For All Those Who Want Luck (merge)

[John Waylon]

I guess this is a fair thread to start with the other one being that far back, and really no way to search specifically for this topic. And it could potentially hijack another thread discussing Luck, so even though it's a duplicate thread, it gets a pass.

Like I said, I don't see it happening. I don't think the Stanford coaching staff minus Harbaugh only looks about half as good as they did in years past. Staying another year could hurt his stock.

[pacolts56]

It has I have brought up this point saying that Luck could go back to school and in fact I think I started a thread called for all those who want Luck to talk about this very topic, I could be wrong now that I think about it I put it in the thread about Luck.

Anyways the general response has been no way does the guy go back to school because fans who want him don't want him to go back to school.

Okay....forget what anyone on this board has said and why they've said it, and let's simply explore some of Andrew Luck's options and possible outcomes, assuming he solidifies his anticipated #1 status and the Colts do wind up at #1 overall.

Choice 1 - Enter the 2012 draft and be selected by the Colts and mentored by Peyton Manning.

OR

Choice 2 - Go back to Stanford for another season and take a chance on winding up in places like....

A. Seattle....where Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst can teach him all about being a great NFL QB on a crap team under Head Coach and Executive VP Pete Carroll.

B. Cincinnati....where he'll have the Bengals' stellar front office ready to surround him with the best offensive weapons available anywhere in the US prison system.

C. Oakland.....two words, Al Davis.

D. His living room.....because he spent an additional season in college and got injured. Yes, injury can happen any time and yes, he no doubt has himself insured. But you get the idea.

By making the choice of returning to school simply to avoid sitting and learning....Andrew Luck would not only lose the opportuntiy of gaining incredibly valuable advice under Peyton Manning that could help him in the long-term, but his decision could backfire badly and wind up being too clever by half when the following draft day rolls around and Mike Brown or Al Davis is on the other end of the phone.

There is considerable downside risk in him staying another year at Stanford....regardless of whether anyone wants him in a Colts uniform or not.

[GoColts8818]

Okay....forget what anyone on this board has said and why they've said it, and let's simply explore some of Andrew Luck's options and possible outcomes, assuming he solidifies his anticipated #1 status and the Colts do wind up at #1 overall.

Choice 1 - Enter the 2012 draft and be selected by the Colts and mentored by Peyton Manning.

OR

Choice 2 - Go back to Stanford for another season and take a chance on winding up in places like....

A. Seattle....where Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst can teach him all about being a great NFL QB on a crap team under Head Coach and Executive VP Pete Carroll.

B. Cincinnati....where he'll have the Bengals' stellar front office ready to surround him with the best offensive weapons available anywhere in the US prison system.

C. Oakland.....two words, Al Davis.

D. His living room.....because he spent an additional season in college and got injured. Yes, injury can happen any time and yes, he no doubt has himself insured. But you get the idea.

By making the choice of returning to school simply to avoid sitting and learning....Andrew Luck would not only lose the opportuntiy of gaining incredibly valuable advice under Peyton Manning that could help him in the long-term, but his decision could backfire badly and wind up being too clever by half when the following draft day rolls around and Mike Brown or Al Davis is on the other end of the phone.

There is considerable downside risk in him staying another year at Stanford....regardless of whether anyone wants him in a Colts uniform or not.

You really think it's unreasonable to think a kid might not want to sit for the first four years of his career? Players want to play not sit and learn even if it's from Peyton Manning. I've have said many times the odds say there is a good chance Luck comes out but I do think there is a chance he's going to look at the Colts IF we are in this spot (which I don't think we will be) and go gee you know I don't want to sit for four years.

[ruksak]

You really think it's unreasonable to think a kid might not want to sit for the first four years of his career? Players want to play not sit and learn even if it's from Peyton Manning. I've have said many times the odds say there is a good chance Luck comes out but I do think there is a chance he's going to look at the Colts IF we are in this spot (which I don't think we will be) and go gee you know I don't want to sit for four years.

