Tyrell Williams as a possible WR FA for Colts?

[Superman]

On 2/3/2019 at 9:06 AM, dw49 said:

 

I think if we look at last year's FA WR's , the answer is there is a large probability he gets 10 mill minimum. I like Williams  better. Much higher ceiling ?

 

I'm just to the point that I'm over the typical H/W/S attraction for WR prospects. That's what everyone seems to base "upside" on, but there are a lot of H/W/S guys who get drafted high or get big money in FA but never produce. 

 

I've begun to value other traits more heavily. I still want some size and speed, but I'm favoring technically sound players who get separation, can make contested catches, and who produce after the catch. Especially with the game favoring passing efficiency over big play production. I don't care how big or fast the guy is, I want him to get open, catch the ball, and get YAC. 

 

Humphries is the best YAC guy in FA. He gets good separation. He's not great when contested, but he's decent. And I'm thinking he'll cost less than Williams, but that remains to be seen. 

[dw49]

20 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm just to the point that I'm over the typical H/W/S attraction for WR prospects. That's what everyone seems to base "upside" on, but there are a lot of H/W/S guys who get drafted high or get big money in FA but never produce. 

 

I've begun to value other traits more heavily. I still want some size and speed, but I'm favoring technically sound players who get separation, can make contested catches, and who produce after the catch. Especially with the game favoring passing efficiency over big play production. I don't care how big or fast the guy is, I want him to get open, catch the ball, and get YAC. 

 

Humphries is the best YAC guy in FA. He gets good separation. He's not great when contested, but he's decent. And I'm thinking he'll cost less than Williams, but that remains to be seen. 

 

I agree he'll be the cheaper option. I can't say I've watched a whole lot of his play , so maybe I'm underestimating him.

[shasta519]

35 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm just to the point that I'm over the typical H/W/S attraction for WR prospects. That's what everyone seems to base "upside" on, but there are a lot of H/W/S guys who get drafted high or get big money in FA but never produce. 

 

I've begun to value other traits more heavily. I still want some size and speed, but I'm favoring technically sound players who get separation, can make contested catches, and who produce after the catch. Especially with the game favoring passing efficiency over big play production. I don't care how big or fast the guy is, I want him to get open, catch the ball, and get YAC. 

 

Humphries is the best YAC guy in FA. He gets good separation. He's not great when contested, but he's decent. And I'm thinking he'll cost less than Williams, but that remains to be seen. 

 

I want the same type or WRs...but I don't know if I would say the game is favoring efficiency over big play production. KC was by far the best passing offense last year...and they thrived on big plays. The LAR and LAC were #3 and #4 in Y/A...and they are #2 and #3 in passing DVOA.

 

This is why getting guys who can make plays after the catch is crucial. Because YAC turns into big plays.

 

NO and NE are very efficient...but they also have RBs that get 9 yds on average when they catch the ball.

 

I just want this team to have a versatile set of playmakers.

 

Right now, I do want to see them prioritize 1-2 of the WRs you are talking about. There's two or three I love in this upcoming draft...and I hope they are near the top of Ballard's board. Not sure I am a huge fan of Humphries in FA. Lots of inflated production last year from TB...and he will have a hefty price tag in this FA group. 

 

But I also do want to see them have that big play guy. Maybe Cain can be that guy...but I wouldn't mind using one of the Day 3 picks on an interesting size/speed guy. I am definitely not paying Tyrell Williams $10M+/year to be that guy.

 

Finally, a RB that can make plays in the passing game is an element that is somewhat missing from this team. They don't need an elite back that can do it all...but they do need someone that can get them 8-9 yards when they catch the ball. I would love Coleman as a FA to pair with Mack. I don't know if he would come here...but I would gladly give him a Glowinski type deal. 

 

[Four2itus]

On 1/27/2019 at 5:49 PM, NewColtsFan said:

   Williams will get signed the first week of FA.      Personally,   I hope we win this signing war.

 

Personally, I don't want to see the Colts win any "signing war". My guestimation of the long term success of team in the long run who wins a signing any war over FA's, is 20% at best. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Personally, I don't want to see the Colts win any "signing war". My guestimation of the long term success of team in the long run who wins a signing any war over FA's, is 20% at best. 

 

Just a figure of speech.   I don't mean to imply that I want Williams at any price.    I don't.

 

I'm only saying I hope our last best offer to Williams is the best he receives,  or is at least good enough for him to pick it over another offer.

 

But I'm also fine if Ballard prefers a different FA WR,  like Humphries, or Anderson,  or Tate, or someone else that's not currently on my radar.

