Rookie QB Drive Stats

[Larry Horseman]

Cold Hard Football Facts did a really interesting analysis of drive stats for Luck, RGIII, and Wilson. Here's the link: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/nfls-rookie-the-year-finalists-2012-drive-stats/21378/

 

I'm not starting this topic to spark yet another Luck vs. RGIII/Wilson (although I'm sure it will go there at some point). Instead, I was hoping we could discuss the issues that BA's scheme caused and how these might be improved by Pep's version of the WCO and improvements on defense and the OL. So basically, I'm hoping that people will actually talk some football instead of point out that both RGIII and Wilson (more like the Skins and Hawks) were more efficient than Luck (the Colts).

 

What all three rookie QBs did last year was amazing. The main difference was the Colts inability to put points on the board (especially TDs) after long drives. Despite having more drives, the Colts scored fewer points. The Colts scored either a TD or FG on 34% of drives (60 total scores), while the Skins and Hawks scored on 41% (64 total scores). Much of this is due to TOs, as the Colts turned the ball over on 14% of drives while the Skins did on 7% and the Hawks on 11%. Starting field position also played a key role; the Colts were near the bottom of the league and only started 3.98% of drives in opponents territory (league average is 14%).

 

There are plenty of other ways to slice the data and much more included in the article. How do you think the FO and Pep are going to address this during the offseason and how much do you think the Colts will improve next year?

[Flash7]

I thought it was a good analysis. Here are my thoughts:

 

1. Our inability to run made it very difficult to score in the red zone. Luck actually led the team in rushing TDs. Being so one-sided made it easier for opposing defenses, and harder for us to score. We just couldn't run it in for a TD, and it all fell on Luck to make it happen one way or another.

 

2. Since we we're a very good running team, we had to pass for first downs as well. Many of the long drives were a byproduct of Luck leading the league in converting third and 8+ yards.

 

3. As mentioned in the article, our defense did not create many turnovers and we did not benefit from having a short field for scoring opportunities.

 

4. The last quarter of the season (seamingly all season) our O-line was completely decimated. This accounted for many of the three-and-outs that occured later in the year, as Luck had no time to throw.

 

With a new offensive scheme this year, I am interested in seeing where we improve, but hope that we keep the aggressive demeanor. I want defenses to be scared that we'll throw the ball 40+ yards down field.

[dw49]

Not that different from the post above this one , but IMO you need a good O Line to score in the redzone. Run the ball and protect the QB. It also helps if you have at least one big WR that will out fight CB's for the ball. The rest is on Arains and and if you want to put some blame on Luck too ... it's understandable.

[Superman]

Disclaimer: I acknowledge that our offensive line struggled on big downs, both pass protection and run blocking. That's a big part of what went wrong with our offense much of the year. I also acknowledge that Luck made mistakes with the football at times. Now that that's out of the way...

 

Too much empty backfield on third down and in the red zone. That's what I'd point to as things that the offense can fix. Starting field position and total number of drives is out of the offense's control. But we can make smarter play calls on third down and in the red zone, and as I stated several times throughout the season, I think a subpar offensive line is put in a bad position when you go empty backfield on a crucial down, or in the red zone. Not that we should NEVER go empty on third down or in the red zone, but I think we did it far too often.

 

We also threw on first down twice as much as we ran it. We were second in the league on first down passes, and second in the league on first down penalties (Green Bay was first in both categories). Incompletions on first down lead to harder third downs, and that hurts your yards/possession and points/possession.

 

In all that, we were seventh in third down percentage (42.8%), and second in total third down completions (229). Imagine how good we could have been if we were better on first down.

[throwing BBZ]

Yip, Arians has NO CLUE how to design pass plays that work in the RED ZONE.

Arians plays call for throwing the ball behind, and over the receivers, why did he ever get a job?

Fleenor was open in the end zone against the Ravens and someone threw a pitiful pass towards Reggie only 6 yards away.

Darn you BA!

[Superman]

Yip, Arians has NO CLUE how to design pass plays that work in the RED ZONE.

Arians plays call for throwing the ball behind, and over the receivers, why did he ever get a job?

Fleenor was open in the end zone against the Ravens and someone threw a pitiful pass towards Reggie only 6 yards away.

Darn you BA!

 

Are you just here to rant?

[NewEra]

No he just would empty the backfield to much showing obvious passing downs way to much

[Jules]

When I read threads like this sometimes I really do wonder if the Cardinals did us a favor in hiring Bruce Arians. I hate to say that though but sometimes our play calling left a lot to be desired......

[House]

When I read threads like this sometimes I really do wonder if the Cardinals did us a favor in hiring Bruce Arians. I hate to say that though but sometimes our play calling left a lot to be desired......

That's why Luck played so hard this year lol.

"I gotta get this guy a HC job or I'm not going to make it".

[Superman]

When I read threads like this sometimes I really do wonder if the Cardinals did us a favor in hiring Bruce Arians. I hate to say that though but sometimes our play calling left a lot to be desired......

 

I'm so thankful we had Arians this year, because we wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without him. But I do think his offensive system is flawed, and so I'm glad we were able to move on. I'm also glad he finally got a head coaching gig. He definitely deserved some serious consideration. I hope he gets a good quarterback and improves that offensive line.

[jwilli69]

I agree with most all of these posts.

1. We had a terrible oline and both Washington and Seattle had much much better olives.

2. Seattle had a pro bowl RB and Washington should have had one in the pro bowl as well. We had....

3. Seattle had a hawking top 3 defense that stopped and flipped field position a lot. Washington wasn't ranked as high but seemed to get better last 1/4 of the season. We had a bunch of rag tags playing in a new scheme.

4. Arians certainly schemed for the long ball but Luck did not always make good decisions in taking what the defense was giving you, he was always looking for the big route, I expect that to flip this year and beyond. I like the big routes especially when they work but I also like seeing them used for statement or for setting up a defense. 2nd and short wasn't set up well enough when we had it last year IMO. Needed more PAP off the 2&2 stuff.

As for the end zone scoring, that oline was a large part of the problem. Can't flood the end zone and leave our oline to block alone cause they couldn't do it. Improve that oline and allow the 2 TE's and wr's to confuse the defense in short space and we should see the redone scoring improve a lot. Also, the improving of the defense should make more stops and flip field position a little more, that will do wonders for the team as it opens up a play book instead of being more conservative inside your own 20.

[Balzer40]

I'm so thankful we had Arians this year, because we wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without him. But I do think his offensive system is flawed, and so I'm glad we were able to move on. I'm also glad he finally got a head coaching gig. He definitely deserved some serious consideration. I hope he gets a good quarterback and improves that offensive line.

 

 

 

If he don't do that, he will have a very short term as a head coach.