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I think you're working from some assumptions that I don't agree with. First, it seems like you believe "the system" produces 32 relatively equal draft boards, and it's pretty obvious that's not the case. Second, it seems like you believe that if a team picks a player in the 4th round, that means they must have had a 4th round grade on him, otherwise they would have drafted him earlier. It's possible that a team feels more strongly about a player than other teams. They could have Player X as their 30th player, and Player Y as their 35th player. The team is on the clock at #40, both players are still on the board, the team takes Player X. A few picks go by, Player Y is still on the board, they start trying to move up from wherever they sit in the next round, but a trade isn't coming together. They wind up staying put, and are able to draft Player Y -- their 35th ranked prospect -- at #75 or whatever. They had a high 2nd round grade on him, and got him in the middle of the third. Maybe they'd felt like they got lucky because things went their way. But drafting him in the third round doesn't mean they only viewed him as a third round prospect; what would make that scenario possible is the fact that every team works from their own board, and there are major variances from team to team. -
I doubt that. The reason is because not a single WR was selected the rest of the 2nd round, as borne out by how that 2nd round went. So any other GM still chose not to draft a single WR after the AD pick (either felt they didn't need one or had already gotten one), so your statement is not supported by how things played out. Whether it was Ballard at 52 or Ballard at 56 that he traded down to, he would have still found AD as value and pulled the trigger, is my contention. -
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By RollerColt · Posted
For what it’s worth: there are videos of a younger Chris Ballard ranting and cursing about college players getting anonymous negative reports. He really gets heated on that subject. -
I think there are aspects of players that have better fits with certain teams than with others, and so that's why they are eventually picked. And rosters have different levels of depth, impacting why they are picked by some teams and not others. The FO knows players attributes, I'm not saying they just throw a dart. I think all teams know exactly the same things about players. They hire staff from other teams, who then go onto yet other teams. They all have the same info, and their FO staffs have the same training as every other staff, and same third party vendor analytics. Late round players that turn into all-stars were simply missed by "the system". The one team who picked that player benefitted by some sort of miniscule motivation they had over another team, like no depth at EDGE or the desire to train a QB into hopefully becoming a backup. I'm assuming ADM was picked by Ballard because of several risk factors coming together where it did. Its worth taking the risk about attitude given his #1WR traits and production, combined with the knowledge that the Colts don't really have a #1Wr on the roster....like ADM can be. My opinion is that if you plucked Ballard out of his chair just before we went on the clock, and replaced him with any one of the other 31 GMs who were charged with the responsibility of picking player 52, any other GM probably would have made the same decision for the Colts that Ballard did. Heck, I'd bet half of the fans would have too, and making picks isn't their full time job and background.
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