Roster analysis / projection

[Superman]

I'm starting to get really excited for the draft. Really excited. Gotta wait another 15 days, but I've been thinking about roster mechanics and stuff, and this is what I've come up with.

 

There are certain players -- 35, by my count -- that are practically locks to make the final roster. Without accounting for injuries between now and September, and without predicting significant events that could change things, I think these players all have a 75% chance or better of making the final roster:

 

100% -- Ain't Goin' Nowhere Division

Luck 

Hasselbeck

Hilton

Moncrief

A. Johnson

Fleener

Allen

Gore

Castonzo

Mewhort

Reitz

Mathis

Cole

A. Jones

Langford

Davis

Butler

Adams

McAfee

Vinatieri

Overton

90% -- Due to Contract or Depth Chart Status, They'll Be Here Division

Herremans

D. Jackson

Irving

Toler

80% -- Things Could Change, But Not Likely Division

Holmes

Thornton

Carter

Chapman

Hughes

Freeman

Walden

Werner

Newsome

75% -- The Draft Might Take His Job, But Probably Not Division

Herron

 

Positional Breakdown: QB-2, OL-6, RB-2, TE-2, WR-4, DL-4, OLB-5, ILB-3, CB-3, S-1, Teams-3.

 

That leaves 37 of the 72 players on today's roster, all fighting hard for a spot. We have 9 draft picks, and we usually sign 15-20 UDFAs. There's not enough room. Of those 37 players, at least 6-11 of them won't make it past Cinco de Mayo, much less to September. Potential cuts include Cherilus, Thomas, Cribbs, or pretty much anyone who wasn't a fixture on last year's roster.

 

The obvious crowded position is OLB. Which is why Werner is in italics. If we drafted someone like Dupree, Orchard, Harold, Gregory, Diggy, etc., Werner is a tradeable asset. Couldn't get much for him, but a future mid-round pick, or one of the underwhelming 2012 guys (Claiborne, Kalil, etc.) could be a good haul, free the logjam at OLB, and add depth at a position with more need.

 

So what? I think this has a bearing on the draft strategy. I've argued strongly against the idea that the Colts should draft specifically for need, but there's no question that the roster mechanics will influence the draft strategy. It would be nice to come out of this draft with two potential starters, and the only positions that are really available are RT and S. Those are also two of the easiest positions for a rookie to fill on Day 1. 

 

I'm excited because I think this draft is going to raise the talent level on this roster almost immediately. No duh, when you have a first rounder, but if we get a player that has a significant role right away, and takes the spot of someone like Cherilus or Landry, we just got better. And some of the "just a guy" players who played critical roles won't even be on the roster, hopefully replaced by more talented guys with upside.

 

I just wish that list of 35 had a few more "difference makers." This is the time to add them. I hope Grigson gets this draft right.

[throwing BBZ]

Barring injury Kerr is a lock.
With Cherilus, Reitz, Mewhort, and U John as possible RT`s, i doubt Grigson looks at RT as a need. JMO of course.

For Round 1-2, i predict a CB and ILB. And neither will be a starter.

[BProland85]

Barring injury Kerr is a lock.

With Cherilus, Reitz, Mewhort, and U John as possible RT`s, i doubt Grigson looks at RT as a need. JMO of course.

For Round 1-2, i predict a CB and ILB. And neither will be a starter.

That would be a horrible decision by your accounts then if the colts 1st and 2nd rounders don't play early, especially on defense where we need playmakers.

[CR91]

Barring injury Kerr is a lock.

With Cherilus, Reitz, Mewhort, and U John as possible RT`s, i doubt Grigson looks at RT as a need. JMO of course.

For Round 1-2, i predict a CB and ILB. And neither will be a starter.

 

our defense needs to stop the pats from running all over us and your solution is to draft two guys that wont start. great idea

[12isthenew18]

Current Colts Projected Roster Grigson has done a nice job filling holes, w/ just 8 spots remaining (originally 21). pic.twitter.com/aKewEz5RBY

— My Colts Account (@MyColtsAccount)

April 4, 2015

[Patagonia Chris]

Barring injury Kerr is a lock.

