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If we choose to go Edge Rusher in 1st over Barkley, Arden Key is the TERROR we need..


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9 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

We haven't had a real rb in 10 yrs, I am done with scrub rbs in 4th or 5th round, just fix it once and for all next 5 yrs at least. .Everyone says rbs dont mean championships, i can give you many lbs who were all time great and never won..For every Von Miller i can give u Emmit Smith and vice versa.

I can't argue against what you want.   That comes from your emotions so there's nothing I can say to satisfy.  Is what it is!   Let me try that,  "I Want An Elite Pass Rusher"!

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3 minutes ago, krunk said:

I can't argue against what you want.   That comes from your emotions so there's nothing I can say to satisfy.  Is what it is!   Let me try that,  "I Want An Elite Pass Rusher"!

Sorry to say Chubb ain't that,  wish Garrett was in draft this yr, key could be , but risky as hell..Barkley will be a freakin monster..

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10 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I wanna trade back take Nelson sign Norwell and a WR in FA hopefully have 2 high 2nd round picks take Key and a OT or ILB then grab a RB in the 3rd round 

Rather do that than reaching for need taking chubb at 3..hopefully we get Norwell before all that 

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11 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I wanna trade back take Nelson sign Norwell and a WR in FA hopefully have 2 high 2nd round picks take Key and a OT or ILB then grab a RB in the 3rd round 

 

Drafting a LG that early is a very irresponsible use of resources. If the Colts land Norwell in FA, Nelson is off the board...unless he slips to round 2.

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1 hour ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I wanna trade back take Nelson sign Norwell and a WR in FA hopefully have 2 high 2nd round picks take Key and a OT or ILB then grab a RB in the 3rd round 

They definitely wont be crying about oline anymore if we do that..

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4 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

They definitely wont be crying about oline anymore if we do that..

Exactly everyone that complains about taking Nelson in the top 15 are the same ones who will cry about the line in the season me personally I'm more worried about Luck staying healthy then anything else 

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25 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

We make the right moves we can be Falcons next yr..In my opinion in NFL it has to be about IMMEDIATE if you have franchise QB in place which we do..No slow rebuild 10 yr Jax Jaguar plan..

 

You have lost all perspective. We have very few quality pieces to compete at a high level.
To win another SB at all with Lucky is a very Lofty goal.
 Why did you make yourself look ____ with the Jax plan nonsense? Silliness.

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4 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

You have lost all perspective. We have very few quality pieces to compete at a high level.
To win another SB at all with Lucky is a very Lofty goal.
 Why did you make yourself look ____ with the Jax plan nonsense? Silliness.

They have picked top 10 last ten Yrs, top 5 a lot of yrs..finally meshed and worked this year. How am I wrong? We have been "rebuikding" 6 going on 7 yrs now..You realize this right? We haven't been picking top 10 or 20 most years either..My goal is to put our name in the hat and at least have a chance in postseason next year..

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5 hours ago, krunk said:

Why does every pass rusher have to fit a cookie cutter mold?   Joey Bosa is slow, but can he play?  Some rushers are power and some are speed.

Just look at some of the guys in the top 10 in sacks and what they ran in the 40

 

Chandler Jones 4.87

Calias Campbell 5.04

Demarcus Lawrence 4.8

Cameron Jordon 4.78

Ryan Kerrigan 4.71

Joey Bosa 4.86

Yannick Ngakoue 4.75

 

you don't have to be Dwight freeney to be successful in the NFL.

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9 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

Bradley Chubb is SLOW. ..He is slow man...watch the tape..The more I watch the less I like him..Good NFL tackles will shut him down..

Yeah... Sure. That's why he's consistently in every pundits top 5 overall. Every single one of them, have no clue how bad he really is. Seems very likely.

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Here's analysis of what wins in the league(hint - passing, not running):

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

 

In essence - the best way to win in the league is to improve your passing game on offense and pass-disruption game on defense(pass-rush, DBs). The running game is not completely meaningless, but the correlation between good pass-offense and winning is MUCH stronger than the correlation between good run-offense and winning. 

 

Quote

 In technical jargon, rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly.

 

Quote

 Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL. The strong relationship is clear from the visual.

 

nfl_pass_rush_scatter.png

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

Here's analysis of what wins in the league(hint - passing, not running):

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

 

In essence - the best way to win in the league is to improve your passing game on offense and pass-disruption game on defense(pass-rush, DBs). The running game is not completely meaningless, but the correlation between good pass-offense and winning is MUCH stronger than the correlation between good run-offense and winning. 

 

 

 

nfl_pass_rush_scatter.png

So "run the ball, stop the run" isn't a strong mantra?

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2 hours ago, BOTT said:

So "run the ball, stop the run" isn't a strong mantra?

