09/13 Colts at Jags Discussion: Stats, Match Up, and Poll

[EastStreet]

 

For those interested in stats, personnel adds and losses, and match up info.

If y'all like it, I'll try to do a weekly one of these for each game when I have time.

 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS

Line: IND -7.5

O/U: 45.5

 

Colts 2019 Rankings (and 2018 for O)

Power Rankings - #14 (current)

Total O - #25 (#7 in 2018)
Total Pts - #16 (#5 in 2018)
Pass O - #30 (#6 in 2018) *new QB
Note - Rivers was #6 in 2019, and #10 in 2018
Rush O - #7 (#20 in 2018)

Total D - #16
Total Pts - #18
Pass D - #23
Rush D - #7
--------------------------------------------------------

 

Jags 2019 Rankings

Power Rankings - #32
2019 record: 6-10 (-97 Point differential)

Offense
Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22 / Run: 28)
Total O - #20
Total Pts - #26
Pass O - #16
Rush O - #17
OL - #26

Defense
Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22 / Run: 31)
Total D - #24
Total Pts - #21
Pass D - #16
Rush D - #28

 

 

Personnel Changes

New Coaches: Jay Gruden, Offensive coordinator

 

Added: LB Joe Schobert (59.1 PFF), TE Tyler Eifert (65.7), CB Rashaan Melvin (55.4), DE Aaron Lynch, but he retired last month.

 

Lost: DE Calais Campbell (90.3), CB A.J. Bouye (58.4), QB Nick Foles (65.0)
**RB Fournette (64.0) waived this week
**DE Yannick Ngakoue (72.0) traded this week

 

Key Draft Picks: CB CJ Henderson, Florida (9th); EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU (20th); Round 2; WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado (42nd); DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (73rd); OT Ben Bartch, St. John’s (116th)

 

 

Match Up Comments:
Offense
Passing - I can see their passing O taking a big step forward if they are committed to Minshew from the start of the season. And IMO, they'll have too.   Gruden should help, but I wouldn't expect anything early. Chark will be the featured weapon after his breakout 1000 yard performance last year that netted him a PB. All I can say is our Ss better be ready to help. Conley and Westbrook weren't slouches either with 775 and 660 yards. Shenault is a wildcard, but could emerge later in the year for our second game. Eifert will also add a legit TE presence day one, and could be Minshew's best friend early if our pressure starts getting to him. And they did little to upgrade a bad OL, so we absolutely should get to him.

 

Rushing - Fournette is a big loss, and would have benefited from the balance with the assumed upgrade to the passing game. Instead, they will likely go RB by committee with Armstead as the lead back. He had a whole whopping 108 yards last year. Unless he is better than expected, expect things to turn into the Minshew show early and often. Getting rid of Fournette is even more reason to think the "lose for Lawrence" is in full motion.

 

Defense - Henderson and Chaisson are nice adds, but losing Campbell will hurt. Then to lose Ngakoue... Ouch. Chaisson better bring his lunch pale and scuba gear, because he's being tossed in the deep end. Bryan 3T is pretty good, but overall, the pass D should be ripe for exploitation early. Great game for Rivers to begin his horseshoe days. The run D was awful last year, but may be a bit improved. Regardless, Rivers should have his way, as should our RBs.

 

Prediction: Colts 38 / Jags 16
While I think Rivers will have a good game, we'll likely go run heavy once we get up, and that could be early. Hoping he picks on Henderson a bit to welcome the young man to the NFL. Our OL should do well in both phases. Mack should have a day, and Taylor could go off late. Without Fournette, I think Minshew will likely need to play hero ball. I can see them testing Rhodes early but my guess is that they will target Willis often. We'll see if our zone heavy pass D is what the doctor ordered for Rhodes. Could be Buchner's coming out party as a Colt. It could, and should, get ugly for Jax. We could absolutely hang 50 on these guys. And not saying we can ignore their run altogether, but for sure we'll have more focus on their passing game. Should be a big day for sacks and INTs. And we should win an opener for once lol.

 

[EastStreet]

Just a note. I normally would add injury info, but we all know the officially injury reports aren't out yet. Guessing early next week. 

 

Meanwhile, from ESPN.

 

Jags

WR/PR Dede Westbrook Questionable

WR Laviska Shenault Jr. Questionable

DE Josh Mauro Out 

DT Taven Bryan Questionable

SLB Quincy Williams Doubtful

 

These are unofficial from injuries the last two weeks. 

