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2020 Regular Season Win Rates - you might be surprised...


EastStreet

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ESPN Analytics grades every OL and DL player, and team on win rates. Here's the final 2020 regular season results.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

 

Colts in the Top 10

Houston - #6 in DE/OLB Pass Rush Win Rate (25%)

Nelson - #3 in G Pass Block Win Rate (95%)

Nelson - #1 in G Run Block Win Rate (79%)

 

Team Ratings 

Team Pass Rush Win Rate - #15 (42% - not bad at all for blitzing at a near league low %)

Team Run Stop Win Rate - #7 (31%)

Team Pass Block Win Rate - #12 (60%)

Team Run Block Win Rate - #8 (72%)

 

Notably absent from the top 10s....

Kelly - #1 highest paid C

Castonzo - #5 highest paid LT

Buckner - #2 highest paid iDL

 

 

Houston is the 29th highest paid DE/Edge.... For those critical of his age, landing at #6, and being paid 29th, is a HUGE value. Folks that want to move on, might want to rethink... Probably the best bang for the buck we have in the non-rook-contract space along with Rhodes.

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Just to add, the Bills....

 

Hughes - #2 in DE pass rush win rate

Jefferson - #9 in DT pass rush win rate

 

Morse - #2 in C pass block win rate

 

Bills Team

#2 in team pass block win rate (yet are only 15th in sacks and 22nd in pressure %)

#23 in run stop win rate

#4 in pass block win rate

#29 in run block win rate

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Kelly not top 10 is surprising.... 

 

#15 in team pass rush win rate with so little blitzing isn't bad. But curious where we could be if we blitz a little more. Especially with Leonard or some CB blitzes. 

 

Buckner not in and Houston could be a result of double teaming Buckner most of the time.:scratch: I would like to see numbers of how many times he has to face two OLiners. 

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7 hours ago, ColtsGermany said:

Kelly not top 10 is surprising.... 

 

#15 in team pass rush win rate with so little blitzing isn't bad. But curious where we could be if we blitz a little more. Especially with Leonard or some CB blitzes. 

 

Buckner not in and Houston could be a result of double teaming Buckner most of the time.:scratch: I would like to see numbers of how many times he has to face two OLiners. 

Houston being in really shouldn't surprise anyone given his history of production. IIRC he just missed out on the top 10 last year.

 

Also, keep in mind that Autry finished last season as #8 in DT pass rush win rate. I'm sure Buckner is getting more doubles, but still, the overall team ranking in 2019 for pass rush win rate was #15 (no change to 2020). Very surprising to me.

 

And while some think Nelson is having a down year, he improved over his #7 pass block win rate to #3 this year.

 

Kelly was #10 last year in pass block win rate. Pretty disappointing he's not in the top 5 after getting that contract. 

 

Colts were #3 in pass block win rate, so pretty big step back to #12 in 2020. Just more evidence that leads me to believe that Strausser has tweaked the OL scheme... Either that, or the team simply performed better with Guge.

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21 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Houston being in really shouldn't surprise anyone given his history of production. IIRC he just missed out on the top 10 last year.

 

Also, keep in mind that Autry finished last season as #8 in DT pass rush win rate. I'm sure Buckner is getting more doubles, but still, the overall team ranking in 2019 for pass rush win rate was #15 (no change to 2020). Very surprising to me.

 

And while some think Nelson is having a down year, he improved over his #7 pass block win rate to #3 this year.

 

Kelly was #10 last year in pass block win rate. Pretty disappointing he's not in the top 5 after getting that contract. 

 

Colts were #3 in pass block win rate, so pretty big step back to #12 in 2020. Just more evidence that leads me to believe that Strausser has tweaked the OL scheme... Either that, or the team simply performed better with Guge.


#3 in 2019? Guge was fired in January of 2019. Perhaps they performed better with Andrew Luck under center in ‘18 versus with Guge as a coach. 

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22 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

#3 in 2019? Guge was fired in January of 2019. Perhaps they performed better with Andrew Luck under center in ‘18 versus with Guge as a coach. 