It's not that it's not a good thing to stop the run and run the ball. If I had to guess you still need to keep the threat of running the ball on offense to keep defenses honest so they wouldn't cheat and crowd the secondary. And same goes for defense - you still need to have some modicum of run defense so you don't get trampled. But if I had to guess, as long as you can guarantee you have exceptional pass defense and exceptional pass offense, the threshold for how good your run defense and run offense needs to be is probably low.

 

There is a reason why passing has been getting more and more prominent as time passes. I would compare it with 3p shooting in basketball. It was non-supported mantra for the talking heads that jump shooting teams cannot win. This one is laughable nowadays but commentators used to parrot that one regularly. I think it's similar with the running game in the NFL.  And BTW this doesn't mean you need to abandon running the ball - again just like in basetball - the well-spaced teams have exceptional finishing in the paint as well - why? because the paint is no longer crowded and there are more open lanes to the basket when you spread the floor 5 out. I think a great and creative passing game in football can have similar effect on the running game - teams will try to sell out to cover the secondary, which will make it easier to run, when you actually decide to run... 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

It's not that it's not a good thing to stop the run and run the ball. If I had to guess you still need to keep the threat of running the ball on offense to keep defenses honest so they wouldn't cheat and crowd the secondary. And same goes for defense - you still need to have some modicum of run defense so you don't get trampled. But if I had to guess, as long as you can guarantee you have exceptional pass defense and exceptional pass offense, the threshold for how good your run defense and run offense needs to be is probably low.

 

There is a reason why passing has been getting more and more prominent as time passes. I would compare it with 3p shooting in basketball. It was non-supported mantra for the talking heads that jump shooting teams cannot win. This one is laughable nowadays but commentators used to parrot that one regularly. I think it's similar with the running game in the NFL.  And BTW this doesn't mean you need to abandon running the ball - again just like in basetball - the well-spaced teams have exceptional finishing in the paint as well - why? because the paint is no longer crowded and there are more open lanes to the basket when you spread the floor 5 out. I think a great and creative passing game in football can have similar effect on the running game - teams will try to sell out to cover the secondary, which will make it easier to run, when you actually decide to run... 

I was just joking about a certain coach of Italian heritage who spouted cliches.

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13 hours ago, BOTT said:

Just look at some of the guys in the top 10 in sacks and what they ran in the 40

 

Chandler Jones 4.87

Calias Campbell 5.04

Demarcus Lawrence 4.8

Cameron Jordon 4.78

Ryan Kerrigan 4.71

Joey Bosa 4.86

Yannick Ngakoue 4.75

 

you don't have to be Dwight freeney to be successful in the NFL.

How many were top 5 picks? I have never said Chubb wasn't gonna be a good player...I think we can still get a good edge rusher in top of 2nd though and  hit the home run with Barkley...

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If we go with a committee of backs like we probably will I would also be good with a committee of backs if Ballard brought in somebody like Shane Vereen/Deion Lewis, draft Nick Chubb and teamed that together with Marlon Mack and Matt Jones. New England actually had six RB last year if you include Devlin.

 

On the flip side if I see us bring in somebody like Ziggy Ansah I think its an indicator we are going after Barkley. Or we could still get Chubb and team him with Ansah.

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Assuming we run a base 4--3 defense that would be a nice little rotation with Ansah, Chubb, Sheard, Basham. Plus you could use John Simon as an additional rusher from the LB spot. Another scenario we might need to ponder if we aquire Ansah.

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22 minutes ago, krunk said:

That would be a nice little rotation with Ansah, Chubb, Sheard, Basham. Plus you could use John Simon as an additional rusher from the LB spot. Another scenario we might need to ponder if we aquire Ansah.

Yeah hope we go after Ansah hard if he isn't franchised...Would make Sheard's job a lot easier as well. ..

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On 1/26/2018 at 1:53 PM, jshipp23 said:

After watching tons of tape on all edge rushers, Arden Key sticks out above them all...He has that lightening fast first step, and freakish length that can't be taught ..Chubb is a very good player, but is more of a technician who relies more on power than speed which is easier to neutralize at next level. If Colts go this route, KEY is the edge guy I would be okay with taking instead of Barkley, and we could even do the popular trade back in this scenario possibly..I have a feeling after combine this guy might be above Chubb on a lot of boards, and we may need to take him at 3...Arden Key =Jevon Kearse with SPEED..

Key is a heckuva ATH, but Kearse ran solid 4.5's in the 40, what do you mean Kearse with speed? lol

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On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 1:53 PM, jshipp23 said:

After watching tons of tape on all edge rushers, Arden Key sticks out above them all...He has that lightening fast first step, and freakish length that can't be taught ..Chubb is a very good player, but is more of a technician who relies more on power than speed which is easier to neutralize at next level. If Colts go this route, KEY is the edge guy I would be okay with taking instead of Barkley, and we could even do the popular trade back in this scenario possibly..I have a feeling after combine this guy might be above Chubb on a lot of boards, and we may need to take him at 3...Arden Key =Jevon Kearse with SPEED..