Just from a salary cap standpoint, it seems like a logistical nightmare trying to accommodate a blue -chip franchise QB as a back-up for several years. Nevermind what a QB of this caliber might feel about spending the first 3-4 years of his career as a sedentary ornament.

I don't feel we'll get the pick anyway, from there it just gets even more unlikely.

[GoColts8818]

Just from a salary cap standpoint, it seems like a logistical nightmare trying to accommodate a blue -chip franchise QB as a back-up for several years. Nevermind what a QB of this caliber might feel about spending the first 3-4 years of his career as a sedentary ornament.

I don't feel we'll get the pick anyway, from there it just gets even more unlikely.

I agree I don't think we'll get the pick.

Also I can hear the fans complaining already that if we did take Luck that we didn't do anything to address a real need and we wasted a pick on a guy who isn't even playing. The only thing I feel pretty good about in the up coming draft that is no matter what we do someone is going to rip Polian for it because it's going to make them mad. I am not saying that to take a shot at anyone either I am saying it because there are a lot of options out there right now and people seem to be getting behind different ones.

[pacolts56]

You really think it's unreasonable to think a kid might not want to sit for the first four years of his career? Players want to play not sit and learn even if it's from Peyton Manning. I've have said many times the odds say there is a good chance Luck comes out but I do think there is a chance he's going to look at the Colts IF we are in this spot (which I don't think we will be) and go gee you know I don't want to sit for four years.

Nope....it's not unreasonable that he would think that...and I didn't say that it was.

All I pointed out were the possible choices he'll have, and that by deciding he doesn't want to sit behind Manning for the presumed 4 years and opts for a return to Stanford....it could be a decision that ends up being a terrible one.

[John Waylon]

Just from a salary cap standpoint, it seems like a logistical nightmare trying to accommodate a blue -chip franchise QB as a back-up for several years. Nevermind what a QB of this caliber might feel about spending the first 3-4 years of his career as a sedentary ornament.

I don't feel we'll get the pick anyway, from there it just gets even more unlikely.

I don't know about this... I think, after all that's happened, Tony Dungy's prediction that Manning would retire at the end of next season seems entirely fair. I personally think Manning will play no longer than the season after that. So that would be Luck with two years behind Manning. Now, Luck being the heir to the throne would see significant playing time in his second season. So he would be earning some of his salary then.

But I think, after everything that's happened with Manning this year, it's downright foolish to think he will be here for the fourth and fifth year of his deal, as sad it is it.

We want Manning to mentor our next QB. To instill any knowledge he can into the kid, and I think Peyton will be happy to do it. If Manning can give teach Luck even just a small amount of things, with Luck's physical skills, it's going to make him a top 5 QB in this league, and having that for our franchise for the next 15 years would be really, really nice.

[pacolts56]

I agree I don't think we'll get the pick.

Also I can hear the fans complaining already that if we did take Luck that we didn't do anything to address a real need and we wasted a pick on a guy who isn't even playing. The only thing I feel pretty good about in the up coming draft that is no matter what we do someone is going to rip Polian for it because it's going to make them mad. I am not saying that to take a shot at anyone either I am saying it because there are a lot of options out there right now and people seem to be getting behind different ones.

Remembering of course that we'd have 7 draft picks at the top of each round....and Polian has done pretty darn well in rounds 2-7 over the years.

[Jason_]

We want Manning to mentor our next QB. To instill any knowledge he can into the kid, and I think Peyton will be happy to do it. If Manning can give teach Luck even just a small amount of things, with Luck's physical skills, it's going to make him a top 5 QB in this league, and having that for our franchise for the next 15 years would be really, really nice.

I'm sure they'll have a better idea of Peyton's long-term health come draft time. I'm not putting anything into what Dungy says....he was the same one who said no way Manning doesn't play in the opener.

To address the part I quoted though, I fully agree with the idea...take a QB who has the physical tools and pass on as much knowledge as you can. Help him perfect his mechanics, work on him with reading defenses, going through his progressions etc. The thing is though, Andrew Luck is not the only QB we can do this with. I have yet to read anything that says Luck's physical abilities surpass the other top rated QB prospects. If that is the case then so be it but so far I haven't seen anything myself nor read any reports that indicate otherwise. Every scouting report says Luck is the highly rated prospect he is due to his pro-readiness. Even if Manning does come back only for 2 more years at the most, he can take a QB that is not as pro-ready as Luck and work with him to make him pro-ready.

