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2021 Pats at Colts: TLDR, Matchup Stats, Pat's PFF, Chat, and Poll


EastStreet
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2021 Pats at Colts: TLDR, Matchup Stats, Pat's PFF, Chat, and Poll  

58 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the outcome be?

    • Colts by 21 or more
    • Colts by 14-20
    • Colts by 7-13
    • Colts by 1-6
    • Opponent by 1-6
    • Opponent by 7-13
    • Opponent by 14-20
      0
    • Opponent by 21 or more
  2. 2. Will JT have 100 or more rushing yards?

  3. 3. Will Wentz have 250 or more passing yards?

  4. 4. How many INTs will Wentz have?

  5. 5. How many sacks will the Colts D get?

  6. 6. Who will win the turnover battle


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  • Poll closed on 12/18/2021 at 05:00 PM

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Getting this out early as next week will be busy.

 

  • TLDR Summary of TB
    • Pat's O (General) - Top 10 and efficient. Balanced, and can win either way when needed.
      • Pat's Passing O - Underrated. Jones grades well, great passer rating, and has a great AVG. BB slow playing Jones. Underrated quality WRs and TEs.
      • Pat's Run O - Underrated. RB by committee, but very effective. Top 5 rushing % 
    • Pat's D (General) - Top 5 with some big time performers.
      • Pat's Passing D - #1 in INTs, and #7 in sack %. Both Ss are studs. Jackson (CB) and Dugger (Star/NB) are studs. Van Noy (LB a stud PD wise)... And upfront, Judon is #3 in sacks. 
      • Pat's Run D - Leaky, but will likely change things up against us. Don't be shocked to see run blitzing (not necessarily a stacked box)
  • Keys to Game
    • On O - Balance. Of course we attack them with the run, but will need to be efficient throwing, as BB will likely attack our run. Can't be too risky throwing against NE's secondary.
    • On D -  All but one (Agholor) offensive skill player for the Pats is grading in the 70s, so BB has options, and is great game planning and adjusting. You have to think they will run, but also attack our zone short and vertical. Look for them to try and pass into the seam, but also try to get Willis, Moore, and Oke in vertical situations. Hope we press and man up a bit more to counter. 
  • Odds
    • Line: Patriots -1
    • O/U: 43.5
    • ESPN Predictor: Pats 53.5%

 

 

  • Offense - Pats / Indy
    • PPG - #8 / #4
    • RZ% - #26 / #21
    • 3D% - #7 / #8
    • YPG - #11 / #18
    • TOP - #10 / #3
    • RYPG - #11 / #2
    • RYPA - #16 / #1
    • PYPG - #19 / #22
    • PYPA - #6 / #21
    • Rush Play % - #4 / #8
    • QB Sack % - #17 / #8
    • Pass Rating - #8 / #14
  • Defense - Pats / Indy
    • PPG - #1 / #10
    • RZ% - #2 / #29
    • 3D% - #6 / #14
    • YPG -  #3 / #13
    • RYPG - #19 / #15
    • RYPA - #22 / #25
    • PYPG - #3 / #12
    • PYPA - #2 / #16
    • INT% - #1 / #5
    • Pressure % - #16 / #30
    • QB Sack % - #7 / #17
    • Pass Rating - #2 / #16

 

Note - If you ever wonder why people respect Belichick, just look at his offensive player grades. All but one starter is in the 70s. And that guy is high 60s, and is Nelson Agholor... He gets guys that play well in his offense, and puts them in the best position to succeed. Probably the most well rounded grading of any offense in the NFL. And with a very conservative plan for a rook QB. Also he's swapped out DBs a lot, and still has an elite pass D.

