Comprehensive Off-Season Plan

[Archer]

Well, now that the Colts are out of the playoffs (let’s not debate, it’s too unlikely at this point to plan for), I’m ready to impart my comprehensive off-season plan.  I expect a LB draft of a scale similar to last year’s OL draft.  One thing I’ve noticed is that when our D is not playing well (quite a few games this year), the big thing missing seems to be sideline-to-sideline run defenders in LB corps.  The line will do its job (though it was a bad injury year for the DL, so that wasn’t always the case), but when that RB finds his hole, there never seems to be a LB filling it fast enough.  I’m hopeful for Edwin Jackson (he’s made some of our most impressive LB plays this year in limited action), but, in general, the LBs are not too promising of a group.  This is especially true of the pass rush – no real possibilities for a top-tier rushing OLB on the team.  While that would be the top priority, it’s a riskier notion to find a pass-rusher in this league (more on that below).  I think LB will be in play for every pick in this draft.  Here’s my projections:

 

 

Off-Season Signings (by Priority/Expense)

 

 

·        Jack Doyle.  Universally loved in the locker room, and the best all-round TE we’ve had since Allen’s rookie season.  The money we spent on Allen last year is irrelevant.  And, at best, we could have a top duo to go with our solid WR corps.

 

·        Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Bengals.  May seem like an odd priority to some, but much of our CB depth melted away after TC this year (mostly due to injuries).  If everyone stays healthy, this’ll give us a top-tier group at the top of the depth chart.  Without a solid pass rush, we can implement a strategy of having such good coverage that the likely lack of pass rush won’t be a back-breaker.  Plus, having Robinson and Kirkpatrick under contract for a couple more years would insulate us from possibly losing Vontae after 2017.

 

·        Erik Walden.  If you’re desperately trying to improve the LB corps, you don’t start by getting rid of your best one.  He’s by far the best returning pass rusher.

·        Mike Adams.  He’s up there in years, but he’s been good and could be a veteran back-up to Geathers and Green.  An insurance policy that still has some gas left in his tank IMO.

 

·           Mike Adams.  He’s up there in years, but he’s been good and could be a veteran back-up to Geathers and Green.  An insurance policy that still has some gas left in his tank IMO.  

 

    Zach Kerr.  He won’t break the bank, and competition to make the roster will be steep.  If they can stay healthy next year, our DL will be very good if we just keep who we’ve got (particularly if Henry Anderson returns to form).

 

    Jonnothan Harrison.  He’s had more success staying healthy than Thornton, and I think he could be a good back-up interior lineman for a few more years.  

 

     Salary Cap Casualty:  D’Qwell Jackson.  His suspension made me even more certain of this move.  

 

     Let Walk: Mathis, Cole, Thornton, Butler, Turbin, Todman.

·       

     Maybe, MAYBE, bring back Cole if he shows okay these last two weeks and is willing to work for cheap…

 

 

Draft

 

 

·        My mock drafts tend to be pessimistic – I’m always figuring that if I’m right about potential sleepers, then other teams will see it too and he’ll be drafted earlier that current conventional wisdom would indicate.  So, you’ll probably hate my draft…

 

 

1) Reuben Foster, ILB, Florida.  It’s a very good year for first round ILBs.  If we’re drafting around #16, Zach Cunningham should be there if Foster’s not.  (And Jarrad Davis of Florida is very under-rated at this point – I might prefer him to Cunningham.)  At any rate, Foster is a rare five-star recruit who actually lived up to the hype.  Sideline to sideline speed, good in coverage, great tackler, good leadership.  There’s nothing not to like here.  Starting him next to Edwin would totally set a new tone for this D.

 

 

2) Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College.  How do you get a top pass-rusher when you don’t have one?  A number of answers, but, in general: you pay through the nose in FA, you draft one in the top 10 picks of the draft, or you hit on a draft sleeper.  The latter 1st  rounders completely bust as often as they hit it big.  So, if I’m gonna gamble, I’d much rather do it in the 2nd round than in the 1st.  Landry ripped off 15 sacks this year after being previously considered a really good run defender.  A Junior - there’s no guaranty he comes out this year.  At 6’3, 250, he is prototypical for our Rush OLB role. 

