Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[RollerColt]

21 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

All I am trying to say we as fans have our opinions. Let’s just remember there is a lot we don’t see behind closed doors. Like interviews ect. Let’s just try and trust they will make the right decision it’s up to Ballard and the team to decide if one stands out more then the others.

I'll be rooting hard for whoever we get. I see positives and negatives with all three of them. None of them are sure fires, but I also don't see them as guaranteed busts either. Good coaching, the right positive environment, an adaptable offensive scheme that plays to their strengths, and the right mentality between the ears will go a long way towards their success. 

[C_Lew]

12 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Kyler Murray and Tua's injury history has scared fans and GMs (possibly) enough to take him out of the No.1 pick, IMO. It is not a factor of IF you will get hit, it is WHEN you do and what happens then? It is a big boys league.

 

You are taking a 2 year starter and wanting him to be a 10 year starter at least, so durability has to be a high concern, based on recent historical comparisons.

That’s a fair point. I just think injuries can happen to anyone. Will Levis, for example, is much larger than Bryce. Will Levis also missed more games over the past 2 years than Young.

[Fluke_33]

5 minutes ago, C_Lew said:

That’s a fair point. I just think injuries can happen to anyone. Will Levis, for example, is much larger than Bryce. Will Levis also missed more games over the past 2 years than Young.

Thats interesting.  We all know what it is like to have a qb that doesn't avoid hits.  Maybe Young doesn't get hit much.  The problem is though when he does by a 300 pounder it will be like spreading butter on bread.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Do you guys think DaK is a good comparison to Stroud? I keep seeing that comparison.

[C_Lew]

1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

Thats interesting.  We all know what it is like to have a qb that doesn't avoid hits.  Maybe Young doesn't get hit much.  The problem is though when he does by a 300 pounder it will be like spreading butter on bread.

Playing style is certainly a part of it. Levis is much more aggressive in seeking contact when he runs versus when Young runs. But, let me assure you of this: Young definitely got popped several times during his 2 year tenure in the SEC haha.

[Nickster]

29 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

I'm not giving up multiple high draft picks for Daniel Jones.

I think I might.  The dude looks like a stud in the two games I've watched, (us and this playoff game)

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, boo2202 said:

If Stroud or Levi’s turns out to be Daniel Jones, are you guys ok with that? 

Absolutely.

[danlhart87]

Daniel Jones is playing well now because he has good coaching 

 

I don't care to trade up for anybody but we probably will! I will be more enthusiastic about that if Colts get great coaching. 

[Nickster]

10 minutes ago, C_Lew said:

Playing style is certainly a part of it. Levis is much more aggressive in seeking contact when he runs versus when Young runs. But, let me assure you of this: Young definitely got popped several times during his 2 year tenure in the SEC haha.

I'll take you word for it, but the only game i saw Young play was the bowl game and that was a colossal mismatch and Young looked good, dropping back eating sandwiches and hitting wide open pass catchers, but just about any QB with NFL arm talent would be able to do that.

 

You are saying he had pressure and stuff he dealt with in a couple games?  that's always my question for guys playing for power houses who roll most opponents.  It makes them very hard to evaluate. 

 

I will also say he doesn't look like an NFL QB.  I don't care about short so much, but he's not just skinny/lean but he also has a very narrow body frame too.  

That said with the rules the way they are today if ever a slightly built guy was going hold up in The League, it's now. 

 

But the dude doesn't look physically like an NFL QB.  All the other short guys were bigger body types. 

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, boo2202 said:

If Stroud or Levi’s turns out to be Daniel Jones, are you guys ok with that? 

Oh god yeah.  I'd give them any two players we have along with the 4th pick too. 

[danlhart87]

19 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Do you guys think DaK is a good comparison to Stroud? I keep seeing that comparison.

 

It threw me off the other day I saw Stroud compared to Justin Herbert 

 

Gonna have to look closer to see how accurate no pun intended that is

[BProland85]

1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

 

It threw me off the other day I saw Stroud compared to Justin Herbert 

 

Gonna have to look closer to see how accurate no pun intended that is

I’d say he’s closer to Herbert than Prescott. Stroud looks to have a slightly stronger arm than Prescott, and better accuracy as well. 

[danlhart87]

The NFL is definitely what have you done for me lately league

 

The Daniel Jones question is only plausible now because he has been playing great but if you asked this is first couple years then the answers would be a toss up.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

 

Well Doug.  I can tell you I don't even try to rate CFB QBs anymore.  It's not something I've been good at, and frankly I don't know if anyone really is.  Did KC REALLY know Mahomes was going to be this good?  Maybe.  But teams more often than not pick the wrong guy or spend too much.  Plus I watch very little CFB.

