What Do You Think "healthy" Means To Mr. Irsay?

[UndecidedFrog]

We all know what Mr. Irsay said in regards to Peyton returning to the team.

He said, if Peyton is healthy, he will be a colt.

With the $28MM option bonus due on March 8, it seems there will be a decision made before then, on whether Peyton is "healthy" enough to remain a colt.

I have 2 questions for you:

1) What do you think "healthy" means to Mr. Irsay?

2) What do you think "healthy" should mean to Mr. Irsay?

If you have a hard time quantifying that, I am providing a multiple choice for you:

a) Healthy means Peyton is back to 100% of his pre-injury form.

b) Healthy means Peyton is back to 80% of his pre-injury form.

c) Healthy means Peyton is back to 70% of his pre-injury form.

d) Healthy means Peyton is back to something less than 70% of his pre-injury form.

[GoColts8818]

Based on what happens if you get it wrong? I think being healthy means Peyton is 100% healthy and ready to play either at level he was before the injury or very close to it.

That's why I've said in Peyton Manning's world and Jim Irsay's world healthy could mean two very different things. Jim Irsay needs to know for sure he's going to have Peyton Manning playing to justify giving him that bonus and locking us into the contract IMO. To Peyton though he just needs to keep getting better and just be ready to go by camp so as long as he's improving and the doctors keep saying you should be good to go by training camp that's good enough for him.

[doogansquest]

I think that, this upcoming week, Mr. Irsay will watch Peyton, and talk to Peyton. I also think he will listen to the doctors and trainers, but more importantly, I believe he will trust Manning's word.

[DILLIGAFER]

Whatever he wants it to.

[John Dee]

We all know what Mr. Irsay said in regards to Peyton returning to the team.

He said, if Peyton is healthy, he will be a colt.

With the $28MM option bonus due on March 8, it seems there will be a decision made before then, on whether Peyton is "healthy" enough to remain a colt.

I have 2 questions for you:

1) What do you think "healthy" means to Mr. Irsay?

2) What do you think "healthy" should mean to Mr. Irsay?

If you have a hard time quantifying that, I am providing a multiple choice for you:

a) Healthy means Peyton is back to 100% of his pre-injury form.

b) Healthy means Peyton is back to 80% of his pre-injury form.

c) Healthy means Peyton is back to 70% of his pre-injury form.

d) Healthy means Peyton is back to something less than 70% of his pre-injury form.

I am sure Irsay's definition of "healthy" is a QB who has not had 3 neck procedures and is free of nerve damage.

[John Dee]

I think that, this upcoming week, Mr. Irsay will watch Peyton, and talk to Peyton. I also think he will listen to the doctors and trainers, but more importantly, I believe he will trust Manning's word.

I would bet the ranch the "talk" and decision has already been made.

[Susie Q]

I personally don't think this is a question that it will make any difference to what we think since Irsay will make the decision so if you really want to know what healthy is you would have to ask him what his defination is that he will be using. We have to have faith that he will make the decision that he feels best with and can live with. Maybe some wil not like the decision but so is life and deal with it and go on.

[Jaric]

I don't have a clue on either to be honest.

I know you have to be pretty darn sure he plays next season if you pick up that option. 99.9% of the time I would love to be in Jim Irsay's shoes.

This is that .1%

[wercolts]

More importantly is what % + 5 more months of rehab is he willing to accept. If he's 70-80 and improving, I like those odds.

[Susie Q]

I would bet the ranch the "talk" and decision has already been made.

You might not want to do that because I would hate you to lose the ranch. Even if it is you will never know when the decision was reached. Don't think he will show all his cards. He's a lot smarter than that.

[UndecidedFrog]

I personally don't think this is a question that it will make any difference to what we think since Irsay will make the decision so if you really want to know what healthy is you would have to ask him what his defination is that he will be using. We have to have faith that he will make the decision that he feels best with and can live with. Maybe some wil not like the decision but so is life and deal with it and go on.

You are right, it won't make a difference since Mr. Irsay will have his own definition.

