Mock Off-season 1.0

[Caleb3502]

Still too early for a realistic mock, but classes are canceled today so this gives me something to do.  I will be using Spotrac for available free agents and for rookie salaries. I will use Overthecap for re-signings. I will run a few simulations through First Pick to see where players are typically available. I will include the Vinatieri & Glowinski contracts.   

 

Cap Space: $117,249,480

 

Colts Free Agents 

 

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

Najee Goode OLB

Mark Glowinski - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

Adam Vinatieri - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

Ryan Grant WR

Geneo Grissom DE

Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$8 M ($1.5 M Signing Bonus) 

Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

Mike Mitchell FS - 1 Year/2 M ($500K Signing Bonus, Fully Guaranteed)

Matt Slauson G  - I think he will end up retiring.  Maybe we bring him back as a coach.  

J'Marcus Webb OT

J. J. Wilcox SS

Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

 

Restricted FAs

67 Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

41 Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

28 Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

36 Corey Moore FS

80 Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

43 Ross Travis TE

 

Exclusive-Rights FAs

16 Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

46 Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

 

Money spent on Re-Signings: $35,033,591

Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $82,215,889

 

Free Agents

 

WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed) Tyrell Williams is someone I have wanted for awhile, especially with the Siranni/Reich connection. However, I think Humphries would have a larger impact on our offense. Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career. In addition, Tyrell Williams reportedly wants the opportunity to be a #1 WR, and I don't think he would become the main target on the Colts.  

 

DE Trey Flowers - 5 Years/$77 M ($40 M Guaranteed) Grady Jarrett is the player I want the most for the D-Line, but I don't see him making his way out of Atlanta. He's their top priority to re-sign and will franchise tag him if they have too, much like DeMarcus Lawrence, another player I don't see going anywhere.  I believe Flowers has the best chance to hit free agency. He will be a nice, young pass rusher to help improve our edge. 

 

OT Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M Adds depth to the offensive line. Smith had struggles in KC.  Even though it was one game, I would like to have another tackle for depth with Haeg being the only other one that can fill in there.   

 

OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$15 M  I'm not sure what type of salary he will fetch in free agency, but for what I know about him I think it is a fair offer.  Eberflus was his Linebackers coach in Dallas and adds an upgrade to the SAM in our defense. He'll be 26 when the season begins and I think he will help solidify our linebacking corp. 

 

Money spent this year for Free Agents: $33,900,000 

Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $48,315,889

 

NFL Draft 

 

Round 1: DT Christian Wilkins Clemson Would work great as a 3 Tech for the Colts D-Line. Would be a great addition for a D-Line that has veterans going into a contract year and nearing or already in their 30s. A very talented player that might not be there at 26, but we should highly consider him if he's on the board when we pick. 

Round 2: WR Kelvin Harmon NC State He's a tall WR at 6'3" with very good hands that can make plays downfield. He's not an elusive player and won't rack up YAC yards, but will be a big target for Luck. Inman is also 6'3", but is coming on to 30 years old, as is Hilton. With no certainty to how Deon Cain will produce or when we will see something from Fountain, Harmon would be a good addition for the future of the WR corp.

Round 2: DE Austin Bryant Clemson  Another piece to add to the EDGE.  Pass Rush was something that needed improving, and Bryant will add more QB pressure for the Colts. 8 Sacks in his senior season at Clemson.

Round 3: S Amani Hooker Iowa Can fill the Geathers role when Geathers is injured or no longer on the team. I'm still a fan of Geathers, but adding another young S is a good idea. Hooker will work well whenever we use our 3-Safety sets.   

Round 4: LB Vosean Joseph Florida From what I have seen, it seems to do well in zone coverage and makes plays in the backfield. Our LB corp is thin outside of Leonard and Walker.  Even if we sign an OLB in free agency like Damien Wilson in my mock, Joseph would be a valuable depth/rotational player.

Round 5: CB David Long Michigan  Appears to play well in zone and man coverage with good awareness. I don't think we need to spend an early pick on CB, but grabbing one like Long on Day 3 is a good idea. 

Round 6: RB Alex Barnes Kansas State Good size at 6'1" 227 lb. Can be utilized in a short-yardage role as a bruiser-type back.  

Round 7: OT Derwin Gray Maryland Adds more depth to the offensive line.

