Mariota's Accuracy

[wig]

I thought this was an interesting article about Mariota's accuracy.  I lot of false statements get thrown around about it being poor, and him not being able to throw it downfield.  Personally, I hope Tennessee trades the pick.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/104701/standardized-completion-percentage-gives-truer-version-of-accuracy

 

"Looking forward to the 2015 draft class, Marcus Mariota is the most accurate quarterback of the group. He completed 68.3 percent of his passes with an average pass distance of 8.8 yards last year at Oregon. That resulted in a standardized completion percentage of 73.6 percent.

Mariota’s accuracy has been pegged as an area of concern as he transitions to the pros. The numbers do not support this notion. He led all Power 5 quarterbacks in completion percentage on passes thrown 15 yards or longer last season and ranked second in completion percentage from inside the pocket. Although standardized completion percentage does not account for Oregon’s offense and how often Mariota was asked to read defenses, it captures his accuracy on the throws he was asked to make."

 

 

[ColtRider]

I thought this was an interesting article about Mariota's accuracy.  I lot of false statements get thrown around about it being poor, and him not being able to throw it downfield.  Personally, I hope Tennessee trades the pick.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/104701/standardized-completion-percentage-gives-truer-version-of-accuracy

 

"Looking forward to the 2015 draft class, Marcus Mariota is the most accurate quarterback of the group. He completed 68.3 percent of his passes with an average pass distance of 8.8 yards last year at Oregon. That resulted in a standardized completion percentage of 73.6 percent.

Mariota’s accuracy has been pegged as an area of concern as he transitions to the pros. The numbers do not support this notion. He led all Power 5 quarterbacks in completion percentage on passes thrown 15 yards or longer last season and ranked second in completion percentage from inside the pocket. Although standardized completion percentage does not account for Oregon’s offense and how often Mariota was asked to read defenses, it captures his accuracy on the throws he was asked to make."

181.7 QBR. 4454 yards. 42 TDs. Yikes! I know the numbers were high, but mercy sakes. That is incredibly off the charts for a Junior QB. I can certainly see why Tampa Bay took a look at him more extensively. You just cannot disregard the touting that Winston is a better overall QB than Mariota before they take a single snap in the NFL. I wouldn't want to be in the Bucs shoes right now. To me, IMO, rolling with Winston instead of Mariota is a 50/50 split considering the baggage Jameis brings to the table with immaturity quandaries.

[southwest1]

My biggest issue with Marcus Mariota is I just can't picture the guy rallying the troops or inspiring his teammates around him. Okay, perhaps he leads by quiet example. However, can you get in somebody's face if they aren't concentrating or playing sloppy? No, I'm just not feeling that. Jameis Winston can motivate teammates to play better around him & still get in a guy's grill if he isn't paying attention. 

 

Accuracy in college means nothing. All players have to adjust to the speed on defense & tighter throwing lanes. The throwing lanes & running lanes just aren't as wide as they are in college. 

[wig]

My biggest issue with Marcus Mariota is I just can't picture the guy rallying the troops or inspiring his teammates around him. Okay, perhaps he leads by quiet example. However, can you get in somebody's face if they aren't concentrating or playing sloppy? No, I'm just not feeling that. Jameis Winston can motivate teammates to play better around him & still get in a guy's grill if he isn't paying attention. 

 

Accuracy in college means nothing. All players have to adjust to the speed on defense & tighter throwing lanes. The throwing lanes & running lanes just aren't as wide as they are in college. 

 

 

Eli has won two SBs.  

 

As far as getting on guys, he has stood up, punted a football across the field, and screamed at the team for goofing off while they were stretching at the beginning of practice.  He doesn't get fired up often, especially outside of closed doors, but don't think he won't when it's needed.  When you have a guy like him, when he does speak up, you better believe everyone shuts their mouths and listen.

 

And lol @ accuracy meaning nothing.

[southwest1]

Eli has won two SBs.  

 

As far as getting on guys, he has stood up, punted a football across the field, and screamed at the team for goofing off while they were stretching at the beginning of practice.  He doesn't get fired up often, especially outside of closed doors, but don't think he won't when it's needed.  When you have a guy like him, when he does speak up, you better believe everyone shuts their mouths and listen.

