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Indy@Pitt Matchup, Positional Outlook, & PFF Grades

EastStreet

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Anecdotal folks, probably not for you. Stat heads, enjoy.

 

A quick look at the match ups. Also position info with injury impacts as well as PFF grades.

 

Colts O vs Pitt D

Colts total O: 18th (345.9 YPG) vs Pitt total D: 10th (336.6)

Note: Only 10ish yards difference so really a wash.

Colts passing O: 22nd (217.4) vs Pitt passing D: 13th (233.6)

Note: Pitt gives up more than JB produces on average

Colts yards per pass attempt O:  Tied for 22nd (6.9) vs Pitt D YPPA: 14th (7.3)

Note: Same here 

Colts rushing O: 11th (128.4) vs Pitt rushing D: 15th (103.0)

Note: I doubt Mack has a big game, but we should have decent success.

Colts PTS PG O: 16th (22.6) vs Pitt PTS PG D: 13th (20.7)

Note: Little advantage to Pitt, so we may need more than a conservative game plan.

Colts QB sacked: Tied for 22nd (1.6 per game) vs Pitt Sacks: Tied for 6th (3.4 per game)

Note: JB might have a bad day if he can't get his time-to-throw down

Colts QB INT'd: Tied for 24th (0.43 per game) vs Pitt INTs: Tied for 2nd (1.4 per game)

Note: JB is conservative, Pitt is opportunistic. Could be bad news forcing to TY.

 

Colts D vs Pitt O

Colts total D: 15th (349.4) vs Pitt total O: 28th (293.3)

Note: Their total O is pretty bad. Our D isn't great, but we should be fine here.

Colts passing D: 15th (238.1) vs Pitt passing O: 26th (205.1)

Note: Rudolph has one of the worst QBRs in the league at 42.3, so our passing D shouldn't struggle.

Colts YPPA D : 22nd (7.7) vs Pitt passing YPPA O: 28th (6.6)

Note: We're not great here, but they are pretty bad. 

Colts rushing D: 20th (111.3) vs Pitt rushing O: 24th (88.1)

Note: Same here

Colts PTS PG D: 14th (21.6) vs Pitt PTS PG O: 19th (21.4)

Note: Pretty equal here. Nothing to worry about so long as we don't turn the ball over

Colts sacks: Tied for 16th (2.71 PG) vs Pitt QB sacked: 32nd (1.0 sack per game)

Note: Pitt is the least sacked team in the league. They are much better in pass pro than in the run.

Colts INTs: Tied for 22nd (0.57 PG) vs Pitt QB INT'd: 18th (0.86 PG)

Note: Rudolf is a bit better than Pitt as a whole. Only 3 INTs in the 4 games he's started (0.75 PG)

 

 

Pitt QB - Mason Rudolph

While you can tell they are being very conservative with Rudolph, he does have big play capability. He led all NCAA QBs in yards in 2017.  That said, he's a "system" QB that is not well rounded. While he can throw it deep, he's been known to float balls and toss some ducks. He was rarely asked to roll out, and he's struggled a lot under pressure. I expect Pitt to be conservative with him, but if not, I don't know what to expect.

PFF Grade: 48.5 (bad)

 

Pitt WRs and TEs

Overall an OK WR group. They'd be better with a better QB. They're relying on some young guys and none are very big. JuJu is the big name, but Johnson (rookie) is doing decent and is #2 in yards. He's quicker than fast and good in the open field. Was a stud at a smaller college (Toledo) and was a 3rd rounder. Washington, who was assumed to be the #2, is decent, and was a teammate of Rudolph's at OK State. Both Johnson and Washington are sub 6 foot. Their TEs are very mediocre, but McDonald is capable of a good game. In short, new/young QB with young raw WRs and mediocre TEs. Not very scary. 

