Dline and pressure - kicking a dead horse.

[smittywerb]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What does it mean for this site to list the Colts defense as #8 in pressure rate? The chart looks like it says the Colts pressure rate is 38-39%, and I would think that means we pressure the QB on 38-39% of dropbacks (intended pass plays, including scrambles). I don't think that's right, do you? I don't think the Colts got pressure anywhere near that frequently in 2023.

 

PFR says the Colts got 127 total pressures on 648 dropbacks. That's 19.6%, and would be #22 in the NFL. Unlike the chart in the article you linked, PFR lists and explains their stat, so we know what it means. I'm not sure what the stat in this article is measuring. I looked at their glossary and didn't see an explanation.

Agreed, that’s the thing about these stats is that the compilers have their own definitions.  We have to take all the data we can, and then use what our eyes tell us.

 

Our pressure may be 38% according to that site, but when you take out things like when the QB holds the ball too long, then its probably closer to that 19%, which is what I believe.  
 

Me personally, I consider actual pressure when we hurry the QB within that 1-3 second drop back mark.  And honestly, 19% seems more plausible given my definition of pressure.  That’s why despite recording a team record high sacks, I still wasn’t a believer in our pass rush.

 

On my personal draft board for the first pick, I had Dallas Turner as one of the 5 I’d like for us to get (didn’t think Latu would drop to us, thought he was going to the Falcons probably).  Before and during the off-season, also wanted us to grab DE.  Seems the team saw what I saw as well. 

[AwesomeAustin]

7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What does it mean for this site to list the Colts defense as #8 in pressure rate? The chart looks like it says the Colts pressure rate is 38-39%, and I would think that means we pressure the QB on 38-39% of dropbacks (intended pass plays, including scrambles). I don't think that's right, do you? I don't think the Colts got pressure anywhere near that frequently in 2023.

 

PFR says the Colts got 127 total pressures on 648 dropbacks. That's 19.6%, and would be #22 in the NFL. Unlike the chart in the article you linked, PFR lists and explains their stat, so we know what it means. I'm not sure what the stat in this article is measuring. I looked at their glossary and didn't see an explanation.

If I were to guess it’s probably somewhere in the middle of the two sites.  I value PFF but I also value NFL.com bc it’s close to coming from the horse’s mouth. I’ve seen others saying certain pressures shouldn’t count but not sure discounting situations that happened is a good method.  The Colts sack numbers were at an all time high and I believe it’s bc they were a good line. With Partridge and the 1st round pick, this line could very well be great this year. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, AwesomeAustin said:

If I were to guess it’s probably somewhere in the middle of the two sites.  I value PFF but I also value NFL.com bc it’s close to coming from the horse’s mouth. I’ve seen others saying certain pressures shouldn’t count but not sure discounting situations that happened is a good method.  The Colts sack numbers were at an all time high and I believe it’s bc they were a good line. With Partridge and the 1st round pick, this line could very well be great this year. 

 

Got it. I just don't think we understand what that NFL.com stat is saying, because no explanation is being offered. And just to clarify, the other pressure stats I was using are from profootballreference.com, not PFF. 

 

I think our DL was decent last year. I know we had a lot of sacks, but I think some of that was circumstantial (seriously, we faced really bad offenses last season). The run defense was up and down, and there was a difference without Grover. We have some young guys that probably still have unrealized potential, plus new additions, so it's conceivable that the DL is better in 2024. It's promising.

 

But I think they need to be MUCH better, especially the pass rush, for Bradley's defense to work as designed. And that's the main reason why I'm focusing on these pressure stats right now. Bradley doesn't like to blitz (lowest blitz rate in the league in 2023; and his defenses have been bottom five in blitz rate every year since 2018). He calls a variation of the same two coverages about 70% of the time (Cover 3/4), and he doesn't disguise those coverages.

 

So the pass rush -- which is only going to be a four man rush nearly 85% of the time -- has to be the motor for the pass defense. We have to consistently get pressure with just four rushers, and that pressure has to happen early in the play because our coverages are conservative and predictable. And because we blitz so rarely, our pass rushers are almost never unblocked, so they have to defeat a blocker AND affect the QB quickly. 

 

That's a lot to ask of our DL, don't you think? They need to be more than "promising," they need to be a top five DL, maybe more. And while I like the Partridge hire and I'm eager to see what they can do, I don't expect that level of production in 2024.

[smittywerb]

Honestly, if Latu isn’t a certified monster on the line, I’m expecting the same also.  Marginal improvement.  
 

And the scheme is the biggest factor in my opinion.  CBs playing 7-10 yards off the ball, suspect safety play, lack of blitzing.  Ebukam, Paye, Latu, and Lewis would have to turn into the four horseman. 

