Vick Ballard tentative?

[Indyboy757]

Well unless Ballard show some life this season I hope we fix the line first and get a good starting back come this offseason.

Steven Jackson will be a FA this offseason!!! Although he get injured alot to.

[Gavin]

You do realize both of these couting reports are based off of what Brown and Ballard did in college.

of course they are, all scouting reports are

[Coltsman1788]

It's a combination. Our oline sucks and isn't opening many holes. However, last week Ballard was tentative back there and missed the few holes that they did open. Ballard is supposed to be a power guy...find the hole and plow. But he never got to plowing much less finding the hole. However, I am not quite ready to dismiss him after his 1st NFL start.

That said...as I watched the game last week, I found myself missing D. Brown as he at least brings the threat of the home run. Right now it seems we have no one out there with the speed to take it to the house on any given play.

[Gavin]

Well unless Ballard show some life this season I hope we fix the line first and get a good starting back come this offseason.

Steven Jackson will be a FA this offseason!!! Although he get injured alot to.

Jackson will be 30 also

[Mouthfire]

I have been on this issue for some time speaking of our backs and our oline, and what I have noticed is most fans feel that our run game is week due to our oline. I agree to an extent but I dont put all the blame on the line. For those who say Foster, Rice, Peterson even Berry Sander could'nt be productive behind this line please...Berry's line was just as bad as ours dont disgrace Berry by acting as if he became great due to his oline. Peterson, Rice or Foster would be much more productive then our backs, they all have great field vision, great balance and they dont get caught up in to much dancing at the line of scrimmage. They run north to south keep their heads up and hit the holes or make their own holes. With a upgraded line I truly believe our run game would still not be were it should. Brown has done a nice job so far this season but as I said before on this site he gets injured a lot, I just dont see Brown as an NFL starter although he earned a shot after last year, but by far he is the best back we have. Ballard and Carter are not the answer either. Ballard could be a 2nd or 3rd string back and Carters confidence is shot. Still lots of time this season for them to prove me wrong, but as fans will say we have to fix the line first, but I dont understant why we cant fix both the line and running game at the same time. What I dont want to see is we fix the line first and dont pick up a good back in the offseason or draft and everyone clearly sees what I've been saying, take a good look at other teams backs then look at ours, I am a huge Colts fan but a blind man can see the gap of talent between our backs and the other 31 teams, but I know its coming someone will get up here and try and justify why all the blame needs to go to the oline....

AKA if we do get a running back this upcoming offseason it will confirm to me that someone in the front office feels the same way I do....

Actually, I've been comparing Donald Brown's to Adrian Peterson's numbers all season. When you divy up his carries into when he's hit behind the LOS and when he makes it to the LOS cleanly, his numbers look comparable to Peterson's.

I've also compared him to Arian Foster. With the last stat breakdowns, Donald actually outperformed Arian Foster. He also picked up more yards after carry.

http://forums.colts....w/page__st__120

Here are some stats for these guys:

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Donald Brown vs Jags (Game 3)

When hit behind line of scrimmage: 6 rushes for 4 yards --> +0.66 YPC

When hit at line of scrimmage or beyond: 12 rushes for 58 yards --> +4.83 YPC

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Adrian Peterson vs the Colts

When hit behind line of scrimmage: 3 rushes for 1 yards --> +0.33 YPC

When hit at line of scrimmage or beyond: 12 rushes for 56 yards --> +4.67 YPC

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Arian Foster vs Titans

When hit behind line of scrimmage: 4 rushes for -5 yards --> -1.25 YPC

When hit at line of scrimmage or beyond: 20 rushes for 91 yards --> +4.55 YPC

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So, I really don't think that Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster would better than Brown behind our offensive line. The real difference is that Donald Brown is hit in the backfield nearly twice as much as the other two guys (~35% vs 20%), which brings down his YPC and overall numbers. In other words, he gets more of the bad carries (hit behind the LOS) than the good carries (hit at or after the LOS). That's really an offensive line issue.

[Mouthfire]

I also think you can make the case that Foster would actually do worse behind our line than Brown. Here are their yards after contact stats in Week 4.

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When Arian Foster is hit behind the LOS, he picks up an extra +0.25 yards after contact

When Arian Foster is hit at or after the LOS, he picks up an extra +2.05 yards after contact

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When Donald Brown is hit behind the LOS, he picks up an extra +2.2 yards after contact

When Donald Brown is hit at or after the LOS, he picks up an extra +4.5 yards after contact

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Contrary to what every one seems to think, Donald is actually very good at picking up yards after contact (when he's not caught flush on by the tackler right after getting the handoff). He actually outperforms Foster in this regard.

