Double A Breakdown: Week 1 vs Oakland Raiders

[Andy]

Double A Breakdown is back!!

 

 

 

What the Colts have to do to Win

Let’s start on offense. The Colts need to have a balanced smart attack. They don’t have to be aggressive, they don’t have to take tons of shots down the field; all they need to do is just establish a running game and do short crisp passes. The Colts should only go after the high percentage passes. Andrew Luck should run the ball too if he feels pressured, because he usually makes his mistakes when he’s pressured, so if he feels the heat, he should leave the “kitchen.” He cannot take many risks. They should avoid the risks.

For the running game, they should try and run it as much as they pass (hence the meaning of balance). Ahmad Bradshaw is probable for the game, but they shouldn’t overuse him. That’s where Vick Ballard comes into play. The Colts should try and utilize Ballard more than Bradshaw; they need to ease him into the lineup. Even give Donald Brown a few snaps. They can’t rely too much on one running back. They have 3 different running backs, and although the first 2 will see 90% of the snaps, they shouldn’t discount Brown.

The receivers will to run good routes and avoid errors. That’s what they should do most weeks, but this week it should be emphasized. They shouldn’t be sending their guys down the field; they should keep them within 18 yards of the line of scrimmage. Reggie Wayne is good at this, so I’m not worried. TY Hilton and Darrius Heyward should use their speed as an advantage. The Raiders are a fast team, but TY and Darrius are special. The Colts should try and get them to use “speed” routes, such as drag routes, quick ins/outs, arrow routes; nothing too technical.

Then there’s the most important part of the offense, the O-line. The offensive line is not going to have a tough challenge, but they are so weak that the Raiders could have a day against them. The Colts need to double team Pat Sims up the center. Sims can cause some trouble and should be a person to watch out for. He can be a menace in the running game. Sio Moore can cause some damage as a pass rusher, so Castonzo will have his hands full. However, he is questionable for the game. If he becomes more of a problem, they should use a tight end to chip him (both tight ends for the Colts are probably). If the offensive line can’t do well against these guys, they’re in trouble for the year.

As mentioned earlier, the philosophy should be balance and establishing the run. They should really focus on getting the running game going. Of course a win is a win, but they shouldn’t rely on Luck that much this game, because if they do, that’s not a good sign going forward.

Then there’s the defense.

The Colts’ front seven will have a golden opportunity this game. The Raiders’ offensive line is hurting, especially at left tackle, where they are down to their FOURTH left tackle, Khalif Barnes. Barnes is a decent backup on most teams. The defensive line will have a bit of a tough time against the Raiders’ interior. Stefan Wisniewski is a high level center and can handle Aubrayo Franklin himself. That will make Cory Redding and Ricky Jean Francois’s job a little harder. The pressure will have to come from the outside with Robert Mathis (especially), Erik Walden, and Bjoern Werner. They will have to do the damage. If they can’t get much pressure on this quarterback and this offensive line, this team is going to have a hard time going forward. The outside linebackers will also have to play contain against the running backs and the running backs (outside runs).

The inside linebackers will be important for spying on the quarterback and for stopping/containg the runs. Terrelle Pryor is an athletic quarterback that can run and can make big plays with his feet. The inside linebackers will have to contain the plays and not allow anything big to happen. The safeties will be the last line of the defense and stop anything that gets past the linebackers. They need to play smart against these guys and avoid the big plays.

As for the secondary, they’ll have to be wary. The Raiders have the fastest receiver core in the league, and have a quarterback with a big arm. They also have nothing big to lose. My point, they’ll be taking a lot of shots down the field, they usually take a few shots each game and have done it with Pryor under center. The cornerbacks will have to play off and will need one safety playing deep, especially on 3rd downs. The Colts cannot allow big plays and the Raiders can create some big plays, especially with Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. They have to watch out and capitilize on their mistakes. Terrelle Pryor is bound to make several mistakes and the Colts need to take advantage of that to secure an easy victory.

The defensive philosophy should be to contain the quarterback and running backs and avoid the big plays. It’s an easy philosophy. That means a good amount of zone defense, I recommend Cover 3, and have the linebackers spying on the QB.

