Colts QB, the present, and the future (Merge)

[Breeze]

I wonder what Eason’s draft stock would be for 2021 had he stayed in college.  First time in the same system for consecutive seasons, undeniable arm talent, and likely part of the media hype machine.  Would we be talking about trading up for him?

[Archer]

It’s very hard to find a great QB when you don’t have one.   I say we sign a nominal starter next year (and Rivers and Brissett are possibilities), draft one somewhere before Round 5, and develop that draftee and Eason to compete for the starting spot the next year (or possibly earlier if our starter falters)...

[lennymoore24]

I think it looking at future QB, I wish we would get off the fascination of the "next Mahomes".  Mahomes is the exception and he also plays for a coach where every QB he has ever had has played pretty good.  So hearing about Jordan Love and now Justin Fields just gets old.  A guy being mobile and big arm doesn't mean the next Mahomes.

 

So let's be constructive.  The Colts are probably going to have a pick somewhere between 17-26.  So they have no shot at Lawrence and he is probably the only sure thing QB.  Fields and Lance, I think, are overrated and will be drafted before our pick.  No other QB is worth a #1 in my opinion.  I would rather the Colts take a shot at another Jacob Eason type guy later in the draft, or talk Luck into returning.  But the idea that we are going to pick a QB #1 and we are good for the next 12 years isn't very likely.  Just look at the draft three years back.  Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Jackson.  Jackson is most successful because he as the best team around him.  The others, I believe, haven't lived up to their billing.  The most successful are the guys with the best supporting cast.  At best, if the Colts pick a QB #1, they get a Sam Darnold type QB.

 

I expect next year will likely be Rivers, Eason, and likely another prospect with a high side picked 2nd day.

[Four2itus]

1 hour ago, lennymoore24 said:

I think it looking at future QB, I wish we would get off the fascination of the "next Mahomes".  Mahomes is the exception and he also plays for a coach where every QB he has ever had has played pretty good.  So hearing about Jordan Love and now Justin Fields just gets old.  A guy being mobile and big arm doesn't mean the next Mahomes.

 

So let's be constructive.  The Colts are probably going to have a pick somewhere between 17-26.  So they have no shot at Lawrence and he is probably the only sure thing QB.  Fields and Lance, I think, are overrated and will be drafted before our pick.  No other QB is worth a #1 in my opinion.  I would rather the Colts take a shot at another Jacob Eason type guy later in the draft, or talk Luck into returning.  But the idea that we are going to pick a QB #1 and we are good for the next 12 years isn't very likely.

I don't often agree with your takes, but this is spot on. (except the bold...it was done the instant it happened. It is not and has not been an option since he walked)

[CanuckColt]

We probably get to stay in QB-hell for a long time....not bad enough to get a top draft pick and not good enough to contend.

I was hoping Chad Kelly would give us the QB play that he showed in college, but I guess he did something stupid and got cut from the team.

 

[danlhart87]

1 hour ago, CanuckColt said:

We probably get to stay in QB-hell for a long time....not bad enough to get a top draft pick and not good enough to contend.

I was hoping Chad Kelly would give us the QB play that he showed in college, but I guess he did something stupid and got cut from the team.

 

Jacob Eason could be the future. Only time will tell. 

[Defjamz26]

Here’s how I have laid it out.

 

Unrealistic options 

 

1. Trade up for one of the top 3 QBs- Besides the fact that our GM is self-admittedly a hoarder of draft picks, I generally think people seem to forget that in order for a trade to be done, the other team has to want to move off that pick. And the reasoning can’t just be “well they have a whole bunch of needs besides QB”. Doesn’t work like that. As someone else mentioned in this topic, did the Colts move off of Luck in 2012 because they had needs all over the place? Did the Bengals do that this year?

 

2. Wentz, Ryan, Stafford, etc...- So the NFL has a historic amount of terrible teams this year. So much so that it has people saying teams should trade their franchise QBs and go get a young one in the draft. Problem is their isn’t enough supply to meet the demand. There are 3 top tier QBs who are IMO better than last years trio, likely entering the 2021 draft (well Lance is confirmed). Currently there is one winless team, 6 one win teams, and 6 two win teams. That’s 13 teams that could be considered “bad”. Of those, only the Texans absolutely would not draft a QB. So not everyone can afford to tank for Trevor, or one of the big 3. That’s why these veteran QBs that everyone thinks are going to get traded/cut aren’t going anywhere. 
 

Realistic Options:

 

1. Trade for Darnold- Of the bad teams in the NFL, the Jets are probably the only ones who are almost guaranteed a top 3 pick. A new HC will be coming in and Lawrence (should they land the top pick as they are on schedule to do) is too tantalizing to pass up in a rebuild. Darnold I believe is very much available. The team is currently built to contend for years to come now, and Ballard seems to want a ready to go QB rather than a rookie who needs to develop, so this would make a ton of sense. The asking price might not even be too much either. 
 

2. Jacob Eason is the future- QBs do occasionally hit outside of the first two rounds, although it’s rare. Wilson, Dak, and of course Brady come to mind. But even Foles and Cousins have enjoyed great success at times. There’s a chance Eason could be the man, but (and I know a lot of people don’t want to hear this) odds are he’s probably not. Jalen Hurts was way more Raw and he went 2 rounds before Eason so clearly there are some things that teams see (Colts included) that could limit him.

