Chris Ballard: Redefining what Success means in the NFL

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, CoachLite said:

I would say "hire the best who's available for the job". If all the good / great GM candidates are gone, you're stuck hiring someone like Grigson (or maybe someone from this forum).

 

I often wonder, who's the best candidate to hire for an impossible job? Someone who can make the impossible, possible?

How did we get to this being an impossible job?    

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Am I the only one who really hopes AR and Steichen end up being a success story and this hypothetical Ballard firing doesn’t happen? 

No, not at all!   I’m knee deep in these discussions because the idea was floated what happens if AR doesn’t work out?   I thought it was important that me as a high profile admirer of Ballard would publicly say that I think Ballard would and should be fired.   
 

Of course that led to me saying I thought there would be a decision to hire Dodds or Brown to replace Ballard.  Which led to some saying if Ballard goes they don’t want him replaced in-house.   All must go.  I’ve been trying to convince that group that while going outside to replace your GM is the normal way it’s done in the NFL, for the Colts it may not be the best way to proceed.   And that’s where we are.   
 

Hope that explains….  
 

But clearly I’m with you in spirit.  Not only do I support Ballard, AR has become my new favorite Colt.  A great kid who is easy to root for!   

[ColtStrong2013]

Also- 

 

happy birthday Chris Ballard. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Pete Ward would be very involved.

 

I have to admit, I don't understand this conversation. First, Ballard will be the GM for the foreseeable future. Long enough for Steichen to be evaluated fairly, which probably coincides with Richardson's development. And it's my hope that they all succeed together.

 

Second, I don't think Irsay or whoever is making decisions in the future would hold back from replacing a GM because they're trying to avoid the inconvenience of replacing him or his staff. When Grigson was hired, it took him over a year to rework his staff, culminating in the hiring of Jimmy Raye. When Ballard was hired, he kept Jimmy Raye and Grigson's staff through his first draft, and then hired his own staff that summer. And of course, he didn't hire a new HC until the following season. These transitions required a lot of work and took some time, but that's what needed to happen.

 

If Ballard got fired, the Colts would hire whoever they think is best to replace him, whether it's an internal candidate or someone else. I think an external candidate would be most likely, but I don't think guys like Dodds and Brown would be excluded from consideration. Whoever they'd hire would then be allowed to re-staff the front office as they see fit. It might not happen right away, but the new GM would be given the chance to succeed.

 

Ultimately, I still find it mind boggling that Ballard's future is so hotly debated. I understood this as the team was falling apart in 2022. Since then, I think it's clear that Ballard was allowed to reset the operation, and will be here at least long enough for the new HC and QB to be established and evaluated. And if they all succeed, like everyone should hope, he'll probably be here even longer. 

Hey….  Good of you to weigh in.   I chalk most of this up to typical off-season chatter.  It’s slow and people float hypotheticals….  What if this happens?  What if that happens?  Just making conversation. 
 

Small favor….   I don’t want to repeat a long explanation of why and how we got here that I just wrote to Roller Colt.   If you’d please take a look at that, that would save all a lot of unnecessary overlap.  Shouldn’t be hard to find.   Hope my request makes sense?   If not, please ask me a follow-up and we’ll go from there. 
 

Many thanks.  

[Superman]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hey….  Good of you to weigh in.   I chalk most of this up to typical off-season chatter.  It’s slow and people float hypotheticals….  What if this happens?  What if that happens?  Just making conversation. 
 

Small favor….   I don’t want to repeat a long explanation of why and how we got here that I just wrote to Roller Colt.   If you’d please take a look at that, that would save all a lot of unnecessary overlap.  Shouldn’t be hard to find.   Hope my request makes sense?   If not, please ask me a follow-up and we’ll go from there. 
 

Many thanks.  

 

Yeah I read it, I think I get it. I know it's the offseason and there's little to talk about. It just seems like a lot of dogmatic discussion about a hypothetical outcome which hinges on other hypothetical outcomes, especially with how convinced people seem to be about the way these hypotheticals would/should play out. JMO.

[CoachLite]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

How did we get to this being an impossible job?    

