2021 Pats at Colts: TLDR, Matchup Stats, Pat's PFF, Chat, and Poll

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I discussed this yesterday with a few people in here. That will open up Hines to have a big day if that happens. Hines is a nice weapon to have. Don't be surprised if TY has 3 or 4 critical catches either, he is 100%. 

i hope you are right, hines can do it if he is used right, like the pats used wes welker catch and run

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

As of now I will roll with GB and Chiefs but the Bucs and Pats could make it. Pats have beat up on a lot of bad teams, lets see how they do us against us here at LOS. Outside of winning at Buffalo, they haven't beat anyone. We also beat Buffalo at Buffalo by 26 lol. I am starting to wonder if Buffalo is even good? I think it will come down Bucs at GB again in the NFC Title Game if both teams stay healthy. I see GB winning this time. Rodgers wants that 2nd ring to join the Elite 2 SB wins or more club.

I think this year is wide open for several teams. Should make for a fun playoffs. Buffalo is good, they just have some holes which certain matchups can exploit. Not feeling all that high on KC this year, but definitely won't rule them out. And AZ has been playing good ball. Not perfect, but they are playing as well as anyone. 

[NFLUp]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We also have 2 weeks to prepare, no way the Pats will win by 10. I will take that bet, give me 10 and lets bet .  We have lost 1 game by 10 or more this year and that was opening day 28-16 to Seattle when we are out of sync and Wilson was Wilson. No team has blown us out all year. This isn't BB and Tom. This is BB and Mac. Colts will win book it. Pats are due for a loss and have beat up on bad teams. You can't even use the Titans win as a good win because Henry and both their #1 and #2 WR's out. That was my lock pick of the week when those 2 teams played. I had Pats blowing them out and I was right. When we lost to them they were 100% healthy and they got lucky in the 2nd game, we gave it away.  

 

If this was BB and Tom I would pick the Pats of course.

Beat up on bad teams?

Browns were on a roll until they lost to NE.  Same with the Titans.  
Down goes Buffalo.

The Patriots were a FG miss from beating TB, and should have beaten Dallas.  
 

Patriots have owned the Colts for two decades. When was the last time a BB coached Patriots team lost to Indy?

[NFLUp]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Exactly, people like to talk about our schedule being cupcake year in and year out, their's has been putrid. They even played the Titans who didn't have Henry and were without both WR's. The Buffalo win was a good win but we blew them out.

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

[Btown_Colt]

2 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

Beat up on bad teams?

Browns were on a roll until they lost to NE.  Same with the Titans.  
Down goes Buffalo.

The Patriots were a FG miss from beating TB, and should have beaten Dallas.  
 

Patriots have owned the Colts for two decades. When was the last time a BB coached Patriots team lost to Indy?

It’s nice having a patriot’s fan back on the board….

Just now, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

Don’t forget the Jaguars 

[Btown_Colt]

9 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

Beat up on bad teams?

Browns were on a roll until they lost to NE.  Same with the Titans.  
Down goes Buffalo.

The Patriots were a FG miss from beating TB, and should have beaten Dallas.  
 

Patriots have owned the Colts for two decades. When was the last time a BB coached Patriots team lost to Indy?

Were the Browns without Chubb & Hunt? And didn’t Baker get injured that game and not finish?

 

The Titans without Henry, Brown and Julio?

[Btown_Colt]

6 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

Oh and the weather when we played them…rain.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

Neither team can really hold up SoS as some trophy. Indy and NE are 27th and 28th. And remaining SoS is 13th and 14th. 

I do agree though the Pat have overall better wins. 

Should be a fun game. I'd say good luck, but I hate being insincere lol... 

Regardless, like Btown said, nice to have opponent fans on the board!

 

[Btown_Colt]

9 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

Didn’t the Pats lose to the Dolphins? And isn’t 2 of your wins to the Jets and 1 to the Texans?

 

You serious right now or just clowning around?

 

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

9 hours ago, rock8591 said:

Need more Dayo at DE for this game to matchup against Trenton Brown.

Dayo, IMO should not be playing, because of health! we know more about him next year.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

1 hour ago, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

 

Vastly different.

And please , name ONE good besides the Bills  team the Colts have beaten.

 

Texans x2?

Jets?

Dolphins?

 

please.

 

SF There, and should have beat TB, Tenn, LAR, And Bal. NE OVERATED. Would love to see NE pass 3 times and beat the Colts. Won't happen!!