 

Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $7,408,879

 

Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $40,907,010

[Defjamz26]

I’m not sure Flowers is a possible signing. Remember that we have Sheard still under contract, 2 young rookies, and you’re bringing back Hunt. Flowers will want to go somewhere where he can an undisputed starter. If we have Sheard and Ballard has insisted on how important it is for young players to play, I don’t see how the signing works out.

 

Solid draft. You don’t want anything to do with Austin Bryant that early though. He’s the weak link of the Clemson line, who benefited from playing next to 3 elite players.

[Colts1324]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’m not sure Flowers is a possible signing. Remember that we have Sheard still under contract, 2 young rookies, and you’re bringing back Hunt. Flowers will want to go somewhere where he can an undisputed starter. If we have Sheard and Ballard has insisted on how important it is for young players to play, I don’t see how the signing works out.

 

Solid draft. You don’t want anything to do with Austin Bryant that early though. He’s the weak link of the Clemson line, who benefited from playing next to 3 elite players.

People forget that it is very possible we release Sheard IF we sign a top FA on the D-Line. His cap hit if released is in the $2 million range if I’m not mistaken. 

[stitches]

I like it. It's very reasonable and solid mock. I wonder if Trey Flowers would command a bit more, but oh well... no way to know now.  

 

 

11 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

People forget that it is very possible we release Sheard IF we sign a top FA on the D-Line. His cap hit if released is in the $2 million range if I’m not mistaken. 

I don't think that's very probable AT ALL. You cannot have enough good linemen and Sheard is paid a very reasonable contract even if he's not the main passrusher for the team. 

 

 

[Colts1324]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

I like it. It's very reasonable and solid mock. I wonder if Trey Flowers would command a bit more, but oh well... no way to know now.  

 

 

I don't think that's very probable AT ALL. You cannot have enough good linemen and Sheard is paid a very reasonable contract even if he's not the main passrusher for the team. 

 

 

If we sign a top FA such as Dee Ford or Trey Flowers, and draft one such as Wilkins, Tillery, or Wilkins, don’t be surprised if he is in fact let go. 

 

Granted, it’s very unlikely we get a tier 1 FA in the first place. He is a great guy, so maybe Ballard does still keep him. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he is let go. 

[NewColtsFan]

23 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

People forget that it is very possible we release Sheard IF we sign a top FA on the D-Line. His cap hit if released is in the $2 million range if I’m not mistaken. 

 

There's  no reason to release Sheard simply because we sign a top FA DL.    None at all.

 

Remember Ballard wants 10 good DL with 8 interchangeable on game day.     So just because we might get someone better than Sheard,  there's nothing wrong with keeping him and using him for another year....     or even more.

 

I'd peg the odds of releasing Sheard at pretty close to zero....

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

Like the mock, especially the draft. I honestly feel like that's how it's gonna play out. I think a d lineman goes first, then some combo of DL, S, CB, or WR with our 2 in the 2nd. I'd love to see them trade up to land a Montez Sweat or Jachai Polite, and still take a WR with the remaining 2nd rounder. Or, trade Brissett to a QB needy team to move up, that would be ideal, may as well get something for him before he parts ways. I know Ballard really likes the guy, but wouldn't that give Jacoby the opportunity to take his career to the next level?

 

Side note, Tillery will most likely be there with our later pick in the 2nd, and if not, I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking him before that. As an ND fan, I would love to see them land Julian Love maybe in the 3rd or with the latter 2nd. It would be great to see them go Edge, WR, Tillery, then Love. I would be ecstatic, and it would majorly address some glaring needs.

[Dark Superman]

19 hours ago, Caleb3502 said:

Still too early for a realistic mock, but classes are canceled today so this gives me something to do.  I will be using Spotrac for available free agents and for rookie salaries. I will use Overthecap for re-signings. I will run a few simulations through First Pick to see where players are typically available. I will include the Vinatieri & Glowinski contracts.   

