Reality's Post Combine Mock

[RealityIsLuck]

Post-Combine, likely last mock before all the Free agency tampering news breaks. 

Starting off with some small roster moves, with a beginning cap room estimation of: 73M. 

 

Cuts:

- Matt Jones [Saves 770K]

- Caruan Reed [Saves 800k] 

- Mark Glowinski [Saves 1.8M] 

 

Trades: 

- John Simon to LAR for a 2019 5th rd. pick 

 

Re-signings: 

- Pierre Desir - 2 years, 2.5 M

- Barkevious Mingo - 1 year, 1.1M 

- Micheal Person - 1 year, 700k 

 

Cap: ~76M 

Free Agency: 

- Josh Sitton OG - 2 years, 15 Million [7.5 annually, 8M guaranteed]

Sitton is still an elite OG in the league even at the age of 31. PFF had him rated as the 5th best OG in the legaue last year, with a grade of 86.0. Sitton can slide right in and fill a huge hole in the OL at a very high level. He's a high character guy and a strong second wave FA.

 

-  Anthony Hitchens ILB - 4 years 25 Million [6.25 annually, 11M guaranteed]

Hitchens is a natural fit, rumours have it that he is 'likely' headed to the Colts. Hitchens has thrived with Eberflus as his DC in Dallas. He's got the flexibility to play all 3 LB positions and at a very high level. Hitchens can be our leader and signal caller from day 1. 

 

- Allen Robinson WR - 4 years 52 Million [13 annually, 18M guaranteed]

Robinson is one of the most intriguing free agents in recent memory. He established himself to be a top WR a couple years back posting monster numbers (1,400 yards!) with Blake Bortles as his QB. Robinson, 24, is a big bodied WR at 6'3. He's the perfect Alshon Jeffery type for Reich. Robinson is fresh off a down season and ACL tear though, which may lower his value a touch. Robinson would thrive in a system with Luck at QB facing single coverage as a boundary WR with TY and Doyle working the middle of the field. 

 

- Alex Okafor DE - 3 years 19.5 Million [6.5 annually, 7M guaranteed]

Okafor is a underrated edge rusher. In his one year in New Orleans, he was a very effective pass rusher. Despite only putting up 4.5 sacks he gathered a PFF grade of 84.7 (ranking him 22nd of all edge rushers). This was because of his ability to rack up a number of pressures. He also had a 12.6% run stop % (best among 43 DEs). Okafors still only 26, and with the right fit could be an elite edge rusher. 

 

- Malcolm Butler CB - 4 years 50 Million [12.5 annually, 22 Million guaranteed]

Butler is an interesting case. He's proven to be top CB, but may be a product of NE's defensive scheme. He's consistently been a top 10 CB for the past 3 years. He's a fit with our new defence. We need a #1 CB to fill in and Butler has experience following the teams top WR. Butler is the leagues top FA CB, and the Colts have a need and money to burn. Furthermore, he's 28 and will fit right in to the new young defensive core.

 

- Korey Toomer LB - 2 years 3.5 Million [1.75 annually, 1M guaranteed] 

An underrated LB who can do it all. He received a PFF grade of 80.4. He's a good rotational piece who could easily start in a pinch and contribute to special teams. 

 

Cap: ~28.5M 

 

Pre Draft: 

- Colts trade a 2018 7th to Buffalo for OT Cordy Glenn. 

Cap: 16.5M

 

Draft: 

Colts trade their 3rd overall pick to New York for their 6th overall pick and 2 2nds. 

- Jets move up in a bidding war for Josh Allen 

Colts trade their 6th overall pick to Tampa Bay for their 7th overall pick and a 2nd. 

- Colts essentially sell Bradley Chubb for a 2nd round pick. 

 

1: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame 

Nelson is a rare prospect. He's as talented and as pro ready as they come. He essentially is coming into the league projecting as a top 10 OG. Nelson has all the tools you want to see, and is one of the best OL prospects, well ever. I have the trade down in this scenario because I don't believe Ballard and co. will fall in love with Chubb. I think they'll really like him, but I think they'll fall in love with Nelson. The idea of an OL with Kelly (24), Nelson (21), Costanzo (29) and Glenn (28) is a very, very interiguing option. This can change the culture of the OL, essentially taking our weakest spot and making it one of our greatest strengths. 