[MAC]

Remembering of course that we'd have 7 draft picks at the top of each round....and Polian has done pretty darn well in rounds 2-7 over the years.

Alright! With seven draft picks at the top of each round we can restock the entire team!

[GoColts8818]

Remembering of course that we'd have 7 draft picks at the top of each round....and Polian has done pretty darn well in rounds 2-7 over the years.

of course and in fact I have even said in earlier threads that our second round pick in all likely hood is only going to be handful of spots behind where we normally pick in round one so we are going to get the same quality of player we normally do so for the Colts it's sorta like having two first round picks.

WIth that said, our first pick should be a really high pick and should be a really good player for years to come from almost day one. If we use that pick on a QB there is going to be a group of Colts fans that is going to complain we wasted that pick on a QB rather than useing it on a CB or WR or something that would have been of more help.

I listed the five areas I see us going in round one and QB is one of those poistions. I don't know if that's what I would use the pick on by I can see why the Colts would. I just know there is going to be a group of fans that wont like the pick because it doesn't help us right way (unless the worst fears about Peyton are true). By the same token if we pass on a QB there is going to be a group of fans who are going to be upset we didn't take the QB because the odds of us being in this poistion to get one that high again with Manning are small based on past results.

[mightisright]

Just from a salary cap standpoint, it seems like a logistical nightmare trying to accommodate a blue -chip franchise QB as a back-up for several years. Nevermind what a QB of this caliber might feel about spending the first 3-4 years of his career as a sedentary ornament.

I don't feel we'll get the pick anyway, from there it just gets even more unlikely.

What he said! What I've been saying all along!

[mightisright]

of course and in fact I have even said in earlier threads that our second round pick in all likely hood is only going to be handful of spots behind where we normally pick in round one so we are going to get the same quality of player we normally do so for the Colts it's sorta like having two first round picks.

WIth that said, our first pick should be a really high pick and should be a really good player for years to come from almost day one. If we use that pick on a QB there is going to be a group of Colts fans that is going to complain we wasted that pick on a QB rather than useing it on a CB or WR or something that would have been of more help.

I listed the five areas I see us going in round one and QB is one of those poistions. I don't know if that's what I would use the pick on by I can see why the Colts would. I just know there is going to be a group of fans that wont like the pick because it doesn't help us right way (unless the worst fears about Peyton are true). By the same token if we pass on a QB there is going to be a group of fans who are going to be upset we didn't take the QB because the odds of us being in this poistion to get one that high again with Manning are small based on past results.

I've said this before but I'll say it again. And based on previous posts I think you'll agree. We should use the good draft position to maximize the talent around MANNING. Remember him, our QB? Don't count him out yet people. We don't know anything yet. Until we do the plan should be to get him a few more rings! Then when he retires or gets injured, then we take our licks for a season like the rest of them and get the next great QB. There's always an IT QB everybody's talking about. Remember all the hype about Vince Young? How'd that work out? Lets focus on the next few years with the GOAT. Not leverage Manning's next few years over QB drama. You really want a Tim Teabow situation? That'll be fun! I'm not ranting at any particular person, I'm just a over the Luck bandwagon.

[pacolts56]

of course and in fact I have even said in earlier threads that our second round pick in all likely hood is only going to be handful of spots behind where we normally pick in round one so we are going to get the same quality of player we normally do so for the Colts it's sorta like having two first round picks.

WIth that said, our first pick should be a really high pick and should be a really good player for years to come from almost day one. If we use that pick on a QB there is going to be a group of Colts fans that is going to complain we wasted that pick on a QB rather than useing it on a CB or WR or something that would have been of more help.

