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Now 100% Sold on Larry Warford in the 1st


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Grigson has proven that he has a serious independent streak in him.  He trusted his scouting so much that he gave Walden and RJF way more money than anyone thought they deserved.  They bring the skills the D needs, and who cares if others see it differently.  Now, I have no high degree of certainty, since I don't know Grigson or our intended offensive or defensive systems very well.  However, it seems to me that the Colts will remain an offensive-oriented team.  They will win through an unstoppable offense, like the excellent Manning-led teams of the past.  Grigson already signed (or re-signed) five front-seven players on D, as well as a new starting SS and CB, in FA.  What he seems to have left for the draft is building a championship OL.  RG is the obvious target for the following reasons:

 

1) Presumed starting guard Joe Reitz missed 8 games last year due to injury (6 were knee and 2 were concussion).

2) The only guard depth we have is Linkenbach, McGlynn, Justin Anderson, and Ijalana.  Of those, McGlynn and Ijalana are extreme long-shots b/c of poor play and injuries, respectively.  Linkenbach is only serviceable, and Anderson is still a big project.

3) Both Reitz and Thomas are LGs, and neither are power blockers.  With the new system that Pep Hamilton is installing, I presume that the power run game will be emphasized. 

 

Many people agree with that analysis, but believe that there's no RG target who isn't a reach.  However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excells at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach.  I think Walterfootball's profile is a good example of why I'd take Warford at #24:

 

"In a normal year, Warford would be the top guard of the class and a late first-round pick. However with rare prospects like Cooper and Warmack, it looks like Warford will last into the second day.

Kentucky was terrible in 2012, but Warford was excellent. He opened up holes in the ground game and performed well in pass protection. Warford is a better athlete and quicker than one would think. He had an impressive senior season.

Warford battled well against Florida and defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd. Warford played even better against Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, shutting down the latter's pass rush. The plays that the Missouri standout had success on only came when he went against other offensive linemen.

Warford was an underrated prospect, but that may have changed after he looked phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. Warford was one of the few offensive linemen who could block Georgia defensive tackle John Jenkins. Warford won his one-on-one reps and did extremely well in the team scrimmage. It wouldn't be surprising if he turns into an excellent guard in the NFL and causes a lot of teams to regret not using a first-round pick on him."
 

 

 

 

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Many here like Warford and rightfully so, but it would be somewhat surprising to see him taken in the first based on most projections.  If they can trade back then I think they can get him there in the 2nd.  Most think Cooper and Warmack will be long gone by 24.  What if Cooper goes at 10 to TN and Warmack is still there at 17?  I think if G is the pick in the first then they have to look at possibly trading up to get Warmack.  Just depend on what they would actually have to give up to move.

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Archer, I may be the only one on the board that thinks Warford is as good as Cooper and Warmack because I have seen him so much being from Southern Indiana.  I flat out love the guy and as you say is "an OL GM's dream."  The guy does not quit.

 

I still do not think that Grigs will get him in the first.  The scouting report you mention is spot on..."However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excels at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach."  In addition....he does not quit on his blocks...much like Warmack to the left.

 

I said in another thread I think Warford will be known eventually as the best guard in this draft....343 pounds of athleticism and drive cannot be taught.  I support your excellent write up on Warford.  I just do not think Grigs will do it.  That said, I will be one of the very few that will not be upset if he is....Larry Warford could be a bad bad man in this league.  Go  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo: !!!!  