PFF Grades:

WR1 JuJu: 71.1 (barely above starter)

WR3 Johnson: 62.9 (back-up)

WR2 Washington: 58.7 (replaceable)

TE McDonald: 54.2 (replaceable)

 

Pitt RBs

Conner, their RB1 is a pretty decent RB, but has an injury history. MCL in college, and tweaked his knee earlier this year and has been a little limited up till last week. He ended up hurting his shoulder last game and has not practiced this week (questionable). He's a threat both inside and out. He's 3rd in receiving yards too so him being gimpy is a double whammy. Benny Snell, their RB3 (2nd in yards) just had surgery to trim his meniscus and is expected to be on the sideline (listed as doubtful though). Their RB2 Samuels isn't much to worry about in the running game (or at least shouldn't be). He's probably more of a threat in the passing game. He's 6ft, 225lbs, and played TE, RB, FB, and WR in college lol... He's a classic tweener, when they really need him to be a good RB. And even he is listed on the injury report (knee) but has been FP everday. In short, if we can't stop their gimpy running attack, something is really wrong with our D.

PFF Grades:

RB1: Conner: 76.1 (starter)

RB2: Samuels: 57.2 (replaceable)

RB3: Snell: 67.8 (backup)

 

Pitt OL

Overall, they've been better than expected in pass pro, worse than expected in run blocking. Their LT Alejandro Villanueva is one of my favorite non-Colt NFL players (google him and you'll understand). While I love the guy, he's not dominant. Their LG Ramon Foster who has been pretty good in the past, is having a bad year. He's also in concussion protocol (has not practiced this week and Questionable) so good chance he doesn't start. Pitt only has 2 true OGs on the roster, so likely C/G Finney will get the nod if Foster can't go. Pouncey, their C isn't having a great year either and he's a bit gimpy. Their RT and RG are arguably better than the left side, and graded better in PFF. In short, with their running game hobbled badly, we should be able to tee off on their OL in passing downs, especially in the middle right (our right). DTs could have a good day, and look for DE twists and LB blitzes. 

PFF Grades:

LT Villanueva: 70.2 (barely a starter)

LG Foster: 58.7 (replaceable)

LG/C Finney (likely if Foster can't go): 61.2 (back-up)

C: Pouncey: 50.2 (replaceable)

RG DeCastro: 74.8 (low starter)

RT Feller: 82.8 (high starter)

 

Pitt DL

With Tuitt out, this group went from great, to just solid/good. Heyward RDE/DT is great, but I would hope that AC and Q nullify him. Hargrave (NT) is good and I can see him giving the Kelly/Glow gap some fits. Alualu LDE isn't awful, but he's 32 and a far cry from Tuitt. I can definitely see us running at him a decent amount if Glow and Smith play worth a darn. They are not bad by any means, but they aren't near as good as they were with Tuitt. Their Power Rank is near the bottom (30th) and their stuff rank is average at best (22nd). If our OL comes to play, not worried. If JB can get the ball out earlier than he has and help his OL out, his jersey might stay clean.

PFF Grades

RDE/DT Heyward: 91.2 (elite)

NT Hargrave: 76.4 (starter)

LDE Alualu: 72.8 (low starter)

 

Pitt LB

This group scares me more than anything in terms of sacks. They can get INT's as well. Their OLBs Watt and Dupree have 10 sacks between them (more than the current DL combined).  Watt is a stud but can be a little susceptible to the run, and Dupree is solid. Their ILB rotation of Bush/Barron/Williams is good but can struggle vs the run and can be really inconsistent at times. Bush leads the team in tackles, and also has 2 INTs, 3 PDs, 1 sack, and 4 fumble recoveries. He had a crazy good start this season, but has cooled down a lot of late. Not sure why the drop off. I'm not saying Reich's typical scheme won't work, but shallow passes in the middle of the field won't be easy. TEs and slot could be in for a challenging day. Again, JB needs to help the OL, and get the ball out as quick as possible.