I listed the five areas I see us going in round one and QB is one of those poistions. I don't know if that's what I would use the pick on by I can see why the Colts would. I just know there is going to be a group of fans that wont like the pick because it doesn't help us right way (unless the worst fears about Peyton are true). By the same token if we pass on a QB there is going to be a group of fans who are going to be upset we didn't take the QB because the odds of us being in this poistion to get one that high again with Manning are small based on past results.

I'll be fine with whatever the Polian's do because I'm confident they'll know alot more about Peyton's medical condition and will have a clearer idea as to his career shelf life.

If Peyton indicates a 1-2 year timeframe then IMO, Luck is well worth taking.....if it's 3-4 years and someone is ready to fess up a bunch of draft picks, then we should milk the pick for all its worth.

[cranium cramp]

Yea, this is coming from a guy with the infamous "caricature of a guy murdering himself over a keyboard/PC" meme. Man, I try to get away from that meme all the time, but it follows me everywhere. Honestly, I hope the mods make you remove it, because that type of avatar really has no place here on an all-ages forum.

It was a joke, build yourself a bridge and get over it. As for my avatar, it's a cartoon for petes sake. Tom and Jerry......Simpsons........Family guy.......Kids see MUCH worse then a guy typing himself to death on T.V. on a daily basis. I must say I am glad the MODS do not enforce your values upon us all.

[Jason_]

I know this is kind of a silly thing to say because no such rule will ever be put in place....however, if the NFL were to pass a rule before this year's draft that an NFL team could only select 1 player from a particular school, I'd take Coby Fleener TE from Stanford over Luck....NOT AS A FIRST ROUND PICK...want to clarify that before anyone twists my words. However, I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps the 3 Stanford TE's who are all 6'6" to 6'8", block like TE's but run and catch like WR's are as important to their offensive success, if not moreso, than Luck is.

[pacolts56]

I know this is kind of a silly thing to say because no such rule will ever be put in place....however, if the NFL were to pass a rule before this year's draft that an NFL team could only select 1 player from a particular school, I'd take Coby Fleener TE from Stanford over Luck....NOT AS A FIRST ROUND PICK...want to clarify that before anyone twists my words. However, I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps the 3 Stanford TE's who are all 6'6" to 6'8", block like TE's but run and catch like WR's are as important to their offensive success, if not moreso, than Luck is.

They are excellent TEs.... but factor in that 2 of Luck's leading WRs from last year graduated. And both those guys out-produced these TEs by a considerable margin and is usually the case.

But Luck has a high comfort level with his veteran TEs and uses them liberally and lethally. Testimony to the fact that he can and does identify the most effective targets in his offense. Yesterday.... he was nearly flawless in doing so. If your TE is winning his match-up like Fleener was all day long.... then a smart QB identifies it and exploits it.

Football-smart QB to athletic TE...... sound familiar?

Oh....and by the way.... Andrew Luck called his own plays yesterday out of a no-huddle offense..... thoughts?

http://content.usato...uddle-offense/1

[Balzer40]

They are excellent TEs.... but factor in that 2 of Luck's leading WRs from last year graduated. And both those guys out-produced these TEs by a considerable margin and is usually the case.

But Luck has a high comfort level with his veteran TEs and uses them liberally and lethally. Testimony to the fact that he can and does identify the most effective targets in his offense. Yesterday.... he was nearly flawless in doing so. If your TE is winning his match-up like Fleener was all day long.... then a smart QB identifies it and exploits it.

Football-smart QB to athletic TE...... sound familiar?

Oh....and by the way.... Andrew Luck called his own plays yesterday out of a no-huddle offense..... thoughts?

http://content.usato...uddle-offense/1

That's what makes him so much better than any other prospect. It baffles me how people keep trying to find a way to make this kid out to be much less than he really is. Oh well, they can keep trying, but they'll keep failing!

[pacolts56]

That's what makes him so much better than any other prospect. It baffles me how people keep trying to find a way to make this kid out to be much less than he really is. Oh well, they can keep trying, but they'll keep failing!

He parts his hair on the wrong side... and orders anchovies on his pizza. Trade the pick!!!

