Polian thoughts on draft prep

[Superman]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/how-nfl-teams-prepare-their-final-draft-board/

 

I found this to be very insightful, it breaks down several elements of an NFL team's scouting process and draft prep. He addresses two common draft "myths" in this article, I'm quoting that section below. The bolds/italics are mine.

 

Quote

 

Let’s deal with two such wives’ tales here. They are the importance of the Wonderlic test and arm strength. One measures mental acuity and the other is an important physical trait. Throughout my career, we used the Wonderlic test as a diagnostic tool and not a measurable one. If a player had difficulty reading or some other learning-related condition, it would show up on the test. That told us we needed to do further work on the player, and it never disqualified anyone.

 

Arm strength is great to have, but by itself has little to do with quarterback success in the NFL. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning had above-average but not eye-popping arm strength. We can get excited with the 100 mph fastball but there’s far more to being a winning quarterback in the NFL than that.

 

...

 

Let’s dispel another myth. In my experience, no player goes “rocketing up the draft board” at any time prior to the final draft meetings. The scouts, GM and football executives know generally what every player is during the preliminary scouting meetings held the previous December.

 

As new and verified data comes in, it is entered into the player’s file. If the data (good or bad) warrants a review, his name is placed in a review file, and he is discussed in meetings that will begin in about a week. His grade can change (up or down) after that meeting.

 

We had a rule that no player listed in the fourth round or above could move more than one round from his December grade without the unanimous approval of the executive team. A player (usually a greenie) could, with the same unanimous approval, move from Round 7 to 5 if new information (usually great workout times) indicated it was warranted.

 

That was the case with Robert Mathis, who went from the seventh round to the fifth to a stellar career with the Colts and, hopefully soon, to the Hall of Fame. He didn’t rocket up the board. His final grade and our ability to draft him were based on specific data and a rigorous process.

 

 

Kind of pedantic at times (which is a Polian trademark). But he gives good context to how teams use cognition tests, and especially refutes the notion of players climbing team's draft boards during evaluations. The idea that a player is moving up boards is more of a media thing than a reflection of how team evaluations work. Seeing a player light up the Combine or pro day doesn't mean that a GM suddenly starts giving a third round prospect first round consideration. The teams have already done a ton of work on these players and have a general idea of their draft grade.

 

What can change a player's grade dramatically seems to be medical evaluations. A team might be high on a player, but medical comes back with bad news, and now that player is off the board.

 

Anyway, good stuff, this article is worth a read for anyone who loves the draft. And this site has nice pieces from "insiders" on a lot of topics.

[stitches]

I wonder... how universal do we think those processes are around the league? Also... it's been like... more than a decade since Polian has been in a team's FO in the league. Do we think a lot or a little has changed since? 

 

The thing about the wonderlic is interesting ...

[krunk]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

I wonder... how universal do we think those processes are around the league? Also... it's been like... more than a decade since Polian has been in a team's FO in the league. Do we think a lot or a little has changed since? 

 

The thing about the wonderlic is interesting ...

Im sure he stays in regular contact with GMs around the league especially Ballard. I would take that to mean hes aware of the current climate and practices.

[throwing BBZ]

 

 I would like to know what Turay's grade was before the senior bowl.

His performance then caused Ballard to jump on him. Oops! 

 Banogu, Lewis, Hooker, his first draft, Green?, and the long, slow CB from Florida. 

[Superman]

33 minutes ago, stitches said:

I wonder... how universal do we think those processes are around the league? Also... it's been like... more than a decade since Polian has been in a team's FO in the league. Do we think a lot or a little has changed since? 

 

The thing about the wonderlic is interesting ...

 

His son has been on other teams for the last decade, including Washington now. He probably has constant interactions with current and more recent GMs. He gets asked to consult on big hires around the league all the time. I'm sure there's some variance from team to team, like the rule that they don't move a prospect more than a round without unanimous approval. Maybe some processes that have been updated or changedhere and there. But I'd think the fundamentals of the entire process are somewhat standard.