 

Hope that clarifies....

 

[richard pallo]

16 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Personally, I don't want to see the Colts win any "signing war". My guestimation of the long term success of team in the long run who wins a signing any war over FA's, is 20% at best. 

He's not going to break the bank for the Colts.  It's not like he's going to get AB or OBJ money.  He will have suitors but we should be able to win the signing war.  Not to mention we have the Reich and Siranni connection as well.  When you sign a FA you are always winning the signing war unless you are the only suitor. 

[Superman]

36 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I want the same type or WRs...but I don't know if I would say the game is favoring efficiency over big play production. KC was by far the best passing offense last year...and they thrived on big plays. The LAR and LAC were #3 and #4 in Y/A...and they are #2 and #3 in passing DVOA.

 

This is why getting guys who can make plays after the catch is crucial. Because YAC turns into big plays.

 

They go hand in hand, obviously. YAC can lead to big plays, but big plays lead to YAC also; if the WR gets behind the defense and runs another 30 yards for a score, that's YAC, but not the kind of YAC I'm talking about. 

 

One stat that I think highlights the value of YAC, even with big play receivers, is Expected YAC +/-. Expected YAC is how many yards the receiver should get after the catch, based on a variety of factors; +/- is determined by how many yards the receiver does get after the catch. 

 

Hill is #12 in +/-, Kelce is #16, Kupp is top 30. And Goff and Mahomes have bottom ten Aggressiveness ratings, which impacts the receiver's YAC numbers. 

 

Efficiency numbers go up with big plays, but a big part of efficiency is how quickly receivers get open and how quickly the QB gets rid of the ball. If we have good Expected YAC, the receivers are likely getting separation; good +/-, they're likely doing a good job of maximizing opportunities for YAC; good time to throw, the QB is delivering on time and neutralizing the pass rush. Run efficiency and play action are factors here as well. (The Colts sucked at every element of this against the Chiefs, while the Chiefs excelled.)

 

I agree that I want versatile playmakers, including backs in the passing game. My comments are really about the kind of resources that should be devoted toward receivers. It seems like the receivers who are looked at as potential WR1 -- the H/W/S guys that go early in the draft or get big contracts -- fail to produce, and end up representing wasted resources. I don't mind having one of those guys, I just don't want to go chasing a prototypical #1 guy in the name of 'he's gonna be great in the red zone, he can beat double teams,' or any of the other platitudes that are used to support going after these guys.

 

I think the more promising WRs are the guys on Day 2 of the draft and Tier 2 of free agency, who might not be elite athletes, but they're technically sound and have proven production. And sometimes you get a nice intersection in the second round -- like Davante Adams.

[jskinnz]

18 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

He's not going to break the bank for the Colts.  It's not like he's going to get AB or OBJ money.  He will have suitors but we should be able to win the signing war.  Not to mention we have the Reich and Siranni connection as well.  When you sign a FA you are always winning the signing war unless you are the only suitor. 

 

It is not about just simply spending money.  If the Colts wanted Williams or anyone else that gets to free agency, they can pretty much make sure they get Player X with an offer that blows others away.

 

But Ballard will put a value on the position or player and will by all accounts, not go above that if it gets into a bidding scenario.  I think that is the mark of a GM who serve the team well for years to come.  I am not at all disappointed if he decides to not set the market.

 

The only position where I see that potentially not being the case is if a very specific pass rushing DE gets to free agency.  If Lawrence from Dallas hits the open market (he won't) then I can see Ballard breaking the bank.

[Four2itus]

43 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Just a figure of speech.   I don't mean to imply that I want Williams at any price.    I don't.

 

I'm only saying I hope our last best offer to Williams is the best he receives,  or is at least good enough for him to pick it over another offer.

 

But I'm also fine if Ballard prefers a different FA WR,  like Humphries, or Anderson,  or Tate, or someone else that's not currently on my radar.

 

Hope that clarifies....

 

Honestly, our WR position has stumped me for some time. It takes the place I had in my brain about us with LB's until Leonard was drafted. Of course Harrison, Wayne, and Clark tend to set the bar pretty high. 

[Four2itus]

2 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

The only position where I see that potentially not being the case is if a very specific pass rushing DE gets to free agency.  If Lawrence from Dallas hits the open market (he won't) then I can see Ballard breaking the bank.

I was thinking about this and wondered, was it worth it to Chicago to get their end from Oakland? Not saying it was or wasn't, just pondering it.....

[HectorRoberts]

On 1/28/2019 at 1:17 AM, ColtsGermany said:

What about Beasley? He seemed to be a little bit dissatisfied with his target share in dallas. Isn't he a FA? 