However, I think this question is a good one to expose the different bases that different people have about what healthy means to them, when they use that as a supporting factor to argue to pay the bonus to keep Peyton or not.

[gacker65]

IMO, we will not find out Peyton's true health till after the draft. On 8 March do not be surprised to heard Mr. Irsay state that the Colts are keeping Peyton and that Peyton's progress continues on track or something like that. As it has been stated in another thread, Mr. Irsay is playing the other teams to get what he and his coaching staff need for the draft( their choice of players in draft or trades). IMO this is not only smart, but could lead to getting what team needs to move forward.

[LUVTHESHOE]

I don't think he can define healthy. I do know that he wrote a healthy check on a gamble and lost last year, so one can assume he will be more careful this year. I think the biggest problem is the fact that the time tables don't work out, it could be months before PM knows if or when he will be ready to to go, but the money is due very soon. I realize that everyone loves PM, but I quess my question is why does everyone put the onus on Jim Irsay, with things like throwing PM under the bus and how can you cut him loose. I wonder why PM hasn't gone to JI with an offer to work something out, I.e. a contract structured based on health and ability to play, with a huge back end reward if all works out, but no that hasn't happened, just blame on JI. JI in my opinion has taken very good care of PM, and maybe, just maybe PM could go to the Colts with some options or maybe it is just easier to put all of this on JI. O rmaybe as I have said before maybe he wants out, because if he feels he can play he could help make something work here.

[jskinnz]

Undecided - excellent question

Go Colts - excellent analysis.

Doogan - I think Irsay needs to take the Doc's word needs to carry more weight than Manning's.

Overall - IMO, there is no way Irsay can pay Manning the bonus without knowing that he is 100% healthy enough to play at the very moment he writes the check. Speculating that he will be healthy in September is not nearly good enough to risk the financial harm that will come to the team should he not actually be ready to go.

[Susie Q]

You are right, it won't make a difference since Mr. Irsay will have his own definition.

However, I think this question is a good one to expose the different bases that different people have about what healthy means to them, when they use that as a supporting factor to argue to pay the bonus to keep Peyton or not.

I personally don't care what factor he uses because it's his money not mine. Like I said I have to trust he will make the right decision. Will I like it maybe/maybe not but I will survive as will everyone . I just don't want to see a big fiasco on the boards what ever he decides.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I think he has to be 100% for that type of investment, and even then I do not see an ideal situation to have Manning & Luck on the same team outside of having a decent back and an insurance policy. It's an expensive insurance policy, because not many if any backups will have a salary cap hit that he will.

Here is a hypothetical.

If Manning doesn't have 3 surgeries. His contract is set up the same way where an Option Bonus of 28 million is due on 3/8, and the NFL had installed a random lottery in the last CBA as opposed to the draft being predicated on W/L records, and the Colts won the option, does he even consider drafting Luck, or would he make the same decision and move forward with Luck since Mannning is about to turn 36??

[Rich Cannon]

I dont want to put a percentage on health but I believe to Irsay it means guaranteeing Peyton will be ready by September, close to or at the level he played before. Lets face it he's not 100 percent right now. If the doctors clear him to play thats a good sign but it doesnt necessarily means he's back to the good old Peyton we know and love. But.....If the doctors give Irsay reassurance that there is a high chance that Peyton will be ready by September I think Irsay keeps Manning.

[UndecidedFrog]

Here is a hypothetical.

If Manning doesn't have 3 surgeries. His contract is set up the same way where an Option Bonus of 28 million is due on 3/8, and the NFL had installed a random lottery in the last CBA as opposed to the draft being predicated on W/L records, and the Colts won the option, does he even consider drafting Luck, or would he make the same decision and move forward with Luck since Mannning is about to turn 36??

In your hypothetical, I see Mr. Irsay moving forward with Luck for these reasons:

1) The probability of hitting the draft lottery for the #1 overall pick, coupled with the probability of a #1 QB of Luck's caliber entering the draft lottery in any year,

2) My current star QB is aging.

To me, it is a no-brainer.

[icf]

If I were Irsay.....