You don't lose nastiness overnight (when a coach change is made). You lose nastiness over time as the softness creeps in.

 

Guge is known for being a hardxxx and instilling nastiness. Same as Qs coach at ND..... It's one reason he's no longer here.

 

If you watch the OL this year, pretty clear to most that the nasty has declined.

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Some Frank Reich doubters (not me) would say the drop off in pass blocking wins comes from more predictable play calling and defenses stacking the box vs us:hide: 

But I think it's measured only in 1 on 1s?

But I didn't understand the firing of Guge anyway.... Our Oline play was incredible back then. 

Never change a winning team I would say.:scratch:

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2 minutes ago, ColtsGermany said:

Some Frank Reich doubters (not me) would say the drop off in pass blocking wins comes from more predictable play calling and defenses stacking the box vs us:hide: 

But I think it's measured only in 1 on 1s?

But I didn't understand the firing of Guge anyway.... Our Oline play was incredible back then. 

Never change a winning team I would say.:scratch:

We don't get a lot of stacked boxes.

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In b4 the obligatory "I can't believe we let Jerry Hughes walk" post.

 

I've always been a fan of Houston, even back in his Chiefs days, partly because he's one of those guys who will perpetually look like he's in his 40's whether he's actually 20 or 70. Considering what we pay him, I'd take what he gives us. I was amazed actually, outside his one year, he's never put up 'huge' sack numbers.  

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You don't lose nastiness overnight (when a coach change is made). You lose nastiness over time as the softness creeps in.

 

Guge is known for being a hardxxx and instilling nastiness. Same as Qs coach at ND..... It's one reason he's no longer here.

 

If you watch the OL this year, pretty clear to most that the nasty has declined.


I don’t buy the nastiness. Big Q has not lost his nastiness nor has the offensive line. I just watched the o-line and a rookie runningback torch a defense for 250 plus yards on the ground. We’ll see what kind of nastiness they bring Tomorrow, and I have a feeling they will be anything but soft. 

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3 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


I don’t buy the nastiness. Big Q has not lost his nastiness nor has the offensive line. I just watched the o-line and a rookie runningback torch a defense for 250 plus yards on the ground. We’ll see what kind of nastiness they bring Tomorrow, and I have a feeling they will be anything but soft. 


O-line ranked #7 from PFF and they said even that was due to key injuries (final 4 games for Castonzo and 2 games from Smith). I haven’t seen any downturn in nasty from this team as a whole compared to 2018. Quite honestly, this team is far better and nastier as a whole. O-line and D-line set the tone for this team, and it was a successful regular season, IMO. 6 all-pros tied for the most on a team. Guge was a cancer and they cut him out quickly. Who is to say this offensive line wouldn’t have regressed majorly under his lack of leadership? 

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1 minute ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


I don’t buy the nastiness. Big Q has not lost his nastiness nor has the offensive line. I just watched the o-line and a rookie runningback torch a defense for 250 plus yards on the ground. We’ll see what kind of nastiness they bring Tomorrow, and I have a feeling they will be anything but soft. 

Not sure Q will ever lose his nastiness, but our drops in stats, grades, etc can't be shrugged off. Rivers time to throw is better than Luck's and JB's, so their job has gotten easier. The only change really has been the coach.

 

You do realize Jax is one of the worst run Ds in the league, right? Henry put up 200+ just a few weeks ago against them too.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Not sure Q will ever lose his nastiness, but our drops in stats, grades, etc can't be shrugged off. Rivers time to throw is better than Luck's and JB's, so their job has gotten easier. The only change really has been the coach.

 

You do realize Jax is one of the worst run Ds in the league, right? Henry put up 200+ just a few weeks ago against them too.


https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/news/decoding-whats-behind-the-giants-offensive-lines-woes

 

checking in on Guge... eh. Not great huh? Where is this magically Giants nastiness that he brings? 
 

 

they changed the blocking scheme that year too. And Andrew Luck (like Peyton) makes everyone better. 

