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AFC South and AFC Playoff picture/ Remaining Schedules (MERGE) Updated OP + on page 61 - post week 17. AFC Clinching Scenarios page 61

w87r

By w87r
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w87r
w87r

Will keep this updated as season progresses:   • (overall record, division record, conference record, SOS, SOV)(remaining schedule)   Tie Breaker Order: https://operations.nfl

JediXMan
JediXMan

That damn Browns game.  

GoColts8818
GoColts8818

Just beat the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans and then you don’t have to worry about what other teams do.

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Restinpeacesweetchloe Ring of Honor

Restinpeacesweetchloe

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3 minutes ago, w87r said:

Chiefs play Patriots this week. Imagine they will be back in the W column there and Broncos have a tough game @ Detroit

 

 

Chiefs have the better division record with the H2H split.

 

Think the Chiefs would have to lose 2 games of remaining 4 and probably both of those being their division games

 (LV, LAC) both look horrible and Herbert got hurt today.

Sorry I meant Saturday. All 3 Saturday games have implications for colts.

 

Thats good for the chiefs.

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2006Coltsbestever Ring of Honor

2006Coltsbestever

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3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think when everything is said and done the two teams with the playoff experience are going to be the two to make it. That’s the Bengals and Bills. Vikings defense is really good so we will see if they can effect Browning. Vikings have no QB and Oline injuries. So I doubt they will win.

I still think we get in at #7. We have tie breaker over Buffalo and they will lose to Dallas and Miami IMO. 

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NewColtsFan

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21 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

She worries over everything @NewColtsFan, we will beat the Steelers and I am not even worried about it. I swear we lose 1 game and this place becomes a volcanic poop eruption. 


Well….  After today’s unimpressive performance, perhaps you should worry.   I think our remaining games will probably be more difficult than you and others might expect.    I think each game is a 50/50 toss up.   

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2006Coltsbestever

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Well….  After today’s unimpressive performance, perhaps you should worry.   I think our remaining games will probably be more difficult than you and others might expect.    I think each game is a 50/50 toss up.   

We will be better than a 50/50 vs Pitt. As for the other games, I have to wait and see. 

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NewColtsFan

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29 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We will be better than a 50/50 vs Pitt. As for the other games, I have to wait and see. 


I could easily be wrong.   But I respect the Pitt franchise.   I respect Tomlin.   And I like Trubisky more than most here.   But I don’t see much difference between Trubisky and Minshew to have the confidence that you do. 
 

Im not predicting an outcome.  I think it could go either way.   I hope the Colts win.  But I won’t be surprised if the Colts don’t.  

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2006Coltsbestever

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


I could easily be wrong.   But I respect the Pitt franchise.   I respect Tomlin.   And I like Trubisky more than most here.   But I don’t see much difference between Trubisky and Minshew to have the confidence that you do. 
 

Im not predicting an outcome.  I think it could go either way.   I hope the Colts win.  But I won’t be surprised if the Colts don’t.  

Anything can happen but to me the Steelers seem like a team that is headed downward. It has been a weird season though, so nothing is a given. 

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w87r

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Nice article

 

https://www.colts.com/news/afc-playoff-standings-odds-tiebreakers-remaining-schedules-week-14-15-seeding

 

Quote

Wild Cards Odds

1. Browns (84%, up from 60% last week)

2. Broncos (50%, up from 21% last week)

3. Texans (45%, down from 78% last week)

4. Colts (41% down from 67% last week)

5. Bills (39%, up from 15% last week)

6. Bengals (26%, up from <10% last week)

7. Steelers (25%, down from 54% last week)

 

 

A Colts win over the Steelers would bump their playoff odds up to 59 percent, while a loss would drop them to 20 percent. 

 

Without taking other results into account, the Colts' playoff odds based on winning at least three of their final four games:

 

Beat Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas & Houston (11-6): >99%

Beat Pittsburgh, lose to Atlanta, beat Las Vegas & Houston (10-7): 96%

Beat Pittsburgh & Atlanta, lose to Las Vegas, beat Houston (10-7): 88%

Lose to Pittsburgh, beat Atlanta, Las Vegas & Houston (10-7): 87%

Beat Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas, lose to Houston (10-7): 71%

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Mick J.

