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Cynthia Frelund 2.0 Mock Draft


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Frelund does her mocks based on their model almost exclusively. I always find purely analytics based mocks very interesting. Of course I don't agree with some of their matches, but IMO it's useful for identifying potential gems and/or busts that the model has a specific differing "opinion" than the consensus. 

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1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

Color me impressed

 

Morgan Freeman Applause GIF by The Academy Awards

Yeah, I've been impressed whenever I've seen her on TV or listened to a podcast she was on. Seems to know her stuff. (Again, doesn't mean you have to agree with everything their model spits out, but... )

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I'm sure she's good at her job, which is analytics....

 

What she does not appear to be good at, is how analytics are properly used for the draft.    

 

This might be the biggest waste of time so far this draft season.

 

She gives Ojulari to the Colts because we need pass rush.      Gee, thanks!    With that kind of insight,  a Tibetan Monk, isolated from the world,  can do a better job than this.     Ugh!

 

If she can't even figure out the player isn't even a scheme fit for the Colts,  then her work is a waste.    My eyes rolled when I saw Slater,  who I love,  with the 2nd pick.      Come on.    Don't waste my time!

 

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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm sure she's good at her job, which is analytics....

 

What she does not appear to be good at, is how analytics are properly used for the draft.    

 

This might be the biggest waste of time so far this draft season.

 

She gives Ojulari to the Colts because we need pass rush.      Gee, thanks!    With that kind of insight,  a Tibetan Monk, isolated from the world,  can do a better job than this.     Ugh!

 

If she can't even figure out the player isn't even a scheme fit for the Colts,  then her work is a waste.    My eyes rolled when I saw Slater,  who I love,  with the 2nd pick.      Come on.    Don't waste my time!

 

Like I said the most Jets pick ever 

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

Frelund does her mocks based on their model almost exclusively. I always find purely analytics based mocks very interesting. Of course I don't agree with some of their matches, but IMO it's useful for identifying potential gems and/or busts that the model has a specific differing "opinion" than the consensus. 

And she even says that it is based on Win Shares, basically as she did for the Jets pick, Darnold is worth more in 2021 then Wilson will be, which makes sense just with Rookie Curve. I mean her's hasnt been as bad as some of them that actually make the pick. Data analytics are just fully based on the metrics not on fit nor scout play. It is just interesting to see as some said who may be higher than they are projected or who could bust out

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm sure she's good at her job, which is analytics....

 

What she does not appear to be good at, is how analytics are properly used for the draft.    

 

This might be the biggest waste of time so far this draft season.

 

She gives Ojulari to the Colts because we need pass rush.      Gee, thanks!    With that kind of insight,  a Tibetan Monk, isolated from the world,  can do a better job than this.     Ugh!

 

If she can't even figure out the player isn't even a scheme fit for the Colts,  then her work is a waste.    My eyes rolled when I saw Slater,  who I love,  with the 2nd pick.      Come on.    Don't waste my time!

 

 

It's an Analytics based mock draft take a chill pill, it's like when you see an all Pac-12 mock draft or All SEC mock draft obviously players are not gonna go there but it's fun to do and see how it turns out.

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50 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

It's an Analytics based mock draft take a chill pill, it's like when you see an all Pac-12 mock draft or All SEC mock draft obviously players are not gonna go there but it's fun to do and see how it turns out.

In my judgement this is precisely the kind of thing that gives analytics a bad name with some. 

Not all analytics are the same.  Some are good, some not so much.   Not all analytics are equal.   Some organizations do it better than others.  Some teams do it better than others.   I think she did an extremely bad job and posts that I see analyzing her work don't  seem to be aware that her work is seriously lacking.   
 

I don’t find anything she did much different than the mocks I see most every day on this website.   Doesn't her reason fir giving the Colts Ojulari sound more “need” based than analytics?   
 

I think she’s a good reporter.   I think this particular piece was very poor.  

 

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8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm sure she's good at her job, which is analytics....

 

What she does not appear to be good at, is how analytics are properly used for the draft.    

 

This might be the biggest waste of time so far this draft season.

 

She gives Ojulari to the Colts because we need pass rush.      Gee, thanks!    With that kind of insight,  a Tibetan Monk, isolated from the world,  can do a better job than this.     Ugh!

 

If she can't even figure out the player isn't even a scheme fit for the Colts,  then her work is a waste.    My eyes rolled when I saw Slater,  who I love,  with the 2nd pick.      Come on.    Don't waste my time!

