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I hope Grigson brings in some "PUNISHERS"


bluephantom87

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Exactly, when you sign a big name guy, chances are they got the big name over years of producing and are closer to the end of their prime than the beginning. That being said, I would go with Suh over a runningback like AP/Murray/Marshawn if that were the case.

 

Exactly, but that's not the case with Suh. The Lions can literally not afford to sign him. That's the only reason he's even hitting the market. They can't even tag him. 

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pffft who cares. Then we can just bust out Ricky "Top 10 paid DT" Jean-Francois. It's a win-win. 

 

.

I would rather have a guy that kicks butt for 15 games, than a guy who is mediocre for 16.

Plus, he's never been suspended

 

He would command a lot of money.  We don't know how well he fits in a 3-4.  He's a repeat offender and the league probably has a close eye on him.  To me, all that screams "don't sign him!"

 

 

Also, Nick Fairley is a beast and a FA too. 

Fairley I like.  He would be much cheaper than Suh and doesn't have the bad reputation or history of Suh, but there are some work ethic and motivation questions with him

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He would command a lot of money.  We don't know how well he fits in a 3-4.  He's a repeat offender and the league probably has a close eye on him.  To me, all that screams "don't sign him!"

 

 

Fairley I like.  He would be much cheaper than Suh and doesn't have the bad reputation or history of Suh, but there are some work ethic and motivation questions with him

 

He only has 1 incident. He's as much a repeat offender as Walden (a guy who actually got suspended) is. 

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Yes. He's arguably the top DT in the NFL (no doubt top 3) and a complete game-wrecker. 

 

57 pressures on his own. The Colts top 2 edge rushers combined for 60. 

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

 

Nineteen NFL players making at least $15m/year. Only 5 are non-QBs. One is JJ Watt, enough said.

 

The other four are Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald (soon to be removed from this list, one way or the other), Mario Williams and Gerald McCoy. McCoy didn't switch teams, and actually got paid for high level production prior to his contract expiration year, and he was about two years younger than Suh will be.

 

The real relevant case is Mario Williams. He got $16m/year to switch teams (of the 32 highest paid players in the league, Williams is one of only two who switched teams; the other is Peyton Manning), went to a bad team and didn't bring any wins with him, had a "meh" season in Y1, and it can be argued that he's not even his team's best lineman (Kyle Williams) or pass rusher (Jerry Hughes). He's still been productive, and a really good player, but not $16m/year good, overall. 

 

And then, there's the question of impact. He's obviously a great player, but his team has finished sub .500 three of his five years in the league. Obviously not his fault, but the defenses haven't been impressive, either, for the most part. Again, not all his fault, but adding him to a team with several holes on the defense at $15m/year might not drastically improve the defense, and it eats up 10% of the team's cap over the next three seasons, making it more difficult to plug those holes. Even if he lives up to his price tag -- which is historically unlikely with highly paid free agents who switch teams -- the defense is still weak at ILB and safety, and still struggles to cover the middle of the field, and you can still run away from Suh's side.

 

I haven't even mentioned the scheme change. Nor am I sure he'll only get $15m/year. 

 

Law of diminishing returns, at this point. Even if Suh is twice as good as RJF, at most, he brings one additional win in the short term. And long term, he costs the team the cap flexibility that's needed to put good defensive players on the field with him.

 

I think the defense would benefit more from adding McCourty ($8m), Brandon Graham ($4m) and Nick Fairley ($5m), for a total of $17m/year. I think the overall impact would be greater, and there would be more flexibility moving forward. The defense needs playmakers, plural. Paying one guy $15m/year is a hard pill to swallow, even if he is a dominant player.

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Exactly, but that's not the case with Suh. The Lions can literally not afford to sign him. That's the only reason he's even hitting the market. They can't even tag him. 

 

They're currently at $125m for 2015, against a projected $140m cap. It would be difficult and costly, but they can restructure Johnson and Stafford if they have to. They can lose Tulloch and Pettigrew, and be close to $30m  under the cap in 2015, and another $50m under the cap in 2016, where they can dump more bonus and guaranteed money. They can't tag him, since his final year voids, but they can maneuver their cap to keep him, if they really want. 