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Got it. I just don't think we understand what that NFL.com stat is saying, because no explanation is being offered. And just to clarify, the other pressure stats I was using are from profootballreference.com, not PFF. 

 

I think our DL was decent last year. I know we had a lot of sacks, but I think some of that was circumstantial (seriously, we faced really bad offenses last season). The run defense was up and down, and there was a difference without Grover. We have some young guys that probably still have unrealized potential, plus new additions, so it's conceivable that the DL is better in 2024. It's promising.

 

But I think they need to be MUCH better, especially the pass rush, for Bradley's defense to work as designed. And that's the main reason why I'm focusing on these pressure stats right now. Bradley doesn't like to blitz (lowest blitz rate in the league in 2023; and his defenses have been bottom five in blitz rate every year since 2018). He calls a variation of the same two coverages about 70% of the time (Cover 3/4), and he doesn't disguise those coverages.

 

So the pass rush -- which is only going to be a four man rush nearly 85% of the time -- has to be the motor for the pass defense. We have to consistently get pressure with just four rushers, and that pressure has to happen early in the play because our coverages are conservative and predictable. And because we blitz so rarely, our pass rushers are almost never unblocked, so they have to defeat a blocker AND affect the QB quickly. 

 

That's a lot to ask of our DL, don't you think? They need to be more than "promising," they need to be a top five DL, maybe more. And while I like the Partridge hire and I'm eager to see what they can do, I don't expect that level of production in 2024.

Very good points. I strongly feel the DL will again be the strength of that side of the ball. I’m expecting a top 10 performance from the front 4. I’m not as worried about the DBs as most except for health. Blackmon and Brents need to stay healthy. I expect Cross and Flowers/Jones to improve with more playing time. Moore should be solid as always. Production > potential every time but there is a lot of room for improvement out of such a young position group. Especially in the turnover category. 

The linebackers are what I feel are the concern. I think they have reached their ceiling and it’s a very low ceiling. We hardly see any playmaking from this group. 
 

To summarize, in my opinion, the DL will be good with potential to be great, secondary will be average with the potential to create turnovers and the LBs will be poor with the potential to be average. All of this will add up to a middle of the pack defense. Let’s hope the turnovers and drive stopping plays come in the second half 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Very good points. I strongly feel the DL will again be the strength of that side of the ball. I’m expecting a top 10 performance from the front 4. I’m not as worried about the DBs as most except for health. Blackmon and Brents need to stay healthy. I expect Cross and Flowers/Jones to improve with more playing time. Moore should be solid as always. Production > potential every time but there is a lot of room for improvement out of such a young position group. Especially in the turnover category. 

The linebackers are what I feel are the concern. I think they have reached their ceiling and it’s a very low ceiling. We hardly see any playmaking from this group. 
 

To summarize, in my opinion, the DL will be good with potential to be great, secondary will be average with the potential to create turnovers and the LBs will be poor with the potential to be average. All of this will add up to a middle of the pack defense. Let’s hope the turnovers and drive stopping plays come in the second half 

This may be filed under strange but true.  

 

But I just read that the annual NFL Networks ranking of the top-100 players starts this week.   And believe it or not, our own Zaire Franklin is on the list.  He’s in the first group ranked somewhere between 81-100.   Remember, this list is created by NFL players themselves.  So Z appears to be highly regarded by his opponents.   Also, I read in the last week that the most under-rated player on the D is EJ Speed.   So perhaps those two make our defense a little better than it might appear at first glance.   

 

Perhaps some good for thought?
 

Just saying….

 

 

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

This may be filed under strange but true.  

 

But I just read that the annual NFL Networks ranking of the top-100 players starts this week.   And believe it or not, our own Zaire Franklin is on the list.  He’s in the first group ranked somewhere between 81-100.   Remember, this list is created by NFL players themselves.  So Z appears to be highly regarded by his opponents.   Also, I read in the last week that the most under-rated player on the D is EJ Speed.   So perhaps those two make our defense a little better than it might appear at first glance.   

 

Perhaps some good for thought?
 

Just saying….

 

 

Thank you. I just saw Zaire was ranked 100 and came here to respond. As always my post are my opinion and I’m wrong often. Zaire reminds of D’qwell Jackson who also played for the Colts and Browns. Racked up a ton of tackles every year but didn’t seem to make game changing impact. Saying that, opponents have him ranked high, he is a captain and the Colts gave him a hefty raise with a new contract. They easily know more than I do. 

 

[Solid84]

Franklin and Speed have the same strength though - run defense.

