Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)

[Yoshinator]

Just now, AKB said:

I'm a little surprised on the pushback for the backup DT signing. 

 

are we upset about the player/deal or are we more upset about his overall strategy.

 

roster wise, we desperately needed a DT that could play relief pitcher to Buck and Grove. that was clear to see. so i'm leaning towards people being more upset with the overall same strat vs. the signing of the player in particular. 

I'm fine with the player (get a run stuffer behind Grover). I think it maybe a slight overpay, and now that we have AR, it's a bit frustrating we aren't getting a top outside player to build around him. We are interested in Sneed, but I don't think we get him (and it would cost draft pick(s). We also missed on Danielle Hunter to the Texans, so that's a bit frustrating. Other than that, maybe people are upset about Davis' PFF grade. 

[ColtStrong2013]

3 minutes ago, AKB said:

Good post, and I agree with most of it. 

 

But in short, you're basically saying Ballard is doing Ballard things. He has built and maintained the roster with this strategy since he took over and drafted Hooker. 

 

my argument is it's only gotten us .500 and we haven't won the division in a decade. so yeah, i guess with less words im saying the same thing, im ready for him to make a push too. do something different. 

We haven’t had a legit qb since 2020, and it was for just a year… 

 

I fully understand the frustration with the results. Ballard did something different last offseason: he replace Frank with a better coach that immediately brought accountability to the organization and drafted a qb in the top 5. That was a very different offseason. It led to a few plays away from a division title, even though the qb was on IR. Richardson’s injury might have set us back a bit. But it might not have either. Until they know what he looks like in a full season, I think it would be awfully hard to both a) invest big in players outside the organization and b) even convince them to come if the organization wanted to invest big. 
 

At this point, I’m not sure it would happen next year, unless we do serious damage and feel it’s a player or two away from a push. Can’t hardly knock the continued patience looking at it from that lens. There are a lot of unknowns. 

[Solid84]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yep that tracks... that's very high pressure to sack ratio... over 21%. If I had to guess most other teams are much lower than us - more in the 15% range...

Still have the spreadsheet and looked it up.

 

Median was 15% and average was 15.45%

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

I did the math on it in another thread some time ago.

 

The Colts were clear #1 with the Chiefs being 2nd at 19% and all other top teams being no higher than 17%.

Thanks... yeah. I knew those would be the ballpark figures, but I wasn't 100% certain. For example, I knew that for AR his 9% was one of the lowest ever and Levis was in the high 20s and it was one of the highest ever of highly drafted QBs, so my assumption was that for teams it would be somewhere in the middle... 

[Solid84]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

Yeah figured they would be mulling over keeping him now they have more space.

[AKB]

chiefs sure are taking their sweet time

[Yoshinator]

Tyus Bowser got released by the Ravens. Is he a scheme fit for the Colts that we could sign?

[Hawkeyecolt]

4 minutes ago, AKB said:

I'm a little surprised on the pushback for the backup DT signing. 

 

are we upset about the player/deal or are we more upset about his overall strategy.

 

roster wise, we desperately needed a DT that could play relief pitcher to Buck and Grove. that was clear to see. so i'm leaning towards people being more upset with the overall same strat vs. the signing of the player in particular. 

Exactly!  It's like they didn't notice the Colts getting gashed in the run game when Grover was suspended or when either Johnson or Bryan was on the field.  Everyone new DT depth was a must need.  Johnson was the lowest graded DT in the league for the people who care about PFF grades.  Davis' cap hit this year is $5million next year.  That's it.  Plus, there's a good chance that Johnson's $1 million is gone.  He showed almost no development from his rookie season.  Minimal at best.  The moment Grover or Buckner left the field last season the Colts were absolutely run over in the middle of the line because neither Johnson or Bryan could win a matchup.  Some just want to bash Ballard no matter what move he makes or doesn't make.  

[csmopar]

10 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I did the math on it in another thread some time ago.

 

The Colts were clear #1 with the Chiefs being 2nd at 19% and all other top teams being no higher than 17%.

Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused

[Solid84]

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

What are the odds on that bet as of March 2024?  AR taking us to the SB soon, after starting 17 games in his college and pro career?  I doubt that Ballard is looking at it that way. 

 

I don't think its reasonable to say that teams only win a lot when their good QB is on his rookie contract.  I think the next contract is where the dynasty takes hold.  Being consistently in contention during each day of the season and offseason (to the extent any team is in contention during the offseason) is what makes a team interesting.  