 

All indications are that he leaves, though.

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Whether it be via the draft or FA this team needs an infusion of some NASTY guys who PLAY with a mean streak!! Most agree the focal point for the Colts (in no particular order) is a big bruising type rb, a MASSIVE nt who is not only strong but ATHLETIC that can command double teams, a big hard hitting safety and a ilb with some size that can lay the wood. Give me a couple of guys on the o-line who WANT to manhandle and plant opposing defenses into the ground. Now is the time to upgrade positions in order to truly get to the NEXT level by being able to compete and BEAT the elite teams starting with the Pats. If you want to build the monster you MUST HAVE SOME MONSTERS!!! I'm not as hard on Grigs as some because this is almost a complete turnover in the roster from a 2-14 team 3yrs ago. Players were needed to field a team AND be competitive! Yes there have been some misses (like ALL gms have) but on a whole there have been many more hits. Ask teams like the Raiders, Jags and Titans who have been stinking for some time now. Going into the offseason guys like Freeman, Chapman, Redding, Boom and Laundry (to name a few) are serviceable but NEED to be upgraded. As far as the coaching staff I STILL think some changes need to be made (which has been debated over and over) but with a continual improvement of the roster some flaws can be masked.

Yes!!! Serviceable is not going to cut it. Several of these guys should be depth, not in starting positions. Watching the replay of that 2nd half of the AFCCG on NFL Network was like watching a heavyweight title holder in the ring with an unconditioned amateur feather weight. Guys just getting railroaded like a bunch of bowling pins. IMO, the achievement and satisfaction of defeating Denver a week earlier was all but wiped out after that painful experience...I'm still asking myself, "Who is this defense"? What is their identity? Where is the consistency? I'm sick and tired of this stupid debacle that occurs every time this team faces NE. Our defense in particular, if they have any killer instinct whatsoever, should be chomping at the bit to get another crack at NE and sock these guys like they've embarrassed us...

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Here's what a potential contract for Suh would look like. Five years, $75m, $35m guaranteed, $5m signing bonus:

Year       Bonus       Salary      Cap Hit2015      1.0           11.0         12.02016      1.0           12.5         13.52017      1.0           14.0         15.02018      1.0           16.0         17.02019      1.0           16.5         17.5FA

That's pretty much pay as you go, with gradual increases that correspond with projected increases in the salary cap. Can't cut him in the first three years. 

 

That's pretty steep.

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Either way, its a lot of money tied up in one player not named Andrew Luck.

(For the record, I would love Suh on this defense, I just am afraid he will cost way too much.)

Big Dan Williams from Arizona Cardinals is another option if Suh proves to be too expensive.  He'd be a huge improvement to our defensive front as well.  Gotta add some punishers one way or another. 

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Here's what a potential contract for Suh would look like. Five years, $75m, $35m guaranteed, $5m signing bonus:

Year       Bonus       Salary      Cap Hit2015      1.0           11.0         12.02016      1.0           12.5         13.52017      1.0           14.0         15.02018      1.0           16.0         17.02019      1.0           16.5         17.5FA

That's pretty much pay as you go, with gradual increases that correspond with projected increases in the salary cap. Can't cut him in the first three years. 

 

That's pretty steep.

 

Wouldn't it make more sense to load up his contract a lot on the first year? Like $20M in the first year? We don't have any of our important guys up for contracts. 

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This topic is exactly what I was thinking when I saw how Happy and Excited Blount was running the ball against the Colts.  It was ridiculous seeing how at peace Blount was running free in the Colts secondary.  Him or Gray didn't need equipment because the Colts was not hitting them at all.  Hopefully Ryan will bring in some real monsters instead of these imaginary ones that got beat down in New England. 

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http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

 

Nineteen NFL players making at least $15m/year. Only 5 are non-QBs. One is JJ Watt, enough said.

 

The other four are Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald (soon to be removed from this list, one way or the other), Mario Williams and Gerald McCoy. McCoy didn't switch teams, and actually got paid for high level production prior to his contract expiration year, and he was about two years younger than Suh will be.