 

 

3) Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia.  A swing for the fences.  A health risk who hasn’t returned to his former form, he would have been considered a sure 1^st rounder a couple of years ago.  Love his size and strength, giving him the ability to be the short yardage guy, in addition to being the feature back of the future.  If he fully returns to form, he’ll be a steal, though Kiper (who the heck is Mel Kiper?) advised him to go back to school.  Royce Freeman is a very similar option, in that he was considered a possible 1^st rounder before an injury-plagued season.  Failing these, there are other viable RBs in the 3^rd…Kamara, McNichols, Gallman, etc.  It’s a good RB year.

 

 

4) Jordan Willis, LB, Kansas St.  At 6’5, 258, he’d be the second draftee to develop and compete for playing time with Ayers at Rush OLB.  He’s one of those guys you’d have to get into camp and see where he fits best.  A bit tall for ILB, but he could possibly set the edge at SAM, or be a pass-rush specialist at the Rush OLB or DE positions.  He had a productive career rushing the passer, getting 10.5 sacks this year at DE. 

 

 

4) (Compensatory) Tedric Thompson, S, Colorado.  Talented guy in a talented secondary.  Pulled down 7 interceptions as a Sr., after a productive 2015 in coverage too.  6’, 205 – should fit in as a back-up to T.J. Green and Geathers.  This is an area in need of more depth, even if Adams returns.

 

5) Nate Theaker, OL, Wayne St.  I like our OL draft moves last year, and I think they’ve given us good developing depth.   Looking forward one year, I’m not sure we’ll be able to afford to keep Mewhort after 2017.  Haeg would be his obvious replacement, but that would set some things in motion:  Good in the conversation at both RG and RT, Clark competing for the job he was drafted for at RT, another multiple player search for RG, development of new swing tackle depth, etc.  I know I’m over-thinking, but the bottom line is that I’d like to keep the OL depth vacuum we’ve had in recent years from developing again.  As for Theaker, he’s 6’5”,305 lb., and his resume will remind you of Haeg’s.  Very lightly recruited out of HS, he’s done nothing but perform at a high level at a small college.  He played LT as a Sr., but played a lot of RG and RT in the past.  Should test quick and fluid, like a ZBS OG (and again like Haeg)…

 

 

6) Tyus Bowser, LB, Oklahoma St.  Would consider another RB, but here’s another case of looking for LBs to upgrade the corps.  He looked really good in coverage when I watched him.  And while he didn’t rush the passer very often, he looked really quick around the edge to me.  Still he had 8.5 sacks, 12 tfl, 3 pbu, 9 qbh, and 47 tackles as a Sr.  At 6’2, 240, he could probably fit in about anywhere in our LB corps.  Looking for connections, Curt Maggit’s brother is a defensive assistant in the Houston coaching staff…so, there’s that.

 

 

Undrafted College FAs

 

 

Chris Carson, RB, Oklahoma St.  I mainly tuned into the Big-12 championship to watch Carson and Samaje Perine of Oklahoma.  Carson is the one I came away more impressed with.  He’s supposed to be a really good receiver.  Looked patient but decisive (if that’s not too oxymoronic for you).  At 6’1, 215, 4.52ish, he’s a pretty good basket of physical traits for a UCFA. 

 

 

Nick DeLuca, ILB, North Dakota St.  Washed out due to injury as a Sr., but he was a tackling machine as a Jr. (when we would have been there scouting Joe Haeg). 

 

 

[Colts1324]

Woukd rather have Cunningham than Foster, but I believe both will do pretty good at the pro level. I don't like the idea of wasting our 4th round pick on a safety. You have us resigning Mike Adams and then drafting a safety as well. As much as our secondary gets hurt, we have our safeties of the future in TJ Green and Geathers. Keep Adams or sign a veteran that doesn't need to develop to fill the void if one of them gets injured. 

[pgt_rob]

Your number 3 draft pick isn't going to happen because he's returning to school. I would bring back Butler, Todman, and maybe even Turbin for change of pace back. He's been reliable.

[Archer]

Has Chubb announced he's returning?  I thought Kiper advised him to return, but that he was probably coming out... 

[PeterBowman]

keep Todman (he's a very good returner), keep Turbin as he's great in short yardage and change of pace. Keep Butler because he's proven to be position flexible and can be good depth at corner and safety. All 3 should be cheap cap wise.