 

You first have to be in contention year after year.  Then splurge when the time is right.  The Colts haven't even entered that contention phase yet.  JMO.

Doesn't matter what the odds are. AR is a typical Ballard guy - raw and traitsy. If we wait for him to fully develop to make a decision on him we could be waiting 4 years completely wasting his rookie contract. It's not about aiming for the Super Bowl next season, it's about giving AR the best possible odds to succeed improving the team in any way we can. All Ballard has done so far is try to maintain the status quo. We're no better at rushing the passer, we're no better in pass defense, the offense is no more explosive.

 

I'm not talking about throwing the kitchensink at a Super Bowl run. I'm talking about improving the roster and Ballard willingly and knowingly limits himself by only using the draft.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Hawkeyecolt said:

Exactly!  It's like they didn't notice the Colts getting gashed in the run game when Grover was suspended or when either Johnson or Bryan was on the field.  Everyone new DT depth was a must need.  Johnson was the lowest graded DT in the league for the people who care about PFF grades.  Davis' cap hit this year is $5million next year.  That's it.  Plus, there's a good chance that Johnson's $1 million is gone.  He showed almost no development from his rookie season.  Minimal at best.  The moment Grover or Buckner left the field last season the Colts were absolutely run over in the middle of the line because neither Johnson or Bryan could win a matchup.  Some just want to bash Ballard no matter what move he makes or doesn't make.  

I think people bash Ballard because of his track record with the Colts. He continues to use the same method of building through the draft and we get nowhere, then we draft a possible franchise QB in Richardson and so far in FA, Ballard doesn't get aggressive like he said he would in his presser and build around him. We are impatient at this point and want to win. The status quo isn't working well, and there's no aggressiveness towards how Ballard operates to win. 

 

IMO, Ballard should assume Richardson is the guy, and build around him as if he is the guy. Otherwise, we will have to pay him before we are able to contend, and Ballard may be gone by then anyway. 

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused

Because our pressure numbers are extremely low. They are some of the lowest in the league and they don't correspond to what we got as sack production. Meaning - we were extremely lucky to get that many sacks when you consider how many pressures we got. It also means, in the future you might expect regression to the mean(i.e. much lower sack numbers, if our pass rush(pressures) doesn't improve considerably)

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I don't expect (or want really) Ballard to make the big splashes in FA. I do want him to make the medium splashes.

 

Ballard basically only uses FA for 1-2 year JAGs he hopes can fill the holes he can't fill in the draft. It's not working for us or anyone else. You NEED to plugs holes with reliable talent. Unless you never miss in the draft, solely using that to add talent isn't enough. No succesful team does what Ballard does.

 

Look at what the Chiefs are doing, the Ravens, the Bengals. They add talent in FA to supplement their draft hits. Sure, they are further along than us, but when Ballard has a tendency to draft raw, traitsy guys who need 2-4 years of development we're never going to get there, because if one is a miss we're once again behind those 2-4 years a new guy will take to develop. He needs to use FA to add talent when he misses.

Following up.  I think what you've described relative to players on their rookie contracts has it backwards.

 

IMO, the SB winning formula is to have the expensive elite franchise QB under contract...and then surround him with positional players that play very well under their rookie contracts.   Gs, DEs, WRs, etc.  who then look to get paid elsewhere and must be replenished through the draft.

 

As of March 2024, the Colts have positional players on top 5 contracts, but their QB on his rookie contract.  The roster is flipped from how normally successful teams have it.   And it will take about three years to rebalance it to correct....yawn in the meantime.   Unless Ballard finds a nut and gets lucky forging his own path between now and then.  JMO.

[stitches]

 

We are returning everybody... 

[Solid84]

Just now, csmopar said:

Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused

Sack rate is a function of sacks and total pressures - 60 sacks/281 total pressures = ~21%

 

It's a neat number, but like looking at sacks alone it doesn't really tell the whole story. It wants to be an efficiency number - how effective are we converting pressure to sacks? But, if you look at individual games last season you'd see we racked up most of our sacks against porouse Olines and bad QBs, so we weren't really efficient at converting pressure to sacks at all.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Another safety gone. Colts better get off their butts.

 

 

[JediXMan]

8 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

Tyus Bowser got released by the Ravens. Is he a scheme fit for the Colts that we could sign?

He’s been injured for the past two seasons and Ravens fans didn’t really care he got released.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Another safety gone. Colts better get off their butts.

 

 

I signed him in my Colts franchise on Madden to be our SS. Really like this guy.