 

I don't know why people think he doesn't fit our system. He's pretty much the prototype Ballard loves. Explosive, LONG(one of the longest DEs in this class 34 3/8" arms... this is longer than most OTs in the league)... He's not tall but I don't think it matters much. He's pretty much Ben Banogu physically... except longer... and with much more polish coming out of college than Banogu came into the league with):

 

 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

In my judgement this is precisely the kind of thing that gives analytics a bad name with some. 

Not all analytics are the same.  Some are good, some not so much.   Not all analytics are equal.   Some organizations do it better than others.  Some teams do it better than others.   I think she did an extremely bad job and posts that I see analyzing her work don't  seem to be aware that her work is seriously lacking.   

IMO people not understanding what specific piece of analytics does and how it's used and ignoring specific descriptions of what in this case this mock is supposed to do, is what gives analytics bad name. In huge part of this type of discussions it's not the fault of the analyst, but fault of the public not having open mind and trying to understand what is being attempted and what the scope of it is(it's good for some things, but not for other). She pretty much starts off the jump saying this not an attempt to predict what teams will do, but rather what their model spits out as best fits to maximize the win probability in year 1 considering both the players available AND the roster construction of the teams(i.e. there will be some need-based component there - for example an OT for OT needy team will be more valuable than QB if that team already has a QB that's projected to have some reasonable production and not expected to bump up the win-total in year 1). (now from then on, she bears no responsibility for people not reading that description)

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I don’t find anything she did much different than the mocks I see most every day on this website.   Doesn't her reason fir giving the Colts Ojulari sound more “need” based than analytics?

It's part need because part of their model accounts for needs(i.e. it's year 1 mock and it's based on what will improve your team for that one year - thus... if you don't have high level players at DE, giving you a DE that's expected to produce early maximizes that year 1 expected win total).

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I think she’s a good reporter.   I think this particular piece was very poor.  

 

I'm not sure I agree with this assessment. I don't know... maybe she could have done better job explaning their process and model so people would understand better, but then again... I had no problem understanding what they are doing so not sure the problem is with them, rather than with people just skipping the descriptions and going straight to the picks... :dunno:

 

edit: Oh, BTW about Slater. I'm not sure what they are using as their input for player quality and projected production, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Lance Zierlein's grades and this is why Slater probably makes it to no. 2 over players like Sewell - just... Lance has him ranked higher.... so the model takes that grade and plugs him in as the player that will improve the Jets the most in year 1. 

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9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

In my judgement this is precisely the kind of thing that gives analytics a bad name with some. 

Not all analytics are the same.  Some are good, some not so much.   Not all analytics are equal.   Some organizations do it better than others.  Some teams do it better than others.   I think she did an extremely bad job and posts that I see analyzing her work don't  seem to be aware that her work is seriously lacking.   
 

I don’t find anything she did much different than the mocks I see most every day on this website.   Doesn't her reason fir giving the Colts Ojulari sound more “need” based than analytics?   
 

I think she’s a good reporter.   I think this particular piece was very poor.  

 

 

I mean did you read the article? Heres a quote from it 

Quote

I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.

 

The Analytics draft is not using scheme fit, and is more of a piece to draw interest when the news is slow in the NFL, a good comparison is the All pac 12 mock draft I saw yesterday, its interesting to see but is it trying to say those players will be drafted in the first round or by that team, no its not. I don't think it's a poor piece because it's doing what it is suppose to do get people talking about the draft.

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5 hours ago, stitches said:

edit: Oh, BTW about Slater. I'm not sure what they are using as their input for player quality and projected production, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Lance Zierlein's grades and this is why Slater probably makes it to no. 2 over players like Sewell - just... Lance has him ranked higher.... so the model takes that grade and plugs him in as the player that will improve the Jets the most in year 1. 

 

This probably belongs on the Daniel Jeremiah thread but

 

yeah I was surprised to see Slater move ahead of Sewell on Jeremiah's top 50

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50 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

This probably belongs on the Daniel Jeremiah thread but

 

yeah I was surprised to see Slater move ahead of Sewell on Jeremiah's top 50

I think he was ahead of Sewell in the previous one too. Him and Lance are the only top analysts I've seen with that order. I personally think it's kind of bonkers and I would take Sewell 10 out of 10 times. 

