A good 3-4 in 2 years, the Packers did it, can we?

[chad72]

Are we ahead of the Packers curve?

They had Rodgers coming into his element the first 2 years with a 4-3 D before they changed it to a 3-4. Year 1, Kurt Warner picked them apart though Rodgers was balling too, in the 51-45 Cardinals win over the Packers.

Then, year 2, everything goes right, in Rodgers' 4th year.

A combination of Ted Thompson's (and his scouts') drafting, hiring of Dom Capers, and players understanding it all.

Should we expect 2 years for our defensive unit and just 2 years to get it right to get into the playoffs with Luck at the helm and the cap space to mix and match the right pieces after 1 more offseason if both our drafts go right? Or will that be a high expectation?

Thoughts???

[oldunclemark]

Are we ahead of the Packers curve?

They had Rodgers coming into his element the first 2 years with a 4-3 D before they changed it to a 3-4. Year 1, Kurt Warner picked them apart though Rodgers was balling too, in the 51-45 Cardinals win over the Packers.

Then, year 2, everything goes right, in Rodgers' 4th year.

A combination of Ted Thompson's (and his scouts') drafting, hiring of Dom Capers, and players understanding it all.

Should we expect 2 years for our defensive unit and just 2 years to get it right to get into the playoffs with Luck at the helm and the cap space to mix and match the right pieces after 1 more offseason if both our drafts go right? Or will that be a high expectation?

Thoughts???

Gotta see who we draft

We lack talent on offense.........we need playmakers

[bahhummbug]

I have high hopes and alot of confidence in new staff.I in no way believe its going to take 3 years to get done.Were going to get alot of comp picks over the next 2 years and with solid draft we will be fine.

[Gavin]

Packers have natural Linebackers for their 3-4 they have a true nose tackle thats proven to be pretty good, ours is unproven, they have a hall of fame Corner in Woodson although hes aging and they have a good #2 Corne, this is gonna take more then two years. all of those positions the Packers got going for them we dont have good going for us at this point

[Jules]

Going to have to nail our draft picks. I will give us one advantage I don't think GB had, the NFC has been getting stronger and stronger since Rodgers took over the Packers. As many will point out though, in Favre's final year they were 13-3 and maybe an OT pick from the SB. Favre himself in his usual diva fashion has made snide comments about Rodgers taking over a very good team.

But, the drafting since Favre left has been pretty darn good at times.

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[Andy]

3-4 only work well when you have the right personel. You have to have quality at every spot.

The Colts must draft and sign well if they intend to have a good 3-4 in a couple of years.

[GoColts8818]

If we draft right and play the free agency game sure we can.

Frankly we have more peaces on defense to start with than we do on offense at this point. Honestly I think the defense hsa a good core to build around in Angerer, Conner, Powers, Bethea, and Mathis. (I left Freeney out because I think it remians to be seen if he'll be a Colt beyond this season). Add Redding to the mix as a free agent and we are only about three or our players away on defense vs. the offense who has holes at every poistion but QB and left tackle in terms of the long term future.

[Balzer40]

3-4 only work well when you have the right personel. You have to have quality at every spot.

The Colts must draft and sign well if they intend to have a good 3-4 in a couple of years.

That could be said for any defense, not just the 3-4.

[Andy]

That could be said for any defense, not just the 3-4.

Kinda true, but it's more important in a 3-4 than any other scheme. You can have mediocre D-lineman and some okay LBs and still have a good 4-3. Can't say that about the 3-4.

[ColtsPacersfan]

I agree what others has said. Got to wait to see what we do in the draft this year and next year. But as I said before, I see nothing but good things for the Colts future under the new era.

[Coffeedrinker]

There is a few things wrong with the premise of this thread:

1. 3-4 is a personnel package not a defense
   
2. Pagano's one and only year as a DC he ran a 4 front 58% of the time. And he only ran a 3-4 alignment 6% of the time. And he took over a D known for it's 3-4.
   
3. From what I saw of the Ravens last year he seemed to run more of an area control defense rather than a gap control defense. No, those are not official NFL terms that is just the way I could think to describe it. The difference is each player is responsible for an area until the ball gets to a certain point.
   
4. His defense seems to rely on players being versatile, smart, fast and strong.
   
5. I think the Colts have quite a few people that already fit that mold and they've already added a few more in Redding, Mathis, Zibs I'm not sure how about the DT but I'm willing to wait and see.
   

So why would they try to transition to a personnel package that the HC used 6% of the time?

