miller said that from a source that the Colts really like Harris. If they can trade back a few spots and still pick up a 3rd it's a win. It would be sick to have a solid 1st round pick and have a 2nd (2) 3rds (3) 4ths and a 5th.

[NewColtsFan]

 

I hate to be the killjoy and I certainly have NO inside information....

 

But my hunch,  my instincts,  say that Elway will not trade the 82nd pick that's worth 180 points even thought it's a natural fit.     I'm on record as saying it's a buyers market, not a seller's market,  so I think we're going to have to settle for Denver's 2nd of their two 3rd round picks.     It's pick 101 and it's with 96 points,  less than half of what we'd want.

 

And for that reason,   I think the haggling is over what else we will demand Denver give us to make up for some of that huge difference.      I don't think i'd want to do a deal just for that 2nd three and take less than 50 cents on the dollar.      I'd tell Elway,   no 2nd pick,  no deal.     And while I don't think Elway will give up a 4,  I think he might be willing to give up a 5 to go with it.      Clearly he'd be more willing to give up a 6,  the question is,  would that be enough for Ballard.      My instincts say no,  but what the Hell do I know,   I'm guessing here....

 

But my instincts say we'd get the 2nd of the Broncos three's and another pick....     That might get the job done...

 

I know this viewpoint will be very, very unpopular,  but I think this is a weird draft and that the majority of deals will be discounted.

 

[dgambill]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I hate to be the killjoy and I certainly have NO inside information....

 

But my hunch,  my instincts,  say that Elway will not trade the 82nd pick that's worth 180 points even thought it's a natural fit.     I'm on record as saying it's a buyers market, not a seller's market,  so I think we're going to have to settle for Denver's 2nd of their two 3rd round picks.     It's pick 101 and it's with 96 points,  less than half of what we'd want.

 

And for that reason,   I think the haggling is over what else we will demand Denver give us to make up for some of that huge difference.      I don't think i'd want to do a deal just for that 2nd three and take less than 50 cents on the dollar.      I'd tell Elway,   no 2nd pick,  no deal.     And while I don't think Elway will give up a 4,  I think he might be willing to give up a 5 to go with it.      Clearly he'd be more willing to give up a 6,  the question is,  would that be enough for Ballard.      My instincts say no,  but what the Hell do I know,   I'm guessing here....

 

But my instincts say we'd get the 2nd of the Broncos three's and another pick....     That might get the job done...

 

I know this viewpoint will be very, very unpopular,  but I think this is a weird draft and that the majority of deals will be discounted.

 

Possibly. But there is more ways to make it work. Like say swapping a 4th for their 5th too or some other combo if we get their 101 then we get say that 5th or something. That said I want that 82nd and not impressed with the 101st..even if it meant swapping our late 4th for their 5th. That 82nd to me is like the tipping point in the draft. Kinda where that level of talent sees a big drop or players start having limitations or big question marks. Not saying there won't be diamonds in the rough later but percentages aren't on our side.

[NewColtsFan]

7 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Possibly. But there is more ways to make it work. Like say swapping a 4th for their 5th too or some other combo if we get their 101 then we get say that 5th or something. That said I want that 82nd and not impressed with the 101st..even if it meant swapping our late 4th for their 5th. That 82nd to me is like the tipping point in the draft. Kinda where that level of talent sees a big drop or players start having limitations or big question marks. Not saying there won't be diamonds in the rough later but percentages aren't on our side.

 

I don't think we want to swap pick for pick.     Because that means we're not gaining total picks and that's what Ballard wants to do.      He's trying to gain picks,  not just swap picks to get better draft position.

 

You may be right....    maybe that's the best Ballard will be able to do....     but I'm hoping a willingness to take the 2nd third round pick will entice Elway to give us another pick in addition.

 

By the way,   I get your comment about the tipping point...   and I concur...    I just don't know if there's anything we can do about that....

 

Believe me,  I'd LOVE to be wrong about this.      I'd love to ask for the better 3rd round pick and have Elway give it up!      Done! 

 

When I have a negative prediction for the Colts I'd ALWAYS rather be wrong and have the Colts get better,  than be right and have the Colts get a lesser deal.     Hey,  I like being right as much as any poster,  but not if it means the Colts do worse.     I'd much rather be wrong.....

 

[Defjamz26]

31 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't think we want to swap pick for pick.     Because that means we're not gaining total picks and that's what Ballard wants to do.      He's trying to gain picks,  not just swap picks to get better draft position.

 

You may be right....    maybe that's the best Ballard will be able to do....     but I'm hoping a willingness to take the 2nd third round pick will entice Elway to give us another pick in addition.

