The league of the scrambling QB and Sam Ehlinger is the latest experiment

[chad72]

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/10/25/23422203/indianapolis-colts-sam-ehlinger-matt-ryan-scrambling

 

[chad72]

@EastStreet you will like the data presented in here. Gone are the days of pocket passers that are statue like, dominating the league in quantity. The elite ones will still survive.

[Boondoggle]

I believe it to be a universal truth in the NFL that to be a great QB you have to win from the pocket.  There are a lot of QBs who can win from a perfect pocket too.  That list is quite long.  Where it gets dicey, and where that list shrinks considerably, is when you start playing with the variables.  The variables being things like pressure rate, quality of weapons you are throwing to, the run game, etc.

 

As you play with those and set them at an average level, the list of QBs becomes quite small.  And those are the guys who get paid.

 

The author of that article goes on about Hurts and running for first downs.  But here's the thing with all that: running for positive yards at a high rate introduces injury risk.  So yes it will help you win games.  Yes it will help a rookie QB if the edge rusher has to worry about the QB escaping the pocket and making him look stupid on film review day.  But at some point you face a good defense that will contain you, probably in the division race but if not you definitely will in the playoffs, and if you cannot win from the pocket your team will go home.  And at some point if you have a high volume of runs you will get hurt and miss time.

 

Hurts, incidentally, has an elite OL blocking for him right now.  Roseman did a great job building that protection around him.  So they are a definite contender.  They are for real.  But the first defense they face that contains him and pressures him, which will almost surely happen at some point, we will see what he can do.  And if he wins from that pocket then he has a chance to hoist hardware and be recognized as a great QB.

[DougDew]

 Statue isn't good, but a "running" QB is not the same thing as a passer who can scramble.

[DougDew]

44 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

Hurts, incidentally, has an elite OL blocking for him right now

Ya think pick #8 Davonta Smith and AJ Brown.....and their TE..... has anything to do with his transformation too? 

[NorthernColt]

20 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 Statue isn't good, but a "running" QB is not the same thing as a passer who can scramble.

Exactly this. Also, "Scrambler" gets confused often as well. Perfect example is Mahomes. He's far from fast, but he's quick and shifty, which helps him extend plays and move in and out of the pocket. You don't need to rush for 50 yards a game, just be able to keep defenses on their toes and make unagile DL miss on sacks.

 

When you have statues like Ryan and Rivers, the defense can just pin their ears back, put their heads down and rush, cause they know that guys going to be dead centre in the pocket and no where else.

[MPStack]

 

I dislike the term dual threat or mobile QB, because it’s puts QBs that are elite passers with the ability to extend plays like a Mahomes or Allen, in the same category as the L. Jackson or J. Hurts type. Who’s strength is their legs, but are limited or scheme dependent passers. Huge difference.

 

No doubt the game has evolved, but looking at starting QBs the past decade on SB teams, you see mostly elite passers. That will never change. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, chad72 said:

@EastStreet you will like the data presented in here. Gone are the days of pocket passers that are statue like, dominating the league in quantity. The elite ones will still survive.

 

I will take a read. I do know Indy was right about the NFL average (drop backs) last I saw.

 

But it's a dicey/complicated topic. And I'm sure it is even more complicated by traditional "bad" teams looking better this year (who really believes they will gone far?). 

 

It's obvious though. Best situation is having a QB that can both pass from the pocket, and also scramble / run when needed. But guys like Mahomes is a good pocket passer, who scrambles, but doesn't "run" much. 

[Boondoggle]

6 hours ago, DougDew said:

Ya think pick #8 Davonta Smith and AJ Brown.....and their TE..... has anything to do with his transformation too? 

Yes and those fall under the aforementioned variables.

[coming on strong]

If you can get a Qb that can play from the pocket at a high level plus be mobile it’s deadly . 
 

a pure pocket passer is dependent on his line and wrs .  We saw this with manning who is the goat .  Against the pats and Steelers when they dominated our line and wrs manning struggled .  
 

now if you have a Mahomes type player when the line breaks down and wrs struggle he can still make plays .  By running outside the pocket and finding space he can give his wrs ten plus seconds to get open and avoid the pass rush . 
 

it’s not about being straight line speed fast just slippery and shifty to buy time for the wrs to get open . 
 

[chad72]

18 hours ago, MPStack said:

 

I dislike the term dual threat or mobile QB, because it’s puts QBs that are elite passers with the ability to extend plays like a Mahomes or Allen, in the same category as the L. Jackson or J. Hurts type. Who’s strength is their legs, but are limited or scheme dependent passers. Huge difference.

 

No doubt the game has evolved, but looking at starting QBs the past decade on SB teams, you see mostly elite passers. That will never change. 
 