 

The real relevant case is Mario Williams. He got $16m/year to switch teams (of the 32 highest paid players in the league, Williams is one of only two who switched teams; the other is Peyton Manning), went to a bad team and didn't bring any wins with him, had a "meh" season in Y1, and it can be argued that he's not even his team's best lineman (Kyle Williams) or pass rusher (Jerry Hughes). He's still been productive, and a really good player, but not $16m/year good, overall. 

 

And then, there's the question of impact. He's obviously a great player, but his team has finished sub .500 three of his five years in the league. Obviously not his fault, but the defenses haven't been impressive, either, for the most part. Again, not all his fault, but adding him to a team with several holes on the defense at $15m/year might not drastically improve the defense, and it eats up 10% of the team's cap over the next three seasons, making it more difficult to plug those holes. Even if he lives up to his price tag -- which is historically unlikely with highly paid free agents who switch teams -- the defense is still weak at ILB and safety, and still struggles to cover the middle of the field, and you can still run away from Suh's side.

 

I haven't even mentioned the scheme change. Nor am I sure he'll only get $15m/year. 

 

Law of diminishing returns, at this point. Even if Suh is twice as good as RJF, at most, he brings one additional win in the short term. And long term, he costs the team the cap flexibility that's needed to put good defensive players on the field with him.

 

I think the defense would benefit more from adding McCourty ($8m), Brandon Graham ($4m) and Nick Fairley ($5m), for a total of $17m/year. I think the overall impact would be greater, and there would be more flexibility moving forward. The defense needs playmakers, plural. Paying one guy $15m/year is a hard pill to swallow, even if he is a dominant player.

 

I think you are severely underrating what those 3 free agents you brought up are going to get.

 

As for your other points, I'm not looking at the difference in record of Suh vs RJF. We can throw Ricardo Matthews out there as starter and win 10 games. Because we play in a crap division and have a franchise QB. We can throw Griff Whalen out there over TY and still probably make the playoffs. But I'm not going to say that when TY is up for contract that we should let him walk and just roll with Griff, because while it won't change the win output significantly, it still lowers the quality of your team.

 

Signing Suh gives you the opportunity to give you a young, dominant, generational talent to build your defense around. Not around a guy like Graham (who I like) who wasn't even a starter on his previous team. 

 

And the real fact of the matter is that I don't think Grigson is capable of putting together a good defense through free agency. So I'd rather just sign Suh than watch Grigson hand out big contracts to guys like Brook Reeds, Pat Sims, and Rey Maulaluga. If I had any faith that Grigson would do the things you outlined, I wouldn't be campaigning so hard for Suh. 

 

my thinking is "hey, if we are going to spend a ton of money in FA, I'd rather spend it on a guy you know is going to dominate than a few 3rd tier rejects"

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I think you are severely underrating what those 3 free agents you brought up are going to get.

 

As for your other points, I'm not looking at the difference in record of Suh vs RJF. We can throw Ricardo Matthews out there as starter and win 10 games. Because we play in a crap division and have a franchise QB. We can throw Griff Whalen out there over TY and still probably make the playoffs. But I'm not going to say that when TY is up for contract that we should let him walk and just roll with Griff, because while it won't change the win output significantly, it still lowers the quality of your team.

 

Signing Suh gives you the opportunity to give you a young, dominant, generational talent to build your defense around. Not around a guy like Graham (who I like) who wasn't even a starter on his previous team. 

 

And the real fact of the matter is that I don't think Grigson is capable of putting together a good defense through free agency. So I'd rather just sign Suh than watch Grigson hand out big contracts to guys like Brook Reeds, Pat Sims, and Rey Maulaluga. If I had any faith that Grigson would do the things you outlined, I wouldn't be campaigning so hard for Suh. 

 

my thinking is "hey, if we are going to spend a ton of money in FA, I'd rather spend it on a guy you know is going to dominate than a few 3rd tier rejects"

 

Two words.

 

Salary Cap.

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I think you are severely underrating what those 3 free agents you brought up are going to get.