Imo he's a reliable target. 

This^!!!! I 100% agree, I would love to see him here

[jskinnz]

16 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I was thinking about this and wondered, was it worth it to Chicago to get their end from Oakland? Not saying it was or wasn't, just pondering it.....

 

When that was all going on in August, I thought 2 first round picks on top of the contract was way to high a price to pay.  There were enough people in the know who thought the opposite of that view.

 

In this case with Lawrence, I think paying the contract without having to give up the picks would be worthwhile.

 

Probably a moot point any way because I just can't see him getting out of Dallas.

[shasta519]

15 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

When that was all going on in August, I thought 2 first round picks on top of the contract was way to high a price to pay.  There were enough people in the know who thought the opposite of that view.

 

In this case with Lawrence, I think paying the contract without having to give up the picks would be worthwhile.

 

Probably a moot point any way because I just can't see him getting out of Dallas.

 

IMO, the true gamble for CHI was how their team was going to perform. If they were a playoff team...then those would be late 1st round picks...which are somewhat overvalued. Of course only they knew better than anyone how good their team was...and what adding Mack would mean...so they must have been very confident (and correct) that they were going to be a good team.

 

Mack had an AV of 17 last year...he was incredibly valuable. If they can get 3-4 more years of that production...Mack will like be worth more than many of two late 1st round picks combined careers.

 

Of course they do have to pay him...which negates some value. But for a team with a QB on a rookie deal...you would be hard-pressed to find any better way of maximizing this window. 

 

That said, I don't think there is any way Ballard would have traded those two picks...but I do think he would have made that offer...especially if it was this offseason.

 

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

IMO, the true gamble for CHI was how their team was going to perform. If they were a playoff team...then those would be late 1st round picks...which are somewhat overvalued. Of course only they knew better than anyone how good their team was...and what adding Mack would mean...so they must have been very confident (and correct) that they were going to be a good team.

 

Mack had an AV of 17 last year...he was incredibly valuable. If they can get 3-4 more years of that production...Mack will like be worth more than many of two late 1st round picks combined careers.

 

Of course they do have to pay him...which negates some value. But for a team with a QB on a rookie deal...you would be hard-pressed to find any better way of maximizing this window. 

 

That said, I don't think there is any way Ballard would have traded those two picks...but I do think he would have made that offer...especially if it was this offseason.

 

Here's a thought.  Now we have this year.   And the Colts are a playoff team with a lot of cap space to sign a premier player.  Our pick this year is 26.  Next year, if all goes well , our 1st. pick  could easily be 26 or later if you think we are capable of going deeper in the playoffs.   The Cowboys traded their 1st. pick for Cooper.  Would Ballard be smart in working with Dallas and  going after Lawrence in a tag and trade deal after agreeing to a long term contract with Lawrence.   We are now in a similar situation as Chicago was before the trade for Mack.  Would he be smart to make an offer this offseason to solve our most glaring need?  They have a number of players to take care of and he has already been tagged once.  Maybe a trade to an AFC team would work out well for them.  If it was me I would be talking with the Cowboys. 

[lollygagger8]

I'm going to guess Colts make him an offer, but some other team will offer him more and he'll sign elsewhere. 

[Valpo2004]

On 1/27/2019 at 8:49 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

His price is NOT going to be low.   Sorry,  but he's NOT in the non-obvious catagory that you talk about.     Either ESPN or NFL.com just had him listed as the 20th best free agent in the upcoming class.

 

He may not be a household name to fans,  but the NFL scouts and GM's know about him.

 

And so do the Colts.    We make a ton of sense for him.     He played for Reich and Siriani in San Diego.    They know him well.     The Chargers already pay Allen $10Mill-plus and they will with Williams too.   He was a top-10 pick,  so they'll be paying him.     LA can't afford 3 WR's all making $10 MIll and I'm confident that's what Williams will make.    The Chargers will likely have to let him go.    At least,  I hope so.

 

Spotrac projects him for 3 years and 29 Mill.  That's roughly 10 mill per.    I think his floor is 10 Mill for 4 years.    It's a thin FA class for WR's...    so by the law of supply and demand,  his price could go up.     I hope we win the bidding war.

 

Potentially working against Williams?    He's 6'4" and this front office may not want a tall WR?   Maybe they want little quick guys like TYH or Julian Edelman?  Or Humphries from Tampa Bay.    Don't know?    But we will find out in Mid-March.    Williams will get signed the first week of FA.      Personally,   I hope we win this signing war.