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Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

If they lose one more they would need other teams to lose. Right now they still control their destiny. 

 

Well, looking at all the other 7-6 teams, I think the Colts have the easiest schedule. Probably goes done to the final weel of regular season. Hopefully we get Taylor back.

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Restinpeacesweetchloe

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2 minutes ago, Mick J. said:

 

Well, looking at all the other 7-6 teams, I think the Colts have the easiest schedule. Probably goes done to the final weel of regular season. Hopefully we get Taylor back.

Yeah I don’t think all these 7-6 teams will go undefeated. They can probably lose one more as long as it isn’t against Steelers.

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w87r

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13 minutes ago, Mick J. said:

If, the Colts go 10-7 are they in?

10-7 and the loss be to the Falcons and it's pretty much a lock. 96%

 

Lowest % if we go 10-7 is 71%.

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Yeah I don’t think all these 7-6 teams will go undefeated. They can probably lose one more as long as it isn’t against Steelers.

87% chance for playoffs if they lose to Steelers and win the other 3 games.

 

 

Team we can't afford to lose to right now is Texans, but that game is far away and could be way different by then.

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Restinpeacesweetchloe

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4 minutes ago, w87r said:

10-7 and the loss be to the Falcons and it's pretty much a lock. 96%

 

Lowest % if we go 10-7 is 71%.

87% chance for playoffs if they lose to Steelers and win the other 3 games.

 

 

Team we can't afford to lose to right now is Texans, but that game is far away and could be way different by then.

It’s not about the chances. These percentages are just a fun game. They don’t mean much.  It’s more about this colts team as a whole. Losing to Steelers probably would create a downward spiral last three games. This is not a  very  good team.

 

Lose  to Steelers and you don’t control your own destiny.

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AwesomeAustin

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I understand we still have a chance if we lose to the Steelers but would require a 3 game win streak. I’ve said for two weeks if we wanted to make the playoffs we had to win at TN and Cincy. Now this week is basically a must win game and we struggle historically vs  Pitt.  Every single game for the rest of the season is basically a playoff game. I hope the Colts can keep it interesting. Either way they have exceeded expectations. We have a great head coach but I’m not ready to start looking towards next year. We have to win this week. 

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Restinpeacesweetchloe

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15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think the Steelers game is a must win. Yesterday really wasn't. Winning yesterday would have just made things a lot easier, it would have been a luxury to have. We need to beat Pitt though because you also have teams like Broncos and Bills now at 7-6.

And bengals at 7-6. Bengals most likely best Vikings this weekend.

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2006Coltsbestever

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Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

And bengals at 7-6. Bengals most likely best Vikings this weekend.

I don't know, Vikings could beat them. Remember some of these backup QBs get hot or play well for 2 or 3 games, then they lay an egg. They are lifetime backups for a reason. Like yesterday, Minshew laid an egg after winning 4 straight games where he played above average for the most part. 

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chad72

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8 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I don't know, Vikings could beat them. Remember some of these backup QBs get hot or play well for 2 or 3 games, then they lay an egg. They are lifetime backups for a reason. Like yesterday, Minshew laid an egg after winning 4 straight games where he played above average for the most part. 

 

Yep, agree on the backups aspect. The true question is, will Jake Browning be good enough for another game since Joshua Dobbs' mojo has faded a bit now? By the time Browning gets to the Chiefs game, the Chiefs D would be ready for him, easily. Life as a back up, has similar storylines in the NFL.

 

Trevor Lawrence impressed me this week, he seems to be thriving with all kinds of WRs and TEs spreading the ball around well. The Jaguars will be a tough out in the playoffs.

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2006Coltsbestever

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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yep, agree on the backups aspect. The true question is, will Jake Browning be good enough for another game since Joshua Dobbs' mojo has faded a bit now? By the time Browning gets to the Chiefs game, the Chiefs D would be ready for him, easily. Life as a back up, has similar storylines in the NFL.