It's only impossible if fans expect perfection. It seems some fans do.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah I read it, I think I get it. I know it's the offseason and there's little to talk about. It just seems like a lot of dogmatic discussion about a hypothetical outcome which hinges on other hypothetical outcomes, especially with how convinced people seem to be about the way these hypotheticals would/should play out. JMO.

Well….  I’ve been very involved in these conversations.  So to the extent you’re bothered by them then I’m happy to apologize to you.    Not my intention to bother anyone.   Just off-season conversation.  I think they’ve been mostly respectful. 
 

Clearly I admire Ballard, Dodds and Brown.  
Like everyone here,  we want to see the Colts succeed so these conversations eventually become meaningless.  
 

After last years enjoyable season, (for me at least) I’m looking forward to an even more enjoyable season this year.  

[GoColts8818]

6 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Am I the only one who really hopes AR and Steichen end up being a success story and this hypothetical Ballard firing doesn’t happen? 

You mean a fan cheering for his team to succeed?  Come on now you know that’s not aloud…

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Well….  I’ve been very involved in these conversations.  So to the extent you’re bothered by them then I’m happy to apologize to you.    Not my intention to bother anyone.   Just off-season conversation.  I think they’ve been mostly respectful. 
 

Clearly I admire Ballard, Dodds and Brown.  
Like everyone here,  we want to see the Colts succeed so these conversations eventually become meaningless.  
 

After last years enjoyable season, (for me at least) I’m looking forward to an even more enjoyable season this year.  

 

I'm not necessarily bothered by it. I was beginning to wonder how long the cycle would continue, though. Like you said, hopefully this whole thing is rendered moot this upcoming season.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 6/20/2024 at 8:02 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

For some reason, many don't understand that the QB makes the Coach and GM. Had Ballard had Andrew Luck all these years he would have a SB win by now and be way above .500 as a GM. 

 

Look how great a Coach Andy Reid was in Philly and his first few years in KC (won a lot of games). He even had good QB's in McNabb and Alex Smith and didn't win a SB. Not until Mahomes came along is when everyone labeled him a Top 5 Coach ever. Without acquiring Mahomes, KC would be another dot on the map, and their FO would be similar to ours. = FACTS!

 

Without Brady, Belichick would be just another good Coach.

Oh brother. Bill won championships when Brady was a game manager in the early years. They had a drought of not winning and those were Brady's best year's statistically. People just cant admit that it comes down to more than just one piece. You most likely win a Superbowl due to great coaching, drafting, free agency, and great qb play that all come together in that one year. It is all of those things coming together to win the championship

[jvan1973]

38 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Oh brother. Bill won championships when Brady was a game manager in the early years. They had a drought of not winning and those were Brady's best year's statistically. People just cant admit that it comes down to more than just one piece. You most likely win a Superbowl due to great coaching, drafting, free agency, and great qb play that all come together in that one year. It is all of those things coming together to win the championship

History says you win with a great qb or a great defense.  A great d hasn't won in a long time.   What does that leave??

[ColtStrong2013]

11 hours ago, Superman said:

Pete Ward would be very involved

honestly, how long do you think Pete stays on? He’s going into his, what 44/45th season with the Colts? if anyone wants to see continuity right now, it’s Pete… 

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Oh brother. Bill won championships when Brady was a game manager in the early years. They had a drought of not winning and those were Brady's best year's statistically. People just cant admit that it comes down to more than just one piece. You most likely win a Superbowl due to great coaching, drafting, free agency, and great qb play that all come together in that one year. It is all of those things coming together to win the championship

Brady wasn't Brady of 2007 and beyond but he was more than a game manager in 2001, 2003-2004. He was great in all of those 4th Qtrs in those SBs. Nothing against Alex Smith, he was good but he was a game manager. Put Alex Smith on those Patriots teams, I am not sure they win in those years. In 2003 and 2004, Peyton would not of lost to prime Alex Smith. 

[ColtStrong2013]

10 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Brady wasn't Brady of 2007 and beyond but he was more than a game manager in 2001, 2003-2004. He was great in all of those 4th Qtrs in those SBs. Nothing against Alex Smith, he was good but he was a game manager. Put Alex Smith on those Patriots teams, I am not sure they win in those years. In 2003 and 2004, Peyton would not of lost to prime Alex Smith. 

