No Sure Thing- #1 Qb's

[GAColtfan]

Just an objective look for those who are viewing Luck as the "next sure thing"...

#1 Overall Draft Picks- QB's since 1990

1990- Jeff George, Colts... ewwwwww

1993- Drew Bledsoe, Patriots Not a bad career, on the winning way before being replaced by Brady after an injury

1998- Peyton Manning, Colts First ballot HOF

1999- Tim Couch, Browns Uhhh, no

2001- Michael Vick, Falcons Not too bad, except for those two years he played for the Federals

2002- David Carr, Texans Has been holding a clipboard for a few years now, before that just trying to hold onto his head with Texans

2003- Carson Palmer, Bengals Don't know if it was him or just the black hole that is the Bengals

2004- Eli Manning, Giants (from Chargers) 2 SB's, one of the best in the league

2005- Alex Smith, 49ers Finally found his groove last year... 7 years into the league

2007- JaMarcus Russell, Raiders Poster child for epic fail

2009- Matthew Stafford, Lions Becoming a good QB, helping Lions finally becoming more than the leader in ineptitude

2010- Sam Bradford, Rams We'll see, but hasn't exactly lit up the league yet

2011- Cam Newton, Panthers Awesome rookie year

So that's 21 years... 13 QB's drafted overall #1

* They have led their teams to 4 Super Bowls (Peyton 2 & Eli 2) and won 3 Super Bowls

* 3 of them could barely hold a starting job

* Couch's career lasted 5 years, Russell lasted 3

All of this for information only, not saying anything about our future #1. Hoping he turns into the next great thing and leads us to many more winning years.... just trying to put some perspective on this decision to place so much trust in a #1 pick that we release Manning.

[shakedownstreet]

[Nadine]

yep that sums it up.

on the other hand, if Peyton is not back to his old self and the two qbs at the top of the draft set the league on fire.....

There would also be a lot of angry colts fans

Nobody can predict the future and that's the truth all the way around.

[Manning2Wayne]

only educated guesses,

[The Peytonator]

Especially ones that had a running game that averaged 200+ yards per game and a massive oline.

Have fun finding that kind of running game in Indy.

[UndecidedFrog]

It all depends on how you look at the data. Yes, from 1990 onwards, it appears that #1 overall picked QBs didn't do too well.

But if we look at things another way, like not how the entire league uses their #1 picks, but how the Colts have used their draft picks on QBs historically, we see:

First round drafted QBs by the Colts:

1998 Peyton Manning (1st overall pick)

1990 Jeff George (1)

1983 John Elway (1)

1982 Art Schlichter (4)

1973 Bert Jones (2)

Second tier QBs drafted by the Colts (2nd round through overall pick #160)

1988 Chris Chandler 3rd round (76)

1986 Jack Trudeau 2nd round (47)

1982 Mike Pagel 4th round (84)

1976 Mike Kirkland 5th round (143)

1971 Karl Douglas 3rd round (78)

Third tier QBs drafted by the Colts (overall pick #160 upwards)

2009 Curtis Painter 6th round (201)

2004 Jim Sorgi 6th round (193)

1996 Mike Cawley 6th round (205)

1990 Gene Benhart 13th round (311)

1989 Wayne Johnson 11th round (296)

1989 Steve Taylor 12th round (323)

1983 Jim Bob Taylor 11th round (280)

1975 Steve Joachim 7th round (160)

1975 Bill Malouf 16th round (392)

1974 Bob Bobrowski 12th round (307)

1973 Tom Pierantozzi 13th round (322)

1972 Van Brownson 8th round (204)

1972 Gary Wichard 16th round (412)

1970 Gordon Slade 7th round (174)

1969 Sam Havrilak 8th round (207)

1969 Larry Good 9th round (232)

1968 Jeff Beaver 15th round (404)

I think the Colts have a good record of using their first round picks on QBs compared to QBs picked in later rounds.

[doc108]

It all depends on how you look at the data. Yes, from 1990 onwards, it appears that #1 overall picked QBs didn't do too well.