With Cherilus, Reitz, Mewhort, and U John as possible RT`s, i doubt Grigson looks at RT as a need. JMO of course.

For Round 1-2, i predict a CB and ILB. And neither will be a starter.

 

CB and ILB as the first two picks?!?!?! I'd be incredibly disappointed if this happened. It'd be like some jerk put a big ole lump of coal in my stocking on my Christmas morning. 

[Colts_Fan12]

I'm starting to get really excited for the draft. Really excited. Gotta wait another 15 days, but I've been thinking about roster mechanics and stuff, and this is what I've come up with.

There are certain players -- 35, by my count -- that are practically locks to make the final roster. Without accounting for injuries between now and September, and without predicting significant events that could change things, I think these players all have a 75% chance or better of making the final roster:

100% -- Ain't Goin' Nowhere Division

Luck

Hasselbeck

Hilton

Moncrief

A. Johnson

Fleener

Allen

Gore

Castonzo

Mewhort

Reitz

Mathis

Cole

A. Jones

Langford

Davis

Butler

Adams

McAfee

Vinatieri

Overton

90% -- Due to Contract or Depth Chart Status, They'll Be Here Division

Herremans

D. Jackson

Irving

Toler

80% -- Things Could Change, But Not Likely Division

Holmes

Thornton

Carter

Chapman

Hughes

Freeman

Walden

Werner

Newsome

75% -- The Draft Might Take His Job, But Probably Not Division

Herron

Positional Breakdown: QB-2, OL-6, RB-2, TE-2, WR-4, DL-4, OLB-5, ILB-3, CB-3, S-1, Teams-3.

That leaves 37 of the 72 players on today's roster, all fighting hard for a spot. We have 9 draft picks, and we usually sign 15-20 UDFAs. There's not enough room. Of those 37 players, at least 6-11 of them won't make it past Cinco de Mayo, much less to September. Potential cuts include Cherilus, Thomas, Cribbs, or pretty much anyone who wasn't a fixture on last year's roster.

The obvious crowded position is OLB. Which is why Werner is in italics. If we drafted someone like Dupree, Orchard, Harold, Gregory, Diggy, etc., Werner is a tradeable asset. Couldn't get much for him, but a future mid-round pick, or one of the underwhelming 2012 guys (Claiborne, Kalil, etc.) could be a good haul, free the logjam at OLB, and add depth at a position with more need.

So what? I think this has a bearing on the draft strategy. I've argued strongly against the idea that the Colts should draft specifically for need, but there's no question that the roster mechanics will influence the draft strategy. It would be nice to come out of this draft with two potential starters, and the only positions that are really available are RT and S. Those are also two of the easiest positions for a rookie to fill on Day 1.

I'm excited because I think this draft is going to raise the talent level on this roster almost immediately. No duh, when you have a first rounder, but if we get a player that has a significant role right away, and takes the spot of someone like Cherilus or Landry, we just got better. And some of the "just a guy" players who played critical roles won't even be on the roster, hopefully replaced by more talented guys with upside.

I just wish that list of 35 had a few more "difference makers." This is the time to add them. I hope Grigson gets this draft right.

I would love to trade for Claiborne but I think Werner should take walden a place he could be a pretty good sam

[Superman]

I would love to trade for Claiborne but I think Werner should take walden a place he could be a pretty good sam

 

I'm only floating that as a possible way to clear the logjam, and Walden has no trade value. I think the Werner trade would actually have a reasonable chance of happening. It would cost us an extra $2.6m in 2015, because there's dead money from trading Werner, and Claiborne has a higher salary. It would save the Cowboys about $1.5m.

[Colts_Fan12]

I'm only floating that as a possible way to clear the logjam, and Walden has no trade value. I think the Werner trade would actually have a reasonable chance of happening. It would cost us an extra $2.6m in 2015, because there's dead money from trading Werner, and Claiborne has a higher salary. It would save the Cowboys about $1.5m.

we could prolly get Claiborne for a draft pick I don't think he has any value with the cowboys

[wig]

CB and ILB as the first two picks?!?!?! I'd be incredibly disappointed if this happened. It'd be like some jerk put a big ole lump of coal in my stocking on my Christmas morning.