 

And lol @ accuracy meaning nothing.

Accuracy at the college level & pro level is an entirely different animal wig & you know that's what I meant. Please....

 

What the hades does Eli Manning have to do with anything? He's a member of NFL royalty as part of the Manning family. He's been a leader from day 1 at Ole Miss & the NY Giants. 

 

I will confess I don't watch Oregon Ducks Football so I have no frame of reference for what Marcus did in college. The spread offense never dazzles me personally. 

[wig]

What the hades does Eli Manning have to do with anything? He's a member of NFL royalty as part of the Manning family. He's been a leader from day 1 at Ole Miss & the NY Giants. 

 

The fact that he has a constant blank stare and never gets in the face of his teammates?

 

So he can lead like that because of his last name but nobody else can?  He's been a leader all his life but Marcus isn't because of his last name?  Really confused here.

[southwest1]

The fact that he has a constant blank stare and never gets in the face of his teammates?

 

So he can lead like that because of his last name but nobody else can?  He's been a leader all his life but Marcus isn't because of his last name?  Really confused here.

I said in my previous post that & I quote: "Okay, perhaps he [Mariota] leads by quiet example." It seems to be I was being fair & balanced about Marcus & his demeanor. 

 

Show me where I said that only Eli Manning leads by silence & no other QB can...Go ahead, I'll wait. And my point about the Manning name has nothing to do with silence, but media savviness & winning on the pinnacle of professional football on the NFL level. 

 

Again, I don't watch Ducks football & just because you claim he's a leader I'm not obligated to believe it until I see it with my own eyes on the NFL stage. 

[21isSuperman]

That data is kinda skewed when you play in a spread offense and your receivers are always so open

[CR91]

spread offenses tend to inflate numbers

[Dustin]

My favorite is:

 

"Winston didnt play with any talent!"

 

Most people couldn't name a single skill player on Oregon without looking it up. 

[Dustin]

"Mariota can't function outside of the structure of his offense" 

 

http://zippy.gfycat.com/AjarAccomplishedIberianlynx.webm

[Dustin]

Just FYI: Mariota was by far the best QB when pressured last year. 

[Dustin]

"He can't go through reads" 

 

http://zippy.gfycat.com/UnripeQuarrelsomeAmericangoldfinch.webm

[Superman]

I read that article earlier. Some good stuff, but just wanted to point this out:

 

Standardized completion percentage not only is a better measurement of accuracy, but it also has been shown to be a superior predictor of NFL success.

In the last three seasons, the top three players in standardized completion percentage entering the draft were Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Teddy Bridgewater. All three have had above-average Total QBRs since entering the NFL and have a combined 56-39 regular-season record.

 

 

Our friend RG3 had a 66% completion rate as a rookie. Luck was 54%.

 

None of these metrics, including standardized completion percentage, can gauge a QB's ability to make tough throws accurately to all levels of the field, against all sorts of defenses.

 

Along those lines, when people talk about Mariota's accuracy, they aren't talking about his ability to complete throws at a high percentage. Again, the article has a lot of nice stuff, but it's missing the point. The criticisms of Mariota's accuracy are about his ability to make throws in tight windows, backside throws, seam throws, dumpoffs (not designed dumpoffs, but progression based dumpoffs, where footwork and balance and pocket presence are all involved), etc.  It's only by watching him play that you can see this, and when you do so, you'll see balls sail, you'll see some one-hoppers to open receivers, you'll see him struggle with resetting his feet and making strong throws to the outside, etc.

 

I'm not knocking him. Every QB prospect ever has things to work on. I still get on Luck about making quicker and better decisions. But when we talk about the fundamentals of pro style QBing, there are some rough spots with Mariota. Accuracy is one of them, probably the least of them, but still worthy of recognition.

[wig]

That data is kinda skewed when you play in a spread offense and your receivers are always so open

Womp womp. Always an excuse when someone makes their mind up. Same group of people that say he threw nothing but screens. Until stats prove that wrong. In comes excuse #7.

[wig]

It's only by watching him play that you can see this, and when you do so, you'll see balls sail, you'll see some one-hoppers to open receivers, you'll see him struggle with resetting his feet and making strong throws to the outside, etc.