2003-04 playoffs, New England scored one touchdown in a 24-14 win… the rest were field goals and a safety. Alex Smith at qb (or anyone for that matter) wouldn’t have made a difference in Peyton throwing 4 interceptions. 

[Superman]

14 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

honestly, how long do you think Pete stays on? He’s going into his, what 44/45th season with the Colts? if anyone wants to see continuity right now, it’s Pete… 

 

He joined the team as an intern in 1981. So yeah, more than 40 years with the team. How long he will stay, I have no idea. He might retire tomorrow... I'm not sure how old he is, seems like he'd be a few years older than Irsay, so maybe close to 70? He seems to be very important to Irsay, for obvious reasons. He's the one who made the 911 call when Irsay was hospitalized a few months ago. He was standing at Irsay's side when he made his comments about Dan Snyder. He's been involved in all the big hires for decades, including Steichen a year ago. 

 

I brought Ward up in response to the idea that Irsay might not be up for an exhaustive executive search, and that maybe the Irsay daughters aren't 'ready' to fill that role if he has to take a step back. In that scenario, if that were happening in the next year or two -- which seems to be the timeline on which people want Ballard to be evaluated -- I think Ward would still be involved, and would help bridge any gap that might exist. 

 

Personally, I don't know if any of that is relevant. We might not be sure that the daughters are ready, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they are. At least two of them seem to be involved in the day to day, and Carlie especially seems to be preparing for a big role in the operation. She was the main point person back in 2014 when Irsay was in rehab and then suspended. She walks the sidelines on gameday with a walkie and a clipboard, she sits on league committees, and she was heavily involved in the coaching search last year. So in the event Jim has to take a step back -- which is an understandable concern, but also seems premature right now -- I would assume that Carlie would be the new CEO/chair. And even if that happened tomorrow, I don't think that would be the end of the world.

[ColtStrong2013]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

Personally, I don't know if any of that is relevant. We might not be sure that the daughters are ready, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they are. At least two of them seem to be involved in the day to day, and Carlie especially seems to be preparing for a big role in the operation. She was the main point person back in 2014 when Irsay was in rehab and then suspended. She walks the sidelines on gameday with a walkie and a clipboard, she sits on league committees, and she was heavily involved in the coaching search last year. So in the event Jim has to take a step back -- which is an understandable concern, but also seems premature right now -- I would assume that Carlie would be the new CEO/chair. And even if that happened tomorrow, I don't think that would be the end of the world.

 

Oh I think they are ready. They are right in the thick of it. Well educated and smart women. They are more in tune with the Indianapolis Colts than all of the new ownership in the league is with their respective franchises. I'm not concerned in the least with these ladies taking over moving forward. I think it's a great thing and speaks to the stability that the organization is preaching and looking to build. 

[BeanDiasucci]

I ran across this analysis on Reddit showing Ballard having the second-lowest rate per year of drafting Pro Bowl players among NFL GMs with a tenure of at least five years. I was kind of surprised by it, but it fits the narrative of him putting together a solid team, but one that's mostly lacking in superstars. I hope this improves with the results of our promising 2023 and 2024 drafts. 

 

 

The GMs

Chris Ballard, Colts (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Quenton Nelson, Shaq Leonard, Jonathan Taylor (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Eric DeCosta, Ravens (5 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, Devin Duvernay, Kyle Hamilton (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Jon Robinson, Former Titans (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jack Conklin, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Jeffery Simmons, AJ Brown (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Brian Gutenkunst, Packers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jaire Alexander (1)

All-Pros per season: 0.1

 

Brett Veach, Chiefs (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Patrick Mahomes (thank you u/darcys_beard), Mecole Hardman, Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Brandon Beane, Bills (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tre White, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Wyatt Teller, Taron Johnson (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Jon Lynch, 49ers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Talanoa Hufanga (6)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

 

Chris Grier, Dolphins (8 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Xavien Howard, Jakeem Grant, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason Sanders (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Jason Licht, Buccaneers (10 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Les Snead, Rams (12 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Janoris Jenkins, Greg Zuerlein, Alec Ogletree, Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley, Pharoh Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua (9)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Howie Roseman, Eagles (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts (7)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