[stitches]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

His son has been on other teams for the last decade, including Washington now. He probably has constant interactions with current and more recent GMs. He gets asked to consult on big hires around the league all the time. I'm sure there's some variance from team to team, like the rule that they don't move a prospect more than a round without unanimous approval. Maybe some processes that have been updated or changedhere and there. But I'd think the fundamentals of the entire process are somewhat standard.

Yah, Zierlein has said in the past that Ballard studies processes and hangs with GMs from different sports too. He has mentioned he was close to ex-Utah Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey. My NBA team is the Jazz so I know some stuff about the processes the Jazz employed during the pre-draft when Lindsey was the GM. For example I remember Lindsey saying they don't build the draft board before they get all the information they can get - all the games are over, combine is over, workouts and visits with the team are over etc. He says he does it like this so they would avoid certain anchoring biases - i.e. if you put a guy high early, then you are less likely to be receptive to new information and you'd be anchored (even subconsciously) to your early ranking. This seems different to what NFL teams are doing.

[sb41champs]

GREAT GREAT GREAT INFORMATION & CONTEXT!!

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Superman]

19 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yah, Zierlein has said in the past that Ballard studies processes and hangs with GMs from different sports too. He has mentioned he was close to ex-Utah Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey. My NBA team is the Jazz so I know some stuff about the processes the Jazz employed during the pre-draft when Lindsey was the GM. For example I remember Lindsey saying they don't build the draft board before they get all the information they can get - all the games are over, combine is over, workouts and visits with the team are over etc. He says he does it like this so they would avoid certain anchoring biases - i.e. if you put a guy high early, then you are less likely to be receptive to new information and you'd be anchored (even subconsciously) to your early ranking. This seems different to what NFL teams are doing.

 

I think he's rubbed elbows with Daryl Morey, Theo Epstein, etc., so likely has picked up a bunch of process/data driven stuff over the years.

 

To the bolded, not necessarily. There are what, more than 10,000 college players in any given year? Most of the work is just eliminating guys from consideration. Even a powerhouse like Georgia or Alabama, out of their entire current roster, maybe 30-40 will eventually wind up in the NFL over the next four years? So a lot of the advance work is just determining which players will even be seriously scouted. And you still wind up starting with like 500 prospects each year. There are just too many players to put off coming up with some rankings and evaluations until "draft season." In the NBA, you probably wind up with 75 prospects each year, and 40-50 that you consider draft worthy.

 

And I think the 'we don't build the build until' stuff is probably overstated anyway. Everyone knows Wemby is the top prospect this year. Everyone had Paolo and Chet in their top five last year. Now the intense discussions and whatnot, sure, hold off on that and really finalizing your board until right now, the final weeks before the draft. But there's no way you don't already start preliminary rankings.

 

I do agree that it's important to protect your process from premature evaluations. And that's probably more important when you've fallen in love with a guy's tape, and think he's fast and a hard worker, but he runs a dud 40 and struggles through the field work... Will you reevaluate, or dig in on your previous conclusions? Maybe the actual board doesn't come together until now, but the reports are filed and reviewed, the discussions are happening, and they're putting grades on all their hundreds of prospects. Then, when they build the board, it's based on all the work that's been going on for the last two years, not just the last two months. 

 

I think Richardson is a perfect example of this. Everyone went nuts based on the Combine, but if you've watched the dude play, you already knew he was going to light up the Combine. So there's no reason to reevaluate or move him up your board, your grade should have already reflected what the Combine confirmed.

[DougDew]

The notion that players "rocket/rise up draft boards" being a media creation more than being an actual NFL process makes sense to me.  Just watching/listening to how information is presented during this time of the process each year has given me the impression that there is less substance to these movements than what the media would have you believe.   

 

Short Malik Willis was "rising" on "some teams draft boards" according to "reliable sources" into the first round.  It didn't bear fruit as he was drafted in the 3rd round.  Sam Howell who "rose" to the top of the second on some boards wasn't drafted until the 5th.