All true. Especially the last part. But, not anymore than most top 5 picks not named Luck. If he couldn't run so well, people wouldn't highlight his throwing flaws so much.

Bottom line, he still has work to do but is much better at what he does poorly than people give him credit for.

[Superman]

I can't rewatch and grab gifs and stuff right now, so I'll just steal some.

 

Balls sail due to poor footwork and anticipation: 

 

Underthrows on the move:

 

 

Bad pocket work:

 

 

For everyone of these, there's a hundred highlights. He's really good. Doesn't mean he doesn't have some things to work on.

[Superman]

All true. Especially the last part. But, not anymore than most top 5 picks not named Luck. If he couldn't run so well, people wouldn't highlight his throwing flaws so much.

Bottom line, he still has work to do but is much better at what he does poorly than people give him credit for.

 

Eh, I don't think it's that he runs so well. (And he runs really, really well. Where the hell does he go here??? http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3175193/MarcusSpeed.gif)

 

I think it's that he's in a spread offense. There's a predetermination that spread QBs can't play pro style ball. I think Mariota can, but I think there's some critical refinement needed, and if you try to throw him in a Coryell offense or a WCO or anything more advanced than the spread hybrids that have made their way into the league lately, you're pushing it too hard, too fast. If he goes to Philly, or any coaching staff that will do with him what Washington and SF did with RG3 and Kap at first, then gradually works on giving him more pro stuff, then he'll be great. 

 

Along those lines, I think the Niners trying to force Kap to be more pro style is stupid. If you have a dynamic playmaker and you're winning on his back, just keep going. Let him get it as he gets it. If you draft Mariota and keep him in his element, then fine. But you better be able to run the ball, and you better be ready to chew him out every time he takes a big hit, etc. 

 

All these words, and really all I'm saying is that I think he needs work on the pro style fundamentals. I'm not saying he isn't good and won't work in the NFL. Just to clarify...

[Dustin]

Eh, I don't think it's that he runs so well. (And he runs really, really well. Where the hell does he go here??? http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3175193/MarcusSpeed.gif)

 

I think it's that he's in a spread offense. There's a predetermination that spread QBs can't play pro style ball. I think Mariota can, but I think there's some critical refinement needed, and if you try to throw him in a Coryell offense or a WCO or anything more advanced than the spread hybrids that have made their way into the league lately, you're pushing it too hard, too fast. If he goes to Philly, or any coaching staff that will do with him what Washington and SF did with RG3 and Kap at first, then gradually works on giving him more pro stuff, then he'll be great. 

 

Along those lines, I think the Niners trying to force Kap to be more pro style is stupid. If you have a dynamic playmaker and you're winning on his back, just keep going. Let him get it as he gets it. If you draft Mariota and keep him in his element, then fine. But you better be able to run the ball, and you better be ready to chew him out every time he takes a big hit, etc. 

 

All these words, and really all I'm saying is that I think he needs work on the pro style fundamentals. I'm not saying he isn't good and won't work in the NFL. Just to clarify...

 

I think the better question is where the hell did that .gif go lol? 

[Superman]

I think the better question is where the hell did that .gif go lol?

That's how fast he is.

[Superman]

MEEP MEEP!

[Dustin]

Mariota is basically Alex Smith (not as conservative) as a passer and Colin Kaepernick as a runner.

 

Winston is basically Jay Cutler. 

[wig]

Mariota is basically Alex Smith (not as conservative) as a passer and Colin Kaepernick as a runner.

Winston is basically Jay Cutler.

That's a comparison I haven't seen before but pretty dang fair.

[ColtRider]

Marcus Mariota reminds me of the overall 82nd pick in round 3 of the 1979 NFL Draft. Wanna talk about "spread offenses"? Same build, same arm strength, same accuracy, just not the speed as much. Pocket QBs win the day in the NFL for longevity. His demeanor and stature mirrors Mariota in many ways. If this guy can lead the way as the above pick ... (In my best Paul Harvey voice) ... now you know the rest of the story!

[backshoulderfade]

Mariota will succeed in the NFL.