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3 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


O-line ranked #7 from PFF and they said even that was due to key injuries (final 4 games for Castonzo and 2 games from Smith). I haven’t seen any downturn in nasty from this team as a whole compared to 2018. Quite honestly, this team is far better and nastier as a whole. O-line and D-line set the tone for this team, and it was a successful regular season, IMO. 6 all-pros tied for the most on a team. Guge was a cancer and they cut him out quickly. Who is to say this offensive line wouldn’t have regressed majorly under his lack of leadership? 

Individual PFFs have been down since early in the year, not just the last 4 games. I've posted PFF grades each quarter if you're interested. 

 

We played the league's weakest schedule. Regressing under those conditions, well, that's not good.

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Just now, ColtStrong2013 said:


https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/news/decoding-wh

3 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/news/decoding-whats-behind-the-giants-offensive-lines-woes

 

checking in on Guge... eh. Not great huh? Where is this magically Giants nastiness that he brings? 

ats-behind-the-giants-offensive-lines-woes

 

checking in on Guge... eh. Not great huh? Where is this magically Giants nastiness that he brings? 

lol... 

 

guess you didn't know that they just hired him at the end of November..... to fix what was the worst OL in the league....... 

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31 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Individual PFFs have been down since early in the year, not just the last 4 games. I've posted PFF grades each quarter if you're interested. 

 

We played the league's weakest schedule. Regressing under those conditions, well, that's not good.


Still a top offensive line in the league. I will always hold the belief that Andrew Luck made a bigger impact on the success (regardless of how much longer he held the ball than Philip Rivers-teams respected the hell out of Luck’s ability to push the ball downfield) than Guge. Guaranteed. 

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Houston being in really shouldn't surprise anyone given his history of production. IIRC he just missed out on the top 10 last year.

 

Also, keep in mind that Autry finished last season as #8 in DT pass rush win rate. I'm sure Buckner is getting more doubles, but still, the overall team ranking in 2019 for pass rush win rate was #15 (no change to 2020). Very surprising to me.

 

And while some think Nelson is having a down year, he improved over his #7 pass block win rate to #3 this year.

 

Kelly was #10 last year in pass block win rate. Pretty disappointing he's not in the top 5 after getting that contract. 

 

Colts were #3 in pass block win rate, so pretty big step back to #12 in 2020. Just more evidence that leads me to believe that Strausser has tweaked the OL scheme... Either that, or the team simply performed better with Guge.

AC has been injured and out alot  probably also has a lot to do with it.  Also, Smith was out that one game.  

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15 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


Still a top offensive line in the league. I will always hold the belief that Andrew Luck made a bigger impact on the success (regardless of how much longer he held the ball than Philip Rivers-teams respected the hell out of Luck’s ability to push the ball downfield) than Guge. Guaranteed. 

Facts don't support your Luck-love hypothesis. 

 

Guge is well known for instilling nasty. It's accepted fact if you know his history. He's a difficult/odd personality, but there's a reason teams keep hiring him when their OLs are in trouble.

13 minutes ago, Nickster said:

AC has been injured and out alot  probably also has a lot to do with it.  Also, Smith was out that one game.  

PFF has been down all year.

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Houston being in really shouldn't surprise anyone given his history of production. IIRC he just missed out on the top 10 last year.

 

Also, keep in mind that Autry finished last season as #8 in DT pass rush win rate. I'm sure Buckner is getting more doubles, but still, the overall team ranking in 2019 for pass rush win rate was #15 (no change to 2020). Very surprising to me.

 

And while some think Nelson is having a down year, he improved over his #7 pass block win rate to #3 this year.

 

Kelly was #10 last year in pass block win rate. Pretty disappointing he's not in the top 5 after getting that contract. 

 

Colts were #3 in pass block win rate, so pretty big step back to #12 in 2020. Just more evidence that leads me to believe that Strausser has tweaked the OL scheme... Either that, or the team simply performed better with Guge.