Let me guess, you want offense?

[Superman]

we could prolly get Claiborne for a draft pick I don't think he has any value with the cowboys

 

My only real interest in Claiborne is offsetting our potential deficiency at DB with our potential surplus at OLB. And if you take the guy who is the least effective pass rusher, and thereby the most replaceable, and flip him for a contract year corner who is probably better suited to our defense than the one he's been in, then you might have something good on your hands. I'm really not itching to get rid of Werner, or to acquire Claiborne. But if we had a chance to draft an edge player, but couldn't get a DB, then we might have a way to balance it out with that kind of trade.

[Superman]

Let me guess, you want offense?

 

How about a starter?

[wig]

How about a starter?

I think Kendricks would start, and a CB would be involved in at least nickel situations for a year before starting.

[Patagonia Chris]

Let me guess, you want offense?

 

I would prefer Safety, D-Line or O-Line with the first two picks. As long as Grigson hits on the picks though I'll be happy.

[Superman]

I think Kendricks would start, and a CB would be involved in at least nickel situations for a year before starting.

 

I don't think Kendricks would start unless you get rid of one of the three guys already on the roster. A CB would play dime situations, and would be behind Davis, Toler and Butler. 

 

That said I'd be good with Kendricks in the first, for sure.

[wig]

I don't think Kendricks would start unless you get rid of one of the three guys already on the roster. A CB would play dime situations, and would be behind Davis, Toler and Butler.

That said I'd be good with Kendricks in the first, for sure.

I guess it depends on the corner. Peters just might fall and would push Toler for the second spot, while pushing him inside on nickel downs in my opinion. I like Toler but don't think his health can be trusted enough to re-sign him. A long-term starter from his sophomore year on is a great pick.

[Superman]

I guess it depends on the corner. Peters just might fall and would push Toler for the second spot, while pushing him inside on nickel downs in my opinion. I like Toler but don't think his health can be trusted enough to re-sign him. A long-term starter from his sophomore year on is a great pick.

 

Entirely conjecture, but I don't think Peters is on the Colts draft board.

[Colts_Fan12]

My only real interest in Claiborne is offsetting our potential deficiency at DB with our potential surplus at OLB. And if you take the guy who is the least effective pass rusher, and thereby the most replaceable, and flip him for a contract year corner who is probably better suited to our defense than the one he's been in, then you might have something good on your hands. I'm really not itching to get rid of Werner, or to acquire Claiborne. But if we had a chance to draft an edge player, but couldn't get a DB, then we might have a way to balance it out with that kind of trade.

I agree I would not be against it I guess I'd just like to hold on to Werner for a future sam if possible and just get Claiborne for like a 6th or so but if we did trade Werner I wouldn't mind it if like you said we got another OLB

[Colts_Fan12]

I don't think Kendricks would start unless you get rid of one of the three guys already on the roster. A CB would play dime situations, and would be behind Davis, Toler and Butler.

That said I'd be good with Kendricks in the first, for sure.

idk Kendricks is pretty good in coverage if actually given the chance he could maybe win a starting job I see no reason why DQ would beat him. If we did draft him in all honesty is like for Kendricks and Irving to start but I know it wouldn't happen

[Superman]

idk Kendricks is pretty good in coverage if actually given the chance he could maybe win a starting job I see no reason why DQ would beat him. If we did draft him in all honesty is like for Kendricks and Irving to start but I know it wouldn't happen

 

That's all I'm saying. I'd love for Kendricks to take Jackson's spot, but we all know that's not likely to happen. The staff really likes Jackson, and he's usually decent, but he had some rough reps in coverage. Kendricks would play a rotational role in 2015, barring injury or a trade. 

 

And that's actually not the worst thing in the world, but I think in a perfect world, our draft nets us a couple of potential 2015 starters in the early rounds.