[Valpo2004]

My biggest issue with Marcus Mariota is I just can't picture the guy rallying the troops or inspiring his teammates around him. Okay, perhaps he leads by quiet example. However, can you get in somebody's face if they aren't concentrating or playing sloppy? No, I'm just not feeling that. Jameis Winston can motivate teammates to play better around him & still get in a guy's grill if he isn't paying attention. 

 

Accuracy in college means nothing. All players have to adjust to the speed on defense & tighter throwing lanes. The throwing lanes & running lanes just aren't as wide as they are in college. 

 

You know they bring this stuff up a lot, they brought it up with Luck cause he was too "nerdy" and honestly I don't agree with it at all, here is why.  

 

1. I've never heard of someone bust at the QB because they couldn't be a leader.  That isn't to say that leadership isn't important, but no one has ever had everything else but busted because they couldn't lead.

 

2. (And here is the reason I think #1 is true).  I don't think leadership in college and the pros is actually all that different, this is one thing where the NFL and college isn't very different.  You earn respect the same way, you get in their face the same way and you act the same way in front of the media (passing credit for the good things, but taking the blame for what's bad).  It's one of a few things that is really about the same.  So if the guy did it in college, he can do it in the pros.

 

My biggest concern with Mariota is how quickly he's going to learn to read defenses and audible.  He said he hasn't called a play since high school, his coaches in college really micro managed him here.  

 

So when the coaches send him in with 3 plays and tell him to switch plays at the line based on what he see's from the defense, how's he going to read that pro-defense when he's never even read a college defense.

 

It's literally like asking him to go from a high school science class straight to a graduate level science class with no undergraduate work inbetween and expecting him to get an A or a B.  He is WAY behind on his ability to read defenses. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

My biggest issue with Marcus Mariota is I just can't picture the guy rallying the troops or inspiring his teammates around him. Okay, perhaps he leads by quiet example. However, can you get in somebody's face if they aren't concentrating or playing sloppy? No, I'm just not feeling that. Jameis Winston can motivate teammates to play better around him & still get in a guy's grill if he isn't paying attention. 

 

Accuracy in college means nothing. All players have to adjust to the speed on defense & tighter throwing lanes. The throwing lanes & running lanes just aren't as wide as they are in college. 

 

I had thought that might be a factor myself, SW1.  As time goes by, I think about Eli Manning.  Joe Flacco.  Heck, even Joe Montana was not a Rah Rah guy!  Yet these guys still stepped up when it counted and won Super Bowls.  I think Mariota can earn teammates respect by making plays when the going gets tough.  The team will rally around that, knowing he doesn't fold like a cheap lawn chair, and a vocal guy will step in and take care of that when necessary as well.

 

So yeah, I agree Jameis can has an edge in 'vocal inspiration' but I think Mariota can succeed even though he's not an in your face kind of guy.

[ColtsBlueFL]

You know they bring this stuff up a lot, they brought it up with Luck cause he was too "nerdy" and honestly I don't agree with it at all, here is why.  

 

1. I've never heard of someone bust at the QB because they couldn't be a leader.  That isn't to say that leadership isn't important, but no one has ever had everything else but busted because they couldn't lead.

 

2. (And here is the reason I think #1 is true).  I don't think leadership in college and the pros is actually all that different, this is one thing where the NFL and college isn't very different.  You earn respect the same way, you get in their face the same way and you act the same way in front of the media (passing credit for the good things, but taking the blame for what's bad).  It's one of a few things that is really about the same.  So if the guy did it in college, he can do it in the pros.

 

My biggest concern with Mariota is how quickly he's going to learn to read defenses and audible.  He said he hasn't called a play since high school, his coaches in college really micro managed him here.  

 

So when the coaches send him in with 3 plays and tell him to switch plays at the line based on what he see's from the defense, how's he going to read that pro-defense when he's never even read a college defense.

 

It's literally like asking him to go from a high school science class straight to a graduate level science class with no undergraduate work inbetween and expecting him to get an A or a B.  He is WAY behind on his ability to read defenses. 