That's 2 of their top 4 WRs that could miss time, or play gimpy. If they are with Bryan (bone bruise), that would be a huge loss. Mauro is a depth DE that was assumed a #2 behind starter Allen. DE was already a thin position for them, so 2 of their top 8 guys is not good.

 

Colts

O - Only issues on the O side of the ball are Burton (likely out several weeks at least), Campbell and Doyle (both who just returned)

D - Still no idea on Turay and Day, but Moore seems to be on his way back.

[csmopar]

37 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Just a note. I normally would add injury info, but we all know the officially injury reports aren't out yet. Guessing early next week. 

 

Meanwhile, from ESPN.

 

Jags

WR/PR Dede Westbrook Questionable

WR Laviska Shenault Jr. Questionable

DE Josh Mauro Out 

DT Taven Bryan Questionable

SLB Quincy Williams Doubtful

 

These are unofficial from injuries the last two weeks. 

That's 2 of their top 4 WRs that could miss time, or play gimpy. If they are with Bryan (bone bruise), that would be a huge loss. Mauro is a depth DE that was assumed a #2 behind starter Allen. DE was already a thin position for them, so 2 of their top 8 guys is not good.

 

Colts

O - Only issues on the O side of the ball are Burton (likely out several weeks at least), Campbell and Doyle (both who just returned)

D - Still no idea on Turay and Day, but Moore seems to be on his way back.

Someone already started this 

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

I voted Colts by 7-10, Rivers 200-249 yards, and Mack.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I voted Colts by 7-10, Rivers 200-249 yards, and Mack.

Colts by 21 or more, Rivers 250-299 yards, and Mack.

 

This should be one of the easiest games of the year. I think the Jaguars have packed it in before the season has begun.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Colts by 21 or more, Rivers 250-299 yards, and Mack.

 

This should be one of the easiest games of the year. I think the Jaguars have packed it in before the season has begun.

I have no doubt we will win but not sure it will be a blowout. They always have a knack of playing us great for some reason no matter who they have  .

[2006Coltsbestever]

The line is 7.5 so I think we cover, I predict 27-17.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have no doubt we will win but not sure it will be a blowout. They always have a knack of playing us great for some reason no matter who they have  .

Luck and Brissett definitely played bad Vs them for some reason. With Rivers, a solid run game, a great O-Line, and a good defense, this should be a cakewalk. They traded Yannick, released Fournette, no longer have guys like Ramsey and Campbell. They are very weak right now for the pickings. I see a blowout! 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Luck and Brissett definitely played bad Vs them for some reason. With Rivers, a solid run game, a great O-Line, and a good defense, this should be a cakewalk. They traded Yannick, released Fournette, no longer have guys like Ramsey and Campbell. They are very weak right now for the pickings. I see a blowout! 

They are already trying for the lose for Lawrence strategy it seems. It could be a blowout, I hope so. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

We have a hell of a roster assuming Rivers is still even 80% of what he has been. We should win the division and at worse win at least a playoff game. Should be a fun season. Buckner is such a monster, he is going to free up guys like Houston on the D.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We have a hell of a roster assuming Rivers is still even 80% of what he has been. We should win the division and at worse win at least a playoff game. Should be a fun season. Buckner is such a monster, he is going to free up guys like Houston on the D.

I was actually thinking Buckner would free up guys like Leonard, Banogu, Turay (when he plays), and Tyquan Lewis. I think Houston will be largely unaffected. It'll be all our young guys that benefit more that will all have 1 on 1 coverage and will have a chance to break out and do something every game thanks to Buckner.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I was actually thinking Buckner would free up guys like Leonard, Banogu, Turay (when he plays), and Tyquan Lewis. I think Houston will be largely unaffected. It'll be all our young guys that benefit more that will all have 1 on 1 coverage and will have a chance to break out and do something every game thanks to Buckner.

Well Houston is possibly a HOFamer so your point makes sense. The younger players will definitely benefit from Buckner's play. Our O.Line may be the best in the league as well. Ballard reminds me of how Washington used to build from 1982-1991 with Gibbs. They dominated up front on D and O and won 3 SB's.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Well Houston is possibly a HOFamer so your point makes sense. The younger players will definitely benefit from Buckner's play. Our O.Line may be the best in the league as well. Ballard reminds me of how Washington used to build from 1982-1991 with Gibbs. They dominated up front on D and O and won 3 SB's.