[loudnproudcolt]

CB and ILB as the first two picks?!?!?! I'd be incredibly disappointed if this happened. It'd be like some jerk put a big ole lump of coal in my stocking on my Christmas morning. 

So lets switch it around. Would you be as dissappointed with Kendricks in the first, and Quentin Rollins for example in the second. I would love that combo.

[NewColtsFan]

That's all I'm saying. I'd love for Kendricks to take Jackson's spot, but we all know that's not likely to happen. The staff really likes Jackson, and he's usually decent, but he had some rough reps in coverage. Kendricks would play a rotational role in 2015, barring injury or a trade. 

 

And that's actually not the worst thing in the world, but I think in a perfect world, our draft nets us a couple of potential 2015 starters in the early rounds.

 

Some questions and comments....

 

With the Colts having tendered Freeman a 2nd round contract,  does that mean we're locked into that deal?     If we wanted to cut/trade Freeman is there a cap hit involved?

 

I'm asking because I don't think Kendrick replaces DQ....   I think he'd replace Freeman. 

 

I think DQ is the Mike and Freeman is the weakside inside backer which I see as more of Kendricks role.

 

Your thoughts?

[Superman]

Some questions and comments....

 

With the Colts having tendered Freeman a 2nd round contract,  does that mean we're locked into that deal?     If we wanted to cut/trade Freeman is there a cap hit involved?

 

I'm asking because I don't think Kendrick replaces DQ....   I think he'd replace Freeman. 

 

I think DQ is the Mike and Freeman is the weakside inside backer which I see as more of Kendricks role.

 

Your thoughts?

 

Once he signs it, it's guaranteed. But he can still be traded with no penalty.

 

As for you projection, that makes sense. I just don't know if Freeman has any trade market. 

[Gavin]

Once he signs it, it's guaranteed. But he can still be traded with no penalty.

 

As for you projection, that makes sense. I just don't know if Freeman has any trade market. 

Not likely with the draft coming up so soon I don't think, But he was a player when healthy who proved to be a playmaker, Which I expect he returns to form this coming year if healthy, Underrated quite a bit when healthy I think

[NewColtsFan]

Once he signs it, it's guaranteed. But he can still be traded with no penalty.

 

As for you projection, that makes sense. I just don't know if Freeman has any trade market. 

 

Honestly,  I think there would be a modest market for Freeman,  for several reasons.

 

First,  this is not a good year for ILB's.

 

Second,   his first two years with the Colts, Freeman was in the top-10 in tackles.   No small feat.    And this year he had a solid year in tackles per game, but his overall total was down because he missed 4 games I think with injury.    Had he played in those he might've been close in top-10 tackles for a 3rd straight year.

 

Third,  he's affordable.   Freeman's not going to cramp the salary cap for some team.

 

So,  perhaps a 5th round pick?

 

Pure speculation of course,  but it doesn't seem totally unreasonable to me.    Meaning, I don't think I'm being a homer on this one.

[akcolt]

I think a S CB DL OL LB would all have a chance to come in and help the team right away. A RB too although I don't see it as a need at least not early.

A S and RT could win jobs in camp. DL would rotate as would a good coverage LB or rush backer. Providing immediate help.

We need to get a CB so we are not buying a FA next year. We don't have a long term solution at RT on the roster that I see.

And C is still the elephant in the room. Holmes being able to stay healthy is concerning. I think we are rolling the dice on him again. I hope Harrison has matured game slows down for him.

I'm not sure I want to give up on Werner for a CB that won't be as good as what we can get in the draft.

I'm not so sure it's a bad thing that we basically have our starters going into the draft. It allows you to take BPA. if someone is to good to pass on while focusing on the needs of the team's future.

If we come out with solid DL help a S and Toler and GC's replacements with 4 picks that leaves us 5 picks to try and add more talent that will pay off down the road.