 

SO I can't really answer that question because I didn't consider them in the 1st place, if that makes sense.  I can tell you I had doubts about Burrow because of the fairly limited college career and I didn't think Tua was going to be good at all.

I really like Tua now. Very accurate.  Unfortunatly, he keeps getting his head pounded awkwardly.

 

 

I agree, I'm not getting into the Stroud vs Levis debate that will sure to happen....or if the next tier of QBs are worthy.  My personal opinion is that I would not draft Young because of his size, but every other QB analysis metric I'm not going to discuss.  

 

IIRC, Burrow was though to be the number one pick at the time not necessarily because he was head and shoulders above Tua and Herbert, but because of the local-boy Ohio factor having grown up in OH....and was willing and eager to play for CIN.  

 

Not my personal analysis, but what I read at the time is that all three were pretty much in the same bucket, each having some demerits keeping them from perfect, and therefore there was no movement by any team to get any of them.  Teams just picked them as they fell to them.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Lance is probably what you meant. SF continues to be active though. They traded a 2, 3 and 4 for CMC. They have drafted well for DL talent and they have invested in OL and pass catchers with a great play caller in Shanahan. 

 

If Lance doesn't work out, they move on to the next QB that elevates the guys around him. That is the thing with draft picks, you will eventually get enough of them back. The true question becomes, when do you give up on the QB you drafted to move on? NYG did not with Daniel Jones and earned the rewards. Matt Nagy wasn't all that, we are finding out, right? Shanahan is making Purdy look great.

 

Rams gave up all those draft picks for FAs and all they got was a SB to show for it.   It depends on where your team is at, to consider the risk vs reward, ultimately. Rams had the pieces, they needed the extra oomph and got it with Stafford. We thought they gave up too much but if that gets you a SB with a few years of mediocrity and then back into contention again, is it worth it? I would think so.

 

Plus, it also depends on what the team picking No.1 is asking for. If the Bears ask for a future No.1 and our current No.2, it would be hard for me to give up both. I would give the future No.1, and throw in a Day 3 pick and try to make the trade.

Yeah Lance.  They are loaded with talent but my point is they won't be able to keep it all when they start redoing salaries.   And then they won't have resources to pay guys.   Guys on high salaries even when great don't bring back the biggest returns.  

 

I think their window is going to close quicker than people think if they don't get it done this year or next.  There is no way they can pay Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk (who will get a mega contract from someone), Williams, Bosa, CMAC, Ward and (insert FA QB here).  They could get a ton for Bosa because EDGE talent like that is as rare as elite QBs, and they could probably get a hefty return on AIyuk on a rookie.  They almost certainly would never trade Bosa though and the Aiyuk thing on a rookie would be hard for them to do.  Kittle will get a mint as well,  and if Lance is good, he will be off his rookie contract soon.

 

The solution for them is Purdy is a stud.  I just think he's living large and he will come back to Earth.  If not though, then the above concerns are irrelevant to a large degree. 

[C_Lew]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I'll take you word for it, but the only game i saw Young play was the bowl game and that was a colossal mismatch and Young looked good, dropping back eating sandwiches and hitting wide open pass catchers, but just about any QB with NFL arm talent would be able to do that.

 

You are saying he had pressure and stuff he dealt with in a couple games?  that's always my question for guys playing for power houses who roll most opponents.  It makes them very hard to evaluate. 

 

I will also say he doesn't look like an NFL QB.  I don't care about short so much, but he's not just skinny/lean but he also has a very narrow body frame too.  

That said with the rules the way they are today if ever a slightly built guy was going hold up in The League, it's now. 

 

But the dude doesn't look physically like an NFL QB.  All the other short guys were bigger body types. 

Oh yeah, Bama definitely outclassed Kansas St as far as talent level across the board. But to Young’s credit, with nothing to play for, he came out and handled business. The guy didn’t even have to play the game, he was a top 3 pick no matter what.

 

And again, with John Metchie and Jameson Williams last year and a better OL, the 2021 season was hard to judge because the people around him were so good. But, he delivered. 4,872 yards, 47 TDs and 7 picks. He did exactly what you’re supposed to do when you are surrounded by elite talent.

 

This season, though, he pretty much was the offense. He had a shaky line, his WRs other than Jacorey Brooks were freshmen. He did have an elite RB in Gibbs. Because of the drop in the amount of talent around him, his numbers dropped. He still had a wonderful season, though. 3,328 yards, 32 TDs and 5 picks over 12 games. 
 