 

Stroud and Levis have the size, arm talent, and other metrics and the experience to support being a top 10 pick.  Young and Richardson each fail a significant metric.  We'll see what happens come draft day when the professionals actually start making selections.

[Moosejawcolt]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

I wonder... how universal do we think those processes are around the league? Also... it's been like... more than a decade since Polian has been in a team's FO in the league. Do we think a lot or a little has changed since? 

 

The thing about the wonderlic is interesting ...

I agree a lot and have been saying for months about the media hype that is related to the combines and pro days. That is why I don't really like the Kipers and Jeremiahs of the world. They have to know this stuff but after every combine and pro day they can be heard and then having a player jump up their boards. A perfect example is Richardson. After his combine and pro day these guys are saying he is a possible number 1 pick. I am really interested to see where he is drafted because if Polian is right, he should be drafted in the teens if not lower. Wouldn't the world be shocked if he actually  got drafted in the 2nd?? I do like the qb out of BYU and even DTR out of UCLA. I do trust in Steichen no matter who they pick

[DougDew]

45 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I agree a lot and have been saying for months about the media hype that is related to the combines and pro days. That is why I don't really like the Kipers and Jeremiahs of the world. They have to know this stuff but after every combine and pro day they can be heard and then having a player jump up their boards. A perfect example is Richardson. After his combine and pro day these guys are saying he is a possible number 1 pick. I am really interested to see where he is drafted because if Polian is right, he should be drafted in the teens if not lower. Wouldn't the world be shocked if he actually  got drafted in the 2nd?? I do like the qb out of BYU and even DTR out of UCLA. I do trust in Steichen no matter who they pick

But Kiper adjusting his rankings based upon his analysis of information isn't the same thing as another media type claiming rumors of a player rising on actual teams' draft boards.   We all know that Kiper is ranking his players based upon how he likes the players...for the most part.  We all know those are Kiper's rankings. 

 

Its the claims by others that players are rising on other teams boards with support from "reliable sources" that always seemed a bit fishy to me.  They are claiming they know how teams are ranking players.  When you look at the history of what teams traditionally value and what they typically don't, some of the rising seems fabricated.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

But Kiper adjusting his rankings based upon his analysis of information isn't the same thing as another media type claiming rumors of a player rising on actual teams' draft boards.   We all know that Kiper is ranking his players based upon how he likes the players...for the most part.  We all know those are Kiper's rankings. 

 

Its the claims by others that players are rising on other teams boards with support from "reliable sources" that always seemed a bit fishy to me.  They are claiming they know how teams are ranking players.  When you look at the history of what teams traditionally value and what they typically don't, some of the rising seems fabricated.

Yeah the Richardson hype is kind of silly. I really doubt if he was seen as  a top 5 pick 2 months ago so I am quite interested to see where he will get drafted. I am starting to think more and more that it will be in the teens if not lower.  I go back and forth on Levis and Richardson for the Colts. They had Richardson in for 2 days so i thought that said a lot until i realizsed that all the top teams did, I still think Levis is there guy if they do pick one of those guys with their top pick.  He just fits what Ballard and Irsay look for in a player but Steichen will have the final say. He liked Herbert and Rivers and I think  Levis fits that mold

[Smonroe]

Both Levis and ARs “rise” are more due to how QB needy teams are than their talent.  We all know that.

 

But not every draft is going to be like 1983, so teams have to take the chance that the guy they get fits the bill.

 

I can almost guarantee that if you looked at the Colts draft board, just based on evaluations minus the “position of need” factor, those two wouldn’t be in the top 32.  But that’s not the world we’re in. 

[NewColtsFan]

56 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

Both Levis and ARs “rise” are more due to how QB needy teams are than their talent.  We all know that.

 

But not every draft is going to be like 1983, so teams have to take the chance that the guy they get fits the bill.

 

I can almost guarantee that if you looked at the Colts draft board, just based on evaluations minus the “position of need” factor, those two wouldn’t be in the top 32.  But that’s not the world we’re in. 

