Why Did Moncrief Fall So Far in the Draft?

[Smonroe]

The answers are in the article, and you could make a good case for about half of the 14 chosen before him as being better players.

 

We all know the draft isn't a science.  I said it in a different thread, but of the top 10 picks in the 12 draft, probably half of them won't be offered contracts by the team that signed them.

 

That's five out of the TOP 10!  So projecting a guy somewhere between a 3rd or 5th rounder is a crap shoot.

 

Bottom line, stuff happens.  Let's be glad he's working out for us.

[Valpo2004]

TY was a third rounder... 

 

Marcus Colston was a sixth rounder

 

Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and on and on ..    NFL scouts don't know as much as they think they do.   It is nothing more than a human crap shoot.

 

Go back and do the 12 draft over and Luck, Allen, and TY would all be top 15 picks.   That draft could go down as an ALL TIME great draft for the team.

 

Ehh there is always a crapshoot element to it.  Players bust and you always get a few guys from the late rounds and UDFA ranks that become stars.  

 

But they deserve more credit then they often get.  Draft status is pretty correlated to league success at least in most positions, (I'm arguing that these days it's not coorelated well with RB's).

 

And while guys do bust, and you get the occasional Tom Brady's, most of the league's star players came in the first 2 rounds.  

 

There is some roll of the dice there but it's not entirely random.  

[Valpo2004]

For what it's worth Walterfootball.com liked him and loved the pick but said he was raw and would probably not contribute much until the end of the year this year or next year.  

 

A lot of those guys that went ahead of him where able to come in and contribute right away.  

 

So my guess is that he fell because he had some stuff to work on.  

[lollygagger8]

Some player gets under drafted , some get over drafted: 

 

DHB was a first rounder, 7th overall pick. 

 

Hakeen Nicks was a first rounder too. 

 

Donnie Avery was a 2nd rounder. 

 

I think that's all the "stunt receivers" over the past few years.

[Smash Mouth]

Most of them are doing terrific. Better than Moncrief. Watkins, Evans, Beckaham JR., Brandin Cooks (before IR), Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson (before IR), and Jarvis Landry all went before Moncrief and all have made great plays.

I wouldn't say that they're all doing better than Moncrief.  They have all been given more opportunity.  Benjamin was a starter immediately, Adams earned the 3rd WR position and the trust of Rogers;  Evans also got early playing time on a bad team and now is performing well; and the others have had moments just like Moncrief.  Moncrief has done ell with opportunity too.

[pacolts56]

I wouldn't say that they're all doing better than Moncrief.  They have all been given more opportunity.  Benjamin was a starter immediately, Adams earned the 3rd WR position and the trust of Rogers;  Evans also got early playing time on a bad team and now is performing well; and the others have had moments just like Moncrief.  Moncrief has done ell with opportunity too.

And another WR who went even lower than Moncrief was Steelers 4th round pick Martavis Bryant, who was opposite Sammy Watkins at Clemson.

 

This WR draft class is off to quite a start....it'll be very interesting to see how their careers progress.

[Smash Mouth]

John Brown in AZ and Jarvis Landry in Miami are also good.

[throwing BBZ]

He was the 14th WR selected in the draft.

 

I know it was a very deep group of talent at the position this year, but I don't watch much college ball so I was wondering what the knocks on him were coming out of college? He is big, fast and appears to have good hands from what we've seen in his limited game time.

 

His dress game is also on point;

 

 

 They have these Useful things called scouting reports.

 

 Weaknesses

Needs to sharpen his route running. Inconsistent ball reactions, particularly in traffic -- better running through or under passes. Does not always play to his size -- gets outmuscled for "50-50" balls and is still coming into his own as a dependable go-up-and-get-it guy. Average hand strength. Tends to trap some throws against his body and occasionally drops catchable balls. Could be more physical. Average elusiveness and open-field electricity. Showed he could be contained -- seven games of 60 yards or less as a junior.

[ColtStronger]

Most of them are doing terrific. Better than Moncrief. Watkins, Evans, Beckaham JR., Brandin Cooks (before IR), Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson (before IR), and Jarvis Landry all went before Moncrief and all have made great plays.

All of those WR's are great!  A very special draft class, thats for sure.  I can only imagine where they all will be in 4 years.  Great WR's for everybody

[ProblChld32]

It was a deep draft at the WR position and there were guys that had better intangibles rated above him. 

[masterlock]

i think the same could be said for him now

I think he's gotten better, made some nice hand catches.

[John Dee]

Just of the top of my head...  

 

Richard Sherman  Lavonte David

Leshon McCoy   Jamaal Charles   Ray Rice   Frank Gore

Piere Garcon    Ty Hilton   Jimmy Graham   Antonio Gaes    first rounders are obviously important picks      but missing on one is not the end of the world   and "most of the star talent" in the NFL does NOT come in the first 2 rounds.

 

Robert Mathis, A Bethea, Garry Brackett,  ...   and on and on....  

Ehh there is always a crapshoot element to it.  Players bust and you always get a few guys from the late rounds and UDFA ranks that become stars.  

 

But they deserve more credit then they often get.  Draft status is pretty correlated to league success at least in most positions, (I'm arguing that these days it's not coorelated well with RB's).

 

And while guys do bust, and you get the occasional Tom Brady's, most of the league's star players came in the first 2 rounds.  

 

There is some roll of the dice there but it's not entirely random.  

[COLTS449]

If he had waited to enter this year he'd be a 1st rounder IMO. Moncrief is going to be a star for the next several years.

[COLTS449]

Just of the top of my head...  

 

Richard Sherman  Lavonte David

Leshon McCoy   Jamaal Charles   Ray Rice   Frank Gore

Piere Garcon    Ty Hilton   Jimmy Graham   Antonio Gaes    first rounders are obviously important picks      but missing on one is not the end of the world   and "most of the star talent" in the NFL does NOT come in the first 2 rounds.

 

Robert Mathis, A Bethea, Garry Brackett,  ...   and on and on....  

 

David went in the 2nd round. I remember wanting us to pick him in the 2nd, then hoping he'd fall to us in the 3rd after we picked Fleener.

[Superman]

If he had waited to enter this year he'd be a 1st rounder IMO. Moncrief is going to be a star for the next several years.

 

He might have taken a back seat to Treadwell this season. That dude is a monster. It's too bad he got hurt...

[Combsey]

Most of them are doing terrific. Better than Moncrief. Watkins, Evans, Beckaham JR., Brandin Cooks (before IR), Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson (before IR), and Jarvis Landry all went before Moncrief and all have made great plays.

Yes they are doing pretty well but keep in mind they also start for their teams where as Moncrief has played third fiddle for much of the year.

[AndreRison]

I read an article before the draft where they talked about Moncrief, according to advanced stats, being one of the best wide receivers to come out. Calvin Johnson had the highest measurable of any of the receivers in the league coming out of college. They had Moncrief at number 3 or 4. If those stats can translate, which it's looking that way, we may have one of the greats. This may bode well for the Colts heading into the playoffs.

[Dustin]

I read an article before the draft where they talked about Moncrief, according to advanced stats, being one of the best wide receivers to come out. Calvin Johnson had the highest measurable of any of the receivers in the league coming out of college. They had Moncrief at number 3 or 4. If those stats can translate, which it's looking that way, we may have one of the greats. This may bode well for the Colts heading into the playoffs.

 

Yeah, i linked that article here. Physically, he was on par with Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Demaryius Thomas. Thought those 3 are far more agile, Moncrief is showing way more after the catch ability then I anticipated (he leads the NFL in YAC average and has 5 forced missed tackles [TY has 4])