 

2: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 

Evans is an athletic and versatile LB who can play all 3 LB positions, and rush the passer. He can start from day 1 as a WILL LB and contribute to a young, ascending LB group. He's got some areas of his game that he needs to develop, but oh boy if he does he's got potential to be special.

 

2 (from NYJ): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Guice is an elusive, downhill RB with the intangibles to be a top tier runner in the NFL. He's got the speed, power, balance, vision. He just needs to put it all together. Running behind Nelson, Sitton, Kelly and co. he should see a fair amount of significant gaps. 

 

2 (from TB): Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Hurst was diagnosed with a heart condition at the combine, which may scare some teams away. For now, I am assuming that his condition is nothing serious. Hurst is a dominant interior DL, with great pass rushing skills. He's great off the snap and can is athletic given his size. 

 

2 (From NYJ through SEA): Arden Key, DE, LSU

Key is one of the most talented player in this draft, though will likely be available here due to character concerns. Ballard has been known to take some risks on players with concerns being a firm believer in rehabilitation. His tape also got consistently got worse through his 3 college years, something that teams may be scared of. But he does flash the brilliance and has shown it off in the past. If he can put it all together he can be a special pass rusher. 

 

3: Duke Dawson, CB, Florida

Dawson is a 5'10 CB who is likely to be primarily a slot CB. He's a physical CB who ran 4.46, he can look a bit stiff at times but has all the tools to be a strong starting CB. 

 

4: Shaquem Griffin, LB, UCF

Griffin tore up the Combine. Despite only having 1 hand he plays physical and is always around the ball. He ran a 4.38 which is the fastest since 2003 for linebackers. He's an inspiration, a leader, and most importantly a damn good football player.

 

5: Korey Robertson, WR, Central Mississippi 

An effective slot option, Robertson had a somewhat disappointing combine only running a 4.56 40 at 6'1. He's drawing comparisons to a poor mans Jarvis Landry, with dependable hands but nothing spectacular about his game. The colts are rumoured to have interest. 

 

6:  Ryan Izzo, TE, FSU

Blocking TE with some red zone potential.

 

 

Starting Lineup: 

Costanzo - Nelson - Kelly - Sitton - Glenn

Luck 

Guice/Mack 

Hilton - Robinson - Robertson - Rogers 

Doyle - Swope - Izzo 

 

Okafor/Key - Hankins - Hurst - Sheard 

Evans - Hitchens - Griffen/Toomer 

Butler - Wilson - Dawson - Desir - Hairston

Hooker - Gaether/Farley 

[Coltfreak]

38 minutes ago, RealityIsLuck said:

Post-Combine, likely last mock before all the Free agency tampering news breaks. 

Starting off with some small roster moves, with a beginning cap room estimation of: 73M. 

 

Cuts:

- Matt Jones [Saves 770K]

- Caruan Reed [Saves 800k] 

- Mark Glowinski [Saves 1.8M] 

 

Trades: 

- John Simon to LAR for a 2019 5th rd. pick 

 

Re-signings: 

- Pierre Desir - 2 years, 2.5 M

- Barkevious Mingo - 1 year, 1.1M 

- Micheal Person - 1 year, 700k 

 

Cap: ~76M 

Free Agency: 

- Josh Sitton OG - 2 years, 15 Million [7.5 annually, 8M guaranteed]

Sitton is still an elite OG in the league even at the age of 31. PFF had him rated as the 5th best OG in the legaue last year, with a grade of 86.0. Sitton can slide right in and fill a huge hole in the OL at a very high level. He's a high character guy and a strong second wave FA.

 

-  Anthony Hitchens ILB - 4 years 25 Million [6.25 annually, 11M guaranteed]

Hitchens is a natural fit, rumours have it that he is 'likely' headed to the Colts. Hitchens has thrived with Eberflus as his DC in Dallas. He's got the flexibility to play all 3 LB positions and at a very high level. Hitchens can be our leader and signal caller from day 1. 

 

- Allen Robinson WR - 4 years 52 Million [13 annually, 18M guaranteed]

Robinson is one of the most intriguing free agents in recent memory. He established himself to be a top WR a couple years back posting monster numbers (1,400 yards!) with Blake Bortles as his QB. Robinson, 24, is a big bodied WR at 6'3. He's the perfect Alshon Jeffery type for Reich. Robinson is fresh off a down season and ACL tear though, which may lower his value a touch. Robinson would thrive in a system with Luck at QB facing single coverage as a boundary WR with TY and Doyle working the middle of the field. 