 

By the way,   I get your comment about the tipping point...   and I concur...    I just don't know if there's anything we can do about that....

 

Believe me,  I'd LOVE to be wrong about this.      I'd love to ask for the better 3rd round pick and have Elway give it up!      Done! 

 

When I have a negative prediction for the Colts I'd ALWAYS rather be wrong and have the Colts get better,  than be right and have the Colts get a lesser deal.     Hey,  I like being right as much as any poster,  but not if it means the Colts do worse.     I'd much rather be wrong.....

 

I think it depends on who the Broncos want. If by some miracle OJ Howard is there at 15 then we have all the bargaining power. But if they're just trading up Ryan Ramcyk then I agree with you that we'd probably just be getting offered their 2nd 3rd.

[dgambill]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't think we want to swap pick for pick.     Because that means we're not gaining total picks and that's what Ballard wants to do.      He's trying to gain picks,  not just swap picks to get better draft position.

 

You may be right....    maybe that's the best Ballard will be able to do....     but I'm hoping a willingness to take the 2nd third round pick will entice Elway to give us another pick in addition.

 

By the way,   I get your comment about the tipping point...   and I concur...    I just don't know if there's anything we can do about that....

 

Believe me,  I'd LOVE to be wrong about this.      I'd love to ask for the better 3rd round pick and have Elway give it up!      Done! 

 

When I have a negative prediction for the Colts I'd ALWAYS rather be wrong and have the Colts get better,  than be right and have the Colts get a lesser deal.     Hey,  I like being right as much as any poster,  but not if it means the Colts do worse.     I'd much rather be wrong.....

 

We actually would be gaining a pick...their 3rd. We just would be also swapping a 4th for their 5th....moving back on that part. It's not what I prefer but you could be right it might be the best we could expect but as defjam correctly pointed out...depending on who is sitting there available our leverage could increase dramatically....and if we can get multiple teams interested say both TB and Denver in our pick well then the now there is certainly more urgency on the other teams part. I agree Denver wouldn't likely want to give us that 82 but if they believe TB or another team is offering their original pick they would have no choice but to offer the better. It's something we will never know but I would love to sit in the war room on draft day...I'd pay good money....now that is entertaining!

[DougDew]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I hate to be the killjoy and I certainly have NO inside information....

 

But my hunch,  my instincts,  say that Elway will not trade the 82nd pick that's worth 180 points even thought it's a natural fit.     I'm on record as saying it's a buyers market, not a seller's market,  so I think we're going to have to settle for Denver's 2nd of their two 3rd round picks.     It's pick 101 and it's with 96 points,  less than half of what we'd want.

 

And for that reason,   I think the haggling is over what else we will demand Denver give us to make up for some of that huge difference.      I don't think i'd want to do a deal just for that 2nd three and take less than 50 cents on the dollar.      I'd tell Elway,   no 2nd pick,  no deal.     And while I don't think Elway will give up a 4,  I think he might be willing to give up a 5 to go with it.      Clearly he'd be more willing to give up a 6,  the question is,  would that be enough for Ballard.      My instincts say no,  but what the Hell do I know,   I'm guessing here....

 

But my instincts say we'd get the 2nd of the Broncos three's and another pick....     That might get the job done...

 

I know this viewpoint will be very, very unpopular,  but I think this is a weird draft and that the majority of deals will be discounted.

 

I'd take a less valuable pick in the 3rd or 4th to move down a few spots.  The draft is deep at positions we need and the extra pick will help a lot.  There will likely not be a player who is clearly BPA at 15 but several who will be bunched together in terms of rank.

[DougDew]

I could see Denver moving up for an offensive player and the NYG, at 23, have already publicly stated the desire to move up (if its true).

[Jackie Daytona]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

We actually would be gaining a pick...their 3rd. We just would be also swapping a 4th for their 5th....moving back on that part. It's not what I prefer but you could be right it might be the best we could expect but as defjam correctly pointed out...depending on who is sitting there available our leverage could increase dramatically....and if we can get multiple teams interested say both TB and Denver in our pick well then the now there is certainly more urgency on the other teams part. I agree Denver wouldn't likely want to give us that 82 but if they believe TB or another team is offering their original pick they would have no choice but to offer the better. It's something we will never know but I would love to sit in the war room on draft day...I'd pay good money....now that is entertaining!

lemme get this straight.....  move down 5 in the first, and move from 144 to 177 (our late 4th for their 5th )  just to pick up pick # 101?  No way.  5 spots in the first and losing 33 spots in the 4-5 just to pick up pick 101.....  meh

[dgambill]

2 minutes ago, Shafty138 said:

lemme get this straight.....  move down 5 in the first, and move from 144 to 177 (our late 4th for their 5th )  just to pick up pick # 101?  No way.  5 spots in the first and losing 33 spots in the 4-5 just to pick up pick 101.....  meh

No that was to pick up the 82nd if they wouldn't give it up instead of the 101st. I'd only do that for the higher 3rd rd pick and only then if negotiations broke down. I'd prefer a clean pick as the value even shows we should get more but I don't think we could convince them to do that in this draft with so many willing to move back.