 

Cut loose DQ...Edwin has made him expendable and Morrison has actually played much better lately (good news for next year hopefully)

 

Keep Walden, very good edge setter and can be a decent pass rusher---has only gotten better each year of his time with the team.

 

unsure about Adams (he's lost a step but still has some juice) Guess it depends on how they view Geathers and Greene together.---that'll probably be a very tough decision.

 

 

[Valpo2004]

We have quite a bit of cap space and I only see you extending guys who we can get on fairly cheap contracts and bringing in one FA from another team.  

 

Seems like you could add some more FA's from other teams easily.  

[loudnproudcolt]

Chubb is returning to Ga. for his senior season. I saw his tweet about it, and with the depth at RB, and how he has been limited by injuries, I think it is a smart move.

 

The one thing I did not see as far as cuts is Arthur Jones. He counts 7.5M against the cap and we save 5.5M by cutting him. It is time for him to go, that turned out to be a terrible contract, albeit because of injuries.

[akcolt]

I like it. We need an ILB I like Foster then Cunningham and Davis. That's what I'd look at. I would draft a CB in the 3rd I was looking at Sutton but take a look at Summers. I am starting to like him. Love Laundry

 

We are on the same page with what we need to do. This is a big spot for the team I hope we get it right. I would not rule out DB in the. 1st we need to take the best guy on the board I don't think that's going be an Edge 

[will426]

4 hours ago, akcolt said:

I like it. We need an ILB I like Foster then Cunningham and Davis. That's what I'd look at. I would draft a CB in the 3rd I was looking at Sutton but take a look at Summers. I am starting to like him. Love Laundry

 

We are on the same page with what we need to do. This is a big spot for the team I hope we get it right. I would not rule out DB in the. 1st we need to take the best guy on the board I don't think that's going be an Edge 

Don't need to take another there corner that high  olb should be looked at twice in top 3 rounds I think 

[Archer]

6 hours ago, akcolt said:

I like it. We need an ILB I like Foster then Cunningham and Davis. That's what I'd look at. I would draft a CB in the 3rd I was looking at Sutton but take a look at Summers. I am starting to like him. Love Laundry

 

We are on the same page with what we need to do. This is a big spot for the team I hope we get it right. I would not rule out DB in the. 1st we need to take the best guy on the board I don't think that's going be an Edge 

 

Actually, I think I got Landry from you.  You mentioned him in another post, and I looked him up and loved everything I read.  Looking forward to seeing his bowl game...

[Archer]

6 hours ago, akcolt said:

1st we need to take the best guy on the board I don't think that's going be an Edge 

 

I would really love to get a great Edge rusher, but I agree that's not going to be the best player on the board for us.  Honestly, though, there isn't another player that could realistically fall to us that I'd take before Reuben, Cunningham, or Davis this year.  I'd take a long, hard look at Tim Williams, but I think he's definitely going to be a risky pick compared to those three ILBs (and we're in need of another sure hit in the 1st like we got last year)...

[BCoop]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

 

I would really love to get a great Edge rusher, but I agree that's not going to be the best player on the board for us.  Honestly, though, there isn't another player that could realistically fall to us that I'd take before Reuben, Cunningham, or Davis this year.  I'd take a long, hard look at Tim Williams, but I think he's definitely going to be a risky pick compared to those three ILBs (and we're in need of another sure hit in the 1st like we got last year)...

 

If there is some unfortunate scenario where all the top OLB and the top 2 ILB are taken before we pick, I would be awfully tempted to pick up one of the stud CB's in the first. Someone like Humphrey, Tabor, King would look real nice in the secondary across from Vontae.