[Larry Horseman]

There is a few things wrong with the premise of this thread:

1. 3-4 is a personnel package not a defense
   
2. Pagano's one and only year as a DC he ran a 4 front 58% of the time. And he only ran a 3-4 alignment 6% of the time. And he took over a D known for it's 3-4.
   
3. From what I saw of the Ravens last year he seemed to run more of an area control defense rather than a gap control defense. No, those are not official NFL terms that is just the way I could think to describe it. The difference is each player is responsible for an area until the ball gets to a certain point.
   
4. His defense seems to rely on players being versatile, smart, fast and strong.
   
5. I think the Colts have quite a few people that already fit that mold and they've already added a few more in Redding, Mathis, Zibs I'm not sure how about the DT but I'm willing to wait and see.
   

So why would they try to transition to a personnel package that the HC used 6% of the time?

Way to kill the thread. But, for real, these are all very good points. I think the question should be, can the Colts have a top 10 defense in two years, particularly in 3rd conversion %, time of possession, and turnovers? That's really all a team needs with strong QB/offensive play.

[Gavin]

There is a few things wrong with the premise of this thread:

1. 3-4 is a personnel package not a defense
   
2. Pagano's one and only year as a DC he ran a 4 front 58% of the time. And he only ran a 3-4 alignment 6% of the time. And he took over a D known for it's 3-4.
   
3. From what I saw of the Ravens last year he seemed to run more of an area control defense rather than a gap control defense. No, those are not official NFL terms that is just the way I could think to describe it. The difference is each player is responsible for an area until the ball gets to a certain point.
   
4. His defense seems to rely on players being versatile, smart, fast and strong.
   
5. I think the Colts have quite a few people that already fit that mold and they've already added a few more in Redding, Mathis, Zibs I'm not sure how about the DT but I'm willing to wait and see.
   

So why would they try to transition to a personnel package that the HC used 6% of the time?

Cause our defensive tackles "couldnt stop a nose bleed", they couldnt get penetration, they couldnt hold up enough to stop the run, from your number 3 point it sounds like your describing the Cover 2 not that your implying that cause your not as far as I know, Im not sure who can fit the mold of versatile yet, I think a couple of our defensive tackles would make better defensive ends, Nevis being the prime example and Id be willing to try Johnson out their cause he falls under the 'couldnt stop a nose bleed" category, so either make him a backup or try him at Defensive End in the 3-4 look but just as important is Corner

[Coffeedrinker]

Way to kill the thread. But, for real, these are all very good points. I think the question should be, can the Colts have a top 10 defense in two years, particularly in 3rd conversion %, time of possession, and turnovers? That's really all a team needs with strong QB/offensive play.

I think they can (have a top 10 D) and it's one of the things I like about what I saw of Baltimore's D last year is that he was not tied to a personnel package, he seemed to change the defenses based on the team they were playing, then down and distance, tendencies, etc. And I think that is very important in today's NFL. If you look back to the 2007 Giants when they played the Patriots in the SB the Giants changed their D every quarter and it really stymied the Pats (probably because their unauthorized film did them no good). Or the Saints vs the Colts in the 2009 SB. They completely changed their D from the 1st half to the 2nd half and then changed it from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter. And I think that is what Pagano wants to do is have three or four game plans for each game and I think it's going to take the NFL a few years to catch up when he gets it implemented.

The one thing that worries me is 3rd down conversions. The Colts were horrible last year giving up a 1st down 45% of the time on 3rd down. Yet they were ranked 31st. The team ranked 32nd was the Manusky lead Chargers giving up a whopping 49% on 3rd down. I checked all the way back to 2001 and that was the highest 3rd down percentage allowed in all that time. That really worries me.

[Superman]

Cause our defensive tackles "couldnt stop a nose bleed", they couldnt get penetration, they couldnt hold up enough to stop the run, from your number 3 point it sounds like your describing the Cover 2 not that your implying that cause your not as far as I know, Im not sure who can fit the mold of versatile yet, I think a couple of our defensive tackles would make better defensive ends, Nevis being the prime example and Id be willing to try Johnson out their cause he falls under the 'couldnt stop a nose bleed" category, so either make him a backup or try him at Defensive End in the 3-4 look but just as important is Corner

Wasn't Coffee saying (again, by the way) that the idea that we're converting to a 3-4 defense, as everyone seems to say these days, isn't necessarily the most accurate way to describe what we're doing?

Our defense is going to be different, and we'll use more looks and different fronts, but we're not going to be a hard and fast 3-4 defense. Not based on Pagano's year as coordinator, or based on the personnel we have.

