Luck and his new weapons

[HtownColt]

All credit goes to Jerry Langston and Coltsplay for this great information

Colts draft analysis: Luck and his weapons

I’m absolutely delighted with the Colts’ draft. I was writing a blog post before the draft in which the thesis would be that it would be reckless and irresponsible to draft Andrew Luck first and then not get him weapons on offense. Sure, there are holes on defense, but without receivers, blockers and perhaps another runner, the multi-million-dollar kid would get killed out there.

And that’s exactly what Ryan Grigson did. In all, he got Luck two reliable tight ends, two speedy wide receivers, a big between-the-tackles back and a massive tackle who may move inside. He also managed to wedge in a pretty accomplished nose tackle and a decent pass-rushing prospect, so there’s that too.

1/1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford

Numbers: 6040/234/4.67c

2011 stats: 404-288-3,517-37-10 passing, 47-150-2 rushing, 1-13-0 receiving, 1 tackle

ColtPlay says: I hate to beat a dead horse, so I won’t. Almost everything that can be said about the Luck-Colts relationship has already been said. The only thing I’d add is that all those fans expecting eight or nine wins out of the box are probably being a little unrealistic. Peyton Manning — who still has to be considered the gold standard of Colts quarterbacks — was even more polished and NFL-ready than Luck when he entered the league, and came into a better situation with Marshall Faulk in the backfield, and he won just three games as a rookie. Luck will almost certainly develop into a top-flight NFL quarterback, but he will also almost certainly have a nightmare season as a rookie.

2/34 Coby Fleener TE Stanford

Numbers: 6056/247/4.51pd

2011 stats: 34-667-10 receiving, 2 tackles

ColtPlay says: That said, Luck must be delighted to have his favorite target and good friend come into the league with him. Don’t kid yourself; Fleener is a premium talent at a position of need. He runs great routes, has soft hands, is very tall and has deep speed better than about half the wideouts in the league. I think it’s very meaningful that when Stanford needed a two-point convert last season, Luck threw to Fleener. And they made it. The knock on this kid is that he’s not much of a blocker, but these days, aside from guys like Brandon Pettigrew, what tight ends are good blockers? Brody Eldridge is, and I don’t think that’s who the Colts need to see on offense very often. A strong tight end, especially one who can pull safeties off the line of scrimmage and offer a variety of third-down options, is exactly what a young quarterback needs. It will be a tough first year for Luck, but having Fleener in the fold will make it a heck of a lot easier. He may not have a ton of catches in his first year, but his ability to pull the safeties off the line, offer a reliable (and familiar) target in the red zone and be able to play jump ball with safeties (or corners if he lines up wide) will be a huge boost for his rookie quarterback's confidence.

3/64 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson

Numbers: 6032/255/4.89c

2011 stats: 50-598-8 receiving, 4 tackles, 1 assist

ColtPlay says: I was flabbergasted when Colts fans considered this a bad pick. Really? Most NFL offenses run two-tight end set about 70-75 percent of the time; so a “second” tight end is basically a full-time player. And, although Allen is shorter and slower than Fleener, he is blessed with some of the best hands ever to grip a football. In fact, until he ran a horrible forty at the Combine, many considered Allen a first-round pick. Despite the familiarity Luck has with Fleener, I think you’ll see Allen have more catches as a rookie because he’ll be the guy running the short outlet routes on third down while the safeties are trying to chase Fleener. Consider him Luck’s security blanket.