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10 hours ago, stitches said:

I don't know why people think he doesn't fit our system. He's pretty much the prototype Ballard loves. Explosive, LONG(one of the longest DEs in this class 34 3/8" arms... this is longer than most OTs in the league)... He's not tall but I don't think it matters much. He's pretty much Ben Banogu physically... except longer... and with much more polish coming out of college than Banogu came into the league with):

 

 

Thank you for this.   I was not aware of the Ojulari numbers from his Pro Day.   It does look like he might fit the Ballard physical profile more than I thought.   I’m just not sure he fits the playing scheme profile.  To me, DE and OLB are not the same, even if you call it Edge. 

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2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Thank you for this.   I was not aware of the Ojulari numbers from his Pro Day.   It does look like he might fit the Ballard physical profile more than I thought.   I’m just not sure he fits the playing scheme profile.  To me, DE and OLB are not the same, even if you call it Edge. 

Stick to your guns. He might fit a physical side but he does not fit Eberflus’ defense. The biggest thing about Ben Banogu not progressing was because he was a healthy scratch multiple games. Why?? Because he doesn’t fit the scheme. I think Ballard has learned to look at key traits but at least talk with Flus and figure out the potential of a fit. Just my opinion obviously but that’s my point of view. 

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27 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Stick to your guns. He might fit a physical side but he does not fit Eberflus’ defense. The biggest thing about Ben Banogu not progressing was because he was a healthy scratch multiple games. Why?? Because he doesn’t fit the scheme. I think Ballard has learned to look at key traits but at least talk with Flus and figure out the potential of a fit. Just my opinion obviously but that’s my point of view. 

That's not why he's been a healthy scratch. It's because he was incredibly raw entering the league and wasn't coached in college... The Colts thought they can coach him up and he just hasn't made the progress technically that's needed. Nothing to do with his fit. He would be bad in any system, because he's not a good football player... (yet?). 

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46 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Stick to your guns. He might fit a physical side but he does not fit Eberflus’ defense. The biggest thing about Ben Banogu not progressing was because he was a healthy scratch multiple games. Why?? Because he doesn’t fit the scheme. I think Ballard has learned to look at key traits but at least talk with Flus and figure out the potential of a fit. Just my opinion obviously but that’s my point of view. 


Sorry....   but I have no idea where you got that BB is not a scheme fit?   Nor do I know why you’d think that Ballard and Flus don’t talk?   Huh?   Where did THAT come from?!?  During this time of year, I’d guess that talk nearly everyday. 
 

BB is the most raw talent among the DL.  Might be the most raw player on the the 53.  He was in desperate need of a full off-season of NFL coaching last year.  And got very little due to Covid.  That they sat him down was disappointing,  but perhaps not that surprising given his unique circumstance and the weirdness of the Covid season.  
 

That’s my view from nearly 2,000 miles away. 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

That's not why he's been a healthy scratch. It's because he was incredibly raw entering the league and wasn't coached in college... The Colts thought they can coach him up and he just hasn't made the progress technically that's needed. Nothing to do with his fit. He would be bad in any system, because he's not a good football player... (yet?). 

Fair enough. I could get on that bandwagon. 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:


Sorry....   but I have no idea where you got that BB is not a scheme fit?   Nor do I know why you’d think that Ballard and Flus don’t talk?   Huh?   Where did THAT come from?!?  During this time of year, I’d guess that talk nearly everyday. 
 

BB is the most raw talent among the DL.  Might be the most raw player on the the 53.  He was in desperate need of a full off-season of NFL coaching last year.  And got very little due to Covid.  That they sat him down was disappointing,  but perhaps not that surprising given his unique circumstance and the weirdness of the Covid season.  
 

That’s my view from nearly 2,000 miles away. 

I’m not nor am I saying Ballard doesn’t talk with his coaches. That pick could have been pushed by Ballard where as Flus was not in agreement. Regardless that’s all just speculation in my mind. 
 

Yes BB was raw and showed nothing to warrant that pick or that he would be a good fit for us. He showed that he could play 3-4 OLB or possibly 4-3 end but yet what we need is a true rusher and he was never that in college. He had no bend at all and outside of just trying to punch and shoot a gap he was easily stopped. A pro level Tackle will eat him up easy. And it shows. I was never a fan of this pick and still am not. I am fine with Ballard wanting to give him time because you never know but again Ojulari to me has length but looks smithing similar to me. Not a great off the edge guy like we need. Sorry for the rambling. 