John Schneider, Seahawks (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Dickson, DK Metcalf (8)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Stephen Jones, Cowboys de facto (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Leighton Vander Esch, Cee Dee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith (16)

All-Pros per season: 1.1

 

Kevin Colbert, Former Steelers (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Antwaan Randle-El, Troy Polamalu, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Maurkice Pouncey, Antonio Brown, Cam Heyward, David DeCastro, Le'Veon Bell, TJ Watt, Diontae Johnson (11)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Mickey Loomis, Saints (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jamaal Brown, Reggie Bush, Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Malcolm Jenkins, Thomas Morstead, Jimmy Graham, Cam Jordan, Terron Armstead, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Trey Hendrickson (13)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Bill Belichick, Former Patriots (24 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Light, Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater, Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Marcus Cannon, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Nate Ebner, Joe Thuney, Jake Bailey, Marcus Jones (21)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

[Solid84]

Don’t know if it really says a lot about anything? I mean he’s neck and neck with Veach who’s won 3 Super Bowls in 7 seasons. Also, I’m not sure Veach should be credited with Mahomes - it was Dorsey who drafted him. 
 

I do think a lack of star power has been a trademark of the Ballard era though. 

[John Hammonds]

25 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I ran across this analysis on Reddit showing Ballard having the second-lowest rate per year of drafting Pro Bowl players among NFL GMs with a tenure of at least five years. I was kind of surprised by it, but it fits the narrative of him putting together a solid team, but one that's mostly lacking in superstars. I hope this improves with the results of our promising 2023 and 2024 drafts. 

 

 

The GMs

Chris Ballard, Colts (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Quenton Nelson, Shaq Leonard, Jonathan Taylor (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Eric DeCosta, Ravens (5 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, Devin Duvernay, Kyle Hamilton (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Jon Robinson, Former Titans (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jack Conklin, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Jeffery Simmons, AJ Brown (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Brian Gutenkunst, Packers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jaire Alexander (1)

All-Pros per season: 0.1

 

Brett Veach, Chiefs (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Patrick Mahomes (thank you u/darcys_beard), Mecole Hardman, Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Brandon Beane, Bills (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tre White, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Wyatt Teller, Taron Johnson (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Jon Lynch, 49ers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Talanoa Hufanga (6)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

 

Chris Grier, Dolphins (8 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Xavien Howard, Jakeem Grant, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason Sanders (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Jason Licht, Buccaneers (10 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Les Snead, Rams (12 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Janoris Jenkins, Greg Zuerlein, Alec Ogletree, Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley, Pharoh Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua (9)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Howie Roseman, Eagles (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts (7)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

John Schneider, Seahawks (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Dickson, DK Metcalf (8)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Stephen Jones, Cowboys de facto (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Leighton Vander Esch, Cee Dee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith (16)

All-Pros per season: 1.1

 

Kevin Colbert, Former Steelers (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Antwaan Randle-El, Troy Polamalu, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Maurkice Pouncey, Antonio Brown, Cam Heyward, David DeCastro, Le'Veon Bell, TJ Watt, Diontae Johnson (11)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Mickey Loomis, Saints (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jamaal Brown, Reggie Bush, Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Malcolm Jenkins, Thomas Morstead, Jimmy Graham, Cam Jordan, Terron Armstead, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Trey Hendrickson (13)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Bill Belichick, Former Patriots (24 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Light, Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater, Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Marcus Cannon, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Nate Ebner, Joe Thuney, Jake Bailey, Marcus Jones (21)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

Let us not forget that there are also other ways of acquiring Pro Bowl and All Pro players besides drafting them.

 

2018 - Pro Bowl TE Eric Ebron (free agent 2018)

2020 - All Pro DT DeForest Buckner (trade 2020); All Pro ST George Odom (UDFA 2018)

2021 - Pro Bowl DB Kenny Moore (free agent 2017); 2nd team All Pro ST Ashton Dulin (UDFA 2019)

2023 - Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner (again); Pro Bowl QB replacement Gardner Minshew (trade 2023)

[BeanDiasucci]

15 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Let us not forget that there are also other ways of acquiring Pro Bowl and All Pro players besides drafting them.