I'm assuming these stats for the entire year.  I wonder what the numbers look like over November and December (regarding the o-line).  It seems like our Offense Line has seemed to gel over that time, and with no practice/TC to begin the year, maybe that had an effect of the new O-Line coach's style? <shrug>

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You don't lose nastiness overnight (when a coach change is made). You lose nastiness over time as the softness creeps in.

 

Guge is known for being a hardxxx and instilling nastiness. Same as Qs coach at ND..... It's one reason he's no longer here.

 

If you watch the OL this year, pretty clear to most that the nasty has declined.

Just a question, what makes yo think the nastiness has declined?  Are O-Line men not finishing plays?  Just curious.  I haven't really paid attention myself.

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Where did Buckner rank on the pass rush rankings?  Way outside of the top 10?  Also, I think our level of nasty in the offensive line has gone down because we didn’t have a normal training camp & preseason for them to get in sync with Taylor & Rivers. Another factor on top of the lack of training camp with Rivers is his tendency to replace the running game with the short passing game.  
 

The very first game of the season Rivers throws it twice as many times as we run it in a game that we lead or were tied in up until 6 minutes to go in the game.  Why???  That set a certain tone & identity for most of this season. We were gonna be more of a pass blocking team under Rivers.  
 

More runs out of the gun.  More audibles out of runs.  More carries given to less talented backs. Imo those things all factored into our OLine’s nastiness and run blocking taking a step back this year.  As boring as Jacoby was last year, his commitment (maybe too much? Maybe not.) to the running game helped them create a more mauling road grating identity. 
 

I think we can use more of Rivers being more committed to pounding the rock. I’m sure if we checked the stats, we’ll see that Luck probably threw the ball even more than Rivers did this season. But the key difference for me is that Luck didn’t have Taylor.  Give Luck Taylor & this Oline and I don’t think he would have any problem with pounding the rock most if not every game.  Rest that shoulder most Sundays. 
 

In fact if there’s anything that could bring Luck back (besides him being healthy & having the desire to play again of course), it would be Taylor and this offensive line.  We know that probably isn’t happening but Taylor looks like a QB’s dream backfield mate.  A Luck Taylor backfield...   :mindblow:    What a beautiful dream for a Colts fan. 

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2 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

In b4 the obligatory "I can't believe we let Jerry Hughes walk" post.

 

I've always been a fan of Houston, even back in his Chiefs days, partly because he's one of those guys who will perpetually look like he's in his 40's whether he's actually 20 or 70. Considering what we pay him, I'd take what he gives us. I was amazed actually, outside his one year, he's never put up 'huge' sack numbers.  

I always said that about him. I too have been a fan of his since he was drafted. I remember thinking thats a grown man and he is how old?! Before we got him I always thought of him as another Robert Mathis. I am surprised by his individual rank this year, that said I was never in the bunch that wanted him gone. I feel our scheme in general allows a qb to find an open guy before pressure gets there.

 

I agree with several posters here, one of the main ones @EastStreetabout the "soft zone" scheme at times. Mix in some press, rotation, and man with zone concepts. On occasion we do with success but dumbfoundingly switch back to cover 2 with no press, rush 4... no stunts or doubles. A mind numbing basic defense that gets shredded.

 

Oline is finally picking things up. Wasn't it against the bills a year or two ago that we dominated running the ball against. Big Q starting the run the d@mn ball slogan. I say JT gets 300 yds from scrimmage if we finally have our swagger back up front.

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4 hours ago, ColtsGermany said:

Some Frank Reich doubters (not me) would say the drop off in pass blocking wins comes from more predictable play calling and defenses stacking the box vs us:hide: 

But I think it's measured only in 1 on 1s?

But I didn't understand the firing of Guge anyway.... Our Oline play was incredible back then. 

Never change a winning team I would say.:scratch:

He was disrespectful to the  players and  shamed them for not playing  hurt

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1 hour ago, Smoke317 said:

The very first game of the season Rivers throws it twice as many times as we run it in a game that we lead or were tied in up until 6 minutes to go in the game.  Why???

to me it felt like they threw out the game plan when Marlon got hurt, and we ended up with a pretty bad coaching performance 

 

46 passes was insane considering their weak run defense and its not like we were playing from behind.