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2 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

Stick to your guns. He might fit a physical side but he does not fit Eberflus’ defense. The biggest thing about Ben Banogu not progressing was because he was a healthy scratch multiple games. Why?? Because he doesn’t fit the scheme. I think Ballard has learned to look at key traits but at least talk with Flus and figure out the potential of a fit. Just my opinion obviously but that’s my point of view. 

Also I think I choose to read into a few things to much. Sorry for the confusion. 

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23 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I’m not nor am I saying Ballard doesn’t talk with his coaches. That pick could have been pushed by Ballard where as Flus was not in agreement. Regardless that’s all just speculation in my mind. 
 

Yes BB was raw and showed nothing to warrant that pick or that he would be a good fit for us. He showed that he could play 3-4 OLB or possibly 4-3 end but yet what we need is a true rusher and he was never that in college. He had no bend at all and outside of just trying to punch and shoot a gap he was easily stopped. A pro level Tackle will eat him up easy. And it shows. I was never a fan of this pick and still am not. I am fine with Ballard wanting to give him time because you never know but again Ojulari to me has length but looks smithing similar to me. Not a great off the edge guy like we need. Sorry for the rambling. 

 

No need to apologize,  and I certainly don't think you were rambling.    But I'd say this about BB....  for a guy who was in a weird system at TCU,  he had 17 sacks in two years.   I think it was 8.5 each year.   And he reportedly tested extremely well.  I mean,  really, really well.    

 

So, he was a project.  See if you can find a raw, unpolished diamond and see if you can't polish him up.   Was he over-drafted?  Probably.   Likely Lewis too.    But it might just be those guys were the last guys that Ballard thought had potential for what he's looking for.    So, it was likely them,  or nobody for those drafts.    If you believe in your development staff,  then you gamble on upside.    Nobody needed more coaching in 2020 than Banogu.   And likely no one was impacted by a Covid season than BB was.   Sucks for us.    I'm hoping we see more of the guy we want and need to see in 21.    He's really in the spotlight.  He's got to shore more promise as Lewis did last year.    He really needs to step up.    Otherwise,  he risks being traded late on Day 3 as Quincy Wilson was.    That will be  sign....   traded equals bust.   Not traded means we will believe.

 

I'm hoping for the best....

 

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17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

No need to apologize,  and I certainly don't think you were rambling.    But I'd say this about BB....  for a guy who was in a weird system at TCU,  he had 17 sacks in two years.   I think it was 8.5 each year.   And he reportedly tested extremely well.  I mean,  really, really well.    

 

So, he was a project.  See if you can find a raw, unpolished diamond and see if you can't polish him up.   Was he over-drafted?  Probably.   Likely Lewis too.    But it might just be those guys were the last guys that Ballard thought had potential for what he's looking for.    So, it was likely them,  or nobody for those drafts.    If you believe in your development staff,  then you gamble on upside.    Nobody needed more coaching in 2020 than Banogu.   And likely no one was impacted by a Covid season than BB was.   Sucks for us.    I'm hoping we see more of the guy we want and need to see in 21.    He's really in the spotlight.  He's got to shore more promise as Lewis did last year.    He really needs to step up.    Otherwise,  he risks being traded late on Day 3 as Quincy Wilson was.    That will be  sign....   traded equals bust.   Not traded means we will believe.

 

I'm hoping for the best....

 

I agree about the potential of upside and I definitely hope he has a huge improvement this next season. I hope everyone does though obviously as a Colts fan. I will say I liked the Lewis pick because I did see the potential of a good Sheard/Houston replacement (mainly Sheard though based on sack production). A good edge setter that still has potential to get inside. I never see him getting more than 9 in a season which would be huge. I am looking forward to a hopeful healthy year for Turay who can be that speed rusher we need. Regardless I see us grabbing someone and I hope for good production no matter what. I appreciate the good conversation. It’s been a slow day today. 

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6 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I agree about the potential of upside and I definitely hope he has a huge improvement this next season. I hope everyone does though obviously as a Colts fan. I will say I liked the Lewis pick because I did see the potential of a good Sheard/Houston replacement (mainly Sheard though based on sack production). A good edge setter that still has potential to get inside. I never see him getting more than 9 in a season which would be huge. I am looking forward to a hopeful healthy year for Turay who can be that speed rusher we need. Regardless I see us grabbing someone and I hope for good production no matter what. I appreciate the good conversation. It’s been a slow day today. 