But if we look at things another way, like not how the entire league uses their #1 picks, but how the Colts have used their draft picks on QBs historically, we see:

First round drafted QBs by the Colts:

1998 Peyton Manning (1st overall pick)

1990 Jeff George (1)

1983 John Elway (1)

1982 Art Schlichter (4)

1973 Bert Jones (2)

Second tier QBs drafted by the Colts (2nd round through overall pick #160)

1988 Chris Chandler 3rd round (76)

1986 Jack Trudeau 2nd round (47)

1982 Mike Pagel 4th round (84)

1976 Mike Kirkland 5th round (143)

1971 Karl Douglas 3rd round (78)

Third tier QBs drafted by the Colts (overall pick #160 upwards)

2009 Curtis Painter 6th round (201)

2004 Jim Sorgi 6th round (193)

1996 Mike Cawley 6th round (205)

1990 Gene Benhart 13th round (311)

1989 Wayne Johnson 11th round (296)

1989 Steve Taylor 12th round (323)

1983 Jim Bob Taylor 11th round (280)

1975 Steve Joachim 7th round (160)

1975 Bill Malouf 16th round (392)

1974 Bob Bobrowski 12th round (307)

1973 Tom Pierantozzi 13th round (322)

1972 Van Brownson 8th round (204)

1972 Gary Wichard 16th round (412)

1970 Gordon Slade 7th round (174)

1969 Sam Havrilak 8th round (207)

1969 Larry Good 9th round (232)

1968 Jeff Beaver 15th round (404)

I think the Colts have a good record of using their first round picks on QBs compared to QBs picked in later rounds.

That isn't a great point. You have basically a new FO so you cannot say that because the old FO did good so will this one.

[Andy]

Andrew Luck is better than all those prospects (when they were coming out of college), even Manning. Either way, recently it's been pretty good.

Notice how all the busts, Russell, Couch and George are all players who came in the league with really only potential. They didn't prove much in college, but showed how much potential they have. That's where the busts happen and come from, the players who come in the NFL and are picked based on pure potential.

Now, David Carr was a bust becuase he had the worst O-line in the history of the NFL. He was sacked 76 times in his rookie year (17% of the time he dropped back to pass), that's an NFL record.

Alex Smith seems to be turning the corner. Alex Smith proved to be a good pocket passer, and like Carr, the 49ers didn't have the greatest line, plus they didn't have the right scheme and offense for him. Harbaugh's system seems to be good for Smith.

All the other QBs are good QBs.

Vick may not be the greatest passer, but he sure made that team better, they went to the playoffs and the NFC Championship in 2004 with him.

Drew Bledsoe is a good quarteback.

The Mannings are Mannings.

Stafford and Bradford are on their way to the top.

Carson Palmer is a good QB too.

I like Andrew Luck's chances of succeeding in this league as recently the top QBs have been good, he's the best college QB since Elway, he has every good attribute that an elite QB has, and he's a proven QB with a good amount of potential.

[UndecidedFrog]

Another way to look at history is to see how #1 overall picked QBs from Stanford fared:

1971 Jim Plunkett (2 SB wins)

1983 John Elway (2 SB wins)

2012 ???Andrew Luck??? Who knows? Maybe the Colts will not pick a Stanford QB with its #1 overall pick.

Looking at data, or even pieces of data only provide one perspective. To get a better feeling for the reality, it is best to look at all the pieces from different angles.

[UndecidedFrog]

That isn't a great point. You have basically a new FO so you cannot say that because the old FO did good so will this one.

Yes, and the same argument can be used against the OP's data set. All those QBs picked #1 were picked with different FOs, some more savvy than others.

[doc108]

Andrew Luck is better than all those prospects (when they were coming out of college), even Manning. Either way, recently it's been pretty good.

Notice how all the busts, Russell, Couch and George are all players who came in the league with really only potential. They didn't prove much in college, but showed how much potential they have. That's where the busts happen and come from, the players who come in the NFL and are picked based on pure potential.

Now, David Carr was a bust becuase he had the worst O-line in the history of the NFL. He was sacked 76 times in his rookie year (17% of the time he dropped back to pass), that's an NFL record.

Alex Smith seems to be turning the corner. Alex Smith proved to be a good pocket passer, and like Carr, the 49ers didn't have the greatest line, plus they didn't have the right scheme and offense for him. Harbaugh's system seems to be good for Smith.

All the other QBs are good QBs.

Vick may not be the greatest passer, but he sure made that team better, they went to the playoffs and the NFC Championship in 2004 with him.

Drew Bledsoe is a good quarteback.

The Mannings are Mannings.

Stafford and Bradford are on their way to the top.

Carson Palmer is a good QB too.