 

Honestly I feel our defense is built a little backwards. Steichen's philosophy is "pass to score, run to win", so wouldn't it be natural for the defense to be built to stop exactly that? Stop the pass (scoring) to prevent them from running (taking time off the clock)? Meanwhile we're running 2 run defenders as starters on the Dline (Stewart and Paye), 2 run defenders as starters at LB (Franklin and Speed) and our secondary is our most inexperienced and shaky unit on the team. I hope we get a lot better against the pass in all units on defense this season.

[smittywerb]

“Kwitty had probably the best off-season of any veteran I’ve ever had.” - Eddy McGilvra

 

I know I’ve said what I said about Kwitty, but I’m rooting for him!  Him getting better makes us a better team.  

[TheNewGuy]

1 minute ago, smittywerb said:

“Kwitty had probably the best off-season of any veteran I’ve ever had.” - Eddy McGilvra

 

I know I’ve said what I said about Kwitty, but I’m rooting for him!  Him getting better makes us a better team.  

I read about that the other day, thanks for sharing.

[smittywerb]

17 minutes ago, TheNewGuy said:

I read about that the other day, thanks for sharing.

Yeah dude, Kwitty is working for that next contract.  Love to see it.  If he does show out this year and earn himself a pay day, I hope he keeps up the production.  A quad of Lewis, Paye, Ebukam, and Latu has me salivating 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, smittywerb said:

“Kwitty had probably the best off-season of any veteran I’ve ever had.” - Eddy McGilvra

 

I know I’ve said what I said about Kwitty, but I’m rooting for him!  Him getting better makes us a better team.  

I’ve been wondering if anyone was going to pick up on that comment from Paye’s summer coach.   I deliberately stayed away, I didn’t want anyone to think that I was trying to get a percentage of his big contract that is sure to come.  
 

Im also thinking the finger prints of one Charlie Partridge are on Paye already.  
 

[ColtStrong2013]

9 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Franklin and Speed have the same strength though - run defense.

 

Honestly I feel our defense is built a little backwards. Steichen's philosophy is "pass to score, run to win", so wouldn't it be natural for the defense to be built to stop exactly that? Stop the pass (scoring) to prevent them from running (taking time off the clock)? Meanwhile we're running 2 run defenders as starters on the Dline (Stewart and Paye), 2 run defenders as starters at LB (Franklin and Speed) and our secondary is our most inexperienced and shaky unit on the team. I hope we get a lot better against the pass in all units on defense this season.

 

If your offense is doing what the philosophy intends, it shouldn't matter. If you can get a lead, you can stop the pass late in a game utilizing the strength of a deep defensive line. If you are tied, or even down late in a game, you obviously need a good run defense to get the ball back. I understand what you are saying, but I think it can go both ways from a defensive strategy. The whole purpose of the importance of that comment was that the offense intends on winning football games by scoring points and putting teams away by moving the sticks... 

[Hawkeyecolt]

9 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Franklin and Speed have the same strength though - run defense.

 

Honestly I feel our defense is built a little backwards. Steichen's philosophy is "pass to score, run to win", so wouldn't it be natural for the defense to be built to stop exactly that? Stop the pass (scoring) to prevent them from running (taking time off the clock)? Meanwhile we're running 2 run defenders as starters on the Dline (Stewart and Paye), 2 run defenders as starters at LB (Franklin and Speed) and our secondary is our most inexperienced and shaky unit on the team. I hope we get a lot better against the pass in all units on defense this season.

Speed is better in coverage than Franklin in my opinion.  I felt like you could see the improvement as the year went on.  

[smittywerb]

35 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I’ve been wondering if anyone was going to pick up on that comment from Paye’s summer coach.   I deliberately stayed away, I didn’t want anyone to think that I was trying to get a percentage of his big contract that is sure to come.  
 

Im also thinking the finger prints of one Charlie Partridge are on Paye already.  
 

Also:

 

- contract year

- competition 

 

this is will probably be payes biggest year in his career.  It’s a contract year and he has the shiny new toy ready to take his spot.  He has to show and prove.  

[NewColtsFan]

39 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

Also:

 

- contract year

- competition 

 

this is will probably be payes biggest year in his career.  It’s a contract year and he has the shiny new toy ready to take his spot.  He has to show and prove.  

For consideration…..

 

I don’t buy into the contract year talk.  Paye has always had a reputation as a very hard worker, both at Michigan and with the Colts.   By way of effort he’s always excelled.  
 

Ballard has always said D-lineman often take a few years to put it all together.  I think Paye is at that point.  
 

Just my 2 cents, and often not worth even that much. 
 

