Predicting Lucks Rookie Year

[Indyboy757]

After one day of training camp and all the upside of what we have heard and seen, do you expect Luck to have a better rookie season then that of Panthers Cam Newton.

I say yes maybe not rushing but Luck is almost just as fast as Cam plus this guy [Luck] is the best passer any of us have seen as a rookie in some time or do you think he doesn't have enough around him to do what Cam did?

[Captain Americolt]

I say almost or at 4000 yards and ummmmm 24 TDs and 18 INTs.

[Indyboy757]

I say almost or at 4000 yards and ummmmm 24 TDs and 18 INTs.

So thats a no?

[Canadian.Coltsfan]

Seriously I buy into the fact that Cam benefited from the shortened offseason. Defense in general was weak last year, look at the numbers all the QB's put up, 3 5k yard passers is insane. What Cam did was awesome and he is a beast but we will see at the end of this year if 5000 is really the new 4000 and if rookie QB's can put up insane numbers and in Daltons case lead an unlikely team to the playoffs. All that being said I think it's possible for Luck to be around Cam's passing numbers and maybe a little better but the rushing TD's I can't see that happening, I personally wouldn't want Luck being the goal line back like Newton was for his healths sake. I'll guess 3900 yards 26 TD's 15 INT's and maybe 250 rushing and 3 TD's.

[Canadian.Coltsfan]

Also as far as not having enough around him to do what Newton did I can't buy into that because Steve Smith is unreal but thats it, Cam was limited to him and some good but not elite TE's. Between Wayne, Collie and the new TE's I'd say it's atleast level playing ground.

[Rich Cannon]

No rookie Qb has ever had that good of a season ever. So to put the bar that high is a little far fetched but i think 25TD'S 18 INTS is a good start start for Luck

[Smonroe]

No rookie Qb has ever had that good of a season ever. So to put the bar that high is a little far fetched but i think 25TD'S 18 INTS is a good start start for Luck

I'd take that. I think we'll be playing from behind a lot, it won't be easy to complete passes when you're always facing dime or getting blitzed.

A lot of Cam's yards were sandlot plays, he made something out of nothing. I'd rather work with a structured O anyway. It has a future.

[Rich Cannon]

I'd take that. I think we'll be playing from behind a lot, it won't be easy to complete passes when you're always facing dime or getting blitzed.

A lot of Cam's yards were sandlot plays, he made something out of nothing. I'd rather work with a structured O anyway. It has a future.

Agreed not to mention, Cams physical tools are over the top, no disrespect to Luck at all

[Qwiz]

Newton had the best rookie season for a quarterback of all time. May be a while before we ever see anything like it again, if ever.

[NewColtsFan]

Better than Dalton....

Not as good as Newton. The guy personally accounted for 35 TD's. 21/14

That's not going to happen with Luck. Nor should we want it to.

I also think Luck doesn't throw more than 16 interceptions -- tops. If he does, I'll be surprised and a little disappointed.

[SLILLINGTON10]

if luck isn't a fantasy football god i won't care. i think most importantly luck will take care of the football. maybe 10-14 int and second him and fleener move the sticks on thrid down. those two things will give us a chance to win every game.

[21isSuperman]

Am I the only person who wouldn't be upset to see Luck throw 20+ INTs? Throwing all those INTs will make him study more film so he can read defenses better and it's better to get those growing pains out of the way as early as possible.

[Andy]

3700 yards with 22 TDs and 12 INTs.

2 rushing TDs

[Brayton Thompson]

Im thinking 20 TD's 25 INT's. It's just hard for rookies to adjust to the player speed of the NFL. He'll see windows that he could hit in college, but in the NFL the DB's will close on receivers faster than he is used to. So a lot of those throws he could make in college will turn into INT's. Also the more porous the line is, the quicker he will have to get the ball out; This will lead to bad decisions.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not all doom and gloom. I think it will simply take Luck a few seasons to get into his groove. Remember it took Peyton 5 years before he was consistently good. And Peyton arguably had the better team at the time ala Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison.

[Restored]

I don't want to throw numbers out there because those are highly variable for rookies. I think though you will see a season that is better than Dalton's and Ponder's but not as great as Cam. Luck could pass for more TD's than Newton though and throw less INT's. Luck will surprise and live up to the expectations.

[Voir Dire]

Am I the only person who wouldn't be upset to see Luck throw 20+ INTs? Throwing all those INTs will make him study more film so he can read defenses better and it's better to get those growing pains out of the way as early as possible.

While I don't think I would be upset if Luck has a rocky year and agree that it could motivate extra film study going forward, there is also the possibility of negative effects to his long term development. This is especially true if Pagano turns out to be the ball control type of coach that he so far appears to be.

20+ interceptions with a ball control coach could lead to constant pressure to "protect the ball". While some of this is good for a QB, too much could turn someone who is by most accounts a great passer into someone who is too tentative.

Sometimes you really do need to believe in yourself, your receivers, and the play and simply let the ball fly. I think this confidence is necessary in today's pass happy, timing based NFL. Luck seems to have it, but a really bad year of interceptions and reaming out by coaches preaching ball control could lead to the type of doubt and hesitation that could kill the kid's development.