I like Andrew Luck's chances of succeeding in this league as recently the top QBs have been good, he's the best college QB since Elway, he has every good attribute that an elite QB has, and he's a proven QB with a good amount of potential.

Luck has no one to throw to no real defense and a bod to mediocre O-line. And everyone comes into the league with just potential no matter what they did in college. He hasn't taken an NFL snap and many are proclaiming him the next great thing. No.

And really Bradford on the way up I don't think so.

[MSColtsFan]

There has been no other position drafted as frequently as QB at number one either, which shows how important every team views that position. Of all the first over all picks in the Super Bowl era, something like 19 have been QBs. The best example of my point is the Alex Smith year. There was no consensus number one pick in that draft, yet a QB was taken anyway. JaMarcus a couple years later. Seriously? Some thought Leaf could have been picked first in 1998, and he missed his meeting with the Colts at the combine - what does that tell you about some of these guys, yet they still get taken first, or very, very high, because it's been a QB league for generations, and it will continue to be.

[21isSuperman]

This has been discussed ad nauseum. Of course, you can never say it's a sure thing. Get the right character guy, surround him with talent, give him all the tools to succeed and you'll be alright.

[jvan1973]

Another way to look at history is to see how #1 overall picked QBs from Stanford fared:

1971 Jim Plunkett (2 SB wins)

1983 John Elway (2 SB wins)

2012 ???Andrew Luck??? Who knows? Maybe the Colts will not pick a Stanford QB with its #1 overall pick.

Looking at data, or even pieces of data only provide one perspective. To get a better feeling for the reality, it is best to look at all the pieces from different angles.

Completely irrelevant.. None of those guys have anything in common except the name of the school on their diplomas. I "think" Luck will be good, but who knows for sure??

[WSO]

Luck has no one to throw to no real defense and a bod to mediocre O-line. And everyone comes into the league with just potential no matter what they did in college. He hasn't taken an NFL snap and many are proclaiming him the next great thing. No.

And really Bradford on the way up I don't think so.

Hey just a hint. Maybe because the draft hasn't happened and free agency hasn't started? Have you ever thought about that? My god some people really want this guy to fail.

[WSO]

Completely irrelevant.. None of those guys have anything in common except the name of the school on their diplomas. I "think" Luck will be good, but who knows for sure??

Just like every QB taken overall #1 is irrelevant. Different players, different coaches, different city, different skill set. I hate when people think since player 'x' became a bust then player 'y' might be a bust. Two completely different scenarios.

[UndecidedFrog]

Completely irrelevant.. None of those guys have anything in common except the name of the school on their diplomas. I "think" Luck will be good, but who knows for sure??

Yes, just as irrelevant as the list of QBs taken with the #1 pick since 1990. None of those guys have anything in common except that they were QBs, and they were picked #1. exception: a pair of them are siblings.

BTW, kudos to you and AndrewLuck12 for understanding the parallelism I was attempting.

[GoDeep]

Data shmata. You could do this to any position.

Some bust, some don't.

Luck is a good bet.

Should we not have drafted Peyton b/c he might bust?

[Andy]

Luck has no one to throw to no real defense and a bod to mediocre O-line. And everyone comes into the league with just potential no matter what they did in college. He hasn't taken an NFL snap and many are proclaiming him the next great thing. No.

And really Bradford on the way up I don't think so.

Luck will atleast have Collie Clark and either Garcon and Wayne. If he doesn't have Wayne + Garcon, the Colts will probably bring a couple of good players in. They will get him players to throw to. Everyone comes in with potential, but there are quarterbacks that prove themselves in college. Luck was arguably the best QB in the country in his sophomore year and had another great year in his junior year. He has proven himself. Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and Jeff George all didn't have great years in the NFL, but some saw some upside in them, which is also known as potential and took a risk on them. It also helps that they didn't have good attitudes and just didn't care. They all come in with potential, but the more experienced and ones that have had great years are the ones that are great.

BTW, Bradford had an off year due to his many injuries and having arguably the worst O-line in the league as his left and right tackle were on the IR, not to mention so was his guard Dahl. Once he gets protection (like he did in his rookie year), he's going to be great. We've all seen flashes of brilliance from him, and it doesn't help he's on a terrible terrible team. He's a good QB surrounded by really no good players. He's ON THE WAY UP, whether you like it or not.