[Indeee]

Regardless of what is being circulated, if Foster is there at 15 I grab him with the quickness

[Jackie Daytona]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

No that was to pick up the 82nd if they wouldn't give it up instead of the 101st. I'd only do that for the higher 3rd rd pick and only then if negotiations broke down. I'd prefer a clean pick as the value even shows we should get more but I don't think we could convince them to do that in this draft with so many willing to move back.

ah, ok.  to pick up the 82nd makes more sense than giving up all of that for the 101!

[dgambill]

3 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

ah, ok.  to pick up the 82nd makes more sense than giving up all of that for the 101!

Yeah. I mean they would already be getting a premium on the 82nd pick as is according to the chart so I agree no way I go just for the 101 or even swap picks. That said assuming we want that extra 3rd round pick bad enough I could see us making an offer for the 82nd....Denver offers the 101st...we counter by saying its worth the 82nd but to make the deal work we might split the loss of them giving up 19picks in the 3rd by us giving up 33 from the end of 4th to middle 5th to kinda meet them in the middle. Just a hypothetical...because I do feel its worth the first third...and I'm fairly confident depending on how the board plays out there could be several teams interested in that 15th pick (TB,DEN,NYG, SEA who actually has 3 3rd rd picks).

[krunk]

On 4/23/2017 at 9:14 PM, Smonroe said:

So, using his example, Denver is at 20.  That pick is worth 850, ours is 1050.  The 200 point difference is worth a little more than Denvers 3rd.  

 

Yeah, depending who's on the board, I could live with that.  

  Broncos | Broncos like Christian McCaffrey 'a lot'    Mon Apr 24, 10:08 PM

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey is liked 'a lot' by the Denver Broncos, according to general manager John Elway.

Link to story

[Smonroe]

4 minutes ago, krunk said:

  Broncos | Broncos like Christian McCaffrey 'a lot'    Mon Apr 24, 10:08 PM

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey is liked 'a lot' by the Denver Broncos, according to general manager John Elway.

Link to story

 

There have been stories about several teams really liking him, a few that draft before us.  If the Bronco's really want him, they may have to move past us and before Philly.

 

If you want a conspiracy theory, it could be that Elway is just trying to up his friend's son's value by putting that out there. 

 

But if they wanted our pick for theirs and their first in round three, I think CB would jump on it.

[krunk]

Just now, Smonroe said:

 

There have been stories about several teams really liking him, a few that draft before us.  If the Bronco's really want him, they may have to move past us and before Philly.

 

If you want a conspiracy theory, it could be that Elway is just trying to up his friend's son's value by putting that out there. 

 

But if they wanted our pick for theirs and their first in round three, I think CB would jump on it.

He very much fits the type of scheme they run.   And we know they love running the football.   I think there really is legitimate interest.   We'll see when the draft comes.

[Smonroe]

17 minutes ago, krunk said:

He very much fits the type of scheme they run.   And we know they love running the football.   I think there really is legitimate interest.   We'll see when the draft comes.

 

I know he's also been mocked to Carolina, but I don't see it.  Fournette fits them better.  He and Cook have been mentioned in Philly and Cook's stock seems to be falling.

 

As Gil Brandt pointed out, there's not a lot of separation of talent once you get past the top 10-12.  A lot of really good players will be available late in the first.  If we can move back and pick up another player in the 3rd, it would be optimal.

 

This draft is going to be a blast.  Can't wait!

[il vecchio]

3 hours ago, Smonroe said:

 

There have been stories about several teams really liking him, a few that draft before us.  If the Bronco's really want him, they may have to move past us and before Philly.

 

If you want a conspiracy theory, it could be that Elway is just trying to up his friend's son's value by putting that out there. 

 

But if they wanted our pick for theirs and their first in round three, I think CB would jump on it.

That looks like a fair and beneficial trade for both parties.  I hope it happens.

[James Sturgill]

Trade back to late first and select Jordan Willis. Edge from Kansas St.

Polian said yesterday he and Howard were as close to cant miss prospects as he has seen.