We were just in the AFC championship game it makes sense that we don't have a lot of spots up for grabs. We need the young guys to continue to grow and plan ahead in positions where age and or free agency is going to get us. IMO

[Wesk7]

I think Kendricks is someone who would be to good to pass on if he were available. I think he would work in and maybe eventually start. Freeman was a beast for two years. Last year was a down year. But I would also really hope we can draft Goldman. I think Goldman would start day 1 and give us the most playmaking in year 1. Cornerback is a big need as well though. I wouldn't be surprised or upset if we went cb in the first. I'd prefer we grab someone in the third though like Charles Gaines. I think we could also have a safety come in and start eventually this season and we could get that safety in the 4th or 6th.

[BlueShoe]

My only real interest in Claiborne is offsetting our potential deficiency at DB with our potential surplus at OLB. And if you take the guy who is the least effective pass rusher, and thereby the most replaceable, and flip him for a contract year corner who is probably better suited to our defense than the one he's been in, then you might have something good on your hands. I'm really not itching to get rid of Werner, or to acquire Claiborne. But if we had a chance to draft an edge player, but couldn't get a DB, then we might have a way to balance it out with that kind of trade.

Nice post. And it opens up the draft for us too.

I believe Werner could replace Walden within the next few years, but I like your idea better because it addresses the now.

[wig]

That's all I'm saying. I'd love for Kendricks to take Jackson's spot, but we all know that's not likely to happen. The staff really likes Jackson, and he's usually decent, but he had some rough reps in coverage. Kendricks would play a rotational role in 2015, barring injury or a trade.

And that's actually not the worst thing in the world, but I think in a perfect world, our draft nets us a couple of potential 2015 starters in the early rounds.

See, I don't necessarily care if they start next year. I want them to get a lot of PT in year one and be a playmaker year two or three.

[Jason_]

our defense needs to stop the pats from running all over us and your solution is to draft two guys that wont start. great idea

 

to be fair, throwing BBZ did not say that was his solution...he said it was his prediction.

[DougDew]

Barring injury Kerr is a lock.

With Cherilus, Reitz, Mewhort, and U John as possible RT`s, i doubt Grigson looks at RT as a need. JMO of course.

For Round 1-2, i predict a CB and ILB. And neither will be a starter.

I tend to agree with this for a few reasons. In order for a draft pick to start, there has to be a match between the talent available at #29 and the starting roster. If Cherilous' injury lingers, then RT becomes a spot that the talent taken at #29 (in this draft) can start. I don't really see any other position where who would likely be available at #29 would also be able to supplant a starter. If Landon Collins is available, then he would probably start over Lowery.

The talent likely available at #29 would not supplant starters at QB, LT, LG, C, RG, TE, WR, CB, ILB, OLB, NT, or DT. A CB in round 1 and an ILB in round 2 would see a lot of playing time, but would not start over Toler and DQ.

I can see an argument that an interior OL at 29 would be an upgrade over what we have, and that is possible, but that player would not start over who is there now. Same with DT over Langford...lots of PT, but won't start.

Frankly, I think a lot of people are overlooking the need for a CB. I prefer the depth we have behind Langford, Chap, and Jones in Hughes, Kerr, and Quarrels, than I do the depth behind Davis, Toler, and Butler....whoever they are.

[Superman]

See, I don't necessarily care if they start next year. I want them to get a lot of PT in year one and be a playmaker year two or three.

 

I mostly agree. I've been preaching up a storm about BPA and all that, and I think that's the right way to go. But I hope the board magically falls in a way where BPA and most pressing needs line up perfectly. I think a RT in the first and a safety in the second would be awesome. 

[Superman]

Honestly,  I think there would be a modest market for Freeman,  for several reasons.

 

First,  this is not a good year for ILB's.

 

Second,   his first two years with the Colts, Freeman was in the top-10 in tackles.   No small feat.    And this year he had a solid year in tackles per game, but his overall total was down because he missed 4 games I think with injury.    Had he played in those he might've been close in top-10 tackles for a 3rd straight year.

 

Third,  he's affordable.   Freeman's not going to cramp the salary cap for some team.

 

So,  perhaps a 5th round pick?