 

1 day, 3 hours, and 15 minutes.........14, 13, 12... :)

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"Grigson has proven that he has a serious independent streak in him.  He trusted his scouting so much that he gave Walden and RJF way more money than anyone thought they deserved." Dont want to come off as complaining about either deal but RJF has not played up to the contract he received(22 mill over 4 years seriously?), thats a simple fact easily made. As to Walden yeah he got more then what he should have but if you just look at the numbers themselves BUT he is only guaranteed 1 year, if he is cut prior to the 5th day of the 2014 league year then I believe we just owe him his signing bonuses money of 250,000 $ over the next 3 years 

 

"Now, I have no high degree of certainty, since I don't know Grigson or our intended offensive or defensive systems very well.  However, it seems to me that the Colts will remain an offensive-oriented team.  They will win through an unstoppable offense," I am sure Grigson and I know Pagano is smarter then that-defense wins championships, Nobody in recent history should know that better then us

 

1, 2,3-Agree on all accounts

 

 

"Many people agree with that analysis, but believe that there's no RG target who isn't a reach.  However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excells at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach."-Slow footed and will ahve alot of trouble vs smaller DT's with pass rush moves(will get beat on double moves because of that a fair amount) and hand punch is not as stunning as you would think for someone his size, also slow at times out of his stance. Of course Warford can block Jenkins, That was impressive but he did not put jenkins on the ground and move him out of the middle

 

 

 

 

Wouldn't mind at all if we drafted him at the top of the 2nd in a trade down but he is not as strong as we were led to believe, 28 reps at combine is good but Cooper is stronger and plays with better technique while being more athletic

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"Grigson has proven that he has a serious independent streak in him.  He trusted his scouting so much that he gave Walden and RJF way more money than anyone thought they deserved." Dont want to come off as complaining about either deal but RJF has not played up to the contract he received(22 mill over 4 years seriously?), thats a simple fact easily made. As to Walden yeah he got more then what he should have but if you just look at the numbers themselves BUT he is only guaranteed 1 year, if he is cut prior to the 5th day of the 2014 league year then I believe we just owe him his signing bonuses money of 250,000 $ over the next 3 years 

 

"Now, I have no high degree of certainty, since I don't know Grigson or our intended offensive or defensive systems very well.  However, it seems to me that the Colts will remain an offensive-oriented team.  They will win through an unstoppable offense," I am sure Grigson and I know Pagano is smarter then that-defense wins championships, Nobody in recent history should know that better then us

 

1, 2,3-Agree on all accounts

 

 

"Many people agree with that analysis, but believe that there's no RG target who isn't a reach.  However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excells at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach."-Slow footed and will ahve alot of trouble vs smaller DT's with pass rush moves(will get beat on double moves because of that a fair amount) and hand punch is not as stunning as you would think for someone his size, also slow at times out of his stance. Of course Warford can block Jenkins, That was impressive but he did not put jenkins on the ground and move him out of the middle

 

 

 

 

 

Wouldn't mind at all if we drafted him at the top of the 2nd in a trade down but he is not as strong as we were led to believe, 28 reps at combine is good but Cooper is stronger and plays with better technique while being more athletic

Based on grades I would take Cooper 1st.  I could care less about his (Warford's) combine.(Grigson does not either)  The guy blocks 20 yards down the field.  Cooper only "blocks 30 yards down the field :) according to Kiper :)

 

I have seen Warford WAY to much....These guys are comparable....

 

we could only be so lucky as to snag Warford....with a trade back of some sort....

 

They both are going to be good ones...

 

One thing to note is who Warford played week in and week out.....not the ACC....he had the big boys....

Edited by BrentMc11
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First....

 

Not a Walter Football fan.

 

Second...

 

There are almost no mocks predicting warford goes in the first.

 

Third....

 

Other than NFL.com draft section (but not Mayock and not their mocks) and WalterFootball there are simply no other projections of him in the first.

 

The rest of his projections are low 2nd to high 3rd....

 

Fastest way for a good team to go to an average team is to reach for talent.

 

I'm a Warford fan...   and would like us to trade back to get him and more picks.   But if we take him at 24,  not only will I be shocked,   I'll be disappointed and even angry with Grigson.    It'll be the most un-Grigson like thing he has done since he became GM.

 

It'll be a mistake,  and that's even allowing that Warford becomes what we all hope he'll become.   A mistake because you can get him in the 2nd round.    That's how this draft-game is played correctly.