 

As for your other points, I'm not looking at the difference in record of Suh vs RJF. We can throw Ricardo Matthews out there as starter and win 10 games. Because we play in a crap division and have a franchise QB. We can throw Griff Whalen out there over TY and still probably make the playoffs. But I'm not going to say that when TY is up for contract that we should let him walk and just roll with Griff, because while it won't change the win output significantly, it still lowers the quality of your team.

 

Signing Suh gives you the opportunity to give you a young, dominant, generational talent to build your defense around. Not around a guy like Graham (who I like) who wasn't even a starter on his previous team. 

 

And the real fact of the matter is that I don't think Grigson is capable of putting together a good defense through free agency. So I'd rather just sign Suh than watch Grigson hand out big contracts to guys like Brook Reeds, Pat Sims, and Rey Maulaluga. If I had any faith that Grigson would do the things you outlined, I wouldn't be campaigning so hard for Suh. 

 

my thinking is "hey, if we are going to spend a ton of money in FA, I'd rather spend it on a guy you know is going to dominate than a few 3rd tier rejects"

 

I might be underrated those three guys. I don't know about severely... Who knows what Suh gets, anyways? You say $15m, but Watt got $16.6m, and he didn't even get close to free agency. Suh could wind up at $17m or more. The point was that for around the same money, and with more flexibility, you do more to address the holes on the defense. 

 

As for what Grigson is going to do, I don't have anymore faith that he'll go after Suh than I do that he'll go after the three guys I mentioned. And none of those guys are third tier rejects.

 

Your points about the difference between really good players and average/marginal guys is well taken, but winning games every week is the objective. If we had Suh this season, I don't see us going from 11 wins to 13. Maybe, but I think we had issues that one player doesn't fix. And if you pay that one guy $15m/year, it's that much harder to build anything around him.

 

I get the draw. It's a huge swing, I just think the chances of it working out are minimal, and even if it does, I don't think it has the impact our defense really needs. That's setting aside the potential for injury, ignoring that he's not exactly the model citizen, etc. We're just talking about practicality.

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Wouldn't it make more sense to load up his contract a lot on the first year? Like $20M in the first year? We don't have any of our important guys up for contracts. 

 

Yes and no. That's what the Texans did with JJ Watt. And it kind of doesn't matter if the first three years are mostly guaranteed, but you can stagger the guarantees, and conduct / PED clauses can void future guarantees.

 

But the cap is a total number, not just a year to year number. Whatever you don't spend today, you can spend tomorrow, but once it's spent, that's it. I'd be fine with blowing whatever we can on a guy like Watt, with whom there is zero doubt. But I'd much rather pay along the way, or even slightly backload, with a guy like Suh, who would be changing teams and schemes, and would come with some question marks (Is he only about the money? Is he going to get suspended for punting a guy in the crotch? and so on...) Yeah, let's pay as we go. 

 

And that's mostly how Grigson and Mike Bluem have been doing their contracts so far. The only two exceptions are the two guys who have really given us buyer's remorse -- Landry and Cherilus.

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Wow. Thanks. You have really shed light on this issue.

 

You know what that means,  but if you want more -- fine.

 

We're about to give Luck roughly 6/150 with 75/80 guaranteed.   Maybe even 8/200 with 100 guaranteed.

 

If we get a hometown discount,  it won't be much.

 

TYH is about to get roughly 5/45 with 25 guaranteed.

 

AC is about to get 5/40 or 5/45 with roughly half guaranteed.

 

I haven't even gotten to the two tight ends.

 

And if the players I mentioned don't get their deals this off-season, then they're coming next off-season.

 

To get Suh, we'd need roughly 6/100 with half guaranteed.    Maybe more.

 

I don't think we can make those numbers work.

 

Salary cap.

 

Is that enough light?

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You know what that means,  but if you want more -- fine.

 

We're about to give Luck roughly 6/150 with 75/80 guaranteed.   Maybe even 8/200 with 100 guaranteed.

 

If we get a hometown discount,  it won't be much.

 

TYH is about to get roughly 5/45 with 25 guaranteed.

 

AC is about to get 5/40 or 5/45 with roughly half guaranteed.

 

I haven't even gotten to the two tight ends.

 

And if the players I mentioned don't get their deals this off-season, then they're coming next off-season.