[Superman]

I think they can (have a top 10 D) and it's one of the things I like about what I saw of Baltimore's D last year is that he was not tied to a personnel package, he seemed to change the defenses based on the team they were playing, then down and distance, tendencies, etc. And I think that is very important in today's NFL. If you look back to the 2007 Giants when they played the Patriots in the SB the Giants changed their D every quarter and it really stymied the Pats (probably because their unauthorized film did them no good). Or the Saints vs the Colts in the 2009 SB. They completely changed their D from the 1st half to the 2nd half and then changed it from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter. And I think that is what Pagano wants to do is have three or four game plans for each game and I think it's going to take the NFL a few years to catch up when he gets it implemented.

What a great point!

And maybe I wouldn't say that it would take changing the defense, necessarily, but embracing the concept of situational play-calling and having a flexible gameplan. That's something Caldwell and Coyer seemed to not get, and it cost us several games over the last two-plus years.

The one thing that worries me is 3rd down conversions. The Colts were horrible last year giving up a 1st down 45% of the time on 3rd down. Yet they were ranked 31st. The team ranked 32nd was the Manusky lead Chargers giving up a whopping 49% on 3rd down. I checked all the way back to 2001 and that was the highest 3rd down percentage allowed in all that time. That really worries me.

You've gone on record as being concerned about our rookie head coach. I'm more concerned about our defensive coordinator, to be honest, mostly because of what you say about the Chargers. They went from the #1 defense to a bottom half defense in one year, and they were atrocious on 3rd down. Now, I'd like to see the splits (3rd and short, 3rd and medium, 3rd and long, along with the scores and time on the clock), but the gross numbers aren't encouraging at all. I do know that the Chargers had a lot of injuries on defense last season, and I think Manusky was trying to use Antonio Garay the wrong way. But I feel better knowing that Pagano showed a lot of flexibility and implemented a lot of fresh concepts (maybe not X's and O's, but philosophical freedom in his play-calling and gameplanning). Those two will collaborate on defense and come up with some nasty stuff, I think.

And I think Arians and Christensen will do the same on offense. It will be a collection of rivals, in many ways, and I think that's good given how quickly things change in the NFL.

[Coffeedrinker]

Cause our defensive tackles "couldnt stop a nose bleed", they couldnt get penetration, they couldnt hold up enough to stop the run, from your number 3 point it sounds like your describing the Cover 2 not that your implying that cause your not as far as I know, Im not sure who can fit the mold of versatile yet, I think a couple of our defensive tackles would make better defensive ends, Nevis being the prime example and Id be willing to try Johnson out their cause he falls under the 'couldnt stop a nose bleed" category, so either make him a backup or try him at Defensive End in the 3-4 look but just as important is Corner

I would be really happy to discuss this with you but quite frankly I don't really understand it. They need to transition to a personnel package the HC uses 6% of the time because the DTs can't stop a nose bleed (although I prefer football talk, not cliches)?.

The one part I do understand... A Cover two is a gap control D, each player is responsible for one gap.. With, what I term, an area control D the area is different for each player and can also change based on the offensive alignment.

[Coffeedrinker]

Wasn't Coffee saying (again, by the way) that the idea that we're converting to a 3-4 defense, as everyone seems to say these days, isn't necessarily the most accurate way to describe what we're doing?

Are you saying I'm old and repeating myself. My wife tells me that a lot lately.

Our defense is going to be different, and we'll use more looks and different fronts, but we're not going to be a hard and fast 3-4 defense. Not based on Pagano's year as coordinator, or based on the personnel we have.

Well put.

And maybe I wouldn't say that it would take changing the defense, necessarily, but embracing the concept of situational play-calling and having a flexible gameplan. That's something Caldwell and Coyer seemed to not get, and it cost us several games over the last two-plus years.

LOL, I'm glad you are here to translate for me, it took you two sentences to accurately state what I still could not make clear in a couple of paragraphs.

You've gone on record as being concerned about our rookie head coach.

Since there is an record I want to be clear, my biggest concern for Pags is just lack of experience and that he may become overwhelmed with all the duties of a HC. I am not concerned with his football coaching ability.

I'm more concerned about our defensive coordinator, to be honest, mostly because of what you say about the Chargers. They went from the #1 defense to a bottom half defense in one year, and they were atrocious on 3rd down. Now, I'd like to see the splits (3rd and short, 3rd and medium, 3rd and long, along with the scores and time on the clock), but the gross numbers aren't encouraging at all. I do know that the Chargers had a lot of injuries on defense last season, and I think Manusky was trying to use Antonio Garay the wrong way. But I feel better knowing that Pagano showed a lot of flexibility and implemented a lot of fresh concepts (maybe not X's and O's, but philosophical freedom in his play-calling and gameplanning). Those two will collaborate on defense and come up with some nasty stuff, I think.