[MFT5]

1 minute ago, csmopar said:

Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused

 

bc during games yu see the numbers not fairing relative to real time ..: thr scheme or player or what have makes for inconsistency on the field.

 

yu get a pressure but not the sack 

ex. stroud to collins en week 17 for huge gain 

 

or a combination of a sack but then chunk conversions that made the sack irrelevant… 

 

ite really bc gus sucks at creating a scheme that’s built to confuse & rattle the opponent

 

its cover 3 mix en man & pray 

[JediXMan]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Another safety gone. Colts better get off their butts.

 

 

At this point I don’t see the Colts getting the best S left plus Snead and people will be really mad lol.

[Dobbinblitz]

23 minutes ago, AKB said:

Good post, and I agree with most of it. 

 

But in short, you're basically saying Ballard is doing Ballard things. He has built and maintained the roster with this strategy since he took over and drafted Hooker. 

 

my argument is it's only gotten us .500 and we haven't won the division in a decade. so yeah, i guess with less words im saying the same thing, im ready for him to make a push too. do something different. 

Yes, this sums up exactly where I am at with Ballard. Hoping he has learned enough to do something different with constructing the Colts roster. I believe Steichen will be a force in this direction.

[w87r]

6 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

We are returning everybody... 

Couple minimums today.

 

Barely any cap ramifications.

 

I guess there is a small chance Harrison is $2-$3m? Probably just minimum though.

 

Let him see if he could find a deal. Couldn't, so we continue the project.

[Superman]

14 minutes ago, AKB said:

Good post, and I agree with most of it. 

 

But in short, you're basically saying Ballard is doing Ballard things. He has built and maintained the roster with this strategy since he took over and drafted Hooker. 

 

my argument is it's only gotten us .500 and we haven't won the division in a decade. so yeah, i guess with less words im saying the same thing, im ready for him to make a push too. do something different. 

 

The bolded isn't really a part of my argument. I think it makes sense to turn the page on anything that was happening prior to 2023.

 

And I don't really agree with the popular viewpoint of the Hooker pick; I think safety is an important position, and I think Hooker was an elite prospect. To me that's very different from signing run defenders when we can't cover the pass.

 

Also, I'm not asking Ballard to trade for Brian Burns or L'Jarius Sneed. I just would rather see the resources spent on run defenders spent on players who can help improve the pass rush and pass defense. I think that would make the Colts more competitive against the best teams in the NFL, the teams that have success in the playoffs. 

[Superman]

17 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Okay so then why is everyone saying our pass rush was lower tier in the league. I’m confused

 

Because it's not normal to convert 21% of your pressures to sacks. That conversion rate was most likely dependent on factors other than how good our pass rushers are, unless you can point to something that indicates that our guys are just abnormally better at converting pressures to sacks. And that would be ironic, because our guys are below average at getting pressures in the first place.

[w87r]

Something to keep in mind, with these last (2) re-signings, the Colts are up to 71 players on the roster.

 

With (7) draft picks, and more than likely to be more, we are running out of roster spots. Granted most can be released at anytime to sign someone.

 

So 

 

71+7

 

78

 

Leaves us with 12-13 roster spots(not sure if Dabo is still a free spot, I think he is though)

 

So 13 spots left at most, about the amount of yearly UDFA signed.

 

So we have a few moved left, not a lot though. Just have to make them count.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, w87r said:

Something to keep in mind, with these last (2) re-signings, the Colts are up to 71 players on the roster.

 

With (7) draft picks, and more than likely to be more, we are running out of roster spots. Granted most can be released at anytime to sign someone.

 

So 

 

71+7

 

78

 

Leaves us with 12-13 roster spots(not sure if Dabo is still a free spot, I think he is though)

 

So 13 spots left at most, about the amount of yearly UDFA signed.

 

So we have a few moved left, not a lot though. Just have to make them count.

I would guess we end up with 9-10 players in the draft just by how Ballard operates. 

Mike Williams released. Wonder who gets him?

[VikingsFanInChennai]

19 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

He’s been injured for the past two seasons and Ravens fans didn’t really care he got released.

Yeah, remember seeing him often in inactive report on game days. 

[Yoshinator]

I would release Mo-Allie Cox. That would save $6 million and give us an extra roster spot. Give us a better chance to get a couple FAs and if Bowers falls, then we can draft him if we want.

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I would release Mo-Allie Cox. That would save $6 million and give us an extra roster spot. Give us a better chance to get a couple FAs and if Bowers falls, then we can draft him if we want.

