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Kwity Paye's break out year?


Bolt Colt
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The Athletic expects a big year for Colts DE Kwity Paye

Kevin Hickey 

 

Throughout the offseason, Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye has been labeled as a breakout candidate going into the 2022 season by several outlets and analysts.

The latest to jump on board with a potential breakout season in Year 2 is Nate Tice of The Athletic, who is expecting the former Michigan edge rusher to take a big step after finishing his rookie campaign on a high note.

Paye showed off his initial speed at the snap of the ball during preseason but had an inconsistent beginning of the regular season while battling a hamstring injury.

Though Paye finished 2021 with only four sacks, a light bulb seemed to turn on for him in the second half of his rookie year: Paye had one quarterback hit over his first six games before racking up 10 over the final nine games he played. His pressure rate on pass-rush snaps went from 4.7 percent over those first six games to 10.5 percent over his final nine. That latter rate matches Panthers Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns.

New Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has historically been among the least blitz-happy play callers in the NFL, which puts more of a priority on the pass rushers to get to the quarterback. With Yannick Ngakoue’s career 55.5 sacks following Bradley to Indianapolis and All-Pro DeForest Buckner occupying the inside, Paye will get opportunities to use his speed and improving technique to tee off on opposing quarterbacks.

Paye should benefit from the addition of Ngakoue this offseason. With teams more likely to slide protection toward him and Buckner, the opportunities should be there for Paye.

Most of the offseason has been focused on the get-off for Paye. Those initial steps off the line will be crucial for the second-year pass rusher to become a significant factor on the defensive side of the ball.

Improving the pass rush is key for the Colts defense to make a tier jump, and Paye will be right at the forefront of that objective.

 

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What is a "breakout year"?

Just curious.   Is it a significant improvement over last season?  Or is it have to do with a player being considered on of the best in the league.  

 

He had 4 sacks and 32 tackles (3 for a loss).   If he has 6 sacks and 60 tackles (7 for a loss), is that a breakout year?   Or would it take 10 sacks and 75 tackles (10 for a loss) to be a breakout year?

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1 hour ago, Bolt Colt said:

The Athletic expects a big year for Colts DE Kwity Paye

Kevin Hickey 

 

Throughout the offseason, Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye has been labeled as a breakout candidate going into the 2022 season by several outlets and analysts.

The latest to jump on board with a potential breakout season in Year 2 is Nate Tice of The Athletic, who is expecting the former Michigan edge rusher to take a big step after finishing his rookie campaign on a high note.

Paye showed off his initial speed at the snap of the ball during preseason but had an inconsistent beginning of the regular season while battling a hamstring injury.

Though Paye finished 2021 with only four sacks, a light bulb seemed to turn on for him in the second half of his rookie year: Paye had one quarterback hit over his first six games before racking up 10 over the final nine games he played. His pressure rate on pass-rush snaps went from 4.7 percent over those first six games to 10.5 percent over his final nine. That latter rate matches Panthers Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns.

New Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has historically been among the least blitz-happy play callers in the NFL, which puts more of a priority on the pass rushers to get to the quarterback. With Yannick Ngakoue’s career 55.5 sacks following Bradley to Indianapolis and All-Pro DeForest Buckner occupying the inside, Paye will get opportunities to use his speed and improving technique to tee off on opposing quarterbacks.

Paye should benefit from the addition of Ngakoue this offseason. With teams more likely to slide protection toward him and Buckner, the opportunities should be there for Paye.

Most of the offseason has been focused on the get-off for Paye. Those initial steps off the line will be crucial for the second-year pass rusher to become a significant factor on the defensive side of the ball.

Improving the pass rush is key for the Colts defense to make a tier jump, and Paye will be right at the forefront of that objective.

 

 

   Yes, with an overall new attack methodology and better assets across the entirety of the line, Paye will be more effective in his year two.
 Stats are interesting, watching the player accumulate them is my joy.
 I believe he is going to be Very good.

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I think the analysis of Paye is that he is a bit of a short striding not-real-bendy type of pass rushing end.  Has superior effort and some strength, and decent agility, but not the physical traits of a Yannick or Mathis.   Can play the run well, but not the same body type as a pure pass rusher that's going to get gawdy stats.

 

It seems that he will play most downs and will split time between RDE and LDE, so his numbers might be pretty high but his percentages might not be hugely favorable.

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1 hour ago, Myles said:

What is a "breakout year"?

Just curious.   Is it a significant improvement over last season?  Or is it have to do with a player being considered on of the best in the league.  

 

He had 4 sacks and 32 tackles (3 for a loss).   If he has 6 sacks and 60 tackles (7 for a loss), is that a breakout year?   Or would it take 10 sacks and 75 tackles (10 for a loss) to be a breakout year?

Great question.  IMHO, doubling up with 8 or more sacks would go as a breakout year for me.

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3 hours ago, Myles said:

What is a "breakout year"?

Just curious.   Is it a significant improvement over last season?  Or is it have to do with a player being considered on of the best in the league.  