PFF Grades

LOLB Watt: 91.6 (elite)

LILB Bush: 59.9 (backup) - we know he's more capable than current grade

L/RILB Barron: 52.9 (replaceable) 

RILB Williams: 64 (backup)

ROLB Dupree: 77.0 (starter)

 

 

Pitt DB

Overall a pretty average group. Fitzpatrick can be a ball hawk INTer at times, but he's inconsistent. Missed tackles and blown assignments have plagued him a bit. Perhaps he just needs some time to gel with his new team. Nelson is pretty decent, and was recently ranked the 11th best CB by PFF (I think that's a bit high). Hilton had a down 2018, but looks to be getting back to his 2017 form. Hayden (aging) and Edmunds are pretty meh. If we could throw deep, I think we could terrorize their DBs. All the CBs can be burnt off the line.

PFF Grades

LCB Hayden: 59.1 (borderline backup/replaceable)

FS Fitzpatrick: 60.7 (borderline backup/replaceable)

SS Edmunds: 63.4 (backup)

RCB Nelson: 76.5 (starter)

Nickel Hilton: 76.1 (starter)s 

 

Penalties

Pitt, like Indy is one of the least penalized teams in the league. Their OL is their weakest spot and they are a bit subject to false starts and holding. 

 

Quote

PFF grading scale: 100-90 Elite / 89-85 Pro Bowler / 84-70 Starter / 69-60 Backup / 59-0 Replaceable

 

Colts PFF grades

Offense

LT (AC) 83.1 / LG (QN) 87.5 / C (RK) 63.4 / RG (MG) 58.3 / RT (nonsense) 72.2

WR1 (TY) 74.9 / WR2 (ZP) 70.5 / TE1 (EE) 67.7 / TE2 (JD) 65.4 / TE3 (MAC) 64.8

RB1 (MM) 72.7 / RB2 (NH) 65.8 / RB3 (JW) 70.1

QB (JB) 60.3

 

Defense

LDE (JH) 77.8 / LDT (MH) 50.2 / LDT2 (GS) 58.3 / RDT (DA) 78.5 / RDT2 (TL) 69.3 / RDE (JS) 53.6 / RDE2 (AM) 62.4

WILL (DL) 57.2 / MIKE (AW) 47.6 / SAM (MA) 50.6

CB (PD) 50.6 / CB2 (RYS) 48.4 / NCB (KM) 62.8 / FS (MH) 76.3 / SS (CG) 57.9 / SS2 (KW) 67.0 /  

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EastStreet

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45 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

It would have been nice to provide an Executive Summary ...

Proposed game plan exec summary

 

On O, run a decent amount to the edge to keep their DEs/OLBs from crashing, and right at Alualu. Might be a good day for some sweeps. In the passing game, perimeter shots and attack the corners intermediate and deep (I know, but a boy can dream). Avoid shallow middle and forcing it TY.

 

On D, Shouldn't take much to contain their gimpy running game. Crash them on passing downs with some LB blitzes overloading the Pouncey - Foster(or Finney) gap. Houston and Banogu should have good days. Lots of Nickel and Dime.

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Mr.Debonair Team Captain

Mr.Debonair

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I could see their WR's having a good day against our secondary. Especially if we cannot generate a pass rush. We let Flacco move the ball well early in the game. 

 

Offensively, I truly hope we can get the running game going. Don't have much faith in the offense against healthy secondaries. 

 

Looks like another low scoring game 

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Colts PFF grades

Offense

LT (AC) 83.1 / LG (QN) 87.5 / C (RK) 63.4 / RG (MG) 58.3 / RT (nonsense) 72.2

WR1 (TY) 74.9 / WR2 (ZP) 70.5 / TE1 (EE) 67.7 / TE2 (JD) 65.4 / TE3 (MAC) 64.8

RB1 (MM) 72.7 / RB2 (NH) 65.8 / RB3 (JW) 70.1

QB (JB) 60.3

 

Defense

LDE (JH) 77.8 / LDT (MH) 50.2 / LDT2 (GS) 58.3 / RDT (DA) 78.5 / RDT2 (TL) 69.3 / RDE (JS) 53.6 / RDE2 (AM) 62.4

WILL (DL) 57.2 / MIKE (AW) 47.6 / SAM (MA) 50.6

CB (PD) 50.6 / CB2 (RYS) 48.4 / NCB (KM) 62.8 / FS (MH) 76.3 / SS (CG) 57.9 / SS2 (KW) 67.0 /  

 

Based on these numbers we should be about 1-6 on the season. We are just a team of average replaceable nobodies according to the folks at PFF. Analytically speaking Pitts should win by 50 or so.