3/92 T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International

Numbers: 5095/183/4.34pd

2011 stats: 72-1,038-7 receiving, 18-548-0 kick returns, 8-186-1 punt returns, 19-124-1 rushing

ColtPlay says: The Colts traded up to get this guy, so they really must like him. I do, too, but there are obvious upsides and downsides. On the sugar-coated side of the ledger, Hilton has astounding speed, great hands, short-area burst, top-of-the-line character and work ethic, elite leaping ability and overall football sense. But he is also haunted by a lack of height, a lack of weight, a lack of strength and a lack of durability. He will compete with free agent Donnie Avery for Pierre Garçon’s old split end role, and will probably win it if he stays healthy. His stat sheet will probably have a gaudy per-catch average, but not as many catches as you’d like. Still, his deep speed will keep defenses from crowding Reggie Wayne, Fleener and Allen near the line. Hilton — a smart and patient runner — will offer far better return skills than Garçon, but will never be close to his equal as a blocker.

5/136 Josh Chapman NT Alabama

Numbers: 6007/316/DNP

2011 stats: 10 tackles, 13 assists, 3.5-9 TFL, 1-3 sack, 4 passes broken up

ColtPlay says: Before I address Chapman, I have to say that I was totally frustrated by the way the Colts fans interpreted the signing of two former Ravens. When the Colts signed Tom Zbikowski, fans rejoiced, claiming their woes at strong safety were over. But when they signed Brandon McKinney, fans said meh, we still need a nose tackle. But the two players played, give or take, the same number of snaps last year, and while Zbikowski was benched from a starting position, McKinney played extremely well as a part-timer behind an all-world performer. If you watch the film, you can see that McKinney looks like an up-and-comer, while Zbikowski causes far more doubt. That said, the Colts drafted a nose tackle and not a strong safety. Chapman is what you look for in a second-tier nose tackle: He’s phenomenally strong, he’s stout, he’s tough and he will play unselfishly through pain. He won’t get a sack unless he falls on a quarterback and he gets winded if he plays too long, but you could say the same thing about every nose tackle there ever was, except for a sainted few. I can see him and McKinney rotating on the first two downs, keeping each other fresh and doing that nose tackle thing. Because of an injury, teh Colts will not be able to see Chpman in action until late summer.

5/170 Vick Ballard HB Mississippi State

Numbers: 5101/219/4.65c4.56pd

2011 stats: 193-1,189-10 rushing, 20-187-0 receiving, 1 tackle

ColtPlay says: While I don’t have a lot of faith in the Colts current halfbacks, I would have preferred a speedy run-catch guy, but for a big guy, I guess Ballard’s okay. He doesn’t have great straight-line speed, but great lateral movement for a guy his size and an ability to make himself small when he has to. Look, he falls forward when he’s hit, and how many Colts halfbacks can you say that about since Edgerrin James? Still, he’s neither a natural blocker nor receiver, so don’t expect to see him in heavy rotation.

6/206 LaVon Brazill WR Ohio

Numbers: 5106/192/4.48c

2011 stats: 74-1,146-11 receiving, 25-137-0 punt returns, 3-77-1 rushing, 2-40-0 kick returns

ColtPlay says: Every year there’s a guy I root for, and this year it’s Brazill. Forget his Combine forty, this kid can fly on the field. But like Hilton, he’s a small guy who could be thrown around in college, so he may be in for a tough time in the NFL. And also, like Hilton, he’s a fine young man, the type you want to see succeed. They’ll throw him into the mix at split end and return specialist, and I would be very surprised if he did not stick at least as an extra.

7/208 Justin Anderson T Georgia

Numbers: 6042/335/5.31c

2011 stats: He’s an offensive lineman

ColtPlay says: Anderson’s the boom-or-bust guy this year. A former defensive lineman, Anderson is still learning how to be an offensive lineman, but has been very impressive so far. Ridiculously strong and quick, the concerns with Anderson are (not surprisingly) technique, durability and endurance. The upside on this guy at right tackle or guard is sky high, but the questions are also legitimate. I see his rookie year as one of few game appearances, intense coaching and lots of diet and exercise. If everything comes together, he could be a legit NFL starter. But he’s just as likely a career backup or even a second-year cut. It’s the seventh round, though, so well worth a gamble.