 

- Alex Okafor DE - 3 years 19.5 Million [6.5 annually, 7M guaranteed]

Okafor is a underrated edge rusher. In his one year in New Orleans, he was a very effective pass rusher. Despite only putting up 4.5 sacks he gathered a PFF grade of 84.7 (ranking him 22nd of all edge rushers). This was because of his ability to rack up a number of pressures. He also had a 12.6% run stop % (best among 43 DEs). Okafors still only 26, and with the right fit could be an elite edge rusher. 

 

- Malcolm Butler CB - 4 years 50 Million [12.5 annually, 22 Million guaranteed]

Butler is an interesting case. He's proven to be top CB, but may be a product of NE's defensive scheme. He's consistently been a top 10 CB for the past 3 years. He's a fit with our new defence. We need a #1 CB to fill in and Butler has experience following the teams top WR. Butler is the leagues top FA CB, and the Colts have a need and money to burn. Furthermore, he's 28 and will fit right in to the new young defensive core.

 

- Korey Toomer LB - 2 years 3.5 Million [1.75 annually, 1M guaranteed] 

An underrated LB who can do it all. He received a PFF grade of 80.4. He's a good rotational piece who could easily start in a pinch and contribute to special teams. 

 

Cap: ~28.5M 

 

Pre Draft: 

- Colts trade a 2018 7th to Buffalo for OT Cordy Glenn. 

Cap: 16.5M

 

Draft: 

Colts trade their 3rd overall pick to New York for their 6th overall pick and 2 2nds. 

- Jets move up in a bidding war for Josh Allen 

Colts trade their 6th overall pick to Tampa Bay for their 7th overall pick and a 2nd. 

- Colts essentially sell Bradley Chubb for a 2nd round pick. 

 

1: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame 

Nelson is a rare prospect. He's as talented and as pro ready as they come. He essentially is coming into the league projecting as a top 10 OG. Nelson has all the tools you want to see, and is one of the best OL prospects, well ever. I have the trade down in this scenario because I don't believe Ballard and co. will fall in love with Chubb. I think they'll really like him, but I think they'll fall in love with Nelson. The idea of an OL with Kelly (24), Nelson (21), Costanzo (29) and Glenn (28) is a very, very interiguing option. This can change the culture of the OL, essentially taking our weakest spot and making it one of our greatest strengths. 

 

2: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 

Evans is an athletic and versatile LB who can play all 3 LB positions, and rush the passer. He can start from day 1 as a WILL LB and contribute to a young, ascending LB group. He's got some areas of his game that he needs to develop, but oh boy if he does he's got potential to be special.

 

2 (from NYJ): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Guice is an elusive, downhill RB with the intangibles to be a top tier runner in the NFL. He's got the speed, power, balance, vision. He just needs to put it all together. Running behind Nelson, Sitton, Kelly and co. he should see a fair amount of significant gaps. 

 

2 (from TB): Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Hurst was diagnosed with a heart condition at the combine, which may scare some teams away. For now, I am assuming that his condition is nothing serious. Hurst is a dominant interior DL, with great pass rushing skills. He's great off the snap and can is athletic given his size. 

 

2 (From NYJ through SEA): Arden Key, DE, LSU

Key is one of the most talented player in this draft, though will likely be available here due to character concerns. Ballard has been known to take some risks on players with concerns being a firm believer in rehabilitation. His tape also got consistently got worse through his 3 college years, something that teams may be scared of. But he does flash the brilliance and has shown it off in the past. If he can put it all together he can be a special pass rusher. 

 

3: Duke Dawson, CB, Florida

Dawson is a 5'10 CB who is likely to be primarily a slot CB. He's a physical CB who ran 4.46, he can look a bit stiff at times but has all the tools to be a strong starting CB. 

 

4: Shaquem Griffin, LB, UCF

Griffin tore up the Combine. Despite only having 1 hand he plays physical and is always around the ball. He ran a 4.38 which is the fastest since 2003 for linebackers. He's an inspiration, a leader, and most importantly a damn good football player.