 

To get Suh, we'd need roughly 6/100 with half guaranteed.    Maybe more.

 

I don't think we can make those numbers work.

 

Salary cap.

 

Is that enough light?

 

I already know all this. I've ran the numbers. It's manageable. You're not bringing anything new to the table. 

 

I've done my due diligence. Please assume that from this point on that I have a semblance of an idea what I am talking about. 

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I have a series of realistic cuts (Landry, Richardson, Thomas, Phillips) bringing us up to about $43M in cap space for the 2015 off-season. We can also June 1st cut Cherilus and re-structure RJF. Giving us around $49M. That's more than enough for Suh + a few other guys.

 

Then we can focus on Castanzo and TY. We re-sign one of the two tight-ends next off-season. Luck is still under contract for 2 years. 

 

This is manageable. For whatever you say about Grigson, we are in fantastic cap shape. 

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I have a series of realistic cuts (Landry, Richardson, Thomas, Phillips) bringing us up to about $43M in cap space for the 2015 off-season. We can also June 1st cut Cherilus and re-structure RJF. Giving us around $49M. That's more than enough for Suh + a few other guys.

 

Then we can focus on Castanzo and TY. We re-sign one of the two tight-ends next off-season. Luck is still under contract for 2 years. 

 

This is manageable. For whatever you say about Grigson, we are in fantastic cap shape. 

So it's manageable. I definitely wouldn't complain either way. Both you and Superman bring up good points. One question though..

 

Does he fit our scheme? Or is Suh just that good that he's basically fit in anywhere? I believe Detriot runs a 4-3, right?

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I already know all this. I've ran the numbers. It's manageable. You're not bringing anything new to the table. 

 

I've done my due diligence. Please assume that from this point on that I have a semblance of an idea what I am talking about. 

 

If you think you know enough to be a salary cap expert on par with those who run football teams, then you've got a serious, serious problem.

 

And don't ever ask me for information that you haven't revealed that you know only to turn around and tell me that you know it and that what I offered wasn't necessary.

 

You haven't earned that benefit of the doubt,  no matter how much you're in love with yourself.

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If you think you know enough to be a salary cap expert on par with those who run football teams, then you've got a serious, serious problem.

 

Yes, because that's what I said. These starwmans are un-becoming. 

 

 

You haven't earned that benefit of the doubt,  no matter how much you're in love with yourself.

 

 

You got one thing right, I love me some me. 

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Yes, because that's what I said. These starwmans are un-becoming. 

 

 

You got one thing right, I love me some me. 

No.   That's not what you said.

 

I offered an explanation as to why we couldn't afford Suh.    Salary cap.

 

You, sarcastically said,  "thanks, you really shed light on that"....     and yet,  you knew full-well what I meant.   So, in essence, you were asking for an explanation.

 

What you COULD have said, and SHOULD have said, is this.....   "I know it looks like we probably can't afford to sign Suh, but I've crunched the numbers and I believe we can..."      But did you say that?    No.

 

So, I offered the explanation.....

 

And you responded that not only had you crunched the numbers, but for future purposes,  I should assume that you've always done the work and you're always right.

 

Oh really?     Seriously?

 

Try this on for size....

 

Try adding this to all of your posts....    this can be your new signature tag line to end every post....

 

"I,  Dustin, am officially the smartest person here.   I am always right.    You can never tell me anything I don't know.   You are allowed to agree with me and "like" my posts.   But don't ever question me or disagree with me, because I am always right."

 

See how that goes over here on Colts.com.   

 

Strawman?    Please.   Don't use words you don't know what they really mean.

 

Over the past year, you've developed a bad habit of trying to sand bag other posters to show how smart you think you are.

 

You give short declarative sentences and when people disagree, you insist you're right and when the issue is pressed,  THEN you trot out your trusty stats.   You simply could've inserted that information in your first post all along and had a better discussion.    But it's a way to try to make you look smarter than you are.   It's been going on for about a year now, and you just tried to pull that nonsense on me.

 

Not any more.

 

I don't know what's gotten into you,  but if you think I'm buying what you're selling,  you're sadly mistaken.....

