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Aikmann Efficiency Ratings 2014.

Coffeedrinker

By Coffeedrinker
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Coffeedrinker Practice Squad

Coffeedrinker

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I like the AER as a rating system, it focuses on more of the items that lead to a team winning or losing.  It does take until about week 5 or 6 to really get a feel for how efficient a team really is but I thought I would post the first couple of weeks.  The numbers do not paint the Colts in a good light, especially the D.

 

Week 1

 

Week 2

 

One thing I found interesting, in the commentary for week 1.  He is discussing the when the AER got started, "At the time, that average number for an offense or defense was 75 on a scale that extends roughly to 100 or 50 in normal situations.  As a practical matter, the expansion of offense in the intervening nine years has produced an offensive average above 80 and a defensive norm below 70."

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Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

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Pretty fair assessment.  This has been a strange year so far.  Some teams look like they're going to be SB champs one week and then they look like they could get the #1 draft pick the next.

 

It will even out by week 8 when depth starts becoming more and more important.

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Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

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I like the AER because it looks at more things that contribute to winning a game.  It's not a perfect gauge and a team with a score of 59 on defense can have a game well over 100

 

Not to mention that it makes a lot more sense than those ridiculous power polls.  I think we actually dropped in one of them after beating the Jags.

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BlueShoe Team Captain

BlueShoe

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Yeah. Been looking at these too. We aren't getting any love from the Aikman stats yet. But in order for these to hold any weight, we really have to give it a half of a season.

I love his system of stats. Just not this early in the season. Example, Aikman stats had the Vikings as the best team after week 1.

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Coffeedrinker Practice Squad

Coffeedrinker

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Yeah. Been looking at these too. We aren't getting any love from the Aikman stats yet. But in order for these to hold any weight, we really have to give it a half of a season.

I love his system of stats. Just not this early in the season. Example, Aikman stats had the Vikings as the best team after week 1.

That what is good about AER vs the power polls SMonroe mentioned... there is no love needed, they are what they are.

 

On your second comment, yeah it really takes about week 5 or 6 six for the AER to really mean anything useful.  Although I have developed a formula that uses a team's AER vs the AERs of all the teams they've played to come up with an adjusted rating and I use that to fill out my office pool sheets.  Like anything else, it's not perfect but last year I won 5 weeks and had it come down to the MNF tie break (total points) of 4 others and I won the yearly.  The year before I won 6 weeks and in the running 1 other time and came in 2nd in yearly.  So far this year, I was in the running last week but had 41 on the Total points for Chicago/Jets.

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BlueShoe Team Captain

BlueShoe

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That what is good about AER vs the power polls SMonroe mentioned... there is no love needed, they are what they are.

 

On your second comment, yeah it really takes about week 5 or 6 six for the AER to really mean anything useful.  Although I have developed a formula that uses a team's AER vs the AERs of all the teams they've played to come up with an adjusted rating and I use that to fill out my office pool sheets.  Like anything else, it's not perfect but last year I won 5 weeks and had it come down to the MNF tie break (total points) of 4 others and I won the yearly.  The year before I won 6 weeks and in the running 1 other time and came in 2nd in yearly.  So far this year, I was in the running last week but had 41 on the Total points for Chicago/Jets.

 

Yeah they are what they are once enough data is entered. Aikman ratings have no merit over the first few weeks. though.

 

I think you are agreeing with me and then attempting to correct me even though you agree. That is confusing bro. ;)

 

As far as using the stats to make picks, I have a similar method, and have used AER in the past to help make picks. 

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Coffeedrinker Practice Squad

Coffeedrinker

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Yeah they are what they are once enough data is entered. Aikman ratings have no merit over the first few weeks. though.

 

I think you are agreeing with me and then attempting to correct me even though you agree. That is confusing bro. ;)

 

As far as using the stats to make picks, I have a similar method, and have used AER in the past to help make picks. 

I wasn't trying to correct you, I was just agreeing with you.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Coffeedrinker Practice Squad

Coffeedrinker

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here they are for week 6

 

Jumped from 9 to 7 on offense.

 

Defense fell from 12 to 15.

 

Which makes sense the D was not as efficient as they had been the previous couple of weeks.

 

Also Ravens are #1 in combined AER... makes the Colts win against them even more impressive, especially from a defensive viewpoint.

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crazycolt1 Ring of Honor

crazycolt1

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Call me old fashioned, but I prefer wins and losses. The rest is just noise.

Me too. I judge by what I see with my own eyes over some rating system. According to this the Colts are 30th?  According to the stats the Colts are ranked 13th. 20th in total yardage given up. Tied with 6 other teams with 6 sacks. 14th in points scored on us. So depending on what you want to add or subtract from stats you can come up with all different rankings. The Power rankings are a total joke IMO. Stats are just something to fill time with but the wins and losses are the only ones that matter in the end.

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NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

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Me too. I judge by what I see with my own eyes over some rating system. According to this the Colts are 30th?  According to the stats the Colts are ranked 13th. 20th in total yardage given up. Tied with 6 other teams with 6 sacks. 14th in points scored on us. So depending on what you want to add or subtract from stats you can come up with all different rankings. The Power rankings are a total joke IMO. Stats are just something to fill time with but the wins and losses are the only ones that matter in the end.

 

On Aikman's list we are 7th in offense and 15th in defense.

 

On the NFL's list we are 1st in offense and 13th in defense.

 

Here is the week 6 link from Coffeedrinker's post....

 

 

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficiencyRatings/tabid/274/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/68/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings-2014-as-of-Week-6.aspx

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