If BB ever became a 4-6 sack a year guy, I’d be thrilled!   And if Turay ever became a 6-8 sack guy I’d pop champagne, and I don’t even drink!   
 

Muhammed feels like a possible 4 sack guy, and I’d gladly take it he can do it year after year. 
 

Im always here and always happy to talk Colts or NFL or anything you’d like....

 

NCF 

 

 

 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

If BB ever became a 4-6 sack a year guy, I’d be thrilled!   And if Turay ever became a 6-8 sack guy I’d pop champagne, and I don’t even drink!   

These were just awful selections in the 2nd Rd.

 

I would never draft players that high, who can’t play 3 downs. 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

If BB ever became a 4-6 sack a year guy, I’d be thrilled!   And if Turay ever became a 6-8 sack guy I’d pop champagne, and I don’t even drink!   
 

Muhammed feels like a possible 4 sack guy, and I’d gladly take it he can do it year after year. 
 

Im always here and always happy to talk Colts or NFL or anything you’d like....

 

NCF 

 

 

 

I would be happy with those but would hope for much more but that’s just me. Muhammad could become pretty solid in my eyes. I like Rochelle as well. Between those two I am hoping for say 11-13 sacks (wishful thinking). Turay I hope can be a 8+ guy and get consistent. BB I would be thrilled as well with that. Lewis can improve as the snaps increase IMO. Add a new face like Turner from Houston and I would be real happy. 

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2 minutes ago, MPStack said:

These were just awful selections in the 2nd Rd.

 

I would never draft players that high, who can’t play 3 downs. 
 

 

Well...   I think Lewis has always been thought of as a potential 3 down guy. Just because he hasn’t done it yet, doesn’t mean he never will.  Think Jerry Hughes.   He’s the cautionary tale for all of us. 
 

And if you think someone can give 4-8 sacks, I think drafting Turay at pick 52 was and is perfectly fine.  His problems have far more to do with injury and less to do with ability.   
 

We had four second round picks that year.  Our first two start and are better than we expected and hoped for.  Bout second two were all about pass rush and the D-line.  3 downs or not, I’m fine with that. 
 

Your mileage may very. 

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3 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I would be happy with those but would hope for much more but that’s just me. Muhammad could become pretty solid in my eyes. I like Rochelle as well. Between those two I am hoping for say 11-13 sacks (wishful thinking). Turay I hope can be a 8+ guy and get consistent. BB I would be thrilled as well with that. Lewis can improve as the snaps increase IMO. Add a new face like Turner from Houston and I would be real happy. 


I’ll tell you my favorite Rochelle story that he told since arriving.   He was at Notre Dame with Q.   He knew Nelson was going to attract lots of NFL scouts.   So whenever the scouts were there, he made it his business to make sure he went up against QN in all the drills and practices.   By watching QN, they’d also be watching him as well.

 

Now THAT’S my kind of guy!   What an attitude!   Good on him!   He likely has made himself millions of dollars just by doing that!  Very, very impressive!   I’m rooting for him! 
 

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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


I’ll tell you my favorite Rochelle story that he told since arriving.   He was at Notre Dame with Q.   He knew Nelson was going to attract lots of NFL scouts.   So whenever the scouts were there, he made it his business to make sure he went up against QN in all the drills and practices.   By watching QN, they’d also be watching him as well.

 

Now THAT’S my kind of guy!   What an attitude!   Good on him!   He likely has made himself millions of dollars just by doing that!  Very, very impressive!   I’m rooting for him! 
 

I never knew that and love that story. He already has that fire that I want from my d line. 

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18 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

If BB ever became a 4-6 sack a year guy, I’d be thrilled!   And if Turay ever became a 6-8 sack guy I’d pop champagne, and I don’t even drink!   
 

Muhammed feels like a possible 4 sack guy, and I’d gladly take it he can do it year after year. 
 

Im always here and always happy to talk Colts or NFL or anything you’d like....

 

NCF 

 

 

 

 

 BB has some power, and projected as a hustle guy.
 On tape i didn't see any burst off the snap nor above average bend. lol
 His good potential as an edge setter, and 6+ sack guy made him a buy in Ballards eye it seems. 
 Some years back the Cowboys drafted Anthony Spencer who BB physically reminds of. Spencer took a couple years to get up to snuff but he became a really good edge setter, made a LOT of tackles, and got 6 sacks a year.
 By his FA year he had 9 sacks and got a very good contract. I'm rooting for BB to have this path. 

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