When to take a QB in Draft

[csmopar]

When to take a QB? Sometime after the 2021 draft starts. The QBs in this year's draft SUCK!

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

People haven't followed Tannehill this season but he had an exceptional season. PFF has him as the highest ranked QB this season. And all of his advanced metrics are great. He's been very very efficient this year. He feasts in that offense getting playaction setup from the threat of the Henry run. 

Just goes to show how such metrics are simply a recap of history, and not a predictor of future results. Its nearly impossible to use them to make an informed decision.

 

He was traded for mid round picks, but was also drafted pick 8.

 

Would the true Ryan Tannehill please stand up.

[stitches]

20 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Just goes to show how such metrics are simply a recap of history, and not a predictor of future results. Its nearly impossible to use them to make an informed decision.

 

He was traded for mid round picks, but was also drafted pick 8.

 

Would the true Ryan Tannehill please stand up.

 

I think metrics are important to consider, but be put into context and interpreted with the appropriate measure and respect. It's important to know what exactly changed and why, to what extent the change is sustainable, etc. 

 

For example, for as good as he's played(and the metrics show it), it's probably not very wise to assume he will continue to play at this level going forward. Tannehill had some real nice seasons before he suffered his injury in Miami and analysts were actually expecting him to blow up any moment, but injuries, poor coaching and playcalling, poor OLine and weapons derailed his development. I also don't think this is a regular situation that's happening. IMO it's more of an outlier - for every Tannehill that figures it out with a new system and coaches at a new place there are 10 Geno Smiths or Blaine Gabberts that never do. 

[DougDew]

20 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I think metrics are important to consider, but be put into context and interpreted with the appropriate measure and respect. It's important to know what exactly changed and why, to what extent the change is sustainable, etc. 

 

For example, for as good as he's played(and the metrics show it), it's probably not very wise to assume he will continue to play at this level going forward. Tannehill had some real nice seasons before he suffered his injury in Miami and analysts were actually expecting him to blow up any moment, but injuries, poor coaching and playcalling, poor OLine and weapons derailed his development. I also don't think this is a regular situation that's happening. IMO it's more of an outlier - for every Tannehill that figures it out with a new system and coaches at a new place there are 10 Geno Smiths or Blaine Gabberts that never do. 

Its nice information for playing around with, but it really isn't all that helpful.  Its usefulness is overstated, IMO.   

 

Insurance companies and credit card companies can use historical behavior to predict future results, because the universe is so huge and the basic environment is similar for all of those data points.....tens of millions of people.

 

The NFL only has 32 teams with 53 players.  The universe is tiny.  And its unique.  How would Tannehill perform on another team?  IDK, how many other teams have both Mike Vrabel as HC and Derrick Henry as RB?  0.  

 

The metrics in MIA are useless for judging how he would perform in TN, and so on.  The tape needs to be analyzed to see the conditions that were prevalent during each of his plays during his MIA tenure, then determine if those conditions would be similar at TN or different, and different in a way that's more favorable.

 

I think these metrics are useful for predicting behavior within a season, where the environment is consistent, like rosters and coaching staffs.  Good for choosing fantasy football teams each week.  Not so good for a lot else, IMO.

[BleedBlu8792]

5 hours ago, csmopar said:

When to take a QB? Sometime after the 2021 draft starts. The QBs in this year's draft SUCK!

 

So who do you like for 2021, excluding Fields and Lawrence?

[csmopar]

2 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

So who do you like for 2021, excluding Fields and Lawrence?

Honestly haven’t looked. I just know this years class looks like the 2013 QB class to me

[FalseStart]

2021 draft... 

[aaron11]

if tua or love are there take them in the first round.  someone is going to give tua a chance, funny how a lot of people think he will go before our pick yet he isnt worth our pick... 

[runthepost]

I wouldn’t take Love in the first round, because at 13 we can get the playmaker at either receiver or on the Dline. I’ll be fine with Love in the second round or we can trade up to mid 20’s and draft love

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

34 minutes ago, runthepost said:

I wouldn’t take Love in the first round, because at 13 we can get the playmaker at either receiver or on the Dline. I’ll be fine with Love in the second round or we can trade up to mid 20’s and draft love

A QB is going to win you more games then a DT.  We can upgrade the Dline hopefully in FA.

[runthepost]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

A QB is going to win you more games then a DT.  We can upgrade the Dline hopefully in FA.

Jones won’t be there in FA Armstead will be but Ballard isn’t paying a free agent 20 plus. Carr will be available this offseason hopefully and we can make a move on that. I like Love but I can see a little bit of Mitch in him which scares me 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Jones won’t be there in FA Armstead will be but Ballard isn’t paying a free agent 20 plus. Carr will be available this offseason hopefully and we can make a move on that. I like Love but I can see a little bit of Mitch in him which scares me 

There are two positions Ballard will pay for. That is DT and DE. I think people misunderstand when they here him talk about FA. 

[Coffeedrinker]

Here is another stat:

 

No rookie QB has lead his team to the SB.

 

And Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco are the only QBs to win multiple playoff games as rookies

[MPStack]

18 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Here is another stat:

 

No rookie QB has lead his team to the SB.

 

And Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco are the only QBs to win multiple playoff games as rookies

Is this a case or an example not to possibly select a QB at 13?  
 

 

[Coffeedrinker]

58 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Is this a case or an example not to possibly select a QB at 13?  
 

 

Neither.  Just stating a fact.  If the Colts take a QB in the draft and start him, history would indicate the Colts will not be going to the SB in 2020.

 

If the Colts stay with JB, chances are they will not be going to the SB in 2020 (2021 to be precise)

 

If the Colts sign a free agent QB, chances are they will not be going to the SB in 2020 (2021 to be precise)

[aaron11]

On 1/12/2020 at 9:32 PM, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Bust might have been harsh but if he was great Miami wouldn’t have traded him to Tennessee. 

Miami got- 4th and 7th round picks 

Tennessee got- Ryan Tannehill, 6th round pick and Miami paid 5 million of his 7 million salary for 2019. 

 

Not exactly like they got a haul. They basically paid Tennessee to take him. 

 

they were tired of his injuries, RT missed more games than andrew luck did

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

On 1/12/2020 at 7:13 PM, Chloe6124 said:

If he doesn’t he should be fired.

Wait!   What?!?

 

Who should be fired?    And for what offense?  

[chad72]

18 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Here is another stat:

 

No rookie QB has lead his team to the SB.

 

And Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco are the only QBs to win multiple playoff games as rookies

 

Good point!!! We all know a strong running game and defense were big factors during their playoff runs, more than the QB play. 

 

When the QB play caught up and met the level of the defense for a perfect run of games, that is when the 2012 Flacco run happened.