 

 

Yes, pass first will always win. "Scramble to pass first" is the variation with OLs not being well developed in college and teams around the league having some problem or the other to get an elite OL unit. To be honest, not many teams have elite OL units because just throwing money at OL doesn't always work. Bengals threw money at OL, yet Burrow is probably the second most sacked QB in the league. So, at some time, we all have to agree that OL performance is an extension of QB recognition and play. Brady got beat up by Miller and Ware in the 2015 AFCCG with a bad OL, yet he had more sacks than turnovers keeping his team alive and almost brought them back too. That is what elite QBs do - Peyton and Brady made the OL look better even when the OL quality in a vacuum, wasn't stellar. Incompletions and throw aways don't show up in stats but protect the OL and integrity of the offense.

 

It is not like Mahomes' SB winning year, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were elite, it is just that they bought enough time and got used to his scrambling as time went on to give the likes of Hill and Kelce time. Once they were gone, 2020 exposed the edges, lack of OL familiarity with his scrambling, and Mahomes ran more east west than north south in the SB loss vs Bucs and yet scored only 9 or 10 points. This year, they have relied more on possession wide outs more in the 10-20 range than going for bombs in the 30-40 range with Hill, and Mahomes being the elite QB he is, has adapted very well after going through a rough "adaptation" phase in 2021 with teams forcing him to be patient.

[Moosejawcolt]

11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yes, pass first will always win. "Scramble to pass first" is the variation with OLs not being well developed in college and teams around the league having some problem or the other to get an elite OL unit. To be honest, not many teams have elite OL units because just throwing money at OL doesn't always work. Bengals threw money at OL, yet Burrow is probably the second most sacked QB in the league. So, at some time, we all have to agree that OL performance is an extension of QB recognition and play. Brady got beat up by Miller and Ware in the 2015 AFCCG with a bad OL, yet he had more sacks than turnovers keeping his team alive and almost brought them back too. That is what elite QBs do - Peyton and Brady made the OL look better even when the OL quality in a vacuum, wasn't stellar. 

 

It is not like Mahomes' SB winning year, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were elite, it is just that they bought enough time and got used to his scrambling as time went on to give the likes of Hill and Kelce time. Once they were gone, 2020 exposed the edges, lack of OL familiarity with his scrambling, and Mahomes ran more east west than north south in the SB loss vs Bucs and yet scored only 9 or 10 points. This year, they have relied more on possession wide outs more in the 10-20 range than going for bombs in the 30-40 range with Hill, and Mahomes being the elite QB he is, has adapted very well after going through a rough "adaptation" phase in 2021 with teams forcing him to be patient.

Teams that have had success against the Chiefs play smart. 49ers look incompetent because they failed to adapt. Every successful team has played man against their wrs but the 49ers run that zone style D like the Colts. They failed to adjust and get out of their comfort zone and play man. The Bills play a lot zone but played man and beat  them.  The 49ers play zone and played zone against them and lost. U play zone when they had Hill. Their receivers are more possession who cannot play press. Don't give to much credir to Mahommes as it is more coaching malpractice.  That's what I hate about today's NFL and labeling all these young coaches as gurus. Ryan's for the niners is the next guru. Well he has a loaded front 4 and he looked horrible against the Chiefs. All these teams have young coaches who are trying to prove they are the smartest guy in the room.

[chad72]

19 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Teams that have had success against the Chiefs play smart. 49ers look incompetent because they failed to adapt. Every successful team has played man against their wrs but the 49ers run that zone style D like the Colts. They failed to adjust and get out of their comfort zone and play man. The Bills play a lot zone but played man and beat  them.  The 49ers play zone and played zone against them and lost. U play zone when they had Hill. Their receivers are more possession who cannot play press. Don't give to much credir to Mahommes as it is more coaching malpractice.  That's what I hate about today's NFL and labeling all these young coaches as gurus. Ryan's for the niners is the next guru. Well he has a loaded front 4 and he looked horrible against the Chiefs. All these teams have young coaches who are trying to prove they are the smartest guy in the room.

 

Yep, definitely agree, lots of good points. With Hill, more zone is necessary. What Bucs did is play zone vs Hill and manned the rest. Lavonte David's man coverage vs Kelce was stellar in the 2020 SB. This last meeting, Kelce learned from their defensive tendencies, the way the Bucs played him last time, and used it against them to get open consistently. So the adaptation happens both ways. You just need good offensive minds like Andy Reid or defensive minds like Leslie Frazier to adapt. You can man up if your pass rush gets there, like with Von Miller in the Bills-Chiefs game, and JPP/Barrett combo in 2020 (which was also a shame during all those Freeney/Mathis years when we didn't man up enough under Dungy).