 

2018 - Pro Bowl TE Eric Ebron (free agent 2018)

2020 - All Pro DT DeForest Buckner (trade 2020); All Pro ST George Odom (UDFA 2018)

2021 - Pro Bowl DB Kenny Moore (free agent 2017); 2nd team All Pro ST Ashton Dulin (UDFA 2019)

2023 - Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner (again); Pro Bowl QB replacement Gardner Minshew (trade 2023)

This raises the question of whether Ballard has been better at acquiring Pro Bowl-caliber players by trade or free agency than other GMs. The conventional thinking on Ballard has been that acquiring talent through the draft is his strength. 

[NewColtsFan]

17 hours ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I ran across this analysis on Reddit showing Ballard having the second-lowest rate per year of drafting Pro Bowl players among NFL GMs with a tenure of at least five years. I was kind of surprised by it, but it fits the narrative of him putting together a solid team, but one that's mostly lacking in superstars. I hope this improves with the results of our promising 2023 and 2024 drafts. 

 

 

The GMs

Chris Ballard, Colts (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Quenton Nelson, Shaq Leonard, Jonathan Taylor (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Eric DeCosta, Ravens (5 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, Devin Duvernay, Kyle Hamilton (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Jon Robinson, Former Titans (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jack Conklin, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Jeffery Simmons, AJ Brown (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Brian Gutenkunst, Packers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jaire Alexander (1)

All-Pros per season: 0.1

 

Brett Veach, Chiefs (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Patrick Mahomes (thank you u/darcys_beard), Mecole Hardman, Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie (3)

All-Pros per season: 0.4

 

Brandon Beane, Bills (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tre White, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Wyatt Teller, Taron Johnson (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.7

 

Jon Lynch, 49ers (7 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Talanoa Hufanga (6)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

 

Chris Grier, Dolphins (8 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Xavien Howard, Jakeem Grant, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason Sanders (4)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Jason Licht, Buccaneers (10 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr (5)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Les Snead, Rams (12 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Janoris Jenkins, Greg Zuerlein, Alec Ogletree, Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley, Pharoh Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua (9)

All-Pros per season: 0.8

 

Howie Roseman, Eagles (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts (7)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

John Schneider, Seahawks (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Dickson, DK Metcalf (8)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Stephen Jones, Cowboys de facto (14 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Leighton Vander Esch, Cee Dee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith (16)

All-Pros per season: 1.1

 

Kevin Colbert, Former Steelers (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Antwaan Randle-El, Troy Polamalu, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Maurkice Pouncey, Antonio Brown, Cam Heyward, David DeCastro, Le'Veon Bell, TJ Watt, Diontae Johnson (11)

All-Pros per season: 0.5

 

Mickey Loomis, Saints (22 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Jamaal Brown, Reggie Bush, Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Malcolm Jenkins, Thomas Morstead, Jimmy Graham, Cam Jordan, Terron Armstead, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Trey Hendrickson (13)

All-Pros per season: 0.6

 

Bill Belichick, Former Patriots (24 seasons)

All-Pros drafted: Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Light, Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater, Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Marcus Cannon, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Nate Ebner, Joe Thuney, Jake Bailey, Marcus Jones (21)

All-Pros per season: 0.9

My comments are not directed at you for posting this.  But the people who created this.    
 

Doesn’t it seem ridiculous to compare a GM with 7 years experience to other GMs who have experience ranging above 10 years?   There are 7 GMS with experience ranging from 12-24 years.  In what universe is that fair or appropriate?   One guy has 7, yet 7 others have 12-24 years.  Who makes that comparison?   Not me. 
 

I was willing to go with 7-10 years as roughly equal for comparison purposes, but beyond that it quickly became absurd.  
 

Of course, even in my version, Ballard is still last.  But it doesn’t seem so deliberately designed to show Ballard is bad at his job as the creator of this list appears to have intended.  
 

[NewColtsFan]

16 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Let us not forget that there are also other ways of acquiring Pro Bowl and All Pro players besides drafting them.