[Track Guy]

On December 19, 2016 at 9:31 AM, Archer said:

Well, now that the Colts are out of the playoffs (let’s not debate, it’s too unlikely at this point to plan for), I’m ready to impart my comprehensive off-season plan.  I expect a LB draft of a scale similar to last year’s OL draft.  One thing I’ve noticed is that when our D is not playing well (quite a few games this year), the big thing missing seems to be sideline-to-sideline run defenders in LB corps.  The line will do its job (though it was a bad injury year for the DL, so that wasn’t always the case), but when that RB finds his hole, there never seems to be a LB filling it fast enough.  I’m hopeful for Edwin Jackson (he’s made some of our most impressive LB plays this year in limited action), but, in general, the LBs are not too promising of a group.  This is especially true of the pass rush – no real possibilities for a top-tier rushing OLB on the team.  While that would be the top priority, it’s a riskier notion to find a pass-rusher in this league (more on that below).  I think LB will be in play for every pick in this draft.  Here’s my projections:

 

 

Off-Season Signings (by Priority/Expense)

 

 

·        Jack Doyle.  Universally loved in the locker room, and the best all-round TE we’ve had since Allen’s rookie season.  The money we spent on Allen last year is irrelevant.  And, at best, we could have a top duo to go with our solid WR corps.

 

·        Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Bengals.  May seem like an odd priority to some, but much of our CB depth melted away after TC this year (mostly due to injuries).  If everyone stays healthy, this’ll give us a top-tier group at the top of the depth chart.  Without a solid pass rush, we can implement a strategy of having such good coverage that the likely lack of pass rush won’t be a back-breaker.  Plus, having Robinson and Kirkpatrick under contract for a couple more years would insulate us from possibly losing Vontae after 2017.

 

·        Erik Walden.  If you’re desperately trying to improve the LB corps, you don’t start by getting rid of your best one.  He’s by far the best returning pass rusher.

·        Mike Adams.  He’s up there in years, but he’s been good and could be a veteran back-up to Geathers and Green.  An insurance policy that still has some gas left in his tank IMO.

 

·           Mike Adams.  He’s up there in years, but he’s been good and could be a veteran back-up to Geathers and Green.  An insurance policy that still has some gas left in his tank IMO.  

 

    Zach Kerr.  He won’t break the bank, and competition to make the roster will be steep.  If they can stay healthy next year, our DL will be very good if we just keep who we’ve got (particularly if Henry Anderson returns to form).

 

    Jonnothan Harrison.  He’s had more success staying healthy than Thornton, and I think he could be a good back-up interior lineman for a few more years.  

 

     Salary Cap Casualty:  D’Qwell Jackson.  His suspension made me even more certain of this move.  

 

     Let Walk: Mathis, Cole, Thornton, Butler, Turbin, Todman.

·       

     Maybe, MAYBE, bring back Cole if he shows okay these last two weeks and is willing to work for cheap…

 

 

Draft

 

 

·        My mock drafts tend to be pessimistic – I’m always figuring that if I’m right about potential sleepers, then other teams will see it too and he’ll be drafted earlier that current conventional wisdom would indicate.  So, you’ll probably hate my draft…

 

 

1) Reuben Foster, ILB, Florida.  It’s a very good year for first round ILBs.  If we’re drafting around #16, Zach Cunningham should be there if Foster’s not.  (And Jarrad Davis of Florida is very under-rated at this point – I might prefer him to Cunningham.)  At any rate, Foster is a rare five-star recruit who actually lived up to the hype.  Sideline to sideline speed, good in coverage, great tackler, good leadership.  There’s nothing not to like here.  Starting him next to Edwin would totally set a new tone for this D.

 

 

2) Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College.  How do you get a top pass-rusher when you don’t have one?  A number of answers, but, in general: you pay through the nose in FA, you draft one in the top 10 picks of the draft, or you hit on a draft sleeper.  The latter 1st  rounders completely bust as often as they hit it big.  So, if I’m gonna gamble, I’d much rather do it in the 2nd round than in the 1st.  Landry ripped off 15 sacks this year after being previously considered a really good run defender.  A Junior - there’s no guaranty he comes out this year.  At 6’3, 250, he is prototypical for our Rush OLB role. 

 

 

3) Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia.  A swing for the fences.  A health risk who hasn’t returned to his former form, he would have been considered a sure 1^st rounder a couple of years ago.  Love his size and strength, giving him the ability to be the short yardage guy, in addition to being the feature back of the future.  If he fully returns to form, he’ll be a steal, though Kiper (who the heck is Mel Kiper?) advised him to go back to school.  Royce Freeman is a very similar option, in that he was considered a possible 1^st rounder before an injury-plagued season.  Failing these, there are other viable RBs in the 3^rd…Kamara, McNichols, Gallman, etc.  It’s a good RB year.