7/214 Tim Fugger OLB Vanderbilt

Numbers: 6032/248/4.60pd

2011 stats: 21 tackles, 12 assists, 13.5-54 TFL, 8-39 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles, 1-0-0 fumble recovery

ColtPlay says: Again, it’s the seventh round, so why not take some gambles? There are many questions about Fugger, but he has a great first step, fine college production and a sterling character. Look for him to make a living on special teams and outshine Jerry Hughes as the primary backup for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at outside linebacker.

7/253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois

Numbers: 6014/219/4.76c

2011 stats: 384-237-3,216-28-6 receiving, 194-1,379-11 rushing

ColtPlay says: I can't tell you how much love this pick. When the Colts get a chance to choose Mr. Irrelevant, they go with a marquee guy. No, Harnish is not the most polished passer among the draftables, but he’s enough of a passing prospect that he’s worth a look. Oh, and he just happens to be a better runner than most of the mid-round halfbacks. Look for him to make the roster as a No. 3 quarterback and don’t be surprised if the Colts build in some plays and formations to take advantage of his immense athletic talents. On a side note, I have been begging the Colts to draft an athletic running quarterback for years, so the selection of Harnish seems a bit like Christmas morning to me.

Also, the Colts have signed slow-but-talented Hampton CB Micah Pellerin (6003/194/4.61c) and stout USC inside linebacker Chris Galippo (6014/241/4.87?..

[Flash7]

The one argument that I don't get is that people always say "Peyton only won three games his rookie year, so we cannot expect Luck to win as many or more." That may be true if we can go back in time and plug Luck into that same exact situation that Manning faced.

Luck is joining a whole other team, in a conference that isn't as strong as it once was, and in a league where the rules greatly favor quarterback success. I think Luck can win more than just 3 games this season, and if he does, it would not be a knock on Manning. It would be a testament to the team and the direction that we are heading in.

[HtownColt]

The one argument that I don't get is that people always say "Peyton only won three games his rookie year, so we cannot expect Luck to win as many or more." That may be true if we can go back in time and plug Luck into that same exact situation that Manning faced.

Luck is joining a whole other team, in a conference that isn't as strong as it once was, and in a league where the rules greatly favor quarterback success. I think Luck can win more than just 3 games this season, and if he does, it would not be a knock on Manning. It would be a testament to the team and the direction that we are heading in.

peyton rookie year was back when you can manhandle receivers just about as long as you want making it harder for QBs..the league has changed a whole lot since then benefitting QBs

[scorptile]

htowncolt i agree which i why if anyone remembers last year when we had no offense or defense we still beat houston once and they were tops int he division. i still think this team could suprise alot of people and teams and make the playoffs. just like no one believed me that the pacers had a shot of not only making the playoffs but is contenders to make the finals. so mark my words and you can even quote me teh colts will win this year and make the playoffs.

[HungarianColtsFan]

I don't think 2 different players' rookie years can be compared in any way. The team isn't the same, rules aren't the same, opponents aren't the same...

Manning won three games. Period.

Luck will win X games. Period.

[betheafan41]

the one thing i hate is how people are talking about TY Hiltons height. yeah hes small for a WR but dont forget Welker is only 5'9 also and Welker has become a very good WR since leaving Miami. thing about hilton is he has good hands and can get off the line of scrimmage fast. he could beat alot of DB's, and if he is in the slot position he will be lined up with a LB half the time so he has the ability of breaking away from a LB and getting that short yardage the colts may need for a 1st down. not to mention his special teams ability next to zybikowski makes our KR and PR that much better. in my opinion. and i agree with all the manning/luck comparison for their rookie years. in the 90's they didnt have all the QB protection by the league like they do now. this is a different kind of football compared to when manning came in. im not saying luck is going to win 9 games but he wont lose 13. im saying 6-10 record his first year. which isnt to bad concidering the schedule.