 

PFF Grades

  • Offense
    • QB Mac Jones    97%  - 83.0
    • RB Damien Harris Q  39%  - 84.9
      • Rhamondre Stevenson  22%  - 78.4
      • Brandon Bolden  27%  - 78.1
    • FB Jakob Johnson  29%  - NA
    • WR Jakobi Meyers  85%  - 73.3
      • N'Keal Harry  26%  - 76.7
    • WR Nelson Agholor  84%    - 67.2
    • WR Kendrick Bourne  50%   - 77.9
    • TE Hunter Henry  67%  - 72.1
      • Jonnu Smith  50% - 57.6
    • LT Isaiah Wynn    85%  - 75.5 (5 sacks allowed)
    • LG Ted Karras  70%  - 72.1 (3)
    • C David Andrews  100%  - 76.4 (1)
    • RG Shaq Mason  84%  - 86.0 (1)
    • RT Trent Brown  27%  - 83.6 (1)
  • Defense
    • Plays 3-4-4 (a little 4-3-4 I think) and  3-3-5 (with a "star" DB/LB hybrid)
    • Base coverage was Cover-3 mostly in 2020
    • 3rd down coverage was mostly Cover-1 with a hole player in 2020
      • LDE  Deatrich Wise Jr. 54% - 67.2 (3 sacks)
        • Carl Davis  26%  - 40 (1)
      • RDT Davon Godchaux    58%  - 63.7 (1)
        • Christian Barmore  57% - 62.9 (1)
      • RDE Lawrence Guy  48% - 60.4 (2)
        • Chase Winovich  11% - 55.3 
      • WLB/Edge Matthew Judon  84% - 66.4 (14) - #3 in the league in sacks
      • MLB Dont'a Hightower    64% - 58.1
        • Ja'Whaun Bentley  62% - 66.7
      • SLB Kyle Van Noy 70%    - 69.5 - #1 in the league in LB PDs
        • Jamie Collins Sr.  9% - 70.0
      • LCB J.C. Jackson  86% - 77.6 (7 INTs) - #2 in the league in INTs, #1 in PDs, #2 in passer rating allowed
        • Myles Bryant  33% - 67.3
      • RCB Jalen Mills     80% - 64.1
        • Joejuan Williams  29%  - 65.7
      • Star Kyle Dugger O    76% - 70.3 (3)
      • SS/Box Adrian Phillips Q  82%    - 83.1 (4) #7 in the league in INTs
      • FS Devin McCourty  93% - 74.2 (2) - #1 in the league (all players) in passer rating allowed

    

 

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I hope we destroy them honestly not just win.

 

I'm praying we don't have one of those games we've had against them in years past where it looks like JV vs Varsity.

 

Still remember Luck getting driven into the ground by 2 guys like a ragdoll with no flag of course or Peyton having his happy feet/pouty face games earlier in his career.

 

Hope Wentz and JT go ham on them. 

 

Frank better have the entire playbook open and ready to go. Defense better not allow Macaroni Jones to look like a 25 year old Brady slicing us up.

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I think just like the Bucs game they will make taking away the run their number one goal and Frank will quickly abandon it. Leading to turnovers by Wentz and a close loss. Hopefully im wrong but BB has had the Colts number forever it seems also Frank and this squad just can't finish off good teams.

 

Maybe this is the game everything changes and we finally beat a top tier team and roll into the playoffs but my above prediction is my honest thoughts. 

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7 minutes ago, IinD said:

I hope we destroy them honestly not just win.

 

I'm praying we don't have one of those games we've had against them in years past where it looks like JV vs Varsity.

 

Still remember Luck getting driven into the ground by 2 guys like a ragdoll with no flag of course or Peyton having his happy feet/pouty face games earlier in his career.

 

Hope Wentz and JT go ham on them. 

 

Frank better have the entire playbook open and ready to go. Defense better not allow Macaroni Jones to look like a 25 year old Brady slicing us up.

 

Yup. Have to bring our A-game.

 

You know BB will bring a good and perhaps unique game plan on both sides. Reich needs to be ready to make adjustments on the fly, as BB is one of the quickest and best adjusters in the league.