I keep waiting to see if Tomlin switches, and we face Rudolph 'RED NOSE' Reindeer on Saturday instead of Trubisky. 

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Restinpeacesweetchloe

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10 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I don't know, Vikings could beat them. Remember some of these backup QBs get hot or play well for 2 or 3 games, then they lay an egg. They are lifetime backups for a reason. Like yesterday, Minshew laid an egg after winning 4 straight games where he played above average for the most part. 

Vikings scored 3 points yesterday in the win. 

3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yep, agree on the backups aspect. The true question is, will Jake Browning be good enough for another game since Joshua Dobbs' mojo has faded a bit now? By the time Browning gets to the Chiefs game, the Chiefs D would be ready for him, easily. Life as a back up, has similar storylines in the NFL.

 

Trevor Lawrence impressed me this week, he seems to be thriving with all kinds of WRs and TEs spreading the ball around well. The Jaguars will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Dobbs was benched for Nick Mullins yesterday.

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chad72

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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I keep waiting to see if Tomlin switches, and we face Rudolph 'RED NOSE' Reindeer on Saturday instead of Trubisky. 

 

Both of them don't test you with high accuracy. The accurate QBs do give us some issues.

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2006Coltsbestever

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3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Both of them don't test you with high accuracy. The accurate QBs do give us some issues.

I am pretty confident about Saturday's game. So I am in a good mood this morning despite the egg we laid yesterday. I get the history part of it, they have owned us, but we are better than they are this year.

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chad72

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am pretty confident about Saturday's game. So I am in a good this morning despite the egg we laid yesterday. I get the history part of it, they have owned us, but we are better than they are this year.

 

My wife will be happy the Colts game is on Saturday since it is my daughter's birthday this Sunday and it will be just family time. :) 

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2006Coltsbestever

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5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am pretty confident about Saturday's game. So I am in a good mood this morning despite the egg we laid yesterday. I get the history part of it, they have owned us, but we are better than they are this year.

To follow this up, I am in a good mood now but if we lose Saturday - steam will be coming out of my ears Screaming Homer Simpson GIFlol

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chad72

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6 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Unfortunately our zone coverage does give up a lot of completions.  Making average quarterbacks look above average.

 

Hopefully being at home helps and we can get some push down the middle to help out the coverage. The Steelers can be streaky on offense, just have to weather those 2 or 3 good drives and at home, we should be able to get the run game going to control tempo in what could be another grind out game the Steelers love to play. But then, those are the types of games we tend to win too. Games like the Titans game, we have won only 1 game where we had to score more than 21 points, if I am right, all of this year. All other games we won, outside the Titans game, our opponents scored 20 or less.

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2006Coltsbestever

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4 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

I've used this for years at this time of the year to see all the different ways things can work out or not work out. 

 

I have to admit I'm not feeling too good about us against the Steelers. It never seems to matter the circumstances, we just lose. 

We got this on Saturday, Terry Bradshaw or Ben Roethlisberger isn't walking out of that tunnel anytime soon.

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richard pallo

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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Hopefully being at home helps and we can get some push down the middle to help out the coverage. The Steelers can be streaky on offense, just have to weather those 2 or 3 good drives and at home, we should be able to get the run game going to control tempo in what could be another grind out game the Steelers love to play. But then, those are the types of games we tend to win too. Games like the Titans game, we have won only 1 game where we had to score more than 24, if I am right, all of this year.

I don’t think we normally play well at home.  I think we play better on the road.  Yesterday being the exception.  It shouldn’t be that way but that’s how I see it.  Huge egg yesterday.  I can’t imagine we will play that bad again.  At least I hope not.

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chad72

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3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t think we normally play well at home.  I think we play better on the road.  Yesterday being the exception.  It shouldn’t be that way but that’s how I see it.  Huge egg yesterday.  I can’t imagine we will play that bad again.  At least I hope not.

 

I felt the tide changing vs the Bucs after the bye week and I feel the script will be flipped moving forward with us being hit and miss on the road, and doing well at home. 

 

We are going 3-1 at least the next 4 games thus being 10-7 when it is all said and done. Call it a hunch.

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