[Balzer40]

He parts his hair on the wrong side... and orders anchovies on his pizza. Trade the pick!!!

Lol.

[Mexicolt]

Here's what really matters:

You take Luck and keep Peyton, you lose, you just git better at the bench, you did not get any better on the field.

The only way you draft Luck is if you know Peyton is not gonna be the same, in which case, you let him walk, trade him and get another first round pick in order to get Luck AND another impact player, then you are rebuilding.

If Peyton is coming back, and you are coninced he'll be the same, then you trade that 1st overall pick (I'm sure we'll get it) and reload not rebuild, but reload, so you can give Peyton the talent around him.

Nothing more stupid than sitting Luck YOU JUST GET BETTER ON THE BENCH and lose in the end, 'cause you don't surround your QB with any talent.

[pacolts56]

Here's what really matters:

You take Luck and keep Peyton, you lose, you just git better at the bench, you did not get any better on the field.

The only way you draft Luck is if you know Peyton is not gonna be the same, in which case, you let him walk, trade him and get another first round pick in order to get Luck AND another impact player, then you are rebuilding.

If Peyton is coming back, and you are coninced he'll be the same, then you trade that 1st overall pick (I'm sure we'll get it) and reload not rebuild, but reload, so you can give Peyton the talent around him.

Nothing more stupid than sitting Luck YOU JUST GET BETTER ON THE BENCH and lose in the end, 'cause you don't surround your QB with any talent.

If the Colts and the doctors make the determination that Peyton is fully rehabbed, and Peyton fully intends to play out his 4 remaining years.... then you are correct, we should milk every last drop of compensation we can get out of the 1st overall pick.

Anything short of that... like a 1-2 year window, and I would favor drafting Luck.

[Malakai432]

1. One I don't know why people automatically assume Peyton is going to comeback for 4 years. I personally think 3 max.

2. He could still get injured.

3. He might not be the same.

I think they would have to be * to pass up on Luck, Landry or Berkly. Then what? Pick up a middle of the pack QB and HOPE Manning can groom him into angood QB?

Colts are having a bad year, they need to start looking for a future QB and you have a great QB class coming out next year if all decide to go into the draft.

It's a hypothetical but I'm pretty sure Colts WOULDNT be stupid enough to pass up on a solid first round QB if they had the chance. This is the perfect year to do it, acquire other talent through the rest of the draft, UDFA and FA.

[ALuck12]

Kellen Moore ladies and gents. I think he is a better fit for us. We draft him and let him be under Manning until Manning retires, and then we have a nice and ready to go QB that is ready to pick up where Manning left.

[Jason_]

They are excellent TEs.... but factor in that 2 of Luck's leading WRs from last year graduated. And both those guys out-produced these TEs by a considerable margin and is usually the case.

But Luck has a high comfort level with his veteran TEs and uses them liberally and lethally. Testimony to the fact that he can and does identify the most effective targets in his offense. Yesterday.... he was nearly flawless in doing so. If your TE is winning his match-up like Fleener was all day long.... then a smart QB identifies it and exploits it.

Football-smart QB to athletic TE...... sound familiar?

Oh....and by the way.... Andrew Luck called his own plays yesterday out of a no-huddle offense..... thoughts?

http://content.usato...uddle-offense/1

First of all I would like to sincerely thank you for actually reading my post and then countering with a logical argument and not twisting my words or putting words in my mouth. What I get so sick of are the people who simply come back with 'nah man you're stupid, Lucks the best cause they say so".

The point is I do have some legitimate (imo) concerns about Luck in general and how well he would fit with the Colts.