[ColtStrong2013]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For consideration…..

 

I don’t buy into the contract year talk.  Paye has always had a reputation as a very hard worker, both at Michigan and with the Colts.   By way of effort he’s always excelled.  
 

Ballard has always said D-lineman often take a few years to put it all together.  I think Paye is at that point.  
 

Just my 2 cents, and often not worth even that much. 
 

I don’t really buy the contract year talk either, solely because I don’t think a players 4th year just perks them up to suddenly performing… I look at it being more of a cumulation effect. You should be hitting your peak in your 4th year, in technique, physical shape, professionalism, etc. Guys can make a jump at any level of the early parts of their career. Of course some may hit a different level when the money is on the line, and perhaps the pressure to perform is higher. Some crack, some elevate under that situation. 

[Superman]

DeFo's comments today:

'We gotta continue as a group to have that constant pressure on the QB every game. That was one of the things, our pressure rate as a unit, throughout the season, it wasn't as high as, you know... you put the sacks and the pressure rate, it's... yeah it was great, sacks are great and all, but we gotta continue to have an outcome on the game and threaten the QB a little bit more, especially in the 4th quarter, in crunch time. Those are all the things we can accomplish as a group. Having Charlie, the new addition to our group, I think he's gonna help us take our game to the next level.'

 

😍

[smittywerb]

15 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For consideration…..

 

I don’t buy into the contract year talk.  Paye has always had a reputation as a very hard worker, both at Michigan and with the Colts.   By way of effort he’s always excelled.  
 

Ballard has always said D-lineman often take a few years to put it all together.  I think Paye is at that point.  
 

Just my 2 cents, and often not worth even that much. 
 

None of us can say what the motives are but you telling me if $100 million was on the line, that wouldn’t motivate you to set the field on fire?

 

I mean I agree, I don’t want to discredit the work players put in day in and out.  Paye has always had the reputation of being a hard worker.  But this season he’s in a contract year at one of the most expensive positions in the game, his team just drafted the best pass rusher (even DE) in the draft with their first pick, and this is his first contract after his rookie deal.  More than enough reasons to unlock the next level.   
 

And there’s also history of players who have breakout seasons in contract years and then fall off (excluding injuries).   So the historical evidence of contract year seasons is there.

 

And as I mentioned in this thread, Payes pressure rate has gone down every year.  You don’t think the team would bring that to the table when it comes to contract talks?  You don’t think that’s on Payes mind? 
 

Once again, not saying that’s Payes motive.  But I would bet money it’s definitely a factor.

[AKB]

On 7/24/2024 at 3:37 PM, smittywerb said:

None of us can say what the motives are but you telling me if $100 million was on the line, that wouldn’t motivate you to set the field on fire?

 

I mean I agree, I don’t want to discredit the work players put in day in and out.  Paye has always had the reputation of being a hard worker.  But this season he’s in a contract year at one of the most expensive positions in the game, his team just drafted the best pass rusher (even DE) in the draft with their first pick, and this is his first contract after his rookie deal.  More than enough reasons to unlock the next level.   
 

And there’s also history of players who have breakout seasons in contract years and then fall off (excluding injuries).   So the historical evidence of contract year seasons is there.

 

And as I mentioned in this thread, Payes pressure rate has gone down every year.  You don’t think the team would bring that to the table when it comes to contract talks?  You don’t think that’s on Payes mind? 
 

Once again, not saying that’s Payes motive.  But I would bet money it’s definitely a factor.

paye is the unicorn of NFL players who don't care about contract, or contract years.. yeah that's the right answer. 

[Solid84]

On 7/24/2024 at 7:45 PM, Superman said:

DeFo's comments today:

'We gotta continue as a group to have that constant pressure on the QB every game. That was one of the things, our pressure rate as a unit, throughout the season, it wasn't as high as, you know... you put the sacks and the pressure rate, it's... yeah it was great, sacks are great and all, but we gotta continue to have an outcome on the game and threaten the QB a little bit more, especially in the 4th quarter, in crunch time. Those are all the things we can accomplish as a group. Having Charlie, the new addition to our group, I think he's gonna help us take our game to the next level.'

 

😍

Music to my ears!

[GoColts8818]

On 7/23/2024 at 7:29 PM, smittywerb said:

“Kwitty had probably the best off-season of any veteran I’ve ever had.” - Eddy McGilvra

 

I know I’ve said what I said about Kwitty, but I’m rooting for him!  Him getting better makes us a better team.  

Good, they are going to need it.  Also, I agree with your last point.  I don’t care if I like a player or not, once they are a Colt I want them to do well because like you said them doing well helps the team.