Good point and I will be patient with Manusky, it's not like he was under a good HC.

And I think Arians and Christensen will do the same on offense. It will be a collection of rivals, in many ways, and I think that's good given how quickly things change in the NFL.

The thing that worries me about Arians is sometimes he seems to out-think himself. Watching some Steeler games it's like every time the Steelers got a 5 yard run, he was so convinced the D would be set up to stop that run that he'd try a long pass, then it's 3rd and 5 and he'd try a slant and... drive over.

[21isSuperman]

According to Pat Kirwin, if a team is really diligent about it, they can make a good transition from 4-3 to 3-4 in 2 years. The Texans did it in one offseason...and a shortened offseason at that. With that said, Rodgers also had been in the league for a few years before taking over and had more weapons around him than Luck does now.

[Jules]

Discount double Andrew

[Superman]

Are you saying I'm old and repeating myself. My wife tells me that a lot lately.

Nope. Just saying that, no matter how many times it's said, we're not necessarily converting to a 3-4 defense. I think some people are going to flip when we line up in a traditional 4-3 and play a Cover 2 defense in the preseason. Even though it won't be all game, it's going to happen, and people are going to go crazy.

LOL, I'm glad you are here to translate for me, it took you two sentences to accurately state what I still could not make clear in a couple of paragraphs.

We've talked about what Gregg Williams did in the Super Bowl at length, and compared it to what Larry Coyer did. I agree wholeheartedly with those two paragraphs. Just don't want to embrace the idea that we're going to have an 11 man switch from drive to drive. My hope is that we can run a 4-2-5 that uses the exact same personnel as a 3-4-4, at least some of the time, and cause major anxiety in offensive coordinators and quarterbacks.

Since there is an record I want to be clear, my biggest concern for Pags is just lack of experience and that he may become overwhelmed with all the duties of a HC. I am not concerned with his football coaching ability.

Ah. I firmly believe that head coaches should leave the play-calling to the coordinator. There are some who can handle those duties, but they usually give autonomy over the other part of the team to the other coordinator (like Payton gave Gregg Williams full control over the defense, but called the offense). But I don't think Pags should try that, especially since he'll have a lot on his plate with a rookie quarterback and implementing a new system.

Good point and I will be patient with Manusky, it's not like he was under a good HC.

He did fine in San Francisco. There was a lot of chaos in SD last year, and you're right, Norv Turner doesn't help.

By the way, what kind of name is "Norv"?

The thing that worries me about Arians is sometimes he seems to out-think himself. Watching some Steeler games it's like every time the Steelers got a 5 yard run, he was so convinced the D would be set up to stop that run that he'd try a long pass, then it's 3rd and 5 and he'd try a slant and... drive over.

Yup. Very strange play-calling. And Christensen was no better last season. I'll be on the lookout for that. I'm not worried about too many passing plays this season, because I'm not worried about our win/loss record and the more passes Luck gets, the better. But in late game situations, the play-calling will be crucial.

[chad72]

Just to clarify, by a 3-4 in the title, I meant the premise of a new style of D, not the 3-4 literally since we are going to be running the hybrid as most of us know.

The fact that I believe we can embrace and perfect a new style of D in 2 years cannot be totally impractical if we had 2 good drafts and a good offseason next year, that is where I was getting with this.

[John Dee]

Gotta see who we draft

We lack talent on offense.........we need playmakers

one STUD changes that... I actually LOVE the way this O is setting up. A speedster and Wayne/Collie is more than solid.

Indy badly needs a speed threat outside. IF they get it, then I think Indy and young Luck are in for a very productive 1st year.

How good the D gets will determine the early success of the Colts.

[John Dee]

Wasn't Coffee saying (again, by the way) that the idea that we're converting to a 3-4 defense, as everyone seems to say these days, isn't necessarily the most accurate way to describe what we're doing?

Our defense is going to be different, and we'll use more looks and different fronts, but we're not going to be a hard and fast 3-4 defense. Not based on Pagano's year as coordinator, or based on the personnel we have.

Exactly... the coach and our roster will dictate this.

If one listens to Pags then they will know he will play the "best combination of players, at the best times" ... We are going to see a variety of D's for the next few years. Which is fine by me. I got so sick and tired of seeing Colt CB's 11 yards off the ball on EVERY DOWN.

Pags will work it out. And if Freeney is here with Mathis... 3rd down pass rush should not be a problem, but once again I fear we will be needing to stop the run. I hope Pags commits to doing just that.