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Mr.Debonair

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4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

My question is, how did our OL with the same players go from the best in the league to the 22nd ranked OL in the league?  Does changing the OL coach really make that huge of a swing?!

 

QB, holding on to the ball. Not picking up the blitzes well. Quick passing game not there

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19 minutes ago, csmopar said:

My question is, how did our OL with the same players go from the best in the league to the 22nd ranked OL in the league?  Does changing the OL coach really make that huge of a swing?!

22nd meaning 21 teams are sacked MORE than us, not 22nd worst OL.

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27 minutes ago, FRW said:

Colts PFF grades

Offense

LT (AC) 83.1 / LG (QN) 87.5 / C (RK) 63.4 / RG (MG) 58.3 / RT (nonsense) 72.2

WR1 (TY) 74.9 / WR2 (ZP) 70.5 / TE1 (EE) 67.7 / TE2 (JD) 65.4 / TE3 (MAC) 64.8

RB1 (MM) 72.7 / RB2 (NH) 65.8 / RB3 (JW) 70.1

QB (JB) 60.3

 

Defense

LDE (JH) 77.8 / LDT (MH) 50.2 / LDT2 (GS) 58.3 / RDT (DA) 78.5 / RDT2 (TL) 69.3 / RDE (JS) 53.6 / RDE2 (AM) 62.4

WILL (DL) 57.2 / MIKE (AW) 47.6 / SAM (MA) 50.6

CB (PD) 50.6 / CB2 (RYS) 48.4 / NCB (KM) 62.8 / FS (MH) 76.3 / SS (CG) 57.9 / SS2 (KW) 67.0 /  

 

Based on these numbers we should be about 1-6 on the season. We are just a team of average replaceable nobodies according to the folks at PFF. Analytically speaking Pitts should win by 50 or so.

 

Not sure if you are familiar with PFF, or the general make up of teams, but I'd recommend you look at a few other team's PFF makeup. 

 

And I don't see what you see (Pitt winning by 50) at all. And while I don't see Indy's PFF translating to 1-6, our point differential is pretty bad. There are teams with losing records that have better point differentials than us. We could easily 3-4 or 4-3. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Not sure if you are familiar with PFF, or the general make up of teams, but I'd recommend you look at a few other team's PFF makeup. 

 

And I don't see what you see (Pitt winning by 50) at all. And while I don't see Indy's PFF translating to 1-6, our point differential is pretty bad. There are teams with losing records that have better point differentials than us. We could easily 3-4 or 4-3. 

We could also very easily be 6-1 or 7-0 if things had fallen our a way as well...

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2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

We could also very easily be 6-1 or 7-0 if things had fallen our a way as well...

with our point differential, 0-7 to 7-0 were all very possible. 

Just now, csmopar said:

Hmmm looks like they're data is off.   looks like there's 27 teams with more sacks allowed than us.

look for ties.... 

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12 minutes ago, csmopar said:

well its mute now, TY is out, so Mack is gonna have to explode. which will be hard as the Steelers can simply stack the box and force us to pass without TY.

I was making a point that Pitt will have zero running game an will be one dimensional. 

 

I'm sure they were already planning to stack the box a bit while doubling TY anyway. I doubt they totally sell out on the run though. Pitt was in Nickel/Dime/Quarter/Dollar (yes they really have Quarter and Dollar packages) 80% of the time last year.