 

I'd like to think JT and our running game can impose our will, but my gut says we'll need more. If NE has a weak spot though, it's Run D.

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1 minute ago, Nesjan3 said:

I think just like the Bucs game they will make taking away the run their number one goal and Frank will quickly abandon it. Leading to turnovers by Wentz and a close loss. Hopefully im wrong but BB has had the Colts number forever it seems also Frank and this squad just can't finish off good teams.

 

Maybe this is the game everything changes and we finally beat a top tier team and roll into the playoffs but my above prediction is my honest thoughts. 

 

A lot of me feels the exact same way. Great post.

Bucs have a better run D though overall, and it'll be interesting to see BB tried to stop JT.

IMO, we'll see a ton of run blitzing, but run blitzing doesn't necessarily mean stacked boxes. 

Could be a huge game for Dugger (their "star" position) IMO.

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15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Yup. Have to bring our A-game.

 

You know BB will bring a good and perhaps unique game plan on both sides. Reich needs to be ready to make adjustments on the fly, as BB is one of the quickest and best adjusters in the league.

 

I'd like to think JT and our running game can impose our will, but my gut says we'll need more. If NE has a weak spot though, it's Run D.

Exactly. He's going to do what he's done to us in years past. Those years we were soft in the middle (sadly like this year) Gronk would go wild on us.

 

We'd send our DE's wide at 100MPH and he'd just tell Dillon/Faulk or whoever the hell they had at the time go that way.

 

He'd give us the run eventually after stuffing it early on and sure enough we'd go pass happy and those 3/4 lb's would just flood the field and we'd look totally lost.

 

I agree run it on them even if it's not going well and they can't get scared so to speak, take smart deep shoots and don't forget the TE's even if it's chump change type gains. 

 

And obviously no mistakes which always becomes an avalanche against them.

 

Literally the only team that gets my blood boiling.. Lol

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11 minutes ago, IinD said:

Exactly. He's going to do what he's done to us in years past. Those years we were soft in the middle (sadly like this year) Gronk would go wild on us.

 

We'd send our DE's wide at 100MPH and he'd just tell Dillon/Faulk or whoever the hell they had at the time go that way.

 

He'd give us the run eventually after stuffing it early on and sure enough we'd go pass happy and those 3/4 lb's would just flood the field and we'd look totally lost.

 

I agree run it on them even if it's not going well and they can't get scared so to speak, take smart deep shoots and don't forget the TE's even if it's chump change type gains. 

 

And obviously no mistakes which always becomes an avalanche against them.

 

Literally the only team that gets my blood boiling.. Lol

Yup. BB is both simple, and brilliant. He'll be simple as he'll attack our obvious weaknesses. But you never know really how exactly he will do the attacking. And he's almost already ready for the adjustment you'll make to try and diminish your weakness.

 

If we have to pass though, at least we won't be getting into a shootout with the Goat like with TB. But regardless, just can't abandon the run this week. And while Bowles is very smart, BB is smarter. 

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Getting a feel for a majority of the posts it would appear that people have a greater sense of respect (fear in “some” cases) for the patriots than they did for Tampa which has a slew of offensive weapons, the best defense (according to PFF grades), and THE GOAT.  PTSD from the Manning years being the prognosis  


Bill is great and my disdain for that team runs deep, but for the first time in a while I’m feeling pretty good about our chances and how physical we have become over the years. 

 

My take? Not sure how much say Reich had in preparing for the Super Bowl against them last time he faced Belchick but it was an offensive EXPLOSION. Now Frank has better weapons on top of two weeks to prepare. All the pressure will be on Eberflus to have the game plan of his life. Could be the season….

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35 minutes ago, adubb84 said:

Getting a feel for a majority of the posts it would appear that people have a greater sense of respect (fear in “some” cases) for the patriots than they did for Tampa which has a slew of offensive weapons, the best defense (according to PFF grades), and THE GOAT.  PTSD from the Manning years being the prognosis  


Bill is great and my disdain for that team runs deep, but for the first time in a while I’m feeling pretty good about our chances and how physical we have become over the years. 