[betheafan41]

htowncolt i agree which i why if anyone remembers last year when we had no offense or defense we still beat houston once and they were tops int he division. i still think this team could suprise alot of people and teams and make the playoffs. just like no one believed me that the pacers had a shot of not only making the playoffs but is contenders to make the finals. so mark my words and you can even quote me teh colts will win this year and make the playoffs.

I been sayin it since they got barbousa, that the pacers will be the sleeper team in the playoffs this year and that teams need to watch out because this is a pacer team who almost knocked out the bulls last year in the first round with just an average team and now their better. and seeing the bulls will prob get knocked out in the first round lol, I can see the only competition the pacers will have to get to the finals will be the heat.

[king general 317]

I agree we are a dark horse to win the afc south this year depending on how tough the texans is we can really just play without the pressure of keeping up with the jones so to speak

Also good read

[NWGirl227]

i was a little surprised when the team took Allen, but it makes perfect sense. as was pointed out, most nfl teams run a lot of te sets. furthermore, i believe Stanford ran its three te set under Luck last year -- with Fleener, Ertz and Toilolo -- over 80 percent of the time. i thought it was a great move. i also think Allen and Fleener's styles compliment each other very well.

[swflacoltsfans]

I don't get comments like he ran a bad 40, but he can fly on the field. Shoudn't he show that speed at the combine?

[Coffeedrinker]

It's statements like this, "A former defensive lineman, Anderson is still learning how to be an offensive lineman, but has been very impressive so far." that really annoy me.

Anderson played one game, yes one game at NT. In 2008 he played RG, in 2009 he played RG in 2010 he played ONE Fugger game at NT, he got injured and thought God was sending him a message that his place is on the Oline, so in 2011 he played on the oline again.

Once thing I thought was interesting from this NFLdraftscout site, is he started as a redshirt freshman until he injured his foot. One of his possible back-ups was... Cordy Glenn.

[Coffeedrinker]

I don't get comments like he ran a bad 40, but he can fly on the field. Shoudn't he show that speed at the combine?

especially when you watch the highlight clips of him his speed looks good at best and that is against MAC competition.

[Fx Stryker]

Don't forget the 2012 team is better than the 1998 team,

[Raycolts12]

Don't be surprised if Fleener and Allen turns out to be a better version of Hernandez and Gronk.

[AFCSouth]

Great analysis. I believe two things about this team:

1. It is going to improve week after week, and month after month, and the end of the season our record is going to be meaningfully better than the 3 or 4 wins that many are predicting. My prediction: 9-7.

2. Two of our final three games are against the Texans, who are expected to win the AFC South, and I think that this team will have matured enough to at least split with them.

[OZOC01]

The one argument that I don't get is that people always say "Peyton only won three games his rookie year, so we cannot expect Luck to win as many or more." That may be true if we can go back in time and plug Luck into that same exact situation that Manning faced.

Luck is joining a whole other team, in a conference that isn't as strong as it once was, and in a league where the rules greatly favor quarterback success. I think Luck can win more than just 3 games this season, and if he does, it would not be a knock on Manning. It would be a testament to the team and the direction that we are heading in.

Well said!!!

[OZOC01]

I don't get comments like he ran a bad 40, but he can fly on the field. Shoudn't he show that speed at the combine?

Not necessarily. Some people can run much faster during the 'heat of the battle' than they can running solo. Look at Jerry Rice (as a runner, not a receiver). He ran a crappy 40 time, but how often did you see him get caught from behind?

[OZOC01]

Unlike the 1998 team, a lot of the current leftover players are used to winning. The new coaching staff and GM came from organizations that are use to winning. Winning is more than just 'talent' (just ask the Cowboys and Chargers)...it's an ATTITUDE!

[bahhummbug]

Well said!!!

Agree.Comparing Luck to Manning as a Rookies are meaningless.Now we can hope Luck can Trump and pass all of Mannings accomplishments.Unrealistic yes but we can hope:)