 

I'm urging you in the strongest possible terms -- rethink this approach.    It's unbecoming...

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No.   That's not what you said.

 

I offered an explanation as to why we couldn't afford Suh.    Salary cap.

 

You, sarcastically said,  "thanks, you really shed light on that"....     and yet,  you knew full-well what I meant.   So, in essence, you were asking for an explanation.

 

The fact that you think you even had to mention salary cap is ridiculous. It's the whole premise of the comments in this thread. Everybody is talking about if it's possible to sign him and you bust in like you have some secret knowledge about how the NFL cap works. No, you added nothing. 

 

What you COULD have said, and SHOULD have said, is this.....   "I know it looks like we probably can't afford to sign Suh, but I've crunched the numbers and I believe we can..."      But did you say that?    No.

 

 

If you are actually upset about how I worded an internet post, you should re-evaluate your priorities.

 

Strawman?    Please.   Don't use words you don't know what they really mean.

 

This is rich really. Grade A-stuff. You say that I think I'm smarter than NFL GMs (something I didn't say or even imply) and get angry when you get called out for a strawman. You should be the one looking up the definition.

 

Over the past year, you've developed a bad habit of trying to sand bag other posters to show how smart you think you are.

 

You give short declarative sentences and when people disagree, you insist you're right and when the issue is pressed,  THEN you trot out your trusty stats.   You simply could've inserted that information in your first post all along and had a better discussion.    But it's a way to try to make you look smarter than you are.   It's been going on for about a year now, and you just tried to pull that nonsense on me.

 

 

 

Don't take it personally. I'm a huge self-confessed narcissist. 

 

Not any more.

 

I don't know what's gotten into you,  but if you think I'm buying what you're selling,  you're sadly mistaken.....

 

I'm urging you in the strongest possible terms -- rethink this approach.    It's unbecoming...

 

 

Whoa, c'mon man let's not get crazy now. 

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The irony in this:

 

 

You give short declarative sentences and when people disagree, you insist you're right and when the issue is pressed,  THEN you trot out your trusty stats.   You simply could've inserted that information in your first post all along and had a better discussion.    But it's a way to try to make you look smarter than you are.   It's been going on for about a year now, and you just tried to pull that nonsense on me.

 

 

When you just did this:

 

 

Two words.

 

Salary Cap.

 

 

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The fact that you think you even had to mention salary cap is ridiculous. It's the whole premise of the comments in this thread. Everybody is talking about if it's possible to sign him and you bust in like you have some secret knowledge about how the NFL cap works. No, you added nothing. 

 

You're the person who asserted we can afford to add Suh and still do major deals with all our other players.   And you did so without offering up a shred of math.    You didn't even say you had crunched the numbers.    No proof whatsoever.   You just offered it up as your genius and basically asked everyone here to assume you're right.    And when challenged,  you didn't like it.    Narcissist?    I'm not sure that begins to cover it...

 

 

If you are actually upset about how I worded an internet post, you should re-evaluate your priorities.

 

I don't like being condescended to.  I don't like someone telling me not to challenge or question them and that I should just assume that they're right.    I don't like someone acting as if they're doing me a favor responding to my post.  I'd prefer you didn't respond.    I like adult conversation, which I have with lots of people here,  and yet apparently that appears to be difficult for you.

 

This is rich really. Grade A-stuff. You say that I think I'm smarter than NFL GMs (something I didn't say or even imply) and get angry when you get called out for a strawman. You should be the one looking up the definition. 

 

If you think you know as much as a GM, which is what you're implying by saying we can afford Suh without offering a shred of proof so that others can see your thinking,  your homework,   then I'm not worried about any Strawman, because that's not what this is.    You're just being called on your stuff and you don't much like it.    Big surprise!

 

 

Don't take it personally. I'm a huge self-confessed narcissist. 

 

 

Whoa, c'mon man let's not get crazy now. 

 

I'm not even sure I got this mad with a poster even in the Glory Days of JShipp or BurlsKids....   and those two were absolutely crazy!

 

Consider it an odd compliment.    I wouldn't be this mad if I didn't like you.    (Not that you care...)

 

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