"Healthy" would mean that I am going to get a good ROI on my $28M that is due on March 8th -- and all the money I'll be paying over the rest of the contract when it kicks in. He would need to 100% back to the old Peyton....not 80% or even 95%.

I think this is why he lets him walk on 3/8.

I dont think anyone will be able to say at that point if Manning will be 100% and ready go to this summer and for the rest of the contract. Irsay will see the $'s he would be obligated to pay as way to much money to spend on the "hope" that he comes back as the Manning of old.

[jskinnz]

I think he has to be 100% for that type of investment, and even then I do not see an ideal situation to have Manning & Luck on the same team outside of having a decent back and an insurance policy. It's an expensive insurance policy, because not many if any backups will have a salary cap hit that he will.

Here is a hypothetical.

If Manning doesn't have 3 surgeries. His contract is set up the same way where an Option Bonus of 28 million is due on 3/8, and the NFL had installed a random lottery in the last CBA as opposed to the draft being predicated on W/L records, and the Colts won the option, does he even consider drafting Luck, or would he make the same decision and move forward with Luck since Mannning is about to turn 36??

I don't follow the relevance of a lottery system in the draft v. W/L record, but I do believe under the same circumtances of Manning's age, the bonus due on 3/8, and this potential franchise level QB sitting out there I think the Colts would go with Luck even Peyton did not have any surgeries.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I don't follow the relevance of a lottery system in the draft v. W/L record, but I do believe under the same circumtances of Manning's age, the bonus due on 3/8, and this potential franchise level QB sitting out there I think the Colts would go with Luck even Peyton did not have any surgeries.

It's basically the only way I could logically see the Colts ending up with the #1 pick if Manning was never injured. That's the only reason it was mentioned.

[Larry Horseman]

It's basically the only way I could logically see the Colts ending up with the #1 pick if Manning was never injured. That's the only reason it was mentioned.

To make it more realistic, let's say Manning blew his knee out on the first play of the year ala Brady, and the season unfolded like it did.

Irsay would draft Luck and keep Manning because a return from knee surgery is much more of a sure bet.

[UndecidedFrog]

In your hypothetical, I see Mr. Irsay moving forward with Luck for these reasons:

1) The probability of hitting the draft lottery for the #1 overall pick, coupled with the probability of a #1 QB of Luck's caliber entering the draft lottery in any year,

2) My current star QB is aging.

To me, it is a no-brainer.

In case anyone was curious what the probabilities may be for reason #1:

a) The probability of hitting the draft lottery for the #1 pick = 1/32

b) The probability of a #1 QB of Luck's caliber.... This is harder to quantify. If we assume that Luck is the best prospect since Manning (not Elway), and Manning was drafted in 1998, with an average QB class for an annual draft to be about 40, the probability = 1/560

Total probability = 1/17,920

[Scipio]

I think healthy to Irsay is that he can be given a near 100% assurance that Manning will be ready to roll by the start of the 2012 season. If that cannot be determined, then he will cut bait.

I will say though, that my gut feeling is that we are being strung along and Manning will remain a Colt.

[everybodysgotone]

I have 2 questions for you:

1) What do you think "healthy" means to Mr. Irsay?

2) What do you think "healthy" should mean to Mr. Irsay?

Manning being able to throw lasers into tight spots 35 yds downfield, 15 yd timed outs where the ball is on the way before the receiver looks, 50 yd posts over double coverage, etc. His timing and release are important as related to arm strength so he can avoid being hit repeatedly, as well.

[torgodog]

1) What do you think "healthy" means to Mr. Irsay?

2) What do you think "healthy" should mean to Mr. Irsay?

Healthy means the franchise quarterback can't use the complex to workout because of NFL rules. So by expressing doubts about his health and concerns about neck surgery recovery (without ever getting into specifics about nerves and triceps), Peyton gets to conveniently continue his rehabilitation.

What healthy should and probably does mean to Irsay would be progress concerning Peyton's velocity and accuracy since December. How you measure the progress would be something only Manning and Irsay would know.

[swflacoltsfans]

His words were " throwing it 50 yards in foxboro in ten degree weather."