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Archer, I may be the only one on the board that thinks Warford is as good as Cooper and Warmack because I have seen him so much being from Southern Indiana.  I flat out love the guy and as you say is "an OL GM's dream."  The guy does not quit.

 

I still do not think that Grigs will get him in the first.  The scouting report you mention is spot on..."However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excels at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach."  In addition....he does not quit on his blocks...much like Warmack to the left.

 

I said in another thread I think Warford will be known eventually as the best guard in this draft....343 pounds of athleticism and drive cannot be taught.  I support your excellent write up on Warford.  I just do not think Grigs will do it.  That said, I will be one of the very few that will not be upset if he is....Larry Warford could be a bad bad man in this league.  Go  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo: !!!!  

 

1 day, 3 hours, and 15 minutes.........14, 13, 12... :)

I love Warford too but I am in SW Indiana as well

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I love Warford too but I am in SW Indiana as well

 

Well, I swear that this has nothing to do with my stance on Warford, but I live in Lexington, KY.  I have a friend who knows Warford really well, and she calls him a "sweet guy" and says he has a lot of interests in his life more interesting to him than football.  At first I considered this a big negative.  I'd rather have a football junkie who - sad as it is - lives and breathes football.   However, apparently Warford has a really good head on his shoulders, and he knows that football is going to be the key to a better life for his family.  So, he's worked on his game hard and he's become a heck of a player.  I think it's possible to be a nice guy off the field, but an animal on it...

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Oh, and I get what you guys are saying.  GMs don't win Exec-of-the-Year by leaving value on the table on draft day.  If we can trade down and still get Warford, Grigs is gonna try to do it!  However, I also think that the following probably goes through his mind: "If I think Warford is worth #24, how many other GMs think the same thing?"  Of course, I don't really know if Grigson likes Warford at all!!!  ;)

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I'd be willing to bet good money that Winters won't be available at our 3rd rounder.  I've heard he's rising, and I've even seen a couple of sources saying he's getting 1st-round consideration...  To me, if we miss out on Warford, the best possible OG we get is Alvin Bailey too early in the 3rd...

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I'd be willing to bet good money that Winters won't be available at our 3rd rounder.  I've heard he's rising, and I've even seen a couple of sources saying he's getting 1st-round consideration...  To me, if we miss out on Warford, the best possible OG we get is Alvin Bailey too early in the 3rd...

 

To me,  you can't trade back hoping for one guy....   there has to be a fallback plan....

 

So, if we trade back to get Warford, and he gets taken before we can,  then I think Winter if the fallback.   I've also heard his name is rising....    so, fine,  let's take him in the 2nd and be done with it....

 

But remember the famous Brian Billick quote on the draft....     "Need is a terrible judge of talent"

 

Translated for the Colts....   "just because we need a big powerful right guard and Warford is the best one of those we can get,  doesn't mean he's worth the 24th pick..."

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First....

 

Not a Walter Football fan.

 

Second...

 

There are almost no mocks predicting warford goes in the first.

 

Third....

 

Other than NFL.com draft section (but not Mayock and not their mocks) and WalterFootball there are simply no other projections of him in the first.

 

The rest of his projections are low 2nd to high 3rd....

 

Fastest way for a good team to go to an average team is to reach for talent.

 

I'm a Warford fan...   and would like us to trade back to get him and more picks.   But if we take him at 24,  not only will I be shocked,   I'll be disappointed and even angry with Grigson.    It'll be the most un-Grigson like thing he has done since he became GM.

 

It'll be a mistake,  and that's even allowing that Warford becomes what we all hope he'll become.   A mistake because you can get him in the 2nd round.    That's how this draft-game is played correctly.

 

I have no problem with 'first', but 'second' and 'third' are regularly over-ridden by GMs.

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Well, I swear that this has nothing to do with my stance on Warford, but I live in Lexington, KY.  I have a friend who knows Warford really well, and she calls him a "sweet guy" and says he has a lot of interests in his life more interesting to him than football.  At first I considered this a big negative.  I'd rather have a football junkie who - sad as it is - lives and breathes football.   However, apparently Warford has a really good head on his shoulders, and he knows that football is going to be the key to a better life for his family.  So, he's worked on his game hard and he's become a heck of a player.  I think it's possible to be a nice guy off the field, but an animal on it...