I know I’m really selling this guy, but I believe in him. I also know if we don’t trade to 1 for him, Houston will take him and we’ll have to play against him for the next 15 years.

[rockywoj]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

I agree, I'm not getting into the Stroud vs Levis debate that will sure to happen....or if the next tier of QBs are worthy.  My personal opinion is that I would not draft Young because of his size, but every other QB analysis metric I'm not going to discuss.  

 

IIRC, Burrow was though to be the number one pick at the time not necessarily because he was head and shoulders above Tua and Herbert, but because of the local-boy Ohio factor having grown up in OH....and was willing and eager to play for CIN.  

 

Not my personal analysis, but what I read at the time is that all three were pretty much in the same bucket, each having some demerits keeping them from perfect, and therefore there was no movement by any team to get any of them.  Teams just picked them as they fell to them.

Ballard is on record as saying many times that he does not believe in “forcing” picks. Based on his record, he is much more likely to let the chips fall as they may. That being said, he is also on record as saying he would not hesitate to do what it takes to move up to take a guy that they really like if he’s there.  
 

Ergo, at the end of the day, if the Colts make a move to move up, it’s because there’s a particular guy that they evaluate as being well above the others. If they make no such move, however, then that clearly indicates they figure there’s not much separating the top prospects. 

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah Lance.  They are loaded with talent but my point is they won't be able to keep it all when they start redoing salaries.   And then they won't have resources to pay guys.   Guys on high salaries even when great don't bring back the biggest returns.  

 

I think their window is going to close quicker than people think if they don't get it done this year or next.  There is no way they can pay Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk (who will get a mega contract from someone), Williams, Bosa, CMAC, Ward and (insert FA QB here).  They could get a ton for Bosa because EDGE talent like that is as rare as elite QBs, and they could probably get a hefty return on AIyuk on a rookie.  They almost certainly would never trade Bosa though and the Aiyuk thing on a rookie would be hard for them to do.  Kittle will get a mint as well,  and if Lance is good, he will be off his rookie contract soon.

 

The solution for them is Purdy is a stud.  I just think he's living large and he will come back to Earth.  If not though, then the above concerns are irrelevant to a large degree. 

 

Every team has to pay the piper at some point.

 

That is why the Chiefs spread Mahomes' $450 mil. salary across 10 years, gives them flexibility, I expect Bengals to do the same with Burrow. Then, the Chiefs took other teams' castoffs like JuJu, MVS (and surprisingly Kadarius Toney that the Giants let go) while sprinkling their own draft picks in Hardman and Skyy Moore to make it work with an elite QB and play caller. The Bengals have 2 No.1 WRs they have to pay, Higgins and Chase and that is when they will have to make choices elsewhere on D and other places. That is why the Chiefs made a conscious decision to let go of Tyreek Hill and I have to applaud them for that. 

 

 

1 minute ago, rockywoj said:

Ballard is on record as saying many times that he does not believe in “forcing” picks. Based on his record, he is much more likely to let the chips fall as they may. That being said, he is also on record as saying he would not hesitate to do what it takes to move up to take a guy that they really like if he’s there.  
 

Ergo, at the end of the day, if the Colts make a move to move up, it’s because there’s a particular guy that they evaluate as being well above the others. If they make no such move, however, then that clearly indicates they figure there’s not much separating the top prospects. 

 

In other words, actions speak louder than words.  

[Nickster]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I agree, I'm not getting into the Stroud vs Levis debate that will sure to happen....or if the next tier of QBs are worthy.  My personal opinion is that I would not draft Young because of his size, but every other QB analysis metric I'm not going to discuss.  

 

IIRC, Burrow was though to be the number one pick at the time not necessarily because he was head and shoulders above Tua and Herbert, but because of the local-boy Ohio factor having grown up in OH....and was willing and eager to play for CIN.  

 

Not my personal analysis, but what I read at the time is that all three were pretty much in the same bucket, each having some demerits keeping them from perfect, and therefore there was no movement by any team to get any of them.  Teams just picked them as they fell to them.

Yeah without making a prediction ( I've said these things in other threads), Young is so small. Skinny and a narrow frame and doesn't look like a NFL Qb.  Maybe a corner.  But with QB protection rules size probably matters less than it used to.  But God he's small.

 

Stroud looked great in the Semi under at times intense pressure.  But I am skeptical of Bama and OSU Qbs. lol. 