 

 

4) Jordan Willis, LB, Kansas St.  At 6’5, 258, he’d be the second draftee to develop and compete for playing time with Ayers at Rush OLB.  He’s one of those guys you’d have to get into camp and see where he fits best.  A bit tall for ILB, but he could possibly set the edge at SAM, or be a pass-rush specialist at the Rush OLB or DE positions.  He had a productive career rushing the passer, getting 10.5 sacks this year at DE. 

 

 

4) (Compensatory) Tedric Thompson, S, Colorado.  Talented guy in a talented secondary.  Pulled down 7 interceptions as a Sr., after a productive 2015 in coverage too.  6’, 205 – should fit in as a back-up to T.J. Green and Geathers.  This is an area in need of more depth, even if Adams returns.

 

5) Nate Theaker, OL, Wayne St.  I like our OL draft moves last year, and I think they’ve given us good developing depth.   Looking forward one year, I’m not sure we’ll be able to afford to keep Mewhort after 2017.  Haeg would be his obvious replacement, but that would set some things in motion:  Good in the conversation at both RG and RT, Clark competing for the job he was drafted for at RT, another multiple player search for RG, development of new swing tackle depth, etc.  I know I’m over-thinking, but the bottom line is that I’d like to keep the OL depth vacuum we’ve had in recent years from developing again.  As for Theaker, he’s 6’5”,305 lb., and his resume will remind you of Haeg’s.  Very lightly recruited out of HS, he’s done nothing but perform at a high level at a small college.  He played LT as a Sr., but played a lot of RG and RT in the past.  Should test quick and fluid, like a ZBS OG (and again like Haeg)…

 

 

6) Tyus Bowser, LB, Oklahoma St.  Would consider another RB, but here’s another case of looking for LBs to upgrade the corps.  He looked really good in coverage when I watched him.  And while he didn’t rush the passer very often, he looked really quick around the edge to me.  Still he had 8.5 sacks, 12 tfl, 3 pbu, 9 qbh, and 47 tackles as a Sr.  At 6’2, 240, he could probably fit in about anywhere in our LB corps.  Looking for connections, Curt Maggit’s brother is a defensive assistant in the Houston coaching staff…so, there’s that.

 

 

Undrafted College FAs

 

 

Chris Carson, RB, Oklahoma St.  I mainly tuned into the Big-12 championship to watch Carson and Samaje Perine of Oklahoma.  Carson is the one I came away more impressed with.  He’s supposed to be a really good receiver.  Looked patient but decisive (if that’s not too oxymoronic for you).  At 6’1, 215, 4.52ish, he’s a pretty good basket of physical traits for a UCFA. 

 

 

Nick DeLuca, ILB, North Dakota St.  Washed out due to injury as a Sr., but he was a tackling machine as a Jr. (when we would have been there scouting Joe Haeg). 

 

 

 

Chubb isn't coming out and neither is Nick DeLuca. I love most of your picks though, replace Chubb with Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and I'll score your draft like a 9.8/10

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Track Guy said:

 

Chubb isn't coming out and neither is Nick DeLuca. I love most of your picks though, replace Chubb with Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and I'll score your draft like a 9.8/10

 

Funny, Kamara is who I settled on when pgt_rob pointed out Chubb is staying in school.  Kamara has a chance to be a really good feature back...

[jseg18]

I'd say clean house at RB. Maybe, bring back Gore if he'd like to stay. Why not draft 2 backs like Atlanta did. I really like that kid from Pitt Conner. Pair him with a Dalvin Cook type.

*

[KB]

I would say if that happens they would want a short yardage runner like foreman from Texas to go with a kareem hunt or Darvin cook type. That way your able to keep the play book similar to Robert Turbin being there.

[Track Guy]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

 

Funny, Kamara is who I settled on when pgt_rob pointed out Chubb is staying in school.  Kamara has a chance to be a really good feature back...

 

Yeah I have Kamara as my #2 RB in the class personally. Right in between Fournette and Cook. 

[Creekside]

I'm really hoping they re-sign Turbin. He's not just a short yardage guy. He can move in space. He's a good blocker. I know journeyman RB's come and go and they all seem replaceable, but Turbin looks to be a cut above the norm. If they draft a RB, they can/should cut Ferguson.