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 hours ago, NFLUp said:

Beat up on bad teams?

Browns were on a roll until they lost to NE.  Same with the Titans.  
Down goes Buffalo.

The Patriots were a FG miss from beating TB, and should have beaten Dallas.  
 

Patriots have owned the Colts for two decades. When was the last time a BB coached Patriots team lost to Indy?

LOL, they beat the Titans who were without Henry and both their WR's and it's not like we didn't play Tampa well either, they beat us with a late TD. We were on the verge of going up 17 in that game until we fumbled. 

[NFLUp]

23 hours ago, Btown_Colt said:

Didn’t the Pats lose to the Dolphins? And isn’t 2 of your wins to the Jets and 1 to the Texans?

 

You serious right now or just clowning around?

 

Did I bring up SOS?  Pretty sure that was the person I was responding to.

 

[EastStreet]

While I obviously want to win this game, I hope this is the restart of a good rivalry. 

The NFL is better when the Colts/Pats rivalry is a popular thing. 

[EastStreet]

 

Patriots 5 burning questions (from their site)

https://www.patriots.com/news/5-burning-questions-at-the-patriots-bye-week

[Solid84]

On 12/9/2021 at 5:13 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I discussed this yesterday with a few people in here. That will open up Hines to have a big day if that happens. Hines is a nice weapon to have. Don't be surprised if TY has 3 or 4 critical catches either, he is 100%. 

While I agree it will open up our other offensive weapons I think this is just what BB is counting on. 

 

1. Frank hasn't been good at using our other offensive players like Hines, MAC or TY.

2. WHEN he does try something that doesn't involve Taylor or Pitt it's generally been a huge let down wether it's been through poor playcalling or players not stepping up (Pascal). Of course Dulin has shown promise but with 1-2 targets per game we don't really know how he will react if he has to be primus motor.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

While I agree it will open up our other offensive weapons I think this is just what BB is counting on. 

 

1. Frank hasn't been good at using our other offensive players like Hines, MAC or TY.

2. WHEN he does try something that doesn't involve Taylor or Pitt it's generally been a huge let down wether it's been through poor playcalling or players not stepping up (Pascal). Of course Dulin has shown promise but with 1-2 targets per game we don't really know how he will react if he has to be primus motor.

This is definitely a prove it game, we either earn our respect here or it is back to we can't beat the Elite teams. I consider the Bills a signature win but I think the Pats are a better team at the moment. 

[BlackTiger]

On 12/9/2021 at 4:50 PM, NFLUp said:

And what was the weather like when you played them?

it did rain during the colts/bills game.  it wasnt as bad as the other night but still crappy 

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, Solid84 said:

While I agree it will open up our other offensive weapons I think this is just what BB is counting on. 

 

1. Frank hasn't been good at using our other offensive players like Hines, MAC or TY.

2. WHEN he does try something that doesn't involve Taylor or Pitt it's generally been a huge let down wether it's been through poor playcalling or players not stepping up (Pascal). Of course Dulin has shown promise but with 1-2 targets per game we don't really know how he will react if he has to be primus motor.

 

I agree with most of this. I started looking at snap counts, and touches per individual. Mostly (not all) I'd say overly possession type stuff. It'll let BB shorten his area to defend. 

[EastStreet]

 

 

 

 

[bleevit]

Rarely do I make recommendations to the Colts regarding a single game. This game is an exception. I believe everybody sweats what Belichick is going to do. I am not. The Colts offense is capable of being balanced and adjusting during a game to what the other team is doing. They have shown that. I believe the Colts offense is far superior to the Pats and the defense matches up very well with them. If the Colts successfully stop the Pat's running attack, it doesn't matter much what Coach Bill does. Just do what the Colts do and win.

[EastStreet]

Odds now 

Line : IND -2.0

O/U : 45.5

ESPN: has not changed much. Pats 53.6%

 

From early

Line: Patriots -1

O/U: 43.5

ESPN Predictor: Pats 53.5%

[JimJaime]

On 12/8/2021 at 8:14 PM, Colt.45 said:

The Colts are going to do to them the exact thing the Eagles did to them in the SB.

Huh? If that’s your D game plan to try and win in a shootout? That seems rather silly.. Or are you expecting BB to bench his top CB for no apparent reason? This post screams of someone who didn’t watch that SB! Lol

[JimJaime]

9 hours ago, bleevit said:

Rarely do I make recommendations to the Colts regarding a single game. This game is an exception. I believe everybody sweats what Belichick is going to do. I am not. The Colts offense is capable of being balanced and adjusting during a game to what the other team is doing. They have shown that. I believe the Colts offense is far superior to the Pats and the defense matches up very well with them. If the Colts successfully stop the Pat's running attack, it doesn't matter much what Coach Bill does. Just do what the Colts do and win.

Jones is very capable of throwing all over a D as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first play on O was a PA Pass and going deep to Bourne. 
 

I have only seen a couple games and outside of Taylor there is ZERO on your O that scares me and if Wentz is pressured and has to throw I fully expect the INT machine to return. 

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, JimJaime said:

Jones is very capable of throwing all over a D as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first play on O was a PA Pass and going deep to Bourne. 
 

I have only seen a couple games and outside of Taylor there is ZERO on your O that scares me and if Wentz is pressured and has to throw I fully expect the INT machine to return. 

While I agree Carson has been capable of INTs, he's currently 3rd best in the NFL (only one more than the #1) in INTs. So it's not really an issue this year comparatively. His completion % under pressure rank is also very close to his clean pocket completion % rank. So in short, he doesn't drop off that much when under pressure. He's the 2nd most hit QB, and 8th most pressured, and still ranks top 3 in least INTs..... 

 

So will he throw INTs if in a shootout or under pressured, perhaps... but his stats say he's one of the best at not throwing INTs when under pressure. IMO, he throws INTs when trying to play hero ball (down), not necessarily under pressure. But of course pressure is never a good thing lol. Pats have great DBs, so of course their chances at INTs is higher than most teams. 

[NewColtsFan]

19 hours ago, bleevit said:

Rarely do I make recommendations to the Colts regarding a single game. This game is an exception. I believe everybody sweats what Belichick is going to do. I am not. The Colts offense is capable of being balanced and adjusting during a game to what the other team is doing. They have shown that. I believe the Colts offense is far superior to the Pats and the defense matches up very well with them. If the Colts successfully stop the Pat's running attack, it doesn't matter much what Coach Bill does. Just do what the Colts do and win.

Food for thought…. 
 

New England has the #1 ranked defense in the entire NFL.   Number One.    Not sure enough people here are paying attention to this….

 

[EastStreet]

Just looking at them from and FPI and efficiency perspective...

 

FPI (Total / Offense / Defense / STs ) 

NE #5 (5.7) / #16 (0.7) / #1 (4.5)   / #3 (0.5)

IN #11 (2.4) / #9 (2.4) / #20 (-0.1) / #14 (0.1)

 

Efficiency (Total / Offense / Defense / STs ) 

NE #2 / #17 / #3  / #1

IN #7 /  #7  / #12 / #4

 

Captain Obvious

Our O is good, their D is great/elite, edge NE

Our D is mediocre/bad, their O is mediocre, toss up

 

So strength vs strength, and mediocre vs mediocre. 

 

Coaching might be difference. 

[bleevit]

On 12/14/2021 at 6:23 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Food for thought…. 
 

New England has the #1 ranked defense in the entire NFL.   Number One.    Not sure enough people here are paying attention to this….

 

I have the utmost respect for the Patriots defense, but everyone always wants to stop the run first. The Colts offense is dealing with this every week and the Pats are only 18th against the run. If the Colts can't run, they can't win. I think they can run and there is little the Pats can do about it. Further I think the Colts have the documented edge at QB. That never hurts. Lastly, the oddsmakers are usually pretty close to accurate ignoring outlier games. I think the -2 is pretty close. 

[bleevit]

On 12/14/2021 at 8:01 AM, JimJaime said:

Jones is very capable of throwing all over a D as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first play on O was a PA Pass and going deep to Bourne. 
 

I have only seen a couple games and outside of Taylor there is ZERO on your O that scares me and if Wentz is pressured and has to throw I fully expect the INT machine to return. 

So why play the game? It's over. Outside of Taylor? Taylor is there and so is the number 15 passer and number 17 pass catcher are also there. The Pats receivers are journeymen at best. Coach Bill does have them playing well. I just think the Colts stack up extremely well against this version of the Pats. Should be a good game.

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, bleevit said:

I have the utmost respect for the Patriots defense, but everyone always wants to stop the run first. The Colts offense is dealing with this every week and the Pats are only 18th against the run. If the Colts can't run, they can't win. I think they can run and there is little the Pats can do about it. Further I think the Colts have the documented edge at QB. That never hurts. Lastly, the oddsmakers are usually pretty close to accurate ignoring outlier games. I think the -2 is pretty close. 

 

To be fair, teams aren't going nuts stacking the box vs JT. He's 28th in average defenders in the box (6.5), and #20 in stacked front carry rate (17.4%). TB defended the run out of their base D, and did more run blitzing, then true stacking. But it was TB's focal point regardless of how they did it. TB had better base personnel to do what they did, but that doesn't necessarily mean NE won't try the same, or something different. We'll probably see a ton of Dugger from the star position, which could be problematic. But overall, BB is a better defensive mind than Knowles, who is pretty decent. Gonna be interesting to see what NE dials up. 

[bleevit]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

To be fair, teams aren't going nuts stacking the box vs JT. He's 28th in average defenders in the box (6.5), and #20 in stacked front carry rate (17.4%). TB defended the run out of their base D, and did more run blitzing, then true stacking. But it was TB's focal point regardless of how they did it. TB had better base personnel to do what they did, but that doesn't necessarily mean NE won't try the same, or something different. We'll probably see a ton of Dugger from the star position, which could be problematic. But overall, BB is a better defensive mind than Knowles, who is pretty decent. Gonna be interesting to see what NE dials up. 

I agree with your post for the most part. Should be a fun game! I believe this one comes down to which players beat their respective opponents. Just like every week. That 28th in defenders in the box is skewed a bit because of the number of snaps JT plays on passing downs. 

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, bleevit said:

I agree with your post for the most part. Should be a fun game! I believe this one comes down to which players beat their respective opponents. Just like every week. That 28th in defenders in the box is skewed a bit because of the number of snaps JT plays on passing downs. 

Pretty sure it's only measured on carries, not passing downs. 

And yes, should be fun (hopefully lol). 

I just hope we're quick to make adjustments. We know NE is. 

[JimJaime]

On 12/16/2021 at 1:20 AM, bleevit said:

So why play the game? It's over. Outside of Taylor? Taylor is there and so is the number 15 passer and number 17 pass catcher are also there. The Pats receivers are journeymen at best. Coach Bill does have them playing well. I just think the Colts stack up extremely well against this version of the Pats. Should be a good game.

Should be good game. Also don’t sleep on Bourne he wasn’t used right in SF. Also why would I be afraid of #13 and #17 when we have faced #1, #2 and god many top WR. That’s not what beats the pats so thus your #1 RB worries me.  I mean Pittman has 20 more catches for less than 200 more yards and 0 extra TDs to Bourne.  Also Wentz stat wise is pretty much the same as Jones the BIG difference is completion percentage.. where Jones is top 5.

 

All said it should be fun game, and hopefully no major injuries to either team. 
 

[EastStreet]

On 12/16/2021 at 1:20 AM, bleevit said:

So why play the game? It's over. Outside of Taylor? Taylor is there and so is the number 15 passer and number 17 pass catcher are also there. The Pats receivers are journeymen at best. Coach Bill does have them playing well. I just think the Colts stack up extremely well against this version of the Pats. Should be a good game.

All their starting WRs are solid. Agholor can get off. Bourne and Meyers both grade very well, and both have 600+ yards. Our #2 and #3 have 346 and 147 for comparison. All 3 are good in the seam, which is one of our biggest weaknesses in coverage. The only advantage we have at WR, is Pittman > Agholor, maybe. But their D may likely neutralize that. But Bourne and Meyers have easily been > than Pascal/TY/Dulin or whomever our #2 and #3 are. 

 

Will be fun. I think coaching will be the biggest factor. 

 

Some folks will give the fluffy "execution" will win this game, but coaching/game plan/scheme/play calling, are all things that factor heavily into the ability to execute. BB consistently puts his guys, even if they are not big names (Meyers and Bourne), into the best positions to succeed. Hope Frank can do the same. 

[jvan1973]

On 12/9/2021 at 10:12 AM, NFLUp said:

Patriots will win 10+.  The Colts will find out why the Patriots have the #1 defense in the league.

 

Patriots have two weeks to prep .  BB has what, a 85% winning percentage for the game after a bye?

Nailed it