[doc108]

Luck will atleast have Collie Clark and either Garcon and Wayne. If he doesn't have Wayne + Garcon, the Colts will probably bring a couple of good players in. They will get him players to throw to. Everyone comes in with potential, but there are quarterbacks that prove themselves in college. Luck was arguably the best QB in the country in his sophomore year and had another great year in his junior year. He has proven himself. Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and Jeff George all didn't have great years in the NFL, but some saw some upside in them, which is also known as potential and took a risk on them. It also helps that they didn't have good attitudes and just didn't care. They all come in with potential, but the more experienced and ones that have had great years are the ones that are great.

BTW, Bradford had an off year due to his many injuries and having arguably the worst O-line in the league as his left and right tackle were on the IR, not to mention so was his guard Dahl. Once he gets protection (like he did in his rookie year), he's going to be great. We've all seen flashes of brilliance from him, and it doesn't help he's on a terrible terrible team. He's a good QB surrounded by really no good players. He's ON THE WAY UP, whether you like it or not.

Just like Luck will be.

[Andy]

Just like Luck will be.

Lol the Colts overall are a better team than the Rams (not by much, but they're still better). Luck is better than Bradford. He was a better college player than Bradford and he has more attributes than Bradford. Luck is better than Bradford and the Colts are better overall than the Rams. It's a different situation, buddy.

[DILLIGAFER]

Andrew Luck is better than all those prospects (when they were coming out of college), even Manning. Either way, recently it's been pretty good.

Notice how all the busts, Russell, Couch and George are all players who came in the league with really only potential. They didn't prove much in college, but showed how much potential they have. That's where the busts happen and come from, the players who come in the NFL and are picked based on pure potential.

Now, David Carr was a bust becuase he had the worst O-line in the history of the NFL. He was sacked 76 times in his rookie year (17% of the time he dropped back to pass), that's an NFL record.

Alex Smith seems to be turning the corner. Alex Smith proved to be a good pocket passer, and like Carr, the 49ers didn't have the greatest line, plus they didn't have the right scheme and offense for him. Harbaugh's system seems to be good for Smith.

All the other QBs are good QBs.

Vick may not be the greatest passer, but he sure made that team better, they went to the playoffs and the NFC Championship in 2004 with him.

Drew Bledsoe is a good quarteback.

The Mannings are Mannings.

Stafford and Bradford are on their way to the top.

Carson Palmer is a good QB too.

I like Andrew Luck's chances of succeeding in this league as recently the top QBs have been good, he's the best college QB since Elway, he has every good attribute that an elite QB has, and he's a proven QB with a good amount of potential.

Leaf was rated better prospect than Manning, but lacked the work ethic Manning has. IDK time will tell.

[doc108]

Lol the Colts overall are a better team than the Rams (not by much, but they're still better). Luck is better than Bradford. He was a better college player than Bradford and he has more attributes than Bradford. Luck is better than Bradford and the Colts are better overall than the Rams. It's a different situation, buddy.

Well they have a better defense although not by much. And Steven Jackson who is pretty good. They are better. That is just the homer in you saying you are better.

[Andy]

Leaf was rated better prospect than Manning, but lacked the work ethic Manning has. IDK time will tell.

Exactly, he was a better prospect and a prospect is a young player with potential. Peyton was more proven and more experienced, they were just afraid he wouldn't get much better, but he did!

[Andy]

Well they have a better defense although not by much. And Steven Jackson who is pretty good. They are better. That is just the homer in you saying you are better.

I really don't appreciate that shot. Don't be a jerk. Both defenses are pretty bad, and the Colts have better receivers. Andrew Luck is probably going to be better than SAm Bradford. The Colts have more stars than the Rams which is the difference maker for me. As much as the COlts secondary sucks, the Rams' secondary is worse. The Colts (with Luck) are better going forward. *Im not being a homer, we're just comparing the Colts with arguably the worst team in the league, so it's not crazy to think that we're better.

[WSO]

Well they have a better defense although not by much. And Steven Jackson who is pretty good. They are better. That is just the homer in you saying you are better.

The Rams are not a better team. They have nothing on offense besides Lloyd who was just brought in and Steven Jackson. Their defense is just flat out bad. The Colts defense was not very good because they are built to play with a lead. How do you do that with Collins, Painter and Orlovsky?

[jemack]

Data shmata. You could do this to any position.

Some bust, some don't.

Luck is a good bet.

Should we not have drafted Peyton b/c he might bust?