I think some players naturally have this self-confidence. I think others (maybe Brett Favre) might have acquired TOO much of it. In the case of Manning, I think he acquired and maintained this confidence not through ego, but through prep in the form of rep after rep and film study.

[21isSuperman]

While I don't think I would be upset if Luck has a rocky year and agree that it could motivate extra film study going forward, there is also the possibility of negative effects to his long term development. This is especially true if Pagano turns out to be the ball control type of coach that he so far appears to be.

20+ interceptions with a ball control coach could lead to constant pressure to "protect the ball". While some of this is good for a QB, too much could turn someone who is by most accounts a great passer into someone who is too tentative.

Sometimes you really do need to believe in yourself, your receivers, and the play and simply let the ball fly. I think this confidence is necessary in today's pass happy, timing based NFL. Luck seems to have it, but a really bad year of interceptions and reaming out by coaches preaching ball control could lead to the type of doubt and hesitation that could kill the kid's development.

I think some players naturally have this self-confidence. I think others (maybe Brett Favre) might have acquired TOO much of it. In the case of Manning, I think he acquired and maintained this confidence not through ego, but through prep in the form of rep after rep and film study.

I agree. We don't want to rip into him. Peyton Manning has the record for most INTs thrown by a rookie and he turned out fine. I think the coaches will be smart with it. I'm not saying he should go out there and sling it like Favre did, but I wouldn't be upset if he had a lot of INTs. He is a really smart guy, so him throwing picks (I believe) would be the result of great coverage disguises and all that, not because he foolishly takes risks for the heck of it.

[TKnight24]

I agree. We don't want to rip into him. Peyton Manning has the record for most INTs thrown by a rookie and he turned out fine. I think the coaches will be smart with it. I'm not saying he should go out there and sling it like Favre did, but I wouldn't be upset if he had a lot of INTs. He is a really smart guy, so him throwing picks (I believe) would be the result of great coverage disguises and all that, not because he foolishly takes risks for the heck of it.

Agreed. And not sure if you read the article 21, but they said he was making Great decisions & wasn't Indecisive. Yes, it's only TC and all, but I think that's a Good start

[21isSuperman]

Agreed. And not sure if you read the article 21, but they said he was making Great decisions & wasn't Indecisive. Yes, it's only TC and all, but I think that's a Good start

Exactly. He makes good decisions and is very mature. I don't think his INTs will be a result of throwing the ball into triple coverage like Favre would do. I think it will be more because he doesn't have a full grasp on the speed of the NFL and the complex blitzes and coverages teams use.

[StewieG]

Luck will break almost every rookie record there is.

I think he has the best rookie season by anyone ever.

[chad72]

Since we will run more than years past, I expect Luck's rookie season to be about 3000 yards, 24 TDs and about 15 INTs.

[TKnight24]

Exactly. He makes good decisions and is very mature. I don't think his INTs will be a result of throwing the ball into triple coverage like Favre would do. I think it will be more because he doesn't have a full grasp on the speed of the NFL and the complex blitzes and coverages teams use.

I've been watching Film on him. I like the way he plays the QB Position. I have yet to find any Flaws in him. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkclXUyOfSo

This INT happened for 2 reasons: 1. Poor Route Run by the WR & 2. Good Coverage Disguise (as you mentioned) by the CB. But the way Luck was Poised on the Drive after this INT for 6 shows his Maturity in a MAJOR Way. IMO

[TKnight24]

Since we will run more than years past, I expect Luck's rookie season to be about 3000 yards, 24 TDs and about 15 INTs.

Sounds pretty Accurate to me lol. But I look for the Play Action Passes to Fleener, Allen, & Collie to KILL Defenses like it did at Stanford

[Superman]

I don't think he's going to throw very many interceptions. Anything more than 16 or so is higher than I expect at this point.

[21isSuperman]

I've been watching Film on him. I like the way he plays the QB Position. I have yet to find any Flaws in him. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkclXUyOfSo

This INT happened for 2 reasons: 1. Poor Route Run by the WR & 2. Good Coverage Disguise (as you mentioned) by the CB. But the way Luck was Poised on the Drive after this INT for 6 shows his Maturity in a MAJOR Way. IMO

ZOMG!!!11!11oneone! He threw to the Venus on a Spider 3 Y Banana!!

[21isSuperman]

Sounds pretty Accurate to me lol. But I look for the Play Action Passes to Fleener, Allen, & Collie to KILL Defenses like it did at Stanford

To get that, we'll need to get our running game going again. Our play action was deadly when we had Edge.

[TKnight24]

To get that, we'll need to get our running game going again. Our play action was deadly when we had Edge.

AGREE!!!!!!!

[BOTT]

Newton had the best rookie season for a quarterback of all time. May be a while before we ever see anything like it again, if ever.

he also benefited from recent rule changes....wouldn't be surprised at all to see his rookie season challenged in the coming years

[Superman]

Newton had the best rookie season for a quarterback of all time. May be a while before we ever see anything like it again, if ever.