 

5: Korey Robertson, WR, Central Mississippi 

An effective slot option, Robertson had a somewhat disappointing combine only running a 4.56 40 at 6'1. He's drawing comparisons to a poor mans Jarvis Landry, with dependable hands but nothing spectacular about his game. The colts are rumoured to have interest. 

 

6:  Ryan Izzo, TE, FSU

Blocking TE with some red zone potential.

 

 

Starting Lineup: 

Costanzo - Nelson - Kelly - Sitton - Glenn

Luck 

Guice/Mack 

Hilton - Robinson - Robertson - Rogers 

Doyle - Swope - Izzo 

 

Okafor/Key - Hankins - Hurst - Sheard 

Evans - Hitchens - Griffen/Toomer 

Butler - Wilson - Dawson - Desir - Hairston

Hooker - Gaether/Farley 

What did you start you cap at to have it equal 16.5 left? Never mind.  I see it. 

 

The Colts don't have 76 million to spend   They have a little under 60 to spend in actual money 

[Defjamz26]

Why the Chubb hate? So many mock drafts are constructed so that we purposely miss on him? It’s either the Giants pass on a QB for him or we trade out so someone else can take him.

[RealityIsLuck]

22 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Why the Chubb hate? So many mock drafts are constructed so that we purposely miss on him? It’s either the Giants pass on a QB for him or we trade out so someone else can take him.

It's explained in my Nelson write up. In this scenario, I'm assuming Ballard falls in love with Nelson but not Chubb. Nelson is a generational guy, Chubb is good. But he's no generational talent. The prospect of moving back (twice!) and getting a guy that you love and is generational is a so rewarding. 

[Trueman]

59 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

What did you start you cap at to have it equal 16.5 left? Never mind.  I see it. 

 

The Colts don't have 76 million to spend   They have a little under 60 to spend in actual money 

 

Lol.. maybe don’t quote the 3 page post next time?

[RealityIsLuck]

1 hour ago, Coltfreak said:

What did you start you cap at to have it equal 16.5 left? Never mind.  I see it. 

 

The Colts don't have 76 million to spend   They have a little under 60 to spend in actual money 

This is incorrect. Their cap is at 73, I cut Jones Reed and Glowsinski and traded Simon which freed another ~7M. Putting it around 80, then about 4M in resignings brought it back to 76M. 

 

I have no idea where you're getting your figure of 60 from. 

[jameszeigler834]

1 hour ago, Coltfreak said:

What did you start you cap at to have it equal 16.5 left? Never mind.  I see it. 

 

The Colts don't have 76 million to spend   They have a little under 60 to spend in actual money 

From what I saw we had the 5 most cap space at almost 74 million.

[Coltfreak]

14 minutes ago, RealityIsLuck said:

This is incorrect. Their cap is at 73, I cut Jones Reed and Glowsinski and traded Simon which freed another ~7M. Putting it around 80, then about 4M in resignings brought it back to 76M. 

 

I have no idea where you're getting your figure of 60 from. 

There are obligations that you have to account for out of that 76 million 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/56792-colts-cap-breakdown/

Edited March 9, 2018 by Coltfreak

[DaColts85]

10 hours ago, Coltfreak said:

There are obligations that you have to account for out of that 76 million 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/56792-colts-cap-breakdown/

His starting number is just that a starting number.  He is not including the draft like you are wanting to.  After everything is done though his numbers are not off.  He has us at about 16.5 going into the draft.  That will account for nearly 10 mil, leaving about 6.5ish left for in season churn.  Seems legit to me.

[chad72]

We are not spending $13 mil. on Allen Robinson who is coming off an injury. Josh Sitton will be signed for more than 2 years by any team in the league, we should sign him for 3 years at the very least.

 

I like the trade scenarios. As is, I like the draft too.

 

I just think that there will be other teams that will take the same kind of risk with Maurice Hurst and Arden Key. Plus, I'd think a guy like Antonio Callaway from Florida is a risk worth taking at the WR position in the draft. Plus, if you are moving down, I feel the trigger might be pulled on other pass rush candidates earlier, IMO.

[MPStack]

12 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Why the Chubb hate? So many mock drafts are constructed so that we purposely miss on him? It’s either the Giants pass on a QB for him or we trade out so someone else can take him.