 

See if you can find out if video games is one of his interests.

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I have no problem with 'first', but 'second' and 'third' are regularly over-ridden by GMs.

 

 

Well.....   of course they're over-ridden by GM's....    that's their job....

 

I'm only trying to point out that the overwhelming body of reports that are available to the average fan show Warford as a 2nd round pick.   And of the ones that don't, more say 3rd round than 1st round.

 

Is he a first round pick on some NFL GM's board?    Maybe.   Perhaps even possibly.    But I'd be willing to bet he's not a 1st rounder on 28-30 boards.    Now, we'll never know that....   but there's more information that supports me than there is supporting Warford for the first round....

 

And remember,  I'm a Warford guy.....

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Well.....   of course they're over-ridden by GM's....    that's their job....

 

I'm only trying to point out that the overwhelming body of reports that are available to the average fan show Warford as a 2nd round pick.   And of the ones that don't, more say 3rd round than 1st round.

 

Is he a first round pick on some NFL GM's board?    Maybe.   Perhaps even possibly.    But I'd be willing to bet he's not a 1st rounder on 28-30 boards.    Now, we'll never know that....   but there's more information that supports me than there is supporting Warford for the first round....

 

And remember,  I'm a Warford guy.....

 

Understood, and all I'm saying is that none of those mocks matter much, especially as you get lower in the 1st.

Heck, I saw a mock a little bit ago that didn't even have Warmack making it in the 1st.

Can't wait 'til tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry Gavin.....had to.

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Understood, and all I'm saying is that none of those mocks matter much, especially as you get lower in the 1st.

Heck, I saw a mock a little bit ago that didn't even have Warmack making it in the 1st.

Can't wait 'til tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry Gavin.....had to.

No problem, It wasn't intentional actually anyway, I was flipping between pages and lost track of who I left out who was an obvious 1st round pick (even though I am not as high on Warmack as most....close but I have Cooper being better 

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No problem, It wasn't intentional actually anyway, I was flipping between pages and lost track of who I left out who was an obvious 1st round pick (even though I am not as high on Warmack as most....close but I have Cooper being better 

 

 

A number of draft experts like Cooper more because they believe he can play all three interior positions and might be an excellent center....   and they think he can play both zone and man (though he'd be better in zone)   But his versatility gives him a higher grade for some scouts than Warmack...

 

My point is,  you're not alone. 

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Grigson has proven that he has a serious independent streak in him.  He trusted his scouting so much that he gave Walden and RJF way more money than anyone thought they deserved.  They bring the skills the D needs, and who cares if others see it differently.  Now, I have no high degree of certainty, since I don't know Grigson or our intended offensive or defensive systems very well.  However, it seems to me that the Colts will remain an offensive-oriented team.  They will win through an unstoppable offense, like the excellent Manning-led teams of the past.  Grigson already signed (or re-signed) five front-seven players on D, as well as a new starting SS and CB, in FA.  What he seems to have left for the draft is building a championship OL.  RG is the obvious target for the following reasons:

 

1) Presumed starting guard Joe Reitz missed 8 games last year due to injury (6 were knee and 2 were concussion).

2) The only guard depth we have is Linkenbach, McGlynn, Justin Anderson, and Ijalana.  Of those, McGlynn and Ijalana are extreme long-shots b/c of poor play and injuries, respectively.  Linkenbach is only serviceable, and Anderson is still a big project.

3) Both Reitz and Thomas are LGs, and neither are power blockers.  With the new system that Pep Hamilton is installing, I presume that the power run game will be emphasized. 

 

Many people agree with that analysis, but believe that there's no RG target who isn't a reach.  However, scouting report after scouting report seems to say that Warford will be a solid starter who excells at both the power run blocking and pass-blocking.  I just don't see how that makes him a reach.  I think Walterfootball's profile is a good example of why I'd take Warford at #24:

 

"In a normal year, Warford would be the top guard of the class and a late first-round pick. However with rare prospects like Cooper and Warmack, it looks like Warford will last into the second day.