 

That Bengals' DC did a heck of a job adapting too vs Mahomes in last year's AFCCG, a guy like Peyton or Brady would have overridden their OC calls and ran it more when they were dropping 7, rushing 3 and having 1 spy (Peyton or Brady won't have the spy but have seen plenty of 7 folks dropping back). Mahomes is not there yet or sometimes Andy Reid is too stubborn to run the ball.

 

The job is definitely made easier if you rush the decision making with pass rushers like Von Miller, Shaq Barrett etc. still playing at the top of their game. Bucs losing both JPP and Suh has hurt their DL big time, IMO. To me, it is still surprising how well JPP and Miller are still doing with their new teams. Players make plays regardless, as coaching takes you only so far but you do need the coaches to put the players in the best position to succeed, and DeMeco Ryans did not do that like you inferred vs the Chiefs, a failed audition, IMO for future prospects.

[RollerColt]

17 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Teams that have had success against the Chiefs play smart. 49ers look incompetent because they failed to adapt. Every successful team has played man against their wrs but the 49ers run that zone style D like the Colts. They failed to adjust and get out of their comfort zone and play man. The Bills play a lot zone but played man and beat  them.  The 49ers play zone and played zone against them and lost. U play zone when they had Hill. Their receivers are more possession who cannot play press. Don't give to much credir to Mahommes as it is more coaching malpractice.  That's what I hate about today's NFL and labeling all these young coaches as gurus. Ryan's for the niners is the next guru. Well he has a loaded front 4 and he looked horrible against the Chiefs. All these teams have young coaches who are trying to prove they are the smartest guy in the room.

It's so interesting to me that man to man beats the Chiefs. I remember last year Peyton and Eli discussed coverages, and both agreed that zone was harder to read and work against than man. 

[chad72]

37 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

It's so interesting to me that man to man beats the Chiefs. I remember last year Peyton and Eli discussed coverages, and both agreed that zone was harder to read and work against than man. 

 

It depends on the speed of the WR whether you want to bracket him. If Hill is on the field, a safety is rotated. If he is not, the other WRs are dared to beat man coverage since they don't have the route running or the speed, both of which Hill has. Mecole Hardman has the speed but hasn't showed the route running to beat man coverage consistently. MVS is inconsistent, he has long speed but doesn't get there in a few seconds, so routes have to be farther to utilize his speed. JuJu, he is more physical, so a bigger DB, a fast safety, can keep up because he will body up a smaller CB and use his big body to shield. 

 

So, most teams play a combo of zone and man, it is just too simplistic to say "you have to play man or you have to play zone". My view is, you have to play a good combination of it to keep the O guessing. That is why the QB and OCs send a guy in motion to see what they are playing on that play. But if you are playing a combo, you can play man on the guy in motion but zone on someone else.  

 

Then, you have individuals making plays based on their film study and things they recognize. For example, if 2 WRs are crowding in the same area, it allows a CB/DB to cheat and fool the QB because they are both reading the QB the same direction. That is why WRs have to understand spatial awareness so that they don't put their offense at a disadvantage. Yeah, I know, small details.  

[RollerColt]

53 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

It depends on the speed of the WR whether you want to bracket him. If Hill is on the field, a safety is rotated. If he is not, the other WRs are dared to beat man coverage since they don't have the route running or the speed, both of which Hill has. Mecole Hardman has the speed but hasn't showed the route running to beat man coverage consistently. MVS is inconsistent, he has long speed but doesn't get there in a few seconds, so routes have to be farther to utilize his speed. JuJu, he is more physical, so a bigger DB, a fast safety, can keep up because he will body up a smaller CB and use his big body to shield. 

 

So, most teams play a combo of zone and man, it is just too simplistic to say "you have to play man or you have to play zone". My view is, you have to play a good combination of it to keep the O guessing. That is why the QB and OCs send a guy in motion to see what they are playing on that play. But if you are playing a combo, you can play man on the guy in motion but zone on someone else.  

 

Then, you have individuals making plays based on their film study and things they recognize. For example, if 2 WRs are crowding in the same area, it allows a CB/DB to cheat and fool the QB because they are both reading the QB the same direction. That is why WRs have to understand spatial awareness so that they don't put their offense at a disadvantage. Yeah, I know, small details.  

Agreed. Peyton talked about liking man to man so he could pick and choose his matchups easier. If Harrison was being covered by someone that was at a disadvantage it was game on.

[Jackie Daytona]

Ehlinger is less "hopeful experiment" and more "breaking the stick off a bottle rocket and dropping it in after you light it to see what happens"..... Exciting... But it's gonna be painful as hell in the end.... And someone's losing an eye.