 

 

If you look at the WR contracts these days 10M might be low end.

 

10M puts you at #22 in WR contracts.  

 

Looking at the list of WR available, Adam Humphries looks like someone to consider.  He will be 26 next season.  Last season he posted 76 catches for 816 yards.  The season before that he posted 61 catches for 631 yards and 2 years ago it was 55 catches for 622 yards

 

Seems under the radar and sounds like a possession type receiver.  So you could probably get him at a value contract.  

[Hoose]

On 2/4/2019 at 1:58 PM, Superman said:

 

They go hand in hand, obviously. YAC can lead to big plays, but big plays lead to YAC also; if the WR gets behind the defense and runs another 30 yards for a score, that's YAC, but not the kind of YAC I'm talking about. 

 

One stat that I think highlights the value of YAC, even with big play receivers, is Expected YAC +/-. Expected YAC is how many yards the receiver should get after the catch, based on a variety of factors; +/- is determined by how many yards the receiver does get after the catch. 

 

Hill is #12 in +/-, Kelce is #16, Kupp is top 30. And Goff and Mahomes have bottom ten Aggressiveness ratings, which impacts the receiver's YAC numbers. 

 

Efficiency numbers go up with big plays, but a big part of efficiency is how quickly receivers get open and how quickly the QB gets rid of the ball. If we have good Expected YAC, the receivers are likely getting separation; good +/-, they're likely doing a good job of maximizing opportunities for YAC; good time to throw, the QB is delivering on time and neutralizing the pass rush. Run efficiency and play action are factors here as well. (The Colts sucked at every element of this against the Chiefs, while the Chiefs excelled.)

 

I agree that I want versatile playmakers, including backs in the passing game. My comments are really about the kind of resources that should be devoted toward receivers. It seems like the receivers who are looked at as potential WR1 -- the H/W/S guys that go early in the draft or get big contracts -- fail to produce, and end up representing wasted resources. I don't mind having one of those guys, I just don't want to go chasing a prototypical #1 guy in the name of 'he's gonna be great in the red zone, he can beat double teams,' or any of the other platitudes that are used to support going after these guys.

 

I think the more promising WRs are the guys on Day 2 of the draft and Tier 2 of free agency, who might not be elite athletes, but they're technically sound and have proven production. And sometimes you get a nice intersection in the second round -- like Davante Adams.

Really interesting comments. After watching Edelman run crazy in the post season, a smaller WR who can consistently get open and get YAC is enticing. A previous poster suggested Beasley as a possible option if he hits FA as expected. Any thoughts on this guy?

[coltsva]

I've read several times in this thread about the Reich and Sirianni connection helping the Colts land Williams. Do we even know if Reich and Sirianni liked Williams at SD, or if Williams liked playing for them? Familiarity with each other can work both ways.

 

Regardless, I'd prefer Humphries.

[Hoose]

18 hours ago, coltsva said:

I've read several times in this thread about the Reich and Sirianni connection helping the Colts land Williams. Do we even know if Reich and Sirianni liked Williams at SD, or if Williams liked playing for them? Familiarity with each other can work both ways.

 

Regardless, I'd prefer Humphries.

I'd like either one of those guys. I just firmly believe the Colts have to grab a FA wide receiver. Their current group from 3-5 isn't gonna cut it. 

[Superman]

On 2/5/2019 at 5:30 PM, Hoose said:

Really interesting comments. After watching Edelman run crazy in the post season, a smaller WR who can consistently get open and get YAC is enticing. A previous poster suggested Beasley as a possible option if he hits FA as expected. Any thoughts on this guy?

 

Beasley isn't as good after the catch as people seem to think. He's small, and he'll be 30 next season. I'm not that excited about him. He is a pro, he runs quick routes and he catches everything. We could do worse, that's for sure.

 

He also has a rap album, so maybe that makes him the best FA overall...

[Superman]

21 hours ago, coltsva said:

Do we even know if Reich and Sirianni liked Williams at SD, or if Williams liked playing for them?

 

Nope, everyone just makes this assumption, and it usually doesn't work out that way.

 

But, if anyone knows Williams, it's Reich and Sirianni. Reich spent time in the past as a WR coach, and Sirianni was Williams' WR coach for two years before coming to the Colts. If they do like him, it would make sense that we'd go after him. If we don't go after him, I'll definitely defer to their judgment.

[Lawrence Owen]

You just don't see Williams using the middle of the field like Humphries does.  Granted, Adam is a slot receiver, but I still like what Humphries bring to the table more.  Always seems to get open when needed, and is dangerous after the catch.