 

3. Draft Zach Wilson or Jamie Newman- Idk where the evaluation for Wilson will ultimately lie, but he’s easily QB4 right now and you have to think Newman is somewhere in that range. But after the big three, these are pretty much the next best options IMO because I don’t see anything “special” in Kyle Trask. I actually get Trubisky vibes from him. Newman you might be able to get in the 2nd or 3rd. Wilson could be a mid-late one or the same range as Newman. Again, he’s literally having a Burrow type rise out of nowhere so there’s no real projections on his draft range yet. That favors us because Ballard doesn’t seem to want to spend big capital on the QB position in the draft anyways. The question will be do either of those guys offer more upside than Eason? Time will tell

 

 

My opinion? If I’m Ballard I want Darnold. I’d take Darnold over Eason or the QBs available in the draft. He’s been on an awful team and we know how that can make good players look below average. Look at Saquan, even without injuries. Robbie Anderson having a career year in Carolina. Darnold would have a way better supporting cast here and would flourish under Reich. I’m not going crazy on the trade either. If it happens before the deadline, I’d offer them our 1st but I want a swap of the 1st they got from Seattle and our 2nd. If it happens in the offseason when they’ve locked up the 1st pick, Im offering a 2nd and 2022 2nd/conditional 3rd.

 

And if something happens with the Colts where we end up with a pick between 13-16, the Jets gotta sweeten the deal on their side for me to even pick up the the phone.

[coltfaninnewyork]

I hope Eason is the guy 

[aaron11]

good chance phil will be back next year in my opinion

 

i dont think #1 gets traded this year, you dont do that with a player like Trevor Lawrence. that would be like trading Luck.

 

id be willing to trade up for Fields, no more than 2 firsts plus late picks 

[DougDew]

On 10/27/2020 at 1:58 PM, lennymoore24 said:

I think it looking at future QB, I wish we would get off the fascination of the "next Mahomes".  Mahomes is the exception and he also plays for a coach where every QB he has ever had has played pretty good.  So hearing about Jordan Love and now Justin Fields just gets old.  A guy being mobile and big arm doesn't mean the next Mahomes.

 

So let's be constructive.  The Colts are probably going to have a pick somewhere between 17-26.  So they have no shot at Lawrence and he is probably the only sure thing QB.  Fields and Lance, I think, are overrated and will be drafted before our pick.  No other QB is worth a #1 in my opinion.  I would rather the Colts take a shot at another Jacob Eason type guy later in the draft, or talk Luck into returning.  But the idea that we are going to pick a QB #1 and we are good for the next 12 years isn't very likely.  Just look at the draft three years back.  Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Jackson.  Jackson is most successful because he as the best team around him.  The others, I believe, haven't lived up to their billing.  The most successful are the guys with the best supporting cast.  At best, if the Colts pick a QB #1, they get a Sam Darnold type QB.

 

I expect next year will likely be Rivers, Eason, and likely another prospect with a high side picked 2nd day.

There are always QBs around that can produce enough with a strong team around them until such time as you hit on your QB.

 

Not that he's the guy I would want, but if you needed a replacement for Rivers who would not be a bad addition, look at the QB the Redskins are using.  Kyle Allen is not a franchise guy, and is not necessarily starting material, but he has had to sit behind Cam in Carolina and Haskins in DC despite outplaying both of them.  There are guys like that who don't get their fair shake or are simply picked on their entire careers because that helps to justify other moves that were made.  Yet when things go bad, they are asked to pull the team out of misery.    Case Keenum was like that too for a few good years.  Foles fits that mold, as does Fitzpatrick.  Not saying that I want any of them now, but QBs like that emerge from the ashes of other teams and they are good enough to buy time.

[Four2itus]

On 10/23/2020 at 2:00 PM, Four2itus said:

Love the input so far. Here is some mega research. I'll start with the Bills and let's dig into this...

 

Buffalo Bills since Doug Flutie 1998-2000: 

 

Drew Bledsoe

JP Losman

Kelly Holcomb

Trent Edwards

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Brian Brohm

EJ Manuel 

Thaddeus Lewis

Jeff Tuel

Kyle Orton

Matt Cassel

Tyrod Taylor

Nathan Peterman

Josh Allen

Derek Anderson

LeSean McCoy

Matt Barkley

 

 My first question, before I can do the percentage math, is how many of these QB's would you feel or have felt at the time were true possibilities at being a franchise QB. As a whole, they represent over 300 starts. 

 

All research from this site....  Here

 

Back to the intent of the thread...........no one answered this question....so I'll answer myself to the most honest of my abilities.

 

Of this list, the only QB's that I would consider franchise possibles, were.....

 

Bledsoe - 48 starts

Fitzpatrick - 53 starts

 

So, that means 101 starts by a franchise caliber QB in 20 years out of a total 304 starts. that is just shy of 33% of the time. 

 

[GoColts8818]

8 hours ago, coltfaninnewyork said:

I hope Eason is the guy 

Would sure make life a lot simpliar!

[blackcoffeeguy]

I'm so glad to find out that y'all released Chad Kelly. Now he will have a shot at being signed with a real team, one that actually wants to win.

[Smoke317]

I’d trade up to draft Fields. Kid’s the complete package. 

[Four2itus]

6 hours ago, blackcoffeeguy said:

I'm so glad to find out that y'all released Chad Kelly. Now he will have a shot at being signed with a real team, one that actually wants to win.

Give us a heads up when he gets signed. 

[AlanNC]

Do you think if we could get Trubiski, Frank could make him into a better QB than he has shown with the Bears.  He has the arm and speed to get away from the rush.  He has shown he can play well at times.

[Rally5]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:35 PM, Rally5 said:

I think there's a real chance we get Carson Wentz.  This is me doing zero research and shooting from the hip...

 

1. Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in Rd 2.

2. Reich knows Wentz, a big deal.

3. We're a ready to win now team.

4. Wentz is 27 with massive potential, his best year was with Frank as I recall.

5. It will cost a #1, I'd pay it for a 10 yr QB.

6. Drop the two we have and we have the cap space to sign him plus our own.

 

 It has potential.

 

October 24.  Peace out!