 

Cap Space: $117,249,480

 

Colts Free Agents 

 

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir CB - 2 Years/$10 M  

Clayton Geathers SS - 1 Years/$4 M 

Najee Goode OLB

Mark Glowinski - 3 Years/$18 M ($4.2 M Signing Bonus)

Adam Vinatieri - 1 Year/$3.875 M 

Ryan Grant WR

Geneo Grissom DE

Ryan Hewitt TE - 1 Year/$1 M 

Margus Hunt DE - 2 Years/$8 M ($1.5 M Signing Bonus) 

Dontrelle Inman WR - 1 Year/$4.5 M (Fully Guaranteed)

Mike Mitchell FS - 1 Year/2 M ($500K Signing Bonus, Fully Guaranteed)

Matt Slauson G  - I think he will end up retiring.  Maybe we bring him back as a coach.  

J'Marcus Webb OT

J. J. Wilcox SS

Al Woods DT - I don't think we will bring back both him and Hunt, and I think Hunt has more quality football left in him. 

 

Restricted FAs

67 Evan Boehm C - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

41 Matthias Farley SS - 1 Year/$2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

28 Christopher Milton CB - 1 Year/$2.035 (Original Round Tender)

36 Corey Moore FS

80 Chester Rogers WR - 1 Year/2.035 M (Original Round Tender)

43 Ross Travis TE

 

Exclusive-Rights FAs

16 Marcus Johnson WR - 1 Year/$645K 

46 Luke Rhodes LS - 1 Year/$645K

 

Money spent on Re-Signings: $35,033,591

Remaining Cap Space After Re-Signings: $82,215,889

 

Free Agents

 

WR Adam Humphries - 4 Years/$42 M ($20 M Guaranteed) Tyrell Williams is someone I have wanted for awhile, especially with the Siranni/Reich connection. However, I think Humphries would have a larger impact on our offense. Humphries gets a good deal of YAC: 10th most YAC among WRs with 423 yards. Outside of Hilton, the Colts are in the bottom of the league in YAC. He'll be 26 when the season starts, so we can sign him during the prime of his career. In addition, Tyrell Williams reportedly wants the opportunity to be a #1 WR, and I don't think he would become the main target on the Colts.  

 

DE Trey Flowers - 5 Years/$77 M ($40 M Guaranteed) Grady Jarrett is the player I want the most for the D-Line, but I don't see him making his way out of Atlanta. He's their top priority to re-sign and will franchise tag him if they have too, much like DeMarcus Lawrence, another player I don't see going anywhere.  I believe Flowers has the best chance to hit free agency. He will be a nice, young pass rusher to help improve our edge. 

 

OT Cameron Fleming - 1 Year/$3 M Adds depth to the offensive line. Smith had struggles in KC.  Even though it was one game, I would like to have another tackle for depth with Haeg being the only other one that can fill in there.   

 

OLB Damien Wilson - 3 Years/$15 M  I'm not sure what type of salary he will fetch in free agency, but for what I know about him I think it is a fair offer.  Eberflus was his Linebackers coach in Dallas and adds an upgrade to the SAM in our defense. He'll be 26 when the season begins and I think he will help solidify our linebacking corp. 

 

Money spent this year for Free Agents: $33,900,000 

Cap Space Remaining After Free Agency: $48,315,889

 

NFL Draft 

 

Round 1: DT Christian Wilkins Clemson Would work great as a 3 Tech for the Colts D-Line. Would be a great addition for a D-Line that has veterans going into a contract year and nearing or already in their 30s. A very talented player that might not be there at 26, but we should highly consider him if he's on the board when we pick. 

Round 2: WR Kelvin Harmon NC State He's a tall WR at 6'3" with very good hands that can make plays downfield. He's not an elusive player and won't rack up YAC yards, but will be a big target for Luck. Inman is also 6'3", but is coming on to 30 years old, as is Hilton. With no certainty to how Deon Cain will produce or when we will see something from Fountain, Harmon would be a good addition for the future of the WR corp.

Round 2: DE Austin Bryant Clemson  Another piece to add to the EDGE.  Pass Rush was something that needed improving, and Bryant will add more QB pressure for the Colts. 8 Sacks in his senior season at Clemson.

Round 3: S Amani Hooker Iowa Can fill the Geathers role when Geathers is injured or no longer on the team. I'm still a fan of Geathers, but adding another young S is a good idea. Hooker will work well whenever we use our 3-Safety sets.   

Round 4: LB Vosean Joseph Florida From what I have seen, it seems to do well in zone coverage and makes plays in the backfield. Our LB corp is thin outside of Leonard and Walker.  Even if we sign an OLB in free agency like Damien Wilson in my mock, Joseph would be a valuable depth/rotational player.