 

Levis has a Marino release and Marino was pretty bad his senior year too.  He dropped to the bottom of the 1st.  Whether he will be good or not is beyond me, but 30 second of his vid posted here the other day had me thinking Wow.  Look at that. 

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, C_Lew said:

Oh yeah, Bama definitely outclassed Kansas St as far as talent level across the board. But to Young’s credit, with nothing to play for, he came out and handled business. The guy didn’t even have to play the game, he was a top 3 pick no matter what.

 

And again, with John Metchie and Jameson Williams last year and a better OL, the 2021 season was hard to judge because the people around him were so good. But, he delivered. 4,872 yards, 47 TDs and 7 picks. He did exactly what you’re supposed to do when you are surrounded by elite talent.

 

This season, though, he pretty much was the offense. He had a shaky line, his WRs other than Jacorey Brooks were freshmen. He did have an elite RB in Gibbs. Because of the drop in the amount of talent around him, his numbers dropped. He still had a wonderful season, though. 3,328 yards, 32 TDs and 5 picks over 12 games. 
 

I know I’m really selling this guy, but I believe in him. I also know if we don’t trade to 1 for him, Houston will take him and we’ll have to play against him for the next 15 years.

 

I'm just saying man.  Shaky to a Bama fan is quite a bit different than shaky to a Purdue fan lol. Shaky for Bama guys means we only have 2 1st rounders on the line not 4. 

 

But yeah we will see on the kid. 

[rockywoj]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah without making a prediction ( I've said these things in other threads), Young is so small. Skinny and a narrow frame and doesn't look like a NFL Qb.  Maybe a corner.  But with QB protection rules size probably matters less than it used to.  But God he's small.

 

Stroud looked great in the Semi under at times intense pressure.  But I am skeptical of Bama and OSU Qbs. lol. 

 

Levis has a Marino release and Marino was pretty bad his senior year too.  He dropped to the bottom of the 1st.  Whether he will be good or not is beyond me, but 30 second of his vid posted here the other day had me thinking Wow.  Look at that. 

When I hear somebody is Marino like, with a Marino like release, I drool. 

[chad72]

8 minutes ago, C_Lew said:

Oh yeah, Bama definitely outclassed Kansas St as far as talent level across the board. But to Young’s credit, with nothing to play for, he came out and handled business. The guy didn’t even have to play the game, he was a top 3 pick no matter what.

 

And again, with John Metchie and Jameson Williams last year and a better OL, the 2021 season was hard to judge because the people around him were so good. But, he delivered. 4,872 yards, 47 TDs and 7 picks. He did exactly what you’re supposed to do when you are surrounded by elite talent.

 

This season, though, he pretty much was the offense. He had a shaky line, his WRs other than Jacorey Brooks were freshmen. He did have an elite RB in Gibbs. Because of the drop in the amount of talent around him, his numbers dropped. He still had a wonderful season, though. 3,328 yards, 32 TDs and 5 picks over 12 games. 
 

I know I’m really selling this guy, but I believe in him. I also know if we don’t trade to 1 for him, Houston will take him and we’ll have to play against him for the next 15 years.

 

Brees never won his division all 15 years, did he, with Sean Payton? This is assuming Bryce Young goes and pairs up with Sean Payton with the Texans for 15 years like you say he most likely would if we go a different direction.

 

He will get his, we will get ours, the Colts better buckle up if they have Pederson, Payton and Vrabel all coaching in the same division.

[Dobbinblitz]

44 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Do you guys think DaK is a good comparison to Stroud? I keep seeing that comparison.

Stroud also gets comparisons to Jared Goff. Stroud has better feet, and is a better athlete than Goff who was taken #1 in 2016. Stroud having a higher floor and ceiling.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, Dobbinblitz said:

Stroud also gets comparisons to Jared Goff. Stroud has better feet, and is a better athlete than Goff who was taken #1 in 2016. Stroud having a higher floor and ceiling.

DaK can move pretty well that’s why I think he might be closer to DaK.  

[C_Lew]

8 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

I'm just saying man.  Shaky to a Bama fan is quite a bit different than shaky to a Purdue fan lol. Shaky for Bama guys means we only have 2 1st rounders on the line not 4. 

 

But yeah we will see on the kid. 

Oh I understand completely!

 

6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Brees never won his division all 15 years, did he, with Sean Payton? This is assuming Bryce Young goes and pairs up with Sean Payton with the Texans for 15 years like you say he most likely would if we go a different direction.