[KB]

1 hour ago, egg said:

I'm really hoping they re-sign Turbin. He's not just a short yardage guy. He can move in space. He's a good blocker. I know journeyman RB's come and go and they all seem replaceable, but Turbin looks to be a cut above the norm. If they draft a RB, they can/should cut Ferguson.

I agree this would be the best option. That way they can draft one rb. Let todman be the fourth rb since he is mostly special teams. Let the newly drafted battle with gore and turbin for his spot. If gore plays at a decent level next year and turbin continues playing well we could have a "three headed monster". Its a long shot and requires alot but possible. The rookie would have to be pretty good though.

[akcolt]

19 hours ago, will426 said:

Don't need to take another there corner that high  olb should be looked at twice in top 3 rounds I think 

Another CB when did we take the first? I am about the best player at a position of need. CB is a position of need and this class has a lot of CB talent. We may end up with a DB in the 1st. 

 

CB in FA are dangerous you over pay or roll the dice on a former 1st round A guy like Robinson. We need to add a CB it's a position you can't ignore and we have been. 

[will426]

3 hours ago, akcolt said:

Another CB when did we take the first? I am about the best player at a position of need. CB is a position of need and this class has a lot of CB talent. We may end up with a DB in the 1st. 

 

CB in FA are dangerous you over pay or roll the dice on a former 1st round A guy like Robinson. We need to add a CB it's a position you can't ignore and we have been. 

Pass rush is better than corners especially when we play press coverage. Also I was saying we don't need to go high for a corner  we have solid starters @ corner period like any other team if your best corner goes down (outside of Denver) you will struggle..what we don't have is any pass rush besides Walden..I mean we could probably pick up another corner in the third but first two rounds should be best olb available but you gotta look at what Melvin has done this year and if you put rob in the slot (hope he doesn't become injure prone like toler) that's a solid group 

[akcolt]

8 hours ago, will426 said:

Pass rush is better than corners especially when we play press coverage. Also I was saying we don't need to go high for a corner  we have solid starters @ corner period like any other team if your best corner goes down (outside of Denver) you will struggle..what we don't have is any pass rush besides Walden..I mean we could probably pick up another corner in the third but first two rounds should be best olb available but you gotta look at what Melvin has done this year and if you put rob in the slot (hope he doesn't become injure prone like toler) that's a solid group

Going into the draft looking at drafting an OLB the first 2 rounds is not a good plan. We have holes at every level on the D and best player on D is how I hope we go. Let's look at our solid group at CB.

 

Vontae will be 29 by the start of next year and in the final year of his contract. I agree Melvin has done a good job. Let's not forget we signed him off waivers in September. That is not to say he can't be the guy at CB2 but that is not a given. His contract is also up the end of next year. A little competition is always a good thing. Those are the guys we are looking at starting next season. Robinson showed this year what most suspected he belongs in the slot not on the outside.

 

Butler is not under contract for next season and it is unclear if he is going to be back. If we bring him back my guess is it will be  as a utility guy seeing action at S and in the slot. After that we have rookie UDFA in Milton and a couple of young guys that have bounced around the league Morris and James. They may be the smallest CB's in the league Morris 5'10 James is 5'9 and Williams on the IR is 5'9 too. . I am not sure how you qualify that as a strong group.

 

That looks like a thin group to me. CB is not a position want to have to fill via FA. It is costly. I think with this depth of this group it would be a mistake not to get a CB. I was saying the same thing last year.

 

 

[COLTS449]

Signing Nick Perry, AJ Bouye, and one of Jamie Collins, Donta Hightower, or Zach Brown in FA would make the draft a lot easier. I want Williams in the 1st. He's going to be a monster, but it would be hard to pass on all those ILB's in the. The thing is we're more likely to find an immediate fix at pass rush in the 1st than it is the 2nd, a guy who could come in and put up 12 or more sacks his rookie year, but don't get me wrong. They're plenty of monster EDGE rusher who get drafted in the 2nd, 3rd and so on who have big rookie years. I'm just going by %. I'm pretty confident we can get a day 1 starting ILB in the 2nd. IDK. It just depends on who's available when we pick. We just HAVE to do a better job at finding talent. Our inability to do so is really destroying the team.