I suspect if Foster were hit in the backfield as much as the Colts line is allowing, his numbers would dramatically go down.

[IndyTrav]

I also think you can make the case that Foster would actually do worse behind our line than Brown. Here are their yards after contact stats in Week 4.

________________________________________________

When Arian Foster is hit behind the LOS, he picks up an extra +0.25 yards after contact

When Arian Foster is hit at or after the LOS, he picks up an extra +2.05 yards after contact

________________________________________________

When Donald Brown is hit behind the LOS, he picks up an extra +2.2 yards after contact

When Donald Brown is hit at or after the LOS, he picks up an extra +4.5 yards after contact

________________________________________________

Contrary to what every one seems to think, Donald is actually very good at picking up yards after contact (when he's not caught flush on by the tackler right after getting the handoff). He actually outperforms Foster in this regard.

I suspect if Foster were hit in the backfield as much as the Colts line is allowing, his numbers would dramatically go down.

This is one where stats can be misleading.....By your #'s its true, Brown has 'outperformed' Foster.....But then you get into real world application....

Foster gets the ball, ALOT, and he continues drives for his team consistently. Where as Brown, Ballard, whomever can not continue drives....Sure his yards after contact may be better, but when it comes to sustaining drives, and wearing out the defense Foster, Rice, Peterson etc are far and above us. And in most cases, many defenses know those runs are coming, and those RBs still get the ness. yardage...

But then you get into the 'eyeball' test. And while Ballard/Brown aren't scrubs by anymeans, just watching players like Foster/Peterson/Rice etc, you know they are just better.

Now if you want to compare Brown/Ballard to say, Amhad Bradshaw/Green-Ellis that would seem more fair. Similar talents, but better results for the other 2, but they do nothing more than what Brown/Ballard do, and would probably produce similar results under our circumstances....

[Mouthfire]

This is one where stats can be misleading.....By your #'s its true, Brown has 'outperformed' Foster.....But then you get into real world application....

Foster gets the ball, ALOT, and he continues drives for his team consistently. Where as Brown, Ballard, whomever can not continue drives....Sure his yards after contact may be better, but when it comes to sustaining drives, and wearing out the defense Foster, Rice, Peterson etc are far and above us. And in most cases, many defenses know those runs are coming, and those RBs still get the ness. yardage...

But then you get into the 'eyeball' test. And while Ballard/Brown aren't scrubs by anymeans, just watching players like Foster/Peterson/Rice etc, you know they are just better.

Now if you want to compare Brown/Ballard to say, Amhad Bradshaw/Green-Ellis that would seem more fair. Similar talents, but better results for the other 2, but they do nothing more than what Brown/Ballard do, and would probably produce similar results under our circumstances....

I actually disagree. The reason why Foster looks better is because he gets past the line of scrimmage so cleanly. If you watch the Texans offensive line play, they get so much push, they usually create a new line of scrimmage a yard or two down the line. He often isnt hit until he's 5 yards past the LOS. That's not the case with the Colts. With us, the line usually goes backwards, and there is so much penetration that our RBs frequently get hit right after getting the handoff. It's pretty hard to look good as a runner when that happens.

It's true that our RBs have not been sustaining drives as well as Foster/Peterson. But if you watch the game flow carefully, you'll see that it's because we're getting hit behind the LOS for a loss so frequently. That's the offensive line's fault.

Other RBs hit behind the LOS 15-20% of the time.

Colts RBs hit behind the LOS 35% of the time.

That's nearly twice as much. I think that tells you the story right there. If the offensive line were able to drop that down to 20% and cut down our runs for losses, I suspect we would be feeding Brown the ball a whole lot more.

[Smitto]

After re watching the game Ballard is a good RB he's strong quick and can make ppl miss... I think he should have a good game on Sunday...

I've been really high on Brown but he's done nothing si far to say he's the clear cut starter... If Ballard has a great game tomorrow then there's gonna be competition

[Gavin]

Theres 2 simple reasons why Brown can not be compared to guys like Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson for that matter and that is Brown does not get the ball nearly as much, you cant compare a running backs stats who has got the ball 113 times to a Back who has got the ball 60 times, even had Brown not missed last weeks game he would have nowhere near the carries Peterson has, but a telling stat is Peterson is only averaging .4 more ypc then Brown, you wanna see what Brown can then you give him an actual O Line that consists of real NFL caliber starters outside of Castonzo

[BOTT]

well, according to football outsiders the colts running backs get hit behind the line more than anybody in the league, minus the cardinals...who might have the worst oline of all time. and if i remember right the cards and colts were the runaway winners.

[PMan Escape Plan]

lets give him some time to show what hes got..

evaluation after one start is too early to declare a verdict