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Facts don't support your Luck-love hypothesis. 

 

Guge is well known for instilling nasty. It's accepted fact if you know his history. He's a difficult/odd personality, but there's a reason teams keep hiring him when their OLs are in trouble.

PFF has been down all year.


yeah his giants o-line have been nasty all year... as in complete trash. 
 

Andrew Luck made plays when the o-lines collapsed and anyone that watched him knows that as a fact. He could throw a dime 50 yard downfield with a collapsed pocket. So yes, I think it’s completely reasonable to think that this offensive line with him under center performed better, versus with Jacoby Brisset or an old Philip Rivers without a lot of respect on the ability to push the ball downfield. 

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3 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

Just a question, what makes yo think the nastiness has declined?  Are O-Line men not finishing plays?  Just curious.  I haven't really paid attention myself.


They haven’t. They just aren’t as statistically as successful as they were with Andrew Luck under center, so instead of using that, they blame firing a cancer to the team in the offensive line coach, as if he were the one making the plays on the field. Two AP all-pros on this offensive line this season. No nastiness lost. At all. 

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6 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

I'm assuming these stats for the entire year.  I wonder what the numbers look like over November and December (regarding the o-line).  It seems like our Offense Line has seemed to gel over that time, and with no practice/TC to begin the year, maybe that had an effect of the new O-Line coach's style? <shrug>

Yes, entire year. I've posted win rates for Houston throughout the year. He's been in and out all year, but mostly in. 

Our OLC coached all last year, and the guys played 100% together last year... So there's really no gelling required. 

That is, unless he's tweaked blocking scheme, which I suspect. IMO, it's that, but mostly the lack of nasty. Q will always be Nasty though.

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7 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

Just a question, what makes yo think the nastiness has declined?  Are O-Line men not finishing plays?  Just curious.  I haven't really paid attention myself.

That's is part of it. Q is still nasty IMO, but do you recall seeing as many pancakes this year? I also think we've simply decreased things like power man sets (using more zone blocking) and pulls. All in all, just less mean, power, and driving.

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3 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


yeah his giants o-line have been nasty all year... as in complete trash. 
 

Andrew Luck made plays when the o-lines collapsed and anyone that watched him knows that as a fact. He could throw a dime 50 yard downfield with a collapsed pocket. So yes, I think it’s completely reasonable to think that this offensive line with him under center performed better, versus with Jacoby Brisset or an old Philip Rivers without a lot of respect on the ability to push the ball downfield. 

Dude, the Giants JUST HIRED HIM at the end of November 2020. So he's had the OL for like 6 weeks lol.....

 

The OL ranked best with JB. That's just statistically factual. They played well in 2018 after week 5ish once Guge found the rotation he wanted. Coincidentally, passing over a guy to find his starting 5 was in part what got him let go from the Colts.

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, the Giants JUST HIRED HIM at the end of November 2020. So he's had the OL for like 6 weeks lol.....

 

The OL ranked best with JB. That's just statistically factual. They played well in 2018 after week 5ish once Guge found the rotation he wanted. Coincidentally, passing over a guy to find his starting 5 was in part what got him let go from the Colts.


I don’t care. I was using it to make a point. A coach doesn’t magically make a unit talented. 

 

passing over Good I assume is what you are referring to. It is what got him fired and rightfully so. He’s a trash human. No place for him in this organization and thank God Ballard/Frank quickly decided he was a cancer. 

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9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, the Giants JUST HIRED HIM at the end of November 2020. So he's had the OL for like 6 weeks lol.....

 

The OL ranked best with JB. That's just statistically factual. They played well in 2018 after week 5ish once Guge found the rotation he wanted. Coincidentally, passing over a guy to find his starting 5 was in part what got him let go from the Colts.