 

2018 - Pro Bowl TE Eric Ebron (free agent 2018)

2020 - All Pro DT DeForest Buckner (trade 2020); All Pro ST George Odom (UDFA 2018)

2021 - Pro Bowl DB Kenny Moore (free agent 2017); 2nd team All Pro ST Ashton Dulin (UDFA 2019)

2023 - Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner (again); Pro Bowl QB replacement Gardner Minshew (trade 2023)

 

Thank you, John!    
 

Big shout out to you for your very important post!    🏆.   

[BeanDiasucci]

45 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

My comments are not directed at you for posting this.  But the people who created this.    
 

Doesn’t it seem ridiculous to compare a GM with 7 years experience to other GMs who have experience ranging above 10 years?   There are 7 GMS with experience ranging from 12-24 years.  In what universe is that fair or appropriate?   One guy has 7, yet 7 others have 12-24 years.  Who makes that comparison?   Not me. 
 

I was willing to go with 7-10 years as roughly equal for comparison purposes, but beyond that it quickly became absurd.  
 

Of course, even in my version, Ballard is still last.  But it doesn’t seem so deliberately designed to show Ballard is bad at his job as the creator of this list appears to have intended.  
 

I'm not saying this is any kind of scientific analysis with great meaning coming from its results, but the analysis is based on Pro Bowl players drafted per year; it's the average number per year. So if you've been a GM for seven years, it's your total number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 7. If you've been a GM for 20 years, it's your number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 20. Again, not a conclusive look at anything, but not ridiculous as a method of comparison and isn't slanted against Ballard or any other GM with fewer years. 

[Superman]

15 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I'm not saying this is any kind of scientific analysis with great meaning coming from its results, but the analysis is based on Pro Bowl players drafted per year; it's the average number per year. So if you've been a GM for seven years, it's your total number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 7. If you've been a GM for 20 years, it's your number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 20. Again, not a conclusive look at anything, but not ridiculous as a method of comparison and isn't slanted against Ballard or any other GM with fewer years. 

 

True. I still don't love the analysis.

 

First, to be clear, it's based on All Pros, not Pro Bowl seasons. And it's really hard to make All Pro in any given year, only about 3% of players make it each season. Andrew Luck never made it, despite being a franchise level QB and a great draft pick. Same for TY Hilton. The exclusivity of All Pro makes it a really restrictive way of analyzing the quality of players drafted. And I might even argue that late round guys who drastically outperform their draft position (George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, etc.) making All Pro is more about good coaching + getting lucky than being great at drafting.

 

Another reason, it kind of favors players who had one good season and then fell off (Devin White, for example). 

 

An interesting case is Howie Roseman with the Eagles. ESPN just had a story about how interesting his tenure has been. He's been up and down, even was removed from the GM position during the Chip Kelly years, so I'd argue that Lane Johnson and Jordan Poyer don't even belong on his list. And since Ballard became a GM, Roseman has drafted just one player who's made All Pro -- Jalen Hurts. So his rate would be 0.1 in the last seven years. But I think anyone would agree that he's one of the very best GMs in the NFL, right? The Eagles have been to two SBs with two different HCs in that time period.

 

None of this is meant to defend Chris Ballard. You said he's built a solid team that's mostly lacking in superstars, and I think that narrative is accurate. I'd add that the overall quality of the roster is probably undermined by the lack of good QBing also; a good QB is a force multiplier, and makes other players look better. Either way, it's true that we need more standout performers, especially at critical positions. I just don't think this is a very good analysis.

 

However, look at the Cowboys... I keep saying, they draft really, really well. (Dak snuck on this list with a strong 2023 season.) If a team wants to build through the draft, keep their own, and contend in the playoffs, the Cowboys are the current model. Their main problem is probably coaching.

[throwing BBZ]

 

 I would remind that the path to these accolades is made easier when the Team is winning and your Team plays often in Prime Time.

 Check back after year 10 and see how it looks. 

 Like some of you other old boys here, fitty fitty I make it that long.  😏 

 To your good health and Goooo Colts!!!    