The Colts had a run down Harbaugh and Paul Justin. Not much of a gamble

[Slick_Rick]

Anything on Luck's work ethic? I hope he isn't one of those guys who just tries to make it on talent alone...

[UndecidedFrog]

Anything on Luck's work ethic? I hope he isn't one of those guys who just tries to make it on talent alone...

At Stanford, he was the first in, last out guy, in preparation for games.

He wasn't lying when he said he emulated his game after PM.

[Slick_Rick]

Good to hear, Thanks Frog

[Andy]

Anything on Luck's work ethic? I hope he isn't one of those guys who just tries to make it on talent alone...

Hard working kid, and some of the students said "Works harder than anyone" and "That he logs in the hours". He's one of the hardest working guys out there, from what I've heard. He wants to follow in Peyton's footsteps and he's doing just that. Don't worry about this kid's work ethic.

[chrisfarley]

because of Grigson, I feel we will find a couple of steals in the draft, and with some free agency moves, we could build a decent .500 team if Luck is even 80 percent of what we think he is for a 1st year QB. I think our DC and coach Pagano are our wildcards, if they prove to be good or above avg., we, again could make a few ripples,.... not waves mind you, but it could be an interesting year.

[WSO]

Anything on Luck's work ethic? I hope he isn't one of those guys who just tries to make it on talent alone...

Pursuing a degree in architecture at Stanford. Last time I checked he had a 3.5 GPA. Pretty darn good balancing education and football. No worries about his work ethic.

[atapcl]

Just an objective look for those who are viewing Luck as the "next sure thing"...

#1 Overall Draft Picks- QB's since 1990

1990- Jeff George, Colts... ewwwwww

1993- Drew Bledsoe, Patriots Not a bad career, on the winning way before being replaced by Brady after an injury

1998- Peyton Manning, Colts First ballot HOF

1999- Tim Couch, Browns Uhhh, no

2001- Michael Vick, Falcons Not too bad, except for those two years he played for the Federals

2002- David Carr, Texans Has been holding a clipboard for a few years now, before that just trying to hold onto his head with Texans

2003- Carson Palmer, Bengals Don't know if it was him or just the black hole that is the Bengals

2004- Eli Manning, Giants (from Chargers) 2 SB's, one of the best in the league

2005- Alex Smith, 49ers Finally found his groove last year... 7 years into the league

2007- JaMarcus Russell, Raiders Poster child for epic fail

2009- Matthew Stafford, Lions Becoming a good QB, helping Lions finally becoming more than the leader in ineptitude

2010- Sam Bradford, Rams We'll see, but hasn't exactly lit up the league yet

2011- Cam Newton, Panthers Awesome rookie year

So that's 21 years... 13 QB's drafted overall #1

* They have led their teams to 4 Super Bowls (Peyton 2 & Eli 2) and won 3 Super Bowls

* 3 of them could barely hold a starting job

* Couch's career lasted 5 years, Russell lasted 3

All of this for information only, not saying anything about our future #1. Hoping he turns into the next great thing and leads us to many more winning years.... just trying to put some perspective on this decision to place so much trust in a #1 pick that we release Manning.

No player picked first is a guarantee. What if we had kept Harbaugh and traded away the pick used for Peyton for more draft picks? Maybe we could strenthen the team more with the picks and maybe some of the picks dont pan out. We would have lost the greatness of Peyton. A team can only do their do diligence in scounting and take some risks to bring in the best possible players.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Your glass is too big.

[atapcl]

Jim Harbaugh was a good QB that got us to within one game of the SB. Looking back would we trade the rights to the pick for Peyton to put more good players around Harbaugh for another run at the playoffs. The Colts had had a bad season when Hargaugh was traded but was the bad season all Harbaugh's fault? I say the team made the right decision trading the older Harbaugh for a chance that Peyton would be great. I say the team must take a chance with the draft position on the future leader for the franchise. If Luck or RGIII dont pan out at least an effort would have been made to improve the team. John Wayne once said in his movie, Big Jake, that "if the risk is little the reward is little."

[Balzer40]

Im not sure that I've seen or heard anybody say for a fact that Luck will be a "sure thing". You can only go by the information you have from what any QB does in college and its obvious that Luck has all the tools to succeed. It certainly does not mean that he definately will, but given the information they have on him and the scouts that have told Irsay and Grigson it only makes sense to pick him. You don't trade out of the spot to take a less talented QB and hope and pray he turns into Tom Brady.