I think I understand what you’re saying….

But, personally, I don’t think this is a very good draft.   That’s based on everything I’m reading.    And so I think the top-4 QB’s would easily fit in a top-32.   
 

Maybe not every year,  but certainly this year, and I think most years. 

[AKB]

13 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Both Levis and ARs “rise” are more due to how QB needy teams are than their talent.  We all know that.

 

But not every draft is going to be like 1983, so teams have to take the chance that the guy they get fits the bill.

 

I can almost guarantee that if you looked at the Colts draft board, just based on evaluations minus the “position of need” factor, those two wouldn’t be in the top 32.  But that’s not the world we’re in. 

I think they would be top 32, but maybe not the top 5 or top 10.  At the end of the day, QB is the most valuable position, and just based on that it gets pushed up.  Levis will probably at least be average, and you cannot deny Richardson's potential. But, Lamar did go 32 didn't he? I can't remember fully.  So you're definitely on to something there. 

[Smonroe]

1 hour ago, AustinnKaine said:

I think they would be top 32, but maybe not the top 5 or top 10.  At the end of the day, QB is the most valuable position, and just based on that it gets pushed up.  Levis will probably at least be average, and you cannot deny Richardson's potential. But, Lamar did go 32 didn't he? I can't remember fully.  So you're definitely on to something there. 

You and @NewColtsFan are correct, I was being rash.  
 

Let me pose this hypothetical- Say every team in the NFL had a starting QB they were somewhat happy with.  
 

I believe that Young and Stroud would still be drafted in the first (sort of like Mahones).  The next three would not.  
 

To be clear, I’m still an advocate of taking AR or Levis.   Point being, it’s position driven rather than pure talent.  

[Superman]

51 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

Point being, it’s position driven rather than pure talent.  

 

I think that's true, but I don't think it's unique to this year's draft. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance probably don't go at the top of the 2021 draft if not for the importance of the position. And I think there's probably at least 1-2 QBs in most first rounds who might not be a top 32 talent.

[Myles]

I know this is hypothetical but if the Colts were drafting #2 instead of #1 and Manning was taken first, would Polian have taken Leaf?

[Fluke_33]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

I know this is hypothetical but if the Colts were drafting #2 instead of #1 and Manning was taken first, would Polian have taken Leaf?

I believe he has said that he would.  They're eval of each was close.  He could just be saying that because he said it predraft and wants people to believe he was being honest then.  Who knows?

[Smonroe]

14 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think that's true, but I don't think it's unique to this year's draft. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance probably don't go at the top of the 2021 draft if not for the importance of the position. And I think there's probably at least 1-2 QBs in most first rounds who might not be a top 32 talent.

You’re probably correct, but it seems more position driven this year.  Wilson and Lance probably still go in the first in my “every team is somewhat happy with their QB” scenario.  Maybe Fields too.  
 

Last year was sort of like my scenario, even with some teams needing a QB, only 1 went.  Ridder, who went in the third, had a draft profile score of 6.36, ARs is 6.4.  (From just one source, NFL.com)
 

A true moot point to be sure.  

[Superman]

15 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

You’re probably correct, but it seems more position driven this year.  Wilson and Lance probably still go in the first in my “every team is somewhat happy with their QB” scenario.  Maybe Fields too.  
 

Last year was sort of like my scenario, even with some teams needing a QB, only 1 went.  Ridder, who went in the third, had a draft profile score of 6.36, ARs is 6.4.  (From just one source, NFL.com)
 

A true moot point to be sure.  

 

Wilson and Lance might go in the first, but I highly doubt they would go at the top of the first like they did. Just saying QBs get overdrafted every year, because they're QBs. People generally want to see a first round player ready to start in Year 1, but that criteria gets adjusted for QBs.

 

And I'm saying this as a big 'don't reach for need' disciple, but I think the positional value and market demands dictate that you just have to bite the bullet and get your guy.