[NewColtsFan]

12 hours ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I'm not saying this is any kind of scientific analysis with great meaning coming from its results, but the analysis is based on Pro Bowl players drafted per year; it's the average number per year. So if you've been a GM for seven years, it's your total number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 7. If you've been a GM for 20 years, it's your number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 20. Again, not a conclusive look at anything, but not ridiculous as a method of comparison and isn't slanted against Ballard or any other GM with fewer years. 

Yeah….  But even on a per year basis, Ballard has had many, many years less to even try.    If you have less years to even try, then to me that’s a huge flaw.  

[BeanDiasucci]

21 hours ago, Superman said:

 

True. I still don't love the analysis.

 

First, to be clear, it's based on All Pros, not Pro Bowl seasons. And it's really hard to make All Pro in any given year, only about 3% of players make it each season. Andrew Luck never made it, despite being a franchise level QB and a great draft pick. Same for TY Hilton. The exclusivity of All Pro makes it a really restrictive way of analyzing the quality of players drafted. And I might even argue that late round guys who drastically outperform their draft position (George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, etc.) making All Pro is more about good coaching + getting lucky than being great at drafting.

 

Another reason, it kind of favors players who had one good season and then fell off (Devin White, for example). 

 

An interesting case is Howie Roseman with the Eagles. ESPN just had a story about how interesting his tenure has been. He's been up and down, even was removed from the GM position during the Chip Kelly years, so I'd argue that Lane Johnson and Jordan Poyer don't even belong on his list. And since Ballard became a GM, Roseman has drafted just one player who's made All Pro -- Jalen Hurts. So his rate would be 0.1 in the last seven years. But I think anyone would agree that he's one of the very best GMs in the NFL, right? The Eagles have been to two SBs with two different HCs in that time period.

 

None of this is meant to defend Chris Ballard. You said he's built a solid team that's mostly lacking in superstars, and I think that narrative is accurate. I'd add that the overall quality of the roster is probably undermined by the lack of good QBing also; a good QB is a force multiplier, and makes other players look better. Either way, it's true that we need more standout performers, especially at critical positions. I just don't think this is a very good analysis.

 

However, look at the Cowboys... I keep saying, they draft really, really well. (Dak snuck on this list with a strong 2023 season.) If a team wants to build through the draft, keep their own, and contend in the playoffs, the Cowboys are the current model. Their main problem is probably coaching.

You make good points. To me, besides being undermined by the lack of good quarterback play, the Colts have been limited by the lack of dynamic star players at DE and WR, which they have hopefully addressed (their list of All Pros under Ballard is light on high-impact players in the offensive and defensive passing game). Their last couple of drafts are very encouraging in terms of not just the current team but their approach and direction moving forward. In today's NFL, I think they should put more emphasis on elite cornerback play, too, but we'll see how that works out. 

[BeanDiasucci]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Yeah….  But even on a per year basis, Ballard has had many, many years less to even try.    If you have less years to even try, then to me that’s a huge flaw.  

If you think about how an average works, those additional years of trying have an equal chance of helping or hurting your average per year based on whether you are more or less successful in drafting in those additional years. This doesn't seem like a weakness in the analysis to me. I'll point out, too, that Ballard is first on the list only because it is in alphabetical order. The person who put this together doesn't seem to have any particular interest in Chris Ballard.

 

I think the biggest flaw with this analysis is probably that the average number of All Pro players drafted per year is a less than ideal measure of a GM's effectiveness in drafting. This might be, for instance, because some All Pro players are much more valuable than others -- an All-Pro QB might be a lot more impactful than an All Pro at another position -- and players who aren't All Pro might be more valuable over the long haul than a guy who was All Pro one year. Also, as Superman suggested, being named All Pro can be impacted by other factors, such as having (or not having) an outstanding QB to work with. 

 

Even with these significant weaknesses, I believe the analysis may have some small value in trying to provide an objective, quantitative measure to compare the number of star players per year that each GM has drafted. I think, for instance, it shows that Chris Ballard has not been more effective than most other GMs in drafting star players. Hopefully, his average per year will improve if we look at this again in a year or two, but of course that depends on Colts' draft picks of the last couple of years panning out like we hope they will.