Forgetting off field issues for a quick moment, what I DON'T like about Key is he doesn't use his hands, he relies totally on beating his man with get off.....in the NFL one trick ponies don't work, he will have to work on using his hands to disengage and get separation/beat his man to be successful........that requires he be driven and willing to work hard.....do the off field problems point to a driven hard working guy? I can't say....like I said its just something I don't like about his game...

 

Boils down to this:

Chubb has strength, Technique and good pursuit speed

Key has get off

 

Saquon Barkley does nothing for the woeful defense, and drafting a guard with the #3 works if you are 1 G away from being a SB contender.

 

Trade down, and take ILB, or DB and enjoy some extra picks for the trouble.

 

If you stand pat, gotta believe Chubb is just about your only recourse......if you want to improve the defense.

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7 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Key is a heckuva ATH, but Kearse ran solid 4.5's in the 40, what do you mean Kearse with speed? lol

I should have said a faster version of Kearse, but maybe not, I don't remember Kearse being that fast..Key  seems quicker and twitchier as well which makes him look faster..I'm cooling off on him because I've read a lot more on his lack of motitvation etc..Looks like he could be great, just too risky early 1st without the right attitude..I'm getting aboard the trade back twice train if no Barkley...Some other edge guys I like too, not privy to character on them either though, just what tape I see..Davenport looked good in actual game against good competition in Senior bowl, he has a lot of god given talent you can't coach, but could take awhile to fully develop..He is somebody I would be ok with if we pick up multiple 2nd and 3rds with a trade back to be able to fill many needs and be able to still be patient with Davenport..He could end up being best player in draft with proper coaching..

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1 minute ago, jshipp23 said:

I should have said a faster version of Kearse..Key  seems quicker and twitcheir too..I'm cooling off on him because I've read a lot more on his lack of motitvation etc..Looks like he could be great, just too risky without the right attitude..I'm getting aboard the trade back twice train if no Barkley...Some other edge guys I like too, not privy to character on them either though, just what tape I see..Davenport looked good in actual gane against good competition in Senior bowl, he has a lot of god given talent you can't coach, but could take awhile to fully develop..He is somebody I would be ok with if we pick up multiple 2nd and 3rds with a trade back to be able to fill many needs and be able to still be patient with Davenport..He could end up being best player in draft with proper coaching..

Key is a phenom at Rush backer, no doubt, but I would try to get him later than #3, if at all.....

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6 minutes ago, Shafty138 said:

Key is a phenom at Rush backer, no doubt, but I would try to get him later than #3, if at all.....

Yeah, with the right Attitude and coaching he could be a monster..He is just too risky in early first more I hear on him..Maybe in 2nd we pull trigger if he falls..It's a shame because pure talent wise he is best pass rusher in the draft...

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A couple points:

 

1. Key is a big time athlete, but he only wins with his speed most of the time. He isn't refined as a pass rusher and doesn't play the run as well as he should. He has good bend around the edge, but that's not going to cut it against good OT in the league any better than raw strength. His ability to transfer speed to power is still a little iffy.

2. We are going to a 4-3 most likely, and I don't see a natural fit there. Sure we had mathis and freeney (which were somewhat undersized), however, they were better than Key coming out (maybe not the athlete, but had better technique). 

3. Key has major character concerns on and off the field. He tends to get a little lazy for a guy with his kind of athleticism and his off the field character is well documented.

4. Chubb has elite agility for a guy his size. He can bend the end pretty well and then he uses that to his advantage to change that speed to power. Is he an elite athlete? Doesn't play like one, but he can move. He looks like a mix between Derrick Barnett and Joey Bosa to me. I'll take that all day over Key.

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55 minutes ago, Str8himalaya said:

A couple points:

 

1. Key is a big time athlete, but he only wins with his speed most of the time. He isn't refined as a pass rusher and doesn't play the run as well as he should. He has good bend around the edge, but that's not going to cut it against good OT in the league any better than raw strength. His ability to transfer speed to power is still a little iffy.

2. We are going to a 4-3 most likely, and I don't see a natural fit there. Sure we had mathis and freeney (which were somewhat undersized), however, they were better than Key coming out (maybe not the athlete, but had better technique). 

3. Key has major character concerns on and off the field. He tends to get a little lazy for a guy with his kind of athleticism and his off the field character is well documented.

4. Chubb has elite agility for a guy his size. He can bend the end pretty well and then he uses that to his advantage to change that speed to power. Is he an elite athlete? Doesn't play like one, but he can move. He looks like a mix between Derrick Barnett and Joey Bosa to me. I'll take that all day over Key.

The more I hear about Key's character I agree, too risky..All being equal, I think Key has huge potential, but Colts can't afford to miss; so better go for sure thing in Chubb.. If we pick top 10 and go pass rusher with pick..

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