Kentucky was terrible in 2012, but Warford was excellent. He opened up holes in the ground game and performed well in pass protection. Warford is a better athlete and quicker than one would think. He had an impressive senior season.

Warford battled well against Florida and defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd. Warford played even better against Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, shutting down the latter's pass rush. The plays that the Missouri standout had success on only came when he went against other offensive linemen.

Warford was an underrated prospect, but that may have changed after he looked phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. Warford was one of the few offensive linemen who could block Georgia defensive tackle John Jenkins. Warford won his one-on-one reps and did extremely well in the team scrimmage. It wouldn't be surprising if he turns into an excellent guard in the NFL and causes a lot of teams to regret not using a first-round pick on him."

We can probably trade back to get him which makes it even better. We can get the guy we want plus another pick or two.

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Good discussion, guys.  I know that Warford isn't considered a 1st rounder by very many of the internet draftniks.  However, the Walden/RJF signings gave us a little insight into the mindset of Mr Grigson, and I could see him pulling something like this in the 1st round.  It's easy for me to see how he could consider Warford a dramatic upgrade at perhaps the weakest position on the depth chart.  In that case, wouldn't that be the move that most improves the team (in the short term, anyways)?

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I wouldn't flip if we drafted Warford at 24 but I think its a reach(I'd flip if we drafted a RB or TE and of course a QB maybe even S early), Not a huge one but still a reach and I firmly believe better players will be on the board. As to Walden and especially RJF (Especially given the terms of his deal) I just hope it works out for the good for Grigsons sake. Thats not to say I dont like either player because hey they are a Colts and I will support whoever wears the horse shoe but that support wont come without some concerns and criticism, The Walden signing....No big deal given the language of the contract, whatever he can give us would be good in my book and if he fizzles out in year 1 then no big deal just cut him in the offseason and find his replacement (although I'd give Hughes his shot), Im not expecting him to be a world beat just a rotational olb. I have somewhat higher expectations for Francois given his contract and lack of language in the contract to get out of the deal if he fizzles out which I hope dont happen but would not be surprised. Anyway 13 hours and 57 minutes to go till draft time  :headspin:  :mindblow:  :funny:

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Well, I swear that this has nothing to do with my stance on Warford, but I live in Lexington, KY.  I have a friend who knows Warford really well, and she calls him a "sweet guy" and says he has a lot of interests in his life more interesting to him than football.  At first I considered this a big negative.  I'd rather have a football junkie who - sad as it is - lives and breathes football.   However, apparently Warford has a really good head on his shoulders, and he knows that football is going to be the key to a better life for his family.  So, he's worked on his game hard and he's become a heck of a player.  I think it's possible to be a nice guy off the field, but an animal on it...

Reggie White comes to mind!!  What a player...what a person he was....

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A number of draft experts like Cooper more because they believe he can play all three interior positions and might be an excellent center....   and they think he can play both zone and man (though he'd be better in zone)   But his versatility gives him a higher grade for some scouts than Warmack...

 

My point is,  you're not alone. 

AND...he had 77 pancake blocks vs Elon..... :spit:

 

OK...a little added sarcasm to the vast UNC schedule.  :)

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I wouldn't flip if we drafted Warford at 24 but I think its a reach(I'd flip if we drafted a RB or TE and of course a QB maybe even S early), Not a huge one but still a reach and I firmly believe better players will be on the board. As to Walden and especially RJF (Especially given the terms of his deal) I just hope it works out for the good for Grigsons sake. Thats not to say I dont like either player because hey they are a Colts and I will support whoever wears the horse shoe but that support wont come without some concerns and criticism, The Walden signing....No big deal given the language of the contract, whatever he can give us would be good in my book and if he fizzles out in year 1 then no big deal just cut him in the offseason and find his replacement (although I'd give Hughes his shot), Im not expecting him to be a world beat just a rotational olb. I have somewhat higher expectations for Francois given his contract and lack of language in the contract to get out of the deal if he fizzles out which I hope dont happen but would not be surprised. Anyway 13 hours and 57 minutes to go till draft time  :headspin:  :mindblow:  :funny:

Remember....these mocks are just that.....mere grading points between judges of talent truly mean as much as McShay vs. KIper.  :)

 

We can debate.....argue....critique....but at 24 we all might be shocked.  I remember a whole lotta boos when a guy by the name of Edgerrin James was selected...he turned out OL... haha

 

Whether we stay put, trade back....whatever....tonight promises to have both surprises...and a whole lot of NFL fun....Love the debates on here!!  :) 

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You're welcome!

 

I don't know what we'd do without your amazingly insightful contributions. But at least you helped your post count out right?   :thmup:

 

I agree with Gavin, I'd rather have Warford than a TE or RB at 24 but I find it very hard to believe there wouldn't be a pass rusher there at that spot that would have a higher (possibly substantially so) grade than Warford.

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Good discussion, guys.  I know that Warford isn't considered a 1st rounder by very many of the internet draftniks.  However, the Walden/RJF signings gave us a little insight into the mindset of Mr Grigson, and I could see him pulling something like this in the 1st round.  It's easy for me to see how he could consider Warford a dramatic upgrade at perhaps the weakest position on the depth chart.  In that case, wouldn't that be the move that most improves the team (in the short term, anyways)?

That is certainly true....but Bill Polian commented yesterday that in this draft the value of players between 25-45 is basically the same.

 

I'm not a Polian kool-aid drinker but if that is accurate, then selecting Warford at #24 may not be the disaster some see it as. And trade-down scenarios are great to conjure up here on the Forum but making a deal in real life a different story and also carries the risk of getting scooped on a targeted player anyway.

 

And if all the QBs and most of the WRs drop...that probably means that teams, for once, used their heads and the #24 value of players taken before us has dried up all of our other options and indeed could leave Warford as the best player available on Grigson's board.

 

I'd be mildly surprised if this is what happens but I certainly won't punch a hole in the wall if it does. Warford upgrades RG for us any way we slice it.

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I don't know what we'd do without your amazingly insightful contributions. But at least you helped your post count out right?   :thmup:

 

I agree with Gavin, I'd rather have Warford than a TE or RB at 24 but I find it very hard to believe there wouldn't be a pass rusher there at that spot that would have a higher (possibly substantially so) grade than Warford.

Jason S, guardian angel of the forum to the rescue....being offended for others since 2011!

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That is certainly true....but Bill Polian commented yesterday that in this draft the value of players between 25-45 is basically the same.

 

 

This has definitely figured into my logic on the matter.  Most years, you'd pass up a lot of good players to "reach" like this.   This year, the opportunity cost doesn't seem that high, as the other options at #24 aren't that great IMHO.  Obviously, any player we take there will improve our team in some way, but there won't be any elite players at #24...

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Jason S, guardian angel of the forum to the rescue....being offended for others since 2011!

 

Not offended in the slightest.  Just curious why you would feel the need to post just to say "tl:dr".  I mean really?  If you're that incapable of adding anything even remotely substantial to the conversation then why post at all?  I'm pretty sure that posting just to post without adding anything at all to the conversation would be considered trolling.  Just sayin. ;)

 

 

 

 

This has definitely figured into my logic on the matter.  Most years, you'd pass up a lot of good players to "reach" like this.   This year, the opportunity cost doesn't seem that high, as the other options at #24 aren't that great IMHO.  Obviously, any player we take there will improve our team in some way, but there won't be any elite players at #24...

 

That could be true but no way to know that.  There are always players taken much earlier than expected due to need, spotty scouting or countless other reasons.  There very well could still be an impact player available at #24...maybe not elite, but then again out of this draft, how many players can truly be considered "elite"?  Probably only a handful, if that.

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