 

He will get his, we will get ours, the Colts better buckle up if they have Pederson, Payton and Vrabel all coaching in the same division.

Yeah, I’d just prefer if we had him vs having to play against him. I know he’s small and I get all the concerns. But keep in mind, this was the #1 player in the country coming out of HS and is now likely to be the #1 pick coming out of college. He’s special.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

27 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

 

It threw me off the other day I saw Stroud compared to Justin Herbert 

 

Gonna have to look closer to see how accurate no pun intended that is

If he can extend more plays maybe. But I think Herbert has a stronger arm.

[Nickster]

11 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

When I hear somebody is Marino like, with a Marino like release, I drool. 

Well so did and Jeff George and Ryan Leaf and the arm strength to boot lol.   

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

35 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Daniel Jones is playing well now because he has good coaching 

 

I don't care to trade up for anybody but we probably will! I will be more enthusiastic about that if Colts get great coaching. 

I think he has a coach that understands jones strengths much better then his previous coach did. Also realizes they lack weapons so leans  on jones running ability more.

 

I kind of hope they get eliminated this week so we can interview their OC. He had a lot of experience and I think he would be such a good hire.

[rockywoj]

Just now, Nickster said:

Well so did and Jeff George and Ryan Leaf and the arm strength to boot lol.   

George, yes, Leaf, no. Marino is one of the greatest ever! That is why I drool at Marino comparisons.  I do not drool at Leaf comparisons.  George had incredible talent, but was not a leader by personality. 

[chad72]

12 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

Stroud also gets comparisons to Jared Goff. Stroud has better feet, and is a better athlete than Goff who was taken #1 in 2016. Stroud having a higher floor and ceiling.

 

That is coming from an angle of "uncomfortable with pressure down the middle". Once the OL became Top 10, Goff is looking like a great QB, isn't he? However, if the OL breaks down, he is pedestrian compared to a Burrow or Allen or Mahomes, that is the difference.

 

Of the 4, the one who can escape the best and throw under pressure the best, should our OL not make a huge comeback is........

....

..

..

..

wait for it..

..

...

...

..

..

..

someone most of us are not fans of...

....

...

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

Bryce Young.  

[C_Lew]

For the record, I’d be content if we could get Stroud while staying at 4. I like his game a lot, too. Levis probably has the most potential of all the incoming QBs, but will also take the longest to develop, IMO.

[ADnum1]

Dak was a 4th round pick

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

George, yes, Leaf, no. Marino is one of the greatest ever! That is why I drool at Marino comparisons.  I do not drool at Leaf comparisons.  George had incredible talent, but was not a leader by personality. 

Look at a Leaf video.  He had as strong an arm as there was and was very very quick with the release. 

 

I think one could make an argument with a very straight face that Jeff George had the greatest arm talent in the history of the game. 

 

Point talent is that arm talent does not a NFL QB make. 

[danlhart87]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

That is coming from an angle of "uncomfortable with pressure down the middle".

 

Of the 4, the one who can escape the best and throw under pressure the best, should our OL not make a huge comeback is........

....

..

..

..

wait for it..

..

...

...

..

..

..

someone most of us are not fans of...

....

...

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

Bryce Young.  

Young is the best overall

[chad72]

Just now, PRnum1 said:

Dak was a 4th round pick

 

Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder.

 

There are misses at the QB level for every round, lol  

[danlhart87]

Young ability to keep his eyes downfield even when pressured is on another level.

 

He's very good under pressure which is something Stroud has struggled with

[rockywoj]

Just now, Nickster said:

Look at a Leaf video.  He had as strong an arm as there was and was very very quick with the release. 

 

I think one could make an argument with a very straight face that Jeff George had the greatest arm talent in the history of the game. 

I have not looked back, but to my recollection during the Manning vs Leaf debate, a debate in which I was FIRMLY in the Manning corner, I do not recall ever hearing Leaf compared to Marino.  I can’t say my memory is not flawed, but nope, never heard Marino mentioned as a Leaf comp. 

[C_Lew]

Just now, danlhart87 said:

Young ability to keep his eyes downfield even when pressured is on another level.

 

He's very good under pressure which is something Stroud has struggled with

Thanks, I hate to keep on and keep sounding like a fanboy haha.

[ADnum1]

3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder.

 

There are misses at the QB level for every round, lol  

Are we saying Stroud looks like a 4th rounder ? lol

[chad72]

Just now, PRnum1 said:

Are we saying Stroud looks like a 4th rounder ? lol

 

No, I am saying you have hits and misses in every round for QBs