 

All rookie QB's have things to work on.  To me, Mariota and the 3, 5, 7 step drop from under center, and pre-snap D reading and adjustment making. I feel he is smart enough and talented enough to develop those traits rather than drop his eyes, tuck the ball and try to run his way out of trouble.

[Valpo2004]

All rookie QB's have things to work on.  To me, Mariota and the 3, 5, 7 step drop from under center, and pre-snap D reading and adjustment making. I feel he is smart enough and talented enough to develop those traits rather than drop his eyes, tuck the ball and try to run his way out of trouble.

 

Maybe but it quite frankly could take him too darn long.  I literally don't know how you go from never reading a college defense to trying to do that in the pros.  

 

I would be concerned about any QB in the spread offense.  Add to that how much the coaches did the play calling at Oregon.  

[wig]

 

 

My biggest concern with Mariota is how quickly he's going to learn to read defenses and audible.  He said he hasn't called a play since high school, his coaches in college really micro managed him here.  

 

So when the coaches send him in with 3 plays and tell him to switch plays at the line based on what he see's from the defense, how's he going to read that pro-defense when he's never even read a college defense.

 

It's literally like asking him to go from a high school science class straight to a graduate level science class with no undergraduate work inbetween and expecting him to get an A or a B.  He is WAY behind on his ability to read defenses. 

 

He did this with practically every play in Oregon's offense.  Pretty much every play in the playbook has 3-4 options for him to take after looking at coverages pre-snap and the first step of the defense after the snap.  For example, a simple running play he reads a handoff, keeper or bubble screen depending on the defense.  And because of how fast the offense runs, he has to do it very quickly.  He will have no issues processing information pre-snap.

[wig]

Marcus Mariota reminds me of the overall 82nd pick in round 3 of the 1979 NFL Draft. Wanna talk about "spread offenses"? Same build, same arm strength, same accuracy, just not the speed as much. Pocket QBs win the day in the NFL for longevity. His demeanor and stature mirrors Mariota in many ways. If this guy can lead the way as the above pick ... (In my best Paul Harvey voice) ... now you know the rest of the story!

 

Question - are you an Oregon fan or just a Saint Marcus fan?

[ColtRider]

Question - are you an Oregon fan or just a Saint Marcus fan?

1. A magnificent COLTS fan! (over 50 years)

2. Huge NFL fan! (same amount of time as above)

3. Nebraska fan!/USC/UK (in that order)

4. Common sense fan! (ever since I can remember)

How 'bout you, or anyone else?

[wig]

1. A magnificent COLTS fan! (over 50 years)

2. Huge NFL fan! (same amount of time as above)

3. Nebraska fan!/USC/UK (in that order)

4. Common sense fan! (ever since I can remember)

How 'bout you, or anyone else?

 

Colts fan since Manning showed up when I was 14 (family ties to Tennessee)

Bigger college fan than NFL fan

Portland native/Oregon season ticket holder

[ColtsBlueFL]

Maybe but it quite frankly could take him too darn long.  I literally don't know how you go from never reading a college defense to trying to do that in the pros.  

 

I would be concerned about any QB in the spread offense.  Add to that how much the coaches did the play calling at Oregon.  

 

I get where you are coming from.  By the same token, not having to doesn't necessarily translate to can not.  This may have no bearing, or may a lot- who knows.  But the NFL uses the Wonderlic.  Defined as-

 

The Wonderlic Cognitive Ability Test (formerly known as the Wonderlic Personnel Test) is a popular group intelligence test used to assess the aptitude of prospective employees for learning and problem-solving in a range of occupations.

 

Mariota scored a 33.  Winston netted a decent 27 himself.  Here's a list of some current  well known QB's-

 

37 — Andrew Luck

35 — Aaron Rodgers

33 — Tom Brady

30 — Philip Rivers

28 — Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson

27 — Joe Flacco

25 — Ben Roethlisberger

 

Right there with Brady.  Speaking of which, some scouts were hard on that guy pre draft as well. Here's a typical summary-

 

"Is not what you’re looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement (as in Brian Griese) as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.