That could be an indication of how the game is changing.

Andy Dalton had a year that rivals Cam's in every passing stat besides total yards. He also had fewer sacks and fewer interceptions, with just one fewer attempt. Not counting Cam's rushing yards -- he had more yards than any Colts back. Dalton isn't half the athlete Newton is, obviously. But as a passer, he was right there with him.

As passing gets easier, I think we'll see the rookie quarterback numbers improve just like the veterans' numbers do. Also add in that quarterbacks are being groomed from conception these days, with camps and passing academies and stuff throughout their formative years. A guy like Luck, who was raised by a former NFL quarterback, has had NFL coaches and tutors for the past 10-15 years, and who has the intellect to grasp an NFL offense... I think the deck is stacked in his favor.

Not saying Luck is going to throw for 4,000 yards as a rookie, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[Qwiz]

he also benefited from recent rule changes....wouldn't be surprised at all to see his rookie season challenged in the coming years

True, but it was still incredible. A guy that's 6'5 and who weighs almost 250 pounds should not move as swiftly nor as deceptively as Cam Newton. Throw in the fact that he's a pretty good passer and he's like a sports anomaly, like LeBron James or (hmm) Peyton Manning type. His season will be challenged, but it's probably going to take a while. The quarterback position is being revolutionized before our eyes.

[Qwiz]

That could be an indication of how the game is changing.

Andy Dalton had a year that rivals Cam's in every passing stat besides total yards. He also had fewer sacks and fewer interceptions, with just one fewer attempt. Not counting Cam's rushing yards -- he had more yards than any Colts back. Dalton isn't half the athlete Newton is, obviously. But as a passer, he was right there with him.

As passing gets easier, I think we'll see the rookie quarterback numbers improve just like the veterans' numbers do. Also add in that quarterbacks are being groomed from conception these days, with camps and passing academies and stuff throughout their formative years. A guy like Luck, who was raised by a former NFL quarterback, has had NFL coaches and tutors for the past 10-15 years, and who has the intellect to grasp an NFL offense... I think the deck is stacked in his favor.

Not saying Luck is going to throw for 4,000 yards as a rookie, but it wouldn't surprise me.

I agree. Wouldn't surprise me either. Guy is a competitor and he has all the right weapons. Will he run for 14 TDs? Possibly, if he's used in a bruiser type redzone situation like Tebow. But if the Andrew Luck Director of Offense Bruce Arians is strict about Luck being prototypical, the only thing he'll approach is Cam's passing yards and passing touchdowns. Hopefully Arians won't, though, because he'll be impairing Mr. Luck by trying to make him a statue in the pocket. If he has legs and size, let him use them. He's going to have a good rookie campaign whether it's Newton-like or not, though.

[betheafan41]

im guessing about 3500 - 3800 yards throwing 25 TD's 21 INT's, 350 yards rushings, 5 TD's and colts will finish the season at 7-9.

[BOTT]

True, but it was still incredible. A guy that's 6'5 and who weighs almost 250 pounds should not move as swiftly nor as deceptively as Cam Newton. Throw in the fact that he's a pretty good passer and he's like a sports anomaly, like LeBron James or (hmm) Peyton Manning type. His season will be challenged, but it's probably going to take a while. The quarterback position is being revolutionized before our eyes.

i have been hearing the revolution of the qb talk for years.....

[Qwiz]

i have been hearing the revolution of the qb talk for years.....

Except now it's actually happening. Rodgers, Newton, Tebow, and even Griffin are all living proof. The time of quarterbacks being expected to be in the pocket all game is almost over.

[BOTT]

Except now it's actually happening. Rodgers, Newton, Tebow, and even Griffin are all living proof. The time of quarterbacks being expected to be in the pocket all game is almost over.

yeah yeah. and just for the record you mentioned tebow lol. and rodgers mobility is nothing new.

[Pacergeek]

Andrew Luck is a bad man. He will have something to say about Cam Newton's rookie records.

[Qwiz]

yeah yeah. and just for the record you mentioned tebow lol. and rodgers mobility is nothing new.

Yes, I did mention Tebow. Guy is a monster when it comes to the redzone. Rodgers mobility isn't new, no, but GMs are gravitating towards mobile quarterbacks now.

[BOTT]

Yes, I did mention Tebow. Guy is a monster when it comes to the redzone. Rodgers mobility isn't new, no, but GMs are gravitating towards mobile quarterbacks now.

tebow is a giant stinking turd....but hey, he is part of the "revolution" lol

[Qwiz]

tebow is a giant stinking turd....but hey, he is part of the "revolution" lol

Tebow is a back up quarterback who had a press conference. Say what you will about him as a player, but the guy goes all out, is a winner, and is a great person. And yes, he is a part of the revolution. Tebow was in the playoffs last year...I guess if he stinks what does that say about teams that didn't make it in the AFC last year?

[supremecoltsfan300]

Rodgers isnt really a runner. He's more like steve young than a cunningham, vick, newton. Luck will probably be more like a rodgers. Tebow isnt a qb, just a football player. The revolution isnt happening imo.