1. Luck easily has the best running game among the top QB prospects. The games I've seen, they go jumbo packages quite a bit and establish the run very early on. This opens up play action....honestly I don't think I've seen a team utilize play action as effectively as Stanford. However, in the Pros, no matter how good the running game is, it's going to get shut down or at least contained from time to time. How will Luck react and be able to produce in that situation? I went so far as to look at the box scores for every game he's played in since the start of the 2010 season hoping to find a game that might answer this question but I couldn't. There were only 3 games in all of last season and the 4 so far this season where Stanford averaged less than 4.0 ypc (side note, that's pretty awesome...only 3 games under 4 ypc) but Luck's numbers were not consistent. Here are his numbers from those games:

att-cmp-INT YDS TD Stanford's team rushing numbers

Arizona State (W) Luck, Andrew 33-41-1 292 0 42 car, 128 yds, 3.0 ypc

Notre Dame (W) Luck, Andrew 19-32-2 238 1 44 car, 166 yds, 3.8 ypc

San Jose State (W) Luck, Andrew 17-26-0 171 2 40 car, 141 yds, 3.5 ypc

In the first 2 games it would seem he struggled a little bit with more picks than TDs but the 3rd game he was efficient and took care of the football. Still in each of these games, they ran the ball over 40 times so that would still open play action even if the ypc isn't what they're normally used to.

2. How will Luck fare against a top-ranked defense. The pac-12 isn't exactly known for stellar defense and yes I happily volunteer the same question could be raised in evaluating Nick Foles and Matt Barkley. I saw that Stanford played Va Tech in last year's bowl game and Luck played incredibly well but I couldn't find any numbers that would give an idea of how good the Hokie defense was last year. I would like to see Stanford make it to a Bowl game against a team like Alabama, LSU or Florida. I would like to see how Luck handles a bigger, stronger more pro-style defense.

3. This kind of goes back to #1...the experts like to question QB's that come from spread style offense citing the inflated stats and things like that. Many feel that QB's and WR's from a spread offense are more a product of their system. So in regards to Luck, isn't it at least possible (I'm not saying this is the case but merely posing the question) that Luck might also be, at least to some extent, also a product of his system. He has a luxury that the other top QB prospects don't have in a running game that averages over 200 yards per game. Having that kind of a running game makes play action that much more effective. I have watched multiple Stanford games so far and have seen a large number of Luck's passes being on play action and he simply has to lob the ball over the OL to one of those TE's we talked about who are WIDE open and they simply run it in for the score.

4. People also question how well a Spread QB will transition to a pro-style offense. In my opinion there is just as much question about a QB transitioning from a pro style offense to a more spread offense and if one thing is for sure it's the Colts don't run a standard pro style offense. I would compare it more to a spread, or maybe a hybrid west coast spread. lol point being that in order for the Colts to mimic the type of offense Luck is used to they would have to do a pretty massive overhaul of the OL and TE core and possibly even the RB's.

i was listening to the announcers during the UCLA/Stanford game and one made the a comment suggesting what kind of numbers Luck could have in a spread offense. You simply can't say that Luck would thrive in that type of offense any more than I could say he would fail in it. Unless he's actually been in the situation then it's a question mark.

bottom line is that I am not now nor in the past ever intended to take anything away from Luck. However there are just as many questions, imo, about him transitioning to the Colts style of offense as there would be for a Nick Foles or Landry Jones transitioning to a pro style offense. There are several top college QB's who do much more with much less than what Luck has around him. How would Luck perform if he were in a situation where he didn't have the luxury of a 200+ yards per game rushing attack and 3 giant TE's who are able to consistently get wide open? These are the things I would like to try to find out before considering spending the #1 overall pick on him and making him the undisputed future of the Colts.

[ColtsLegacy]

Kellen Moore ladies and gents. I think he is a better fit for us. We draft him and let him be under Manning until Manning retires, and then we have a nice and ready to go QB that is ready to pick up where Manning left.

A better fit, how? Because you're a Boise State fan?

[Balzer40]

A better fit, how? Because you're a Boise State fan?

That has to be it. Moore is too short and has a noodle arm. He will be a backup in the NFL IMO.

[Jason_]

That has to be it. Moore is too short and has a noodle arm. He will be a backup in the NFL IMO.

Yeah, at this point I agree. The majority of his down-field passing is to receivers who have beaten their man coverage. That's not going to happen nearly as much in the NFL as it does for him against the weak opponents that Boise State plays. I haven't seen any kind of pass from him over say 15 yards that wasn't him simply lobbing the ball over a beaten defender.