 

Pure speculation of course,  but it doesn't seem totally unreasonable to me.    Meaning, I don't think I'm being a homer on this one.

 

I think a 5th for Freeman is reasonable. But that would be a post-draft move, so we're talking about a 2016 5th. Maybe upgrade it to a 4th...

 

Even then, the question is whether you'd rather have Kendricks plus a future mid round pick, or Kendricks plus another year of Freeman. And either way, you still need a replacement for Jackson. 

[wig]

I mostly agree. I've been preaching up a storm about BPA and all that, and I think that's the right way to go. But I hope the board magically falls in a way where BPA and most pressing needs line up perfectly. I think a RT in the first and a safety in the second would be awesome.

That's obviously ideal.

I would be plenty fine with a RT then safety, and believe there is potentially great value at those positions in those rounds.

[Superman]

That's obviously ideal.

I would be plenty fine with a RT then safety, and believe there is potentially great value at those positions in those rounds.

 

Peat and Randall aren't my favorites, but if they were our first two picks, I'd probably be pretty happy. 

[NewColtsFan]

Peat and Randall aren't my favorites, but if they were our first two picks, I'd probably be pretty happy. 

 

I'm surprised about your view on Peat.

 

But if Randall isn't one of your favorites,  who would you hope the Colts get get to play safety in R2 or 3?

[Superman]

I'm surprised about your view on Peat.

 

But if Randall isn't one of your favorites,  who would you hope the Colts get get to play safety in R2 or 3?

 

I like the idea of converting Josh Shaw or Eric Rowe to safety. I think Randall in the second is reasonable; I think he's a top 75 player. I also like Adrian Amos, but I think he's more of a 4th-5th rounder.

 

And I do like Peat. I just like Collins and Scherff more.

[NewColtsFan]

I like the idea of converting Josh Shaw or Eric Rowe to safety. I think Randall in the second is reasonable; I think he's a top 75 player. I also like Adrian Amos, but I think he's more of a 4th-5th rounder.

 

And I do like Peat. I just like Collins and Scherff more.

 

For what it's worth,  I like Scherff and Collins more as well.    I think Peat is about 20th on my board.

 

As for safety,  I'd be OK with taking Randall, Smith or Rowe at 61.    I just hope one of them is there.....

[Superman]

For what it's worth,  I like Scherff and Collins more as well.    I think Peat is about 20th on my board.

 

As for safety,  I'd be OK with taking Randall, Smith or Rowe at 61.    I just hope one of them is there.....

 

I'm torn on Smith. Need to watch him again.

[DougDew]

I like the idea of converting Josh Shaw or Eric Rowe to safety.

I like this idea as well. With the signing of Adams, Lowery, and Guy, an immediate need for a starter is not really pressing, IMO...there would be some time for Shaw/Rowe to adjust.

How about tossing these defensive minded mock draft on their ears and use the first two picks on offensive playmakers? I think the O lacked speed and threats last year. Other than TY, who did the opposing D really have to account for? I'm kinda liking the idea of getting a 4.35/4.4 guy in Coleman at RB and a wiggle YAC guy like Lockett with the second pick. Ideally trading down and grabbing Coleman and Lockett in the 2nd round would be great. That would leave a 3rd, 2 4ths, a 5th and 2 6ths to focus on the D and possibly future RT (Ryan Diem was a 4th).

I agree with everyone about the D also needing playmakers. I'm just not sure that the draft is lining up with getting a defensive playmaker at 29, so I wouldn't feel bad about having to use mid rounders on the D this year, with the talent upgrade to the D coming next year when these guys develop and take the place of DQ, Toler, and the aging S's.

I also agree with you that the BPA at 29 may likely be a RT. But unless you have some double-secret knowledge as to the extent of Cherilous' injury, I don't think I'd want to invest a first round pick in a RT when it may turn out that Cherilous is just fine.

I like the idea of not wasting the high round picks, and I'm thinking guys like Coleman and Lockett can help the team immediately more than maybe any other players in the draft. They would also likely be close to being the BPAs in the second round.