 

My biggest fear is simply that JB won't be able to read all of the different looks..... All we need to do to keep them honest is chuck it deep a few times early. If not, they're going to play shallow zone and congest all the shallow and intermediate lanes. 

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This would be the perfect the game for Campbell to make 2 or 3 big catches. I think Pascal will play well.

Keep in mind that Rogers has the most experience backing up TY at Z. PC has played a lot of his limited snaps from slot. Cain was playing almost all of his snaps from X. 

 

Sooo.... It's very possible we see

Standard set - Pascal (X) / Campbell (slot) / Rogers (Z)

"Big set" - Cain (X) / Pascal (slot) / Roger (Z)

 

I'm sure we could see Campbell play some Z, but knowing FR, I think it's more likely we see Rogers.

 

Personally I'd love to see in Pascal (X) / Campbell (slot) / Cain (Z). Cain had been working at Z before Funch got hurt.

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If we lose this game and JB plays below average, is it fair to say we can use an excuse and say the WR core was depleted? Just asking because so many people in here say TY is the best player on our team or in the top 3. If we lose I will not use it as an excuse, that is just how I roll :thmup:. I only bring up the injury excuse when an all-pro QB is out and we play against a scrub. Ben is out but so is Luck - even's out.

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5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If we lose this game and JB plays below average, is it fair to say we can use an excuse and say the WR core was depleted? Just asking because so many people in here say TY is the best player on our team or in the top 3. If we lose I will not use it as an excuse, that is just how I roll :thmup:. I only bring up the injury excuse when an all-pro QB is out and we play against a scrub. Ben is out but so is Luck - even's out.

Luck retired before the season started, and Reich said JB was a top 20 QB.... So is he really a backup?

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Luck retired before the season started, and Reich said JB was a top 20 QB.... So is he really a backup?

Coming into the season everyone thought Luck would be our starter. I feel like we have been playing with house money all year to be honest. They lost Ben basically at the beginning so that evens out. Yeah JB is top 15 to me but Luck was top 5. Ok, so is our WR core depleted?, TY is great.

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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Coming into the season everyone thought Luck would be our starter. I feel like we have been playing with house money all year to be honest. They lost Ben basically at the beginning so that evens out. Yeah JB is top 15 to me but Luck was top 5. Ok, so is our WR core depleted?, TY is great.

Personally I feel our receiver group is mostly underutilized. Missing a talent like TY is never good, but we have plenty of experienced quality pass catching targets. So, not depleted....

 

Doyle - has been a pro-bowler. 2nd most open pass catcher in the NFL this year.

Ebron - #2 in TDs last year out of all WRs and TEs

Rogers - Our #2 WR last year

Hines - came close to setting rookie records for a receiving RB

Pascal - is the only WR this year to have a 100+ yard game, came on strong end of last year.

MAC - only been very dependable in limited targets

 

+ 2 rookies that are fast and had great production at big time P5 schools. one which had a lot more production than McLaurin (Chloe's favorite, and a WR that is doing well this year).

 

In short, our previous QB liked all the guys above.... 

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

I agree that our weapons are not being used correctly.  Reich needs to figure that out.

I think Rogers will take on the Z tomorrow, but I'd really love to see one of the young guys get a shot. I think JB is simply used to the routes that TY runs from the Z, and I think whoever runs them might be the biggest benefactor.

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On 11/1/2019 at 12:47 PM, csmopar said:

My question is, how did our OL with the same players go from the best in the league to the 22nd ranked OL in the league?  Does changing the OL coach really make that huge of a swing?!

We've played several good defenses, sometimes the opponent has something to say about it.

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EastStreet

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4 hours ago, IndySouthsider said:

PFF is a pile of useless nerd numbers. Fun to look at but don’t amount to feces on Sunday.

yet it tracks pretty well simple performance metrics, talking heads, and Ws and Ls... 

nothing is perfect. it's just another, ratings system. a lot better than most "eyes"

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