 

 

 

What the Raiders have to do to Win

The Raiders will need some luck. That’s the first thing.

On offense, they have to find a weakness in the Colts’ defense and then exploit it. They have to stab the wound. They’re going to have to be electric, and make big plays. They have to be aggressive; a conservative approach against the Colts, in Indianapolis, will cost them the game. They need to take shots down the field and attack their secondary. They can’t be passive, because that may work a couple of times during the game, but it definitely won’t be enough to beat the Colts, who have a top 10 passing game. They’ll need to put up a lot of points and that’s how you have to do it, by passing it and being aggressive. Running it 25 times won’t do it. Finally, on offense, the offensive line will have to give Terrelle Pryor some time to make those throws down the field. If they want an aggressive vertical attack, they’ll need some protection.

On defense, they’ll need to slow down the Colts’ passing attack. If they can slow down the passing attack, they can significantly improve their chances of winning the game. What are some ways of potentially slowing down their passing attack? The first thing they must do is get pressure on Luck. Their offensive line is weak and if they blitz a couple of extra guys and even safety Tyvon Branch, they can cause pressure and pressure is not good for Luck. We saw in the preseason and last year that when Luck gets pressured, he can make some bad decisions, some of which can lead to interceptions. Speaking of interceptions, causing a turnover is pretty important. They need to have a possession advantage over the Colts. If the Raiders can get a one possession advantage over the Colts that would be a big positive. That’s how they can slow down the passing game. To slow down the running game, they should stack the box on early downs, and if they see a trend of balance throughout the game, perhaps blitzing could be very good. They have some talented players on that defense, and they need to use them in order to have a chance of winning this game.

 

 

Intriguing Matchups

There are some intriguing matchups, but the one that has to be the most intriguing is the Colts’ front seven vs the Raiders’ O-line. The Raiders’ O-line is hurting badly and the Colts have some pretty good pass rushers. This could be a long day for the Raiders offense if they can’t stop the Colts’ pass rush.

Another intriguing matchup is the Raiders’ front 7 vs the Colts’ O-line. The Colts O-line has been very inconsistent the last few years and did little to change that fact in the preseason. Although the Raiders lack pass rushers, they can still manage to get to the QB. Andrew Luck cannot be hit often.

 

 

Bold Statement

The Colts will have at least double the amount of rushing yards than the Raiders will have.

 

 

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 31 vs Oakland Raiders 17

 

 

[Smonroe]

I'm glad you're having as hard of a time coming up with a way for the Raiders to win as I am. I keep reminding myself that they also have NFL players and anything is possible.

Watch out for the Pryor to Streater combination? That's if their 3rd string LT can hold off our pass rush.

Nice write up, as usual.

[SteelCityColt]

Good breakdown as always Andy.

[JlynRN]

Nice write up Andy !!!  I'm looking forward to a Great game tomorrow !!!!

[TKnight24]

Side note: The roof will be CLOSED for tomorrow's game via the Colts App

[PrincetonTiger]

Good read

[Dark Superman]

I believe we will score points.. But we need to stop the run and take advantage of their weak offensive line and create havoc.

[Gavin]

Im expecting Sio Moore to come on the blitz a couple times at least 

[Bluefire4]

Im expecting Sio Moore to come on the blitz a couple times at least 

Is Sio Moore playing?

[Bluefire4]

I hope if Bjoern Werner and Robert Mathis are getting to the quarterback they give Cam Johnson some opportunities.

[Andy]

Is Sio Moore playing?

 

Questionable, as stated in the article.

[TKnight24]

I hope if Bjoern Werner and Robert Mathis are getting to the quarterback they give Cam Johnson some opportunities.

Don't worry yourself; the word of the year is "rotation". No matter your # on the depth chart; everyone will play this season. Only positions that aren't rotating are QB, OL, LS, K, & P

Manusky has already said he'll be using a lot of different looks to confuse opponents. A defense that's simple for us, difficult for the opponent.

Pep Hamilton has also shown us in pre-season that everyone will get the ball and see the field.

We have nothing to worry about. All us fans have to do is sit back and enjoy the ride