Round 5: CB David Long Michigan  Appears to play well in zone and man coverage with good awareness. I don't think we need to spend an early pick on CB, but grabbing one like Long on Day 3 is a good idea. 

Round 6: RB Alex Barnes Kansas State Good size at 6'1" 227 lb. Can be utilized in a short-yardage role as a bruiser-type back.  

Round 7: OT Derwin Gray Maryland Adds more depth to the offensive line.

 

Projected NFL Draft Pick Salaries: $7,408,879

 

Cap Space Roll-over for Next Season: $40,907,010

I would be one happy Colts fan if our offseason went down like this.

[jskinnz]

16 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’m not sure Flowers is a possible signing. Remember that we have Sheard still under contract, 2 young rookies, and you’re bringing back Hunt. Flowers will want to go somewhere where he can an undisputed starter. If we have Sheard and Ballard has insisted on how important it is for young players to play, I don’t see how the signing works out.

 

Solid draft. You don’t want anything to do with Austin Bryant that early though. He’s the weak link of the Clemson line, who benefited from playing next to 3 elite players.

 

I think you have me blocked so this likely is wasted energy.

 

However, it is a good idea to let go of the thought that the Colts will not sign a FA edge rusher or draft one because they have Sheard, Turay, & Lewis on the roster.

 

In Ballard's interview, he suggested that pass rush was the team's # 1 need.  If he thinks that could be improved from a signing like Flowers, then he'll do exactly that.  Same with the draft.  In fact it would not be surprising at all if he did both.

[jameszeigler834]

14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

There's  no reason to release Sheard simply because we sign a top FA DL.    None at all.

 

Remember Ballard wants 10 good DL with 8 interchangeable on game day.     So just because we might get someone better than Sheard,  there's nothing wrong with keeping him and using him for another year....     or even more.

 

I'd peg the odds of releasing Sheard at pretty close to zero....

 

ID try to trade him before cutting him.

[NewColtsFan]

13 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:

ID try to trade him before cutting him.

 

He's given the Colts two great years,  with no sign that he won't give us a third.

 

He's worth every penny we pay him!      I vote to keep him!     

[MikeCurtis]

On 1/31/2019 at 12:08 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

There's  no reason to release Sheard simply because we sign a top FA DL.    None at all.

 

Remember Ballard wants 10 good DL with 8 interchangeable on game day.     So just because we might get someone better than Sheard,  there's nothing wrong with keeping him and using him for another year....     or even more.

 

I'd peg the odds of releasing Sheard at pretty close to zero....

 

This is another "tell" that CB has given us, on which way the guy heads into the draft

 

The man has made the above quote on multiple occasions, in ADDITION to the BUILD THE LINES FIRST mantra.

 

We have 3-4 TODAY (maybe 4-5)..... STARTERS....... we are short at least 3, if not 4 starters on the DL, to meet his STATED goal

 

I hope that CB goes DL and front 7 early and often in this draft, as well as being a bit aggressive in FA

 

I think we need to listen to what CB says

 

Great post

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[throwing BBZ]

On 1/30/2019 at 11:29 PM, Defjamz26 said:

I’m not sure Flowers is a possible signing. Remember that we have Sheard still under contract, 2 young rookies, and you’re bringing back Hunt. Flowers will want to go somewhere where he can an undisputed starter. If we have Sheard and Ballard has insisted on how important it is for young players to play, I don’t see how the signing works out.

 

Solid draft. You don’t want anything to do with Austin Bryant that early though. He’s the weak link of the Clemson line, who benefited from playing next to 3 elite players.

 

I have great respect for Sheard. He is a good player and gives 100%.
He isn't as strong or effective as Flowers in any phase. So your point is moot.
 Flowers, you apparently just don't know, is one of the very best in the league at what he does. And you think Ballard would want to defer to a couple guys that MAY develop above average to high level skills by the typical years 3-4. Silliness.

[throwing BBZ]

17 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:

ID try to trade him before cutting him.

 

 This late in Belechick's career, why would he not pay Flower's? He would be awfully hard to replace in the short term.
 But if he is so inclined to consider it.
I think a sign and trade with the Colts with us giving him Sheard to do it is an interesting concept.