 

What Brady admitted to having was-

 

"I think my best asset as a player is that in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, I have the desire to win and the feeling that our team is not going to lose,"

 

Sporting News had projected Brady to go in round 3.  He went in the 6th at #199.  but some othe rPro Bowlers also went in round 6 that year with Tom-  Marc Bulger, Neil Rackers and Adalius Thomas

 

So if Mariota is smart, and alert and can remain poised and have that desire to win like Brady, he can learn quickly and be a star. Hopefully Mariota goes to a system / OC that brings out his best, like Belicheck / Weiss did for Tom.

[Superman]

I get where you are coming from.  By the same token, not having to doesn't necessarily translate to can not. 

 

If it's not on film, it's a projection. If anyone can grasp the finer points of QBing, learn them on the fly and even excel, it's Marcus Mariota. But the fact that he has never had to do something is important to acknowledge. Otherwise, we can project him as a top five WR, even though we've never seen him play the position. He has the size and the speed, we know he'd work his butt off... who cares if we've never seen him run routes?

[ColtsBlueFL]

If it's not on film, it's a projection. If anyone can grasp the finer points of QBing, learn them on the fly and even excel, it's Marcus Mariota. But the fact that he has never had to do something is important to acknowledge. Otherwise, we can project him as a top five WR, even though we've never seen him play the position. He has the size and the speed, we know he'd work his butt off... who cares if we've never seen him run routes?

 

yes, but no QB is born with all knowledge of Pro Style QB-ing.  They all had to be shown and taught. Unfortunately, the college football landscape is filled with spread offense teams, and few pro style sets. so learning as an underclassman like Luck and Winston is a luxury.  But others can too, even if they are getting a late start on it.

[wig]

If it's not on film, it's a projection. If anyone can grasp the finer points of QBing, learn them on the fly and even excel, it's Marcus Mariota. But the fact that he has never had to do something is important to acknowledge. Otherwise, we can project him as a top five WR, even though we've never seen him play the position. He has the size and the speed, we know he'd work his butt off... who cares if we've never seen him run routes?

 

 

Funny you say that.  In HS he was told he couldn't make it as a QB and he should switch to WR 

 

He ended up having one of the best QB tapes I've ever seen from a HS QB after starting for one season.

[Superman]

yes, but no QB is born with all knowledge of Pro Style QB-ing.  They all had to be shown and taught. Unfortunately, the college football landscape is filled with spread offense teams, and few pro style sets. so learning as an underclassman like Luck and Winston is a luxury.  But others can too, even if they are getting a late start on it.

 

Yeah, it's not a sticking point for me, because of what we know about Mariota. But you don't leave it out of the scouting report either, or just gloss over it with a "he'll figure it out" kind of attitude. This stuff has tripped up many QB prospects.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Yeah, it's not a sticking point for me, because of what we know about Mariota. But you don't leave it out of the scouting report either, or just gloss over it with a "he'll figure it out" kind of attitude. This stuff has tripped up many QB prospects.

 

Agreed. That is why the "Intangibles" count so heavily.  And the scripted personal workouts, etc. Does he know some things, can he quickly grasp others?  Because by the same token, you can't leave a potential franchise QB off the top of your list because he ran a spread where all his plays were called by the HC/OC. Or there's no tape that he ran a series under center, etc. And If he can be "one of the few", you go get him and coach him up.  But some of these poor guys get 5 OC's during their rookie contract and are just trashed by their supposed 'big contract' arrives.  Or thrown into a situation where there is NO talent around them.  Those guys are lucky to still have jobs and be considered a decent game manager in today's game.

[Superman]

Agreed. That is why the "Intangibles" count so heavily.  And the scripted personal workouts, etc. Does he know some things, can he quickly grasp others?  Because by the same token, you can't leave a potential franchise QB off the top of your list because he ran a spread where all his plays were called by the HC/OC. Or there's no tape that he ran a series under center, etc. And If he can be "one of the few", you go get him and coach him up.  But some of these poor guys get 5 OC's during their rookie contract and are just trashed by their supposed 'big contract' arrives.  Or thrown into a situation where there is NO talent around them.  Those guys are lucky to still have jobs and be considered a decent game manager in today's game.

 

Like Alex Smith.

 

For me, Mariota's intangibles mostly offset his deficiencies. But if he goes to a dysfunctional organization like the Browns or something, then may heaven help him...