I’m with you! If Chubb is there at #3 he’ll be a Colt. The trade downs are getting ridiculous. Ballard has already stated a trade down is not likely.

[IndyScribe]

Just now, MPStack said:

I’m with you! If Chubb is there at #3 he’ll be a Colt. The trade downs are getting ridiculous. Ballard has already stated a trade down is not likely.

When did he say that? I think he's open to trading down but the offer has to be really good. I imagine if Chubb and Barkley are both of the board, then Ballard is likely to stay put. There are also reports that he is looking to trade down, if you believe Zierlein.

[Barry Sears]

I'd be happy with all of this...good FA signings, very good draft picks, too.

[MPStack]

3 minutes ago, IndyScribe said:

When did he say that? I think he's open to trading down but the offer has to be really good. I imagine if Chubb and Barkley are both of the board, then Ballard is likely to stay put. There are also reports that he is looking to trade down, if you believe Zierlein.

indianasportscoverage.com/colts-appear-unlikely-trade-back-3rd-overall-pick/

[Hoose]

15 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I’m with you! If Chubb is there at #3 he’ll be a Colt. The trade downs are getting ridiculous. Ballard has already stated a trade down is not likely.

I don’t agree. Ballard will say what’s necessary to keep the value of that pick as high as possible. I think you can read between the lines and see he’s saying we want a truckload for that pick. And rightly so. No great offer? You take Chubb and don’t look back. But I think there will be some strong offers for the pick. Too many QB needy teams. 

[Defjamz26]

38 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I’m with you! If Chubb is there at #3 he’ll be a Colt. The trade downs are getting ridiculous. Ballard has already stated a trade down is not likely.

I’m seeing trade downs where we trade back 2 spots, then back one more spot which is ridiculous IMO. Unless it’s the Browns at 4 who took Barkley at 1, the Colts are going to stay put and take Chubb.

[Coltsfanforlife12]

1 hour ago, IndyScribe said:

When did he say that? I think he's open to trading down but the offer has to be really good. I imagine if Chubb and Barkley are both of the board, then Ballard is likely to stay put. There are also reports that he is looking to trade down, if you believe Zierlein.

I don’t think that rumor should be taken as we are looking to trade down.  If we are looking at the same tweet there are at least two teams interested in trading for 3 to get Josh Allen. 

[IndyScribe]

3 minutes ago, Coltsfanforlife12 said:

I don’t think that rumor should be taken as we are looking to trade down.  If we are looking at the same tweet there are at least two teams interested in trading for 3 to get Josh Allen. 

Yep, and if their offer is good enough, Ballard will pull the trigger and trade down, even if Chubb is on the board.

[RealityIsLuck]

6 hours ago, MPStack said:

I’m with you! If Chubb is there at #3 he’ll be a Colt. The trade downs are getting ridiculous. Ballard has already stated a trade down is not likely.

He's also said the complete opposite. He says you evaluate wherever you are. He's said they'll consider it. 

[RealityIsLuck]

5 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’m seeing trade downs where we trade back 2 spots, then back one more spot which is ridiculous IMO. Unless it’s the Browns at 4 who took Barkley at 1, the Colts are going to stay put and take Chubb.

Why is it ridiculous? If you can move back and are still confident you'll get your guy, why would you not do it? That's illogical. And for what reason do you believe the Colts even value Chubb so high?

[Defjamz26]

3 hours ago, RealityIsLuck said:

Why is it ridiculous? If you can move back and are still confident you'll get your guy, why would you not do it? That's illogical. And for what reason do you believe the Colts even value Chubb so high?

Teams very rarely move back twice in the first round (only the Browns recently). Especially just to move back 1-2  spots. Usually teams just trade to the spot they want and stay there. The Colts are not going to trade from 3 to 6 and then from 6-7.

 

And Chubb is a consensus top 3 player so I’m assuming they’ll have him rated as high.

[BleedBlu8792]

I'm still baffled as to why people keep wanting to trade Simon. Trading him isn't helping our DE rotation at all. He's not a SAM, even though he could possobly play there, he's a DE and better suited for this defense.

[FalseStart]

I appreciate this mock...except for that round 3 pick.  RD 3: Maybe Rankin OT, Elliot S, Clark WR, Moore WR, Victor ILB, etc...