 

My take? Not sure how much say Reich had in preparing for the Super Bowl against them last time he faced Belchick but it was an offensive EXPLOSION. Now Frank has better weapons on top of two weeks to prepare. All the pressure will be on Eberflus to have the game plan of his life. Could be the season….

 

I'd point out both teams have 2 weeks to prepare. 

And I think both sides of the ball bring intriguing matchups. Not just pressure on Flus.

No fear, just respect. BB is also known as THE GOAT

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I'd point out both teams have 2 weeks to prepare. 

And I think both sides of the ball bring intriguing matchups. Not just pressure on Flus.

No fear, just respect. BB is also known as THE GOAT

Yeah…..True. Just providing a different vantage point as some flat out think it will be a laugher for the bad guys. Frank will feel it, Flus needs to deliver. Either way I’m anxious and it will absolutely be intriguing. Defining moment for us. 

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5 minutes ago, adubb84 said:

Yeah…..True. Just providing a different vantage point as some flat out think it will be a laugher for the bad guys. Frank will feel it, Flus needs to deliver. Either way I’m anxious and it will absolutely be intriguing. Defining moment for us. 

I picked a 1-6 pt win for Indy. I think it will be one of those games that is back and forth in the 2H. 

NE really hasn't gotten a lot of credit or hype this year on either side of the ball, but folks are starting to notice finally. 

I hope we smack them good. We could really make a statement beating the #1 AFC team next week, and the #1 NFC team the week after. Both NE and AZ were not predicted to where they are now at the beginning of the year. 

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I picked a 1-6 pt win for Indy. I think it will be one of those games that is back and forth in the 2H. 

NE really hasn't gotten a lot of credit or hype this year on either side of the ball, but folks are starting to notice finally. 

I hope we smack them good. We could really make a statement beating the #1 AFC team next week, and the #1 NFC team the week after. Both NE and AZ were not predicted to where they are now at the beginning of the year. 

With all the talk this year about parity who would have thunk that the Patriots and Cardinals would be the top dogs. It’s literally wide open this year. Speaks to Bills brilliance to reinvent himself after folks already considered them dead (raises hand slowly…) To your point I

hope we do smack them down and Arizona back to back. I want to get over this hump and make some noise. 

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Just now, adubb84 said:

With all the talk this year about parity who would have thunk that the Patriots and Cardinals would be the top dogs. It’s literally wide open this year. Speaks to Bills brilliance to reinvent himself after folks already considered them dead (raises hand slowly…) To your point I

hope we do smack them down and Arizona back to back. I want to get over this hump and make some noise. 

I just feel like we've been "on the edge" all year of being good lol... 

Now that most injuries are behind us, and the guys have had time to develop chemistry, we don't have a lot of excuses left.... 

And we have a bye to rest. Need to step up.

 

BB has done a brilliant job this year. The way he's handled the QB situation, and the way he didn't miss a beat after Gilmore's exodus, is simply masterful. I said before the draft that MJ would be good if he ended up with BB, and not so good most other places. Not saying he's going to be elite, but you really can't ask for much more. 

 

I'm just so tired of both Brady and BB. I have all the respect in the world for both, but I'm tired of losing to them. 

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22 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I just feel like we've been "on the edge" all year of being good lol... 

Now that most injuries are behind us, and the guys have had time to develop chemistry, we don't have a lot of excuses left.... 

^ This, this, and more this. We’ve been RIGHT there all year. Im pumped for these next 2 games. Either we got IT or we don’t. I’m here for all of it. 
 

I think we got this. 

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11 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

I think just like the Bucs game they will make taking away the run their number one goal and Frank will quickly abandon it. Leading to turnovers by Wentz and a close loss. Hopefully im wrong but BB has had the Colts number forever it seems also Frank and this squad just can't finish off good teams.