Just can't see them bringing him back.

 

But there isn't any hurry on our end.

 

Would help him to get on the market as quickly as possible to find a job though.

[Goatface Killah]

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Because it's not normal to convert 21% of your pressures to sacks. That conversion rate was most likely dependent on factors other than how good our pass rushers are, unless you can point to something that indicates that our guys are just abnormally better at converting pressures to sacks. And that would be ironic, because our guys are below average at getting pressures in the first place.

Why do you say this like its a fact?

 

The Kansas City Chiefs generated 73 unblocked pressures last year. Thats scheme, not talent. Scheme and situational football are a big part of this. Its hard to scheme up pressure when you are protecting a young secondary and its very hard to apply pressure on 3rd and short. We were very poor vs the run and just did not put ourselves in position to pressure with 4 guys. We need 3rd and 6 ir more to be effective there.

 

So comparing them to a team like KC whose stats are heavily inflated by a masterful DC scheming up blitzes is absolutely not fair to our guys. We have some very good football players on that DL. Is Gus on Spags level? No but not many are. 

 

I think it is pretty wild to suggest the team set a franchise record in sacks on pure luck.

 

The truth is somewhere in the middle. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Watch for Colt pressers today on the app because the guys we extended did pressers this morning.

[Patrick Miller]

Colts need to snag Mike Williams.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[Hawkeyecolt]

37 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I think people bash Ballard because of his track record with the Colts. He continues to use the same method of building through the draft and we get nowhere, then we draft a possible franchise QB in Richardson and so far in FA, Ballard doesn't get aggressive like he said he would in his presser and build around him. We are impatient at this point and want to win. The status quo isn't working well, and there's no aggressiveness towards how Ballard operates to win. 

 

IMO, Ballard should assume Richardson is the guy, and build around him as if he is the guy. Otherwise, we will have to pay him before we are able to contend, and Ballard may be gone by then anyway. 

It seems to me that re-signing their own players and addressing the defense in FA was and should be the plan.  Getting AR more weapons should come from a loaded draft.   Re-signing a top 15 receiver  was important for AR's development.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, Hawkeyecolt said:

It seems to me that re-signing their own players and addressing the defense in FA was and should be the plan.  Getting AR more weapons should come from a loaded draft.   Re-signing a top 15 receiver  was important for AR's development.

To me this off-season has been the most obvious to predict what Ballard will do. 

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, Patrick Miller said:

Colts need to snag Mike Williams.

They have a Mike Williams WR in Pittman.

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

Very happy for Lewis.  He earned that contract extension.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Not sure if I saw this posted here earlier:

I really don't get Ballard... 

 

They lost Moss and need a backup running back which is what Dillon is.  What’s not to get?

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Goatface Killah said:

Why do you say this like its a fact?

 

The Kansas City Chiefs generated 73 unblocked pressures last year. Thats scheme, not talent. Scheme and situational football are a big part of this. Its hard to scheme up pressure when you are protecting a young secondary and its very hard to apply pressure on 3rd and short. We were very poor vs the run and just did not put ourselves in position to pressure with 4 guys. We need 3rd and 6 ir more to be effective there.

 

So comparing them to a team like KC whose stats are heavily inflated by a masterful DC scheming up blitzes is absolutely not fair to our guys. We have some very good football players on that DL. Is Gus on Spags level? No but not many are. 

 

I think it is pretty wild to suggest the team set a franchise record in sacks on pure luck.

 

The truth is somewhere in the middle. 

 

It's not normal to convert 21% of pressures to sacks. I think that's pretty much fact. Everything else I said is open to debate, which is why I said 'most likely.' I also never said the team got 51 sacks on pure luck, right? 

 

But again, unless we can come up with some kind of explanation for why our pass rushers should be expected to convert pressures at a higher than normal rate, then we should acknowledge that 21% is not sustainable. 

 

I'm not sure where the comparison with the Chiefs is coming from.

[Yoshinator]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeyecolt said:

It seems to me that re-signing their own players and addressing the defense in FA was and should be the plan.  Getting AR more weapons should come from a loaded draft.   Re-signing a top 15 receiver  was important for AR's development.

The problem with the plan though is that Ballard can't draft well enough to make up for the fact that he isn't utilizing FA well enough. It just isn't good enough. Even the Chiefs sign big FAs and use the FA market, and they have Patrick Mahomes. Signing our own is fine, but we have to add a couple big pieces to it. Hopefully Ballard does in some way this year in FA.