Didn’t strauser change the blocking Scheme to a more read and react than fire out, if that makes sense.  I read something about that a while ago.  
 

guge did seem to do wonders here but he was hated by fans in New England.  He took over for scarneccia and their line fell apart.  He was fired and scarneccia was pulled out of retirement.  Their line seemed to play better thereafter 

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5 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Didn’t strauser change the blocking Scheme to a more read and react than fire out, if that makes sense.  I read something about that a while ago.  
 

guge did seem to do wonders here but he was hated by fans in New England.  He took over for scarneccia and their line fell apart.  He was fired and scarneccia was pulled out of retirement.  Their line seemed to play better thereafter 


Guge came in for one year when we completely overhauled the o-line, including drafting one of the highest graded guards to ever come out of college who is now a 3 time First team all-pro... and somehow Guge is given credit to developing him into that. It’s astounding. He’s really not done jack anywhere else but is credited with making this a top 5 o-line. Yeah. Right. 

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4 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


I don’t care. I was using it to make a point. A coach doesn’t magically make a unit talented. 

 

passing over Good I assume is what you are referring to. It is what got him fired and rightfully so. He’s a trash human. No place for him in this organization and thank God Ballard/Frank quickly decided he was a cancer. 

I'd recommend making a point then that doesn't make you look uninformed. 

 

As far as passing over someone.... The rotation he put in place has been one of the most successful units of the last few years. It's a business, and it's pretty obvious the five he chose to go with deserved it.

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3 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

Didn’t strauser change the blocking Scheme to a more read and react than fire out, if that makes sense.  I read something about that a while ago.  

That's what I'm trying to confirm. If you can find the article, I'd love to read it. 

3 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

guge did seem to do wonders here but he was hated by fans in New England.  He took over for scarneccia and their line fell apart.  He was fired and scarneccia was pulled out of retirement.  Their line seemed to play better thereafter 

Can't remember the exact story, but Scarnecchia really never left the Pats, and he never like Guge coming in in 2014. He was working with the OL even when Guge was there which created some issues. Also, the biggest problem the Pats had on OL, was that Solder missed most of 2015 (and struggled all 2014). He was back and healthy in 2016 when Scarnecchia came back officially and was responsible for their rise/return. 

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

That's what I'm trying to confirm. If you can find the article, I'd love to read it. 

Can't remember the exact story, but Scarnecchia really never left the Pats, and he never like Guge coming in in 2014. He was working with the OL even when Guge was there which created some issues. Also, the biggest problem the Pats had on OL, was that Solder missed most of 2015 (and struggled all 2014). He was back and healthy in 2016 when Scarnecchia came back officially and was responsible for their rise/return. 

I know I read it but it was so long ago.  I see if I can find it after the game 

 

I didn’t realize scar remained. I live in MA and the local radio was not happy with guge but you have a good point about solder. 

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10 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I know I read it but it was so long ago.  I see if I can find it after the game 

 

I didn’t realize scar remained. I live in MA and the local radio was not happy with guge but you have a good point about solder. 

Keep in mind the Pats won the SB in 2014. And in 2015, the OL was ravaged by injuries (Solder wasn't the only casualty), and the Pats were still 12-4. Injuries caught up with them late that season, but they started the season 10-0.

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10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Keep in mind the Pats won the SB in 2014. And in 2015, the OL was ravaged by injuries (Solder wasn't the only casualty), and the Pats were still 12-4. Injuries caught up with them late that season, but they started the season 10-0.

I started looking for articles but found this tidbit for today:

 

With two hires in the books, Reich has only one spot on his staff left to fill. DeGuglielmo’s assistant, Bobby Johnson, left to become the offensive line coach in Buffalo. 
 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2019/01/29/indianapolis-colts-hire-chris-stausser-coach-line-jason-michael-tight-ends-dave-deguglielmo/2713260002/

 

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

lol, says the guy who blames someone that was just hired lol.

giphy.gif


Again, if he is to be credited with the success of an o-line that he worked with for less than one offseason (hired in January 2018- Nelson, Smith drafted in May) then he can be credited with a bad o-lines woes for two months... 

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