Ballard's first draft in 2017 I give him a mulligan for. He didn't have most of his current scouts that year, and he was still figuring out what kind of philosophies he wanted to use as a rookie GM. Fast forward to 2018, he hired Ed Dodds as Assistant GM, Morocco Brown, Rex Hogan (who we had for two year in 2018 and 2019 before leaving to be Assistant GM for the Jets), and Brian Decker who is our military character guy among others. We had a great 2018 class, and guys like Turay and Tyquan are even breaking out now, so that class could have as many as 5-7 starters for us, including two all-pros. 

 

2019 is starting to show dividends as well with Rock looking like a solid no2 CB with potential to improve, Banogu and Okereke with solid rookie years, Parris learning the system, and Khari starting this year at SS. Unfortunately Marvel Tell opted out, but we'll gain an extra year on his contract. 2020 didn't do much for the lines, but it looks like it could be a solid class. If you count Buckner, it looks very solid with high-end potential.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Ballard's first draft in 2017 I give him a mulligan for. He didn't have most of his current scouts that year, and he was still figuring out what kind of philosophies he wanted to use as a rookie GM. Fast forward to 2018, he hired Ed Dodds as Assistant GM, Morocco Brown, Rex Hogan (who we had for two year in 2018 and 2019 before leaving to be Assistant GM for the Jets), and Brian Decker who is our military character guy among others. We had a great 2018 class, and guys like Turay and Tyquan are even breaking out now, so that class could have as many as 5-7 starters for us, including two all-pros. 

 

2019 is starting to show dividends as well with Rock looking like a solid no2 CB with potential to improve, Banogu and Okereke with solid rookie years, Parris learning the system, and Khari starting this year at SS. Unfortunately Marvel Tell opted out, but we'll gain an extra year on his contract. 2020 didn't do much for the lines, but it looks like it could be a solid class. If you count Buckner, it looks very solid with high-end potential.

Technically you have to count Buckner as a first round pick at #13, so that alone makes the draft solid. Taylor may be the next Eric Dickerson, if he is Ballard will be a king here in Indy 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Someone already started this 

 

 

The OPs are night and day. No poll either.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Colts by 21 or more, Rivers 250-299 yards, and Mack.

 

This should be one of the easiest games of the year. I think the Jaguars have packed it in before the season has begun.

Exactly what I picked. I wouldn't be surprised if Rivers has more than 300, but I think we get up early, and Reich dials things back to ground and pound. 

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have no doubt we will win but not sure it will be a blowout. They always have a knack of playing us great for some reason no matter who they have  .

I really think this year will be be different. Jax has so many problems. 

[NannyMcafee]

The jags usually hang tough. I just think Rivers is too good for them for some odd reason. 

 

I say Rivers has 300 yards before the 4th qtr. At that point, odds are Taylor becomes primary back. 

 

Anything can happen without camp and the nornal practice. Colts have the best depth in the NFL which bodes well with this lack of a camp, also along the lines of the same point, most of this team was here last year. 

 

The Colts will surprise people this year, and it will start with a blowout vs the Jags. 

 

Colts 38

Jags 10. 

 

Mack will have the most all purpose yards, but Taylor will come in late, possibly reaching 100 yards rushing. 

[Dogg63]

I think we're going to spank them for 30+ and I doubt they score more than 3-4 field goals. I'm betting Hines has a lot of return yards (assuming he's the punt returner) and receiving yards, probably around 110-120 combined.

Philip spreads the ball around, even more so, I bet, now that Trey Burton is hurt, so I don't think any single receiver will eclipse 100 receiving yards. I was going to pick 300+ but got conservative at the last second - I want to go back and change it to 300+ for Philip. 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Dogg63 said:

I think we're going to spank them for 30+ and I doubt they score more than 3-4 field goals. I'm betting Hines has a lot of return yards (assuming he's the punt returner) and receiving yards, probably around 110-120 combined.

Philip spreads the ball around, even more so, I bet, now that Trey Burton is hurt, so I don't think any single receiver will eclipse 100 receiving yards. I was going to pick 300+ but got conservative at the last second - I want to go back and change it to 300+ for Philip. 

I could see some long TDs by receivers, but I think you're right about no WR getting over 100 yards. Wouldn't be shocked to see TY or Campbell eclipse that though. I could see both, or even Hines, taking it to the house on a 50+. 

 

Overall, I just don't see Reich showing too much vs the #32 power ranked Jags.. lol.