 

He had 4 sacks and 32 tackles (3 for a loss).   If he has 6 sacks and 60 tackles (7 for a loss), is that a breakout year?   Or would it take 10 sacks and 75 tackles (10 for a loss) to be a breakout year?

My opinion is Breakout meaning he makes significant strides and puts up top numbers. 

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8 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think the analysis of Paye is that he is a bit of a short striding not-real-bendy type of pass rushing end.  Has superior effort and some strength, and decent agility, but not the physical traits of a Yannick or Mathis.   Can play the run well, but not the same body type as a pure pass rusher that's going to get gawdy stats.

 

It seems that he will play most downs and will split time between RDE and LDE, so his numbers might be pretty high but his percentages might not be hugely favorable.

All three of the players you mentioned are 6-2, 250, give or a take 10 pounds. They're the same body type.

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13 hours ago, KelownaColtsFan said:

All three of the players you mentioned are 6-2, 250, give or a take 10 pounds. They're the same body type.

Maybe body type is not the right description.  Just by what I have read, Paye is not as bendy as the other two.

 

Freeney was bulkier than Mathis and was also not as bendy, but he had a spin move to compensate.

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On 6/22/2022 at 9:35 AM, Myles said:

What is a "breakout year"?

Just curious.   Is it a significant improvement over last season?  Or is it have to do with a player being considered on of the best in the league.  

 

He had 4 sacks and 32 tackles (3 for a loss).   If he has 6 sacks and 60 tackles (7 for a loss), is that a breakout year?   Or would it take 10 sacks and 75 tackles (10 for a loss) to be a breakout year?

Six and sixty would be a very solid season, but not a coming out party really.... He'd busy out with 8+ sacks imo.

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On 6/22/2022 at 6:35 AM, Myles said:

What is a "breakout year"?

Just curious.   Is it a significant improvement over last season?  Or is it have to do with a player being considered on of the best in the league.  

 

He had 4 sacks and 32 tackles (3 for a loss).   If he has 6 sacks and 60 tackles (7 for a loss), is that a breakout year?   Or would it take 10 sacks and 75 tackles (10 for a loss) to be a breakout year?


Fair question.   I think poster @Jackie Daytona has answered it pretty  well. 
 

6/50 + would be a good solid season.   But I think to reach break out status level we’re talking about 8 or more sacks.  And I think Kwity is capable of 8.   

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First round pick going into year two I'd say he should hit double digit sacks but what really matters is pressures.  It's pretty subjective but if you wanted an absolute I'd say to average the 10th edge in sacks the past few years and whatever that is call it your baseline of expectation.

 

But I don't think the Colts are thinking in terms of sacks.  They're thinking in terms of pressures in the pass game and in the run game how consistently can he set an edge that limits real estate in the backfield.

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Indianapolis Colts

Kwity Paye

DE · Year 2

Paye was already trending toward becoming a Pro Bowler after one season, and the addition of Yannick Ngakoue only helps him. Paye enters 2022 focused on building on the four-sack, 32-tackle foundation he established as a rookie, and the addition of Ngakoue to a defensive front that also already includes DeForest Buckner will give opposing offenses a lot more to worry about than just trying to limit the second-year edge rusher. It's fair to believe Matt Ryan's arrival might elevate one of his pass-catchers to new heights (Michael Pittman Jr., Mo Alie-Cox or Parris Campbell, perhaps), but history tells us it's more beneficial to pair effective edge rushers than expect one to do all the work on his own. Paye should see a boost, and it just might be enough to push him to the Pro Bowl.

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Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye flashed plenty of potential during his rookie season, and he’ll be looking to continue his development going into Year 2.

As Nick Shook of NFL.com listed a potential first-time Pro Bowler for each team, Paye was an easy selection as the Colts’ representative. Here’s what Shook had to say about Paye being a potential Pro Bowler in 2022:

Paye was already trending toward becoming a Pro Bowler after one season, and the addition of Yannick Ngakoue only helps him. Paye enters 2022 focused on building on the four-sack, 32-tackle foundation he established as a rookie, and the addition of Ngakoue to a defensive front that also already includes DeForest Buckner will give opposing offenses a lot more to worry about than just trying to limit the second-year edge rusher. It’s fair to believe Matt Ryan’s arrival might elevate one of his pass-catchers to new heights (Michael Pittman Jr., Mo Alie-Cox or Parris Campbell, perhaps), but history tells us it’s more beneficial to pair effective edge rushers than expect one to do all the work on his own. Paye should see a boost, and it just might be enough to push him to the Pro Bowl.

It’s hard to disagree with the notion considering the upside that Paye presents. We also listed him as a Colts player with the potential to be a Pro Bowler in 2022.

After registering four sacks in 2021, Paye will certainly have to increase that total. This is especially true when considering the talent at edge rusher throughout the AFC. But his skill set and fit in the new defense should give him the chance to make a run at becoming a Pro Bowler in his second season.

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