 

Maybe this is the game everything changes and we finally beat a top tier team and roll into the playoffs but my above prediction is my honest thoughts. 

 

I'm guessing Buffalo isnt top tier to you

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1. I have Colts 1-6. I can see a 24-20 win. I think we will give up several short passes by Mac, will bend a lot but not break though.

 

2. I think JT will go over 100 and we will control clock because of it. So I answered yes. I can see 22 carries for 105 yards. If we can control clock we hold them to around 20 points.

 

3. I see Wentz at around 225 yards so answered no, he will have an above average game but nothing that stands out. Probably like a typical Tannehill type of game.

 

4. I think Wentz will throw 1 INT but it won't be that costly. Pats have a very good if not great D, so I can see that.

 

5. I said 2 sacks

 

6. I have the turnover battle even, I think we pick Mac once and they pick Wentz off once. I think both coaches will emphasize heavily no fumbles, hang onto the ball.

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

 

As of now I will roll with GB and Chiefs but the Bucs and Pats could make it. Pats have beat up on a lot of bad teams, lets see how they do us against us here at LOS. Outside of winning at Buffalo, they haven't beat anyone. We also beat Buffalo at Buffalo by 26 lol. I am starting to wonder if Buffalo is even good? I think it will come down Bucs at GB again in the NFC Title Game if both teams stay healthy. I see GB winning this time. Rodgers wants that 2nd ring to join the Elite 2 SB wins or more club.

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20 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

As of now I will roll with GB and Chiefs but the Bucs and Pats could make it. Pats have beat up on a lot of bad teams, lets see how they do us against us here at LOS. Outside of winning at Buffalo, they haven't beat anyone. We also beat Buffalo at Buffalo by 26 lol. I am starting to wonder if Buffalo is even good? I think it will come down Bucs at GB again in the NFC Title Game if both teams stay healthy. I see GB winning this time. Rodgers wants that 2nd ring to join the Elite 2 SB wins or more club.

 

I would go with Cardinals vs Chiefs/Patriots this year. Just a hunch.

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Until we actually win a game against a good team on even terms I’m betting against the Colts. 
 

I think the Pats are better than they get credit for and the hooded one has had our number for as long as I can remember. 
 

The Bills game was our biggest win of the season, but the weather really made it our game to lose. Surprising we won as big as we did, not surprising we won. 

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10 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

Patriots will win 10+.  The Colts will find out why the Patriots have the #1 defense in the league.

 

Patriots have two weeks to prep .  BB has what, a 85% winning percentage for the game after a bye?

We also have 2 weeks to prepare, no way the Pats will win by 10. I will take that bet, give me 10 and lets bet lmao.  We have lost 1 game by 10 or more this year and that was opening day 28-16 to Seattle when we are out of sync and Wilson was Wilson. No team has blown us out all year. This isn't BB and Tom. This is BB and Mac. Colts will win book it. Pats are due for a loss and have beat up on bad teams. You can't even use the Titans win as a good win because Henry and both their #1 and #2 WR's out. That was my lock pick of the week when those 2 teams played. I had Pats blowing them out and I was right. When we lost to them they were 100% healthy and they got lucky in the 2nd game, we gave it away.  

 

If this was BB and Tom I would pick the Pats of course.

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9 minutes ago, NFLUp said:

Patriots will win 10+.  The Colts will find out why the Patriots have the #1 defense in the league.

 

Patriots have two weeks to prep .  BB has what, a 85% winning percentage for the game after a bye?

They have the number 1 defense because there schedule has been cupcake . 

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Just now, B~Town said:

They have the number 1 defense because there schedule has been cupcake . 

Exactly, people like to talk about our schedule being cupcake year in and year out, their's has been putrid. They even played the Titans who didn't have Henry and were without both WR's. The Buffalo win was a good win but we blew them out.