[Bolts2Colts]

My choices were partially informed by Rivers’ career stats vs the Jags:

• 7-2
• 24 TD/5 INT
• 296 YD/G

And those Jags teams were not actively tanking.
 

Hopefully this game provides a comfortable way for the Colts to ease their way into the season.  If it were midseason, I’d worry they might look past them. But I expect the Colts to be focused, energetic, well-prepared and sharp, just as they’ve been in the scrimmages.
 

Their first game as a team, so exciting. 
 

 

[EastStreet]

Jags trade away yet another starter. This time, starting SS Ronnie Harrison. 2nd starting DB to be gone... 

 

Not that he was an all star or anything, but he was a third rounder, and their best option at SS. Now they'll likely be relying on Josh Jones, 

 

Just another reason why Rivers should have a strong showing his first game as a Colt. 

 

[Myles]

On 9/2/2020 at 7:12 PM, EastStreet said:

I could see some long TDs by receivers, but I think you're right about no WR getting over 100 yards. Wouldn't be shocked to see TY or Campbell eclipse that though. I could see both, or even Hines, taking it to the house on a 50+. 

 

Overall, I just don't see Reich showing too much vs the #32 power ranked Jags.. lol.

That scares me a bit.  Hopefully the Colts don't take the Jags game for granted.   They are an NFL team and still have good players.  

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

That scares me a bit.  Hopefully the Colts don't take the Jags game for granted.   They are an NFL team and still have good players.  

I doubt they overlook the the Jags, I just don't see them not being prepared for the 1st game given all the changes to the team.

 

And they've got a few good players, but not many lol.

[King Colt]

On 09/03 Vegas has the odds at Indy a 7.5 favorite and a 63% chance of winning this game.

[Myles]

10 minutes ago, King Colt said:

On 09/03 Vegas has the odds at Indy a 7.5 favorite and a 63% chance of winning this game.

Only 63%.   Wow, that seems low.  

[RollerColt]

20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I doubt they overlook the the Jags, I just don't see them not being prepared for the 1st game given all the changes to the team.

 

And they've got a few good players, but not many lol.

That is very true. We probably won't be opening up the playbook against them. I see this as a smashmouth game where we just use physical dominance from the lines and power through with our running backs. Leave the finesse stuff for later in the season. 

[chad72]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Only 63%.   Wow, that seems low.  

 

They are factoring in the piped in noise deflecting off the tarps!!!  

 

Oh wait, Covid saved the Jags from tarps!!! 

 

Too many holes on the Jags roster, it is shocking David Caldwell has not been fired. This was a roster that went to the 2017 AFCCG with Blake Bortles as QB. Then they draft Fournette and pass on the likes of Mahomes and Watson because they had Bortles?? Now both Bortles and Fournette are gone. Yikes!!

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, RollerColt said:

That is very true. We probably won't be opening up the playbook against them. I see this as a smashmouth game where we just use physical dominance from the lines and power through with our running backs. Leave the finesse stuff for later in the season. 

I think Rivers could play simple pitch and catch all day long vs the Jags without showing any finesse stuff. I think Rivers gets 250+. Our RBs should both do well. What will be interesting, is if the Jags unleash Minshew to play hero ball. The passing game is the only thing they really have.

[CR91]

I'm honestly expecting a blow out. I just can't see how the colts lose this game even if it's a division game.

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, CR91 said:

I'm honestly expecting a blow out. I just can't see how the colts lose this game even if it's a division game.

It would take a massive Covid outbreak, and Q playing QB.

[Dogg63]

Jags have protected 4 of their PS guys going into week 1.

 

 

[EastStreet]

Their RB Armstead is out (back on Covid/reserve).

 

They will be starting a UDFA rook lol...

 

And two of their top 4 WRs look to still be gimpy and questionable.

[MCurtis32]

Just be happy to win this game and not get all dinged up in the process. I live just south of j-ville. It is 97 degrees in the shade with 98 percent humidity. It has been this way for the last 90 days. Hell it is 87 right now and the sun set an hour ago.

It will be tough on the players. Everyone will get playing time.

[Dogg63]

 

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

 

Hate to EVER see a C and LT on the injury report. Glad it's at least LP.

 

Here's for the Jags. We already know their starting RB is out.

Safe to say that it's probably going to be a Minshew show.

 

[Boondoggle]

Jay Gruden is an excellent OC.  He'll make them resilient and better at sustaining drives than they should be.  But he just doesn't have the roster.

 

Time of possession in this one should be one sided along with the score.