Compensation for trading down?

[MrNLM]

I know there are tons who are better at this than I would be so maybe you can help me out. Lets say Ballard trades down TWICE in the first round... somewhere between pick 25 and pick 32. What could we possibly have to work with? My first though was just a guess... 1-1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds, 2-4ths, 1-5th, and 1-6th. Is this selling us short? I could see us getting maybe an addition 3rd but, I am unsure.

 

Thanks in advance.

[loudnproudcolt]

I don't think it would be worth it to trade back, especially twice. If we were to trade back, I think you have to look at the chart first, and then you need to formulate offers on the team who wants the pick and how badly they want to move into your position. This is where you can get extra value, and is why it makes valuing a trade like that so difficult.

 

 

[MrNLM]

4 minutes ago, loudnproudcolt said:

I don't think it would be worth it to trade back, especially twice. If we were to trade back, I think you have to look at the chart first, and then you need to formulate offers on the team who wants the pick and how badly they want to move into your position. This is where you can get extra value, and is why it makes valuing a trade like that so difficult.

 

 

Someone shared with me a similar sentiment. What matters is actually having a team to trade with. compensation is a formulated conclusion... a trade partner is not.

[I'm mad, bro]

I love the idea of trading back once. A realistic scenario could be a RB sitting there if we have 14, and someone like Detroit, NY might want to give up their 2nd for him. I want to stay within the top 25 tho, becuz there are sure fire 25 Defensive prospects that could impact our D. Many have their flaws no ones perfect, but I easily see 25 1st round talents at least.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, MrNLM said:

I know there are tons who are better at this than I would be so maybe you can help me out. Lets say Ballard trades down TWICE in the first round... somewhere between pick 25 and pick 32. What could we possibly have to work with? My first though was just a guess... 1-1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds, 2-4ths, 1-5th, and 1-6th. Is this selling us short? I could see us getting maybe an addition 3rd but, I am unsure.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

We'll take a look at this with the use of the Trade Point Calculator.

 

The Colts pick is worth about 1100 points.

 

The Falcons pick at 31 (guessing we're not doing a deal with NE at 32!)  is worth 600.    So, the Falcons would owe the Colts another 500 points.       Atlanta's 2, 3 and 4 would only give the Colts another 440 points.   So, they'd still owe us more.

 

Moves that big are hard to do unless one team is willing to either over pay to make such a move,  or one team is willing to take less than the value that the point chart recommends.

 

Here is the point chart.

 

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Ind

 

I hope this is helpful.       Feel to to ask what you'd like if you're not sure about anything.......

 

[Manning1887]

I would be interested in trading back to the early 20's, perhaps with a team like the Giants or Raiders, in exchange for a 2018 second round pick and a fifth or sixth round pick in 2017. 

 

Then, we could take someone like Charles Harris or Takkarist McKinley or possibly trade back with Atlanta or Green Bay for a third round pick. (Similar to Seattle trading back with Denver for a third last year)

[throwing BBZ]

14 hours ago, MrNLM said:

I know there are tons who are better at this than I would be so maybe you can help me out. Lets say Ballard trades down TWICE in the first round... somewhere between pick 25 and pick 32. What could we possibly have to work with? My first though was just a guess... 1-1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds, 2-4ths, 1-5th, and 1-6th. Is this selling us short? I could see us getting maybe an addition 3rd but, I am unsure.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

 You got me laughing too!  

[The Peytonator]

1 hour ago, Manning1887 said:

I would be interested in trading back to the early 20's, perhaps with a team like the Giants or Raiders, in exchange for a 2018 second round pick and a fifth or sixth round pick in 2017. 

 

Then, we could take someone like Charles Harris or Takkarist McKinley or possibly trade back with Atlanta or Green Bay for a third round pick. (Similar to Seattle trading back with Denver for a third last year)

 

 

Yeah that's what I'm thinking I'd like to see too, except I want the 2nd round pick for this year. We move back just a few spots and gain another 2nd in a very deep and defensive draft.

[ztboiler]

It's helpful to look at some historical examples.  Actual trade values are all over the board.  Look at the Cowboys trade from 18 back to 31 in 2013.  Memory says they got a 3rd (74?) which would be well below trade value chart comp.

 

Just depends on the market and moment.  Trading back 5 spots in the first round has been worth a 3rd to high 4th if your original pick is in the 20's - if you comb back through actual trades.

 

Sometimes the chart works and sometimes it doesn't.

[Superman]

I don't see him moving back from 14-15 all the way to the end of the first round. I couldn't see him giving up more than 10 spots, even over two moves. If he did, he'd have to stock up some 2nds and 3rds, including probably a future 2nd, otherwise it's not worth it.

[chad72]

What do you think of this scenario I chalked out in a different thread?

 

 

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, chad72 said:

What do you think of this scenario I chalked out in a different thread?

 

 

 

I think that's steep for the Vikings. Based on the value charts, we're coming out ahead by 122 points. They might do their 2 and 4, and maybe a future 3. 

 

If I wanted the Browns #33, I think I'd rather give up my 2nd and 3rd, and take back their 5th. And I think I'd only be doing that for a player I really like at #33, not to move back down. If the Vikings or some other team blew me away for #33, I'd take it, but it would probably have to be something like your 2+3+4 offer, which I don't think they'd do. 

 

If I could pry Anthony Barr away from Minnesota, maybe we'd have a different deal to talk about...

[GoColts00]

18 hours ago, MrNLM said:

I know there are tons who are better at this than I would be so maybe you can help me out. Lets say Ballard trades down TWICE in the first round... somewhere between pick 25 and pick 32. What could we possibly have to work with? My first though was just a guess... 1-1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds, 2-4ths, 1-5th, and 1-6th. Is this selling us short? I could see us getting maybe an addition 3rd but, I am unsure.

 

Thanks in advance.

A trade down with Oakland would be worth 360 points. They would take our #14 for their #24, 2nd Rd#56, and 5th Rd #151.

[ztboiler]

There has been a vibe around here to trade down every year since 2012.  Understandably so.  This really doesn't feel like the year that it fits.  We may never draft higher in Luck's career and we are probably right on the cut line to draft a premium CB, S, ILB or pass rusher.

[GoColts00]

47 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

There has been a vibe around here to trade down every year since 2012.  Understandably so.  This really doesn't feel like the year that it fits.  We may never draft higher in Luck's career and we are probably right on the cut line to draft a premium CB, S, ILB or pass rusher.

I can remember people on here back in 2009 wanting to trade down. I have been one of those people for years... until now.  I agree with you. This is one of those years where we can draft excellent players because of how deep this draft is.

[Traines]

1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

There has been a vibe around here to trade down every year since 2012.  Understandably so.  This really doesn't feel like the year that it fits.  We may never draft higher in Luck's career and we are probably right on the cut line to draft a premium CB, S, ILB or pass rusher.

Couldn't agree more