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12 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

I think just like the Bucs game they will make taking away the run their number one goal and Frank will quickly abandon it. Leading to turnovers by Wentz and a close loss. Hopefully im wrong but BB has had the Colts number forever it seems also Frank and this squad just can't finish off good teams.

 

Maybe this is the game everything changes and we finally beat a top tier team and roll into the playoffs but my above prediction is my honest thoughts. 

 

 TB had two immovable objects at DT with two superb LB's to stuff the run.

I ASSUME BB is still using the zone blitz and as usual has the speed and intelligent players totally prepared to play it. They have typically played screens and plays in the flats very well out of it.
 That makes lots of quick plays, especially over the middle, paramount to moving the ball. Wentz will have to have his best game yet throwing it and that means vastly improving his accuracy and timing to others than Pitt and Jack.

 Taylor will get stuffed a lot, but i believe we have the HORSES to keep attacking them with the run. And Frank will keep hammering them.
 We are getting more consistent pressure and Flus seemed to have moved his back 7 up a little tighter because of that. Makes for more contested intermediary passes, and his D HAS SURELY lacked that. lol

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56 minutes ago, rock8591 said:

Need more Dayo at DE for this game to matchup against Trenton Brown.

 

 They will definitely be schemeing heavy to take advantage of Muhammad.

Dayo is coming along slowly IMO, but preparing for and playing against a BB Team is a very valuable learning experience. McDaniels is superb at setting up and exploiting the inexperienced.

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5 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 TB had two immovable objects at DT with two superb LB's to stuff the run.

I ASSUME BB is still using the zone blitz and as usual has the speed and intelligent players totally prepared to play it. They have typically played screens and plays in the flats very well out of it.
 That makes lots of quick plays, especially over the middle, paramount to moving the ball. Wentz will have to have his best game yet throwing it and that means vastly improving his accuracy and timing to others than Pitt and Jack.

 Taylor will get stuffed a lot, but i believe we have the HORSES to keep attacking them with the run. And Frank will keep hammering them.
 We are getting more consistent pressure and Flus seemed to have moved his back 7 up a little tighter because of that. Makes for more contested intermediary passes, and his D HAS SURELY lacked that. lol

I think we win 24-20, it will be tough game. I give us a 55% to win to their 45%. Close. 

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9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we win 24-20, it will be tough game. I give us a 55% to win to their 45%. Close. 

 

 Well, i will go with 17-16. 
  And it is nice to be intrigued wondering if we hit a deep one and who to.

 Gosh i wish we had Campbell to pressure them with! 
  On Pittman,  On Dulin,  On the Ghost, one more time.

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2 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Well, i will go with 17-16. 
  And it is nice to be intrigued wondering if we hit a deep one and who to.

 Gosh i wish we had Campbell to pressure them with! 
  On Pittman,  On Dulin,  On the Ghost, one more time.

Sounds like you have it more like 50/50. This should be a great game because both teams are playing for a lot + the rivalry we have had with them for years. They were actually a rivalry back in the 80's. Many people don't know that, especially people under 40 years old. In 1987 we battled them for the division Title, it was the AFC East then. We won the AFC East in 1987 because of Dickerson. Peyton was 5-1 vs them from 2005-2009 + a Championship Game win so they haven't owned us in reality. Luck could never beat them but still bad blood between the 2 because of deflategate in 2014 for the AFC Title (2 best teams in 2014). Lets see what Wentz and our team has now vs BB. I feel good about our chances because Brady is out of the equation. BB is still arguably the GOAT of coaching but he doesn't throw the ball.

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Just now, DEFENSE said:

we dont have the pass rush or elite receivers to win this game, pats will take away pittman and taylor

I discussed this yesterday with a few people in here. That will open up Hines to have a big day if that happens. Hines is a nice weapon to have